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St Leger Doncaster 13th Sept

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Replies: 121
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Sep 14 16:08
Well said the clerk.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Sep 14 16:43
They have both backed themselves into a corner really. CoC can't water due to his previous comments, and he seems adamant he wont anyway. And Varian has basically said KH won't run unless they do so will look a plonker if he lets him takes his chance. Scenes.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 11 Sep 14 17:08
yep, the clerk's comments seem about right.

As pointed out above, the evidence that he needs a lot of give underfoot is flimsy to say the least - he ran his best race in the Derby and ran perfectly adequately in the Eclipse over a trip which is probably less than optimum.

I wonder if the owner might intervene - particularly as his father's Coolmore representation appears underwhelming.Even if they don't water, he is not being asked to race on anything other than normal summer flat racing ground - they need to get on with it, they have plenty to gain and little to lose as the ground will be plenty safe enough.

I still think he'll run but I suppose we'll have Varian walking the track before racing and then waiting for jockey reports from the earlier races, before making a decision either way...not ideal for the racing public.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 11 Sep 14 18:51
After learning of Varian's words, Duncan said: "Jamie Spencer has walked the straight and he still says that it is no firmer than good.

"We do not intend to water tonight and the forecast is for it to be cloudier and cooler tomorrow.

TONIGHT being the operative word. We need somebody on course watch. Water and market changes proportionally and I would like a slice of the action.
By:
Graeme83
When: 11 Sep 14 20:32
The horse has nowhere else to go, and we know what the derby ground was when kingston hill came second. These ground games are a nonsense. Varian comes across as a bit of a wanka.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Sep 14 20:50
Bit harsh Graeme. Think he is just feeling the pressure and desperately needs/wants to run in the race.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 11 Sep 14 20:58
If the next 2day forecast is right (weather) the fav will prob be taken out.
Its going to be near g/f for Sat, but to get the fav to stand its ground they will prob water 2moro night.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 11 Sep 14 21:13
Trainers should not dictate the ground as the meeting is underway... its unfair to opposition... Varian should man up and either run his horse or not... not apply pressure... is as simple as that...
By:
Graeme83
When: 11 Sep 14 22:46
Ain't harsh at all sintonian. The day the ground gets changed for a 11/4 fav is the day we should all chuck it in. Too many trainers get wankarish over the going, which shows disregard for the trainers who may prefer different ground, but just get on with it.
By:
the bairn
When: 11 Sep 14 23:18
I must have been mad, I just bet a horse tonight in the [day of the race market] then realised, if Kingston Hill doesn't run there will be a 22% reduction factor plus commission, my 20/1 shot would be about 10/1 if it won. cheers.Cry
By:
the bairn
When: 11 Sep 14 23:24
what about coincidence betting, when Dunfermline won the Leger, it was the Queens Jubilee, when Party Politics won the National there was a general election,  I wonder with all the fuss about a referendum if Scotland will win the Leger, NO THANKS, too much of an improbable. cheers.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Sep 14 07:15
Varian is pathetic - end of.Laugh
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 12 Sep 14 07:51
Is the COC wavering However, on Friday morning Duncan repeated that his current plans did not involve watering, although he left the door open to a rethink later in the day.
"We currently have no plans to water but it's not being ruled out," Duncan said.

1.01 he does.
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Sep 14 08:15
Fancy Snow Sky even more now, with saver on Windshear don't think will be 8/1 tomorrow.
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Sep 14 08:17
And Bollox to Varian he as bad as Henderson!
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 12 Sep 14 10:15
I am a backer of the horse but agree the trainer has done himself no favours when you look at the clock of the Epsom run and the ground conditions that day that was his best performance by a mile. If it is to be the third time the horse is pulled out it must be some kind of record.
By:
Steamship
When: 12 Sep 14 15:17
I cannot have Windshear to win, just based on the stables lack of classy middle distance + horses. Not decided if or where my money will go but Romsdal, Kings Fete and Forever Now look overpriced
By:
BJG
When: 12 Sep 14 15:52
Kingston Hill definitely runs - Varian
By:
1st time poster
When: 12 Sep 14 17:48
if you,d have interviewed varian after the racing post trophy and said your horse is a slow ground plodder he,d have got all indignant and start giving it,no he,s gone just as well at home on good ground and it might suit him better,not many class horses like it heavy blah,blah,Laugh
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Sep 14 09:30
Kingston Hill for me 2day.
Hopefully the home str ground is not 2 quick for him.
Think he will stay the trip fine & is the class horse of the race.
Couple of plays on him with Fred & Stan (£50 max each) this morn 9/2 & 4/1.
Gd luck with your bets lads Cool
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 14 11:27
I agree with kinscem, a lot of chaff in the race. One good thing about Varian's ground statements is they've given the impression the horse needs some cut and have helped to make him a decent price. I don't know for sure if he'll be as good over the longer trip. Actually I've never seen any pