Horse Antepost
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W1lliam H1LL's "The Jumps"
W1lliam H1LL's "The Jumps"
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Replies: 209
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Simonsig will do a Riverside Theatre; he will take both the Ascot races in February on route to the Ryan Air and 60+ points
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Sire De Grugy wont be rushed and will reappear in April for the Bat 365 Celebration chase.
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Mullins said: "Annie (Power) will walk until Christmas and be checked again and then hopefully be back to full training.
"(There is) no fracture. Just a stress reaction." Mullins is hopeful she will return to Prestbury Park in March and has not ruled out giving her a prep run. He said: "We hope to make it (to Cheltenham). "If we can we will run before." Run before "10 points, 1 round fire for effect" The plot thickens...no return fire, the guns have fell silent.....35 points for Annie |
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"Stress reaction" oh and Annie's fine too...
Some people have been had over here! |
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Blasting your luck once again JOCI, too many Allez's in your combo's
Two thirds of the leaderboard put him in too! |
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Most of the entries with Annie in also have Sign Of Vic in too, so were probably entered earlier in the week, could be a blessing in disguise, known as the hidden luck in card circles!
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Any line containing Allez Colombieres is doomed, cannot win any of the two main prizes!
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Can you look at other people's entries online? It won't let me click on the leaderboard.
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No, not at all on the mark with % guessing. Had Allez Colombieres in just 10%, so not a big issue there. Although he was fav for the Supreme, he was still a 10/1 fav. Hardly the same as say Faugheen who is 2s for his race and who will likely take in another bonus race on the way to Chelt.
I think of the first 1200 or so we did, Annie Power was in 60%, but we took her out of all the remaining lists. We actually had a late change and only including More of That in 40%. That line is split with the QMCC, so think we ended up 40% MOT, 20% Briar Hill, 20% Uxizandre, 20% Balder Succes. I do get the feeling that all is not quite well with Simonsig, and there's no guarantee he'd come back the same as well. His last run was a two length beating of Baily Green, almost two years ago, so not too worried. I see he has come right back in the machine for the KG though, about 15 now, whereas when I made the decision to cut him he was out to 100.  Yeah had Vautor in a huge amount. Something like 70%. Huge amount of Don Poli as well, as we thought he'd go for the four miler, and he'll surely be a warm order for that. The New One is not in 100%, we've got him in 70%. He is obviously the one for the Xmas Hurdle, but might not even run there if he does come out of Chelt well enough. |
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So you did 1200 entries then rushed up another 800 after Fridays midday announcement that Abnie was lame.
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No we just changed our approach after a piece of big news. Don't really know what your point or agenda is. What are you accusing me of? Why would it matter anyway if I had done that?
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Your money your choice, but in much the same way you surmised that Simonsig is all not well, I had the notion that all was not well with Annie, moreover the truth, I dont believe she is injured at all, I think they have defused all the talk of her, and that they had already plotted her season.
I think you have a very good chance of being in the mix come March but 4 grands worth of entries on a 75/1 poke, With only two main prizes is a bit chancy. I also think that your notion is wide of the mark in thinking that the people who do these ten to follow type competitions wont know the Irish angle inside out, especially with so few selections to choose from. The other crazy thing about this particular comp, bare in mind the limited number of selections to choose from and also the small pool of bankers that everyone puts in their perms, it becomes more like a 5/6 to follow. Leading me to believe that there is almost certainly going to be a lot of duplicate entries, and they (WHill) draw out the bag for prizes under such circumstances. You can theoretically win the comp and end up out of pocket. You have obviously put together a syndicate so the cost per person is smaller and your chances of winning increased but never the less your exponetial chances are still ultimately pitched against the entire field, and thats opproximately 75/1. |
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If you dont mind me asking; how many individual horses did you cover.
And who do you see as a real dark horse. |
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I see many of your points. Yes, the people putting most effort into this competition will obviously know the Irish angle, but I don't think they will comprise the majority of the entries. Most of them will be shop punters who don't really know a huge amount about the horses and targets, and who won't have a) Spent anywhere close to the amount of time we did on formulating a perming system, or b) Have thought very extensively about which options are best. I think our edge in this is much bigger than in the TTF.
The rules about a dead heat are absolutely shocking, I agree. What I can only hope is that (if we did well and were in contention), that we could do a deal with whoever else it was to split the money. Again your point about bankers is another huge positive for us. We had a banker (unusual for our approach to this type of thing), which was Irving, but he wouldn't have been even close to the most popular selection in the competition, and he certainly should have been, being odds on for a bonus race the day the competition started. I reckon that Simonsig and Sprinter would have been two of the most chosen horses in the comp, but we were only planning on having 10% of each, so when the news came out, we thought that we may as well scrap them entirely. If one of those two does really well, we were very unlikely to win anyway, as they would have been so popular that we would have been competing against so many others. However, where our large amount of entries comes into it's own, is that since we have so many, we have no need to say, have the New One in every one. We're covered on others for those races, so if he gets crocked, we still retain a large number of entries without him. We ended up covering 43 horses. Most covered was Irving 100%, then The New One 70%, Faugheen, Jezki and Vautour all 60%, Annie Power was originally a 60%, but downgraded to about a 30%. Un de Sceaux a 50%, and Don Poli ended up as about 55%. In terms of dark horses, we didn't really have any really dark ones. I thought Jollyallan could be a bit of a skinner if he runs in the Betfair Hurdle. Gilgamboa is one who is likely to have very few entries. Tell Us More unlikely to have that many entries as well, ditto Sgt Reckless, who I really fancy for the Arkle. |
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Did we dodge the bullet
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I've joined the mini league, but can't see how to view it.
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i cant even log in
will update |
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Go The Cossack!
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Don and moved into 17th overall
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Good start! - 41st is the best we can do. I know it's early days, but nice to get points on the board.
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I think if you ignore ordering based on stable number it would be joint 10th.
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Gordon Elliot said of Don Cossack post race;"I'll have to talk to Michael and Eddie O'Leary, but if I had my way he wouldn't run until Cheltenham and go straight for the Ryanair.
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T2F your on there now
ANYONE ELSE WANNA JOIN motties minions |
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password
thejumps123 |
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Ladbrokes World Hurdle hero More Of That will undergo a wind operation following his disappointing return to action at Newbury last month, and has less chance of making a return this season than Annie Power!
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The New One has frightened everything away in the Stan James Saturday, could be a match between him and Faugheen.
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No Faugheen at Cheltenham saturday. Willie Mullins has nominated the William Hill Christmas Hurdle (bonus race) at Kempton on Boxing Day as the likely target for his exciting charge. Paul Nicholls has nominated the same race for Irvings next sorte.
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Simonsig could yet line up in the King George. Nicky Henderson's assistant trainer Charlie Morlock believes there is a "very good chance" Simonsig will make the race, the grey has been slowly nursed back to full health by the Seven Barrows team, but faces a race against time to be ready for the Festive highlight. Morlock said: "He's still got plenty to do, it's a steep upward curve but if we don't get any kinks or slips on the way upwards there's still a very good chance."
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What did Ricci have to say about running plans for Faugheen over the Christmas season? "Christmas time is going to be another re-match between Hurrcane Fly and Jezki [at Leopardstown] which I'm fine with, but as a second-season novice do I really want to be taking those guys on?"
He said, "Do I really want to be taking on any experienced hurdlers like Paul's horse [Irving]? The Chirstmas Hurdle seems a good race for us here, but there is a really good alternative at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, the race which Annie Power won last year and he would only have to carry a half-penalty for his Grade One win. We'll see how the race is looking. What he's up against is going to be the most important thing." If Nigel says he's happy and we know he's happy and he says The New One is going too, then they will go the Annie route. They seem very anxious not to give Faugheen a hard race until its absolutely necessary. |
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The recent news that Annie Power will take it steady until the Spring and More Of That must undergo a wind operation in the new year, followed by a course of ante biotics that will leave his chances of resuming this year virtually nil, leaves players fingers crossed at least in hope if nothing else. I add to the hope list the suspiciously conspicuous non existent utterings of Flemenstar, Le Rocher and Sir Des Champs. The less hope and more soap of the will they won't they brigade of Simonsig, Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre.
Sadly there's the no hopers list of the fatally departed; Allez Colombieres, Oscar Whisky, Trifollium, and Cockney Sparrow since the competition started, RIP. The less obvious demise of Valdez no longer appearing in Alan Kings horses in training list after his terrible first time out fall early last month, leads me to the most us must have known Solwhit was fatally injured before the competition started, with the exception of William Hill who left him in the line up. I thought it was common knowledge that, although not fatally injured but injured never the less the inclusion of Benefficient was unfair and dually trapped at least one person, non other than the outright leader no less. It gets thicker and thicker! |
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The New One takes me into 5th overall
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How many points?
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The overall leader has 13 points more than me but I have Faugheen more than anyone above.
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3 points behind Rest of UK monthly, lots of dangers lurking but excited all the same.
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Good start - 93 best for us so far. Not too far off the pace.
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Take it you have Faugheen, Vautour, More Of That, Annie if you entered before Friday. Allez Colombieres because I can predict your perm style having studied all your entries from last years TTF. Who's your Whisper this year.
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Yes, we have those. Our next list on 83 has Cole Harden instead of More Of That, and Don Poli.
I think the misfurtune affecting More Of That, Annie Power and Allez Colombieres will affect most people in some way or another. |
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My group has five winners from five runners.
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“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
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Guys, how can you view other people's entries on the website from an iPad? Thanks.
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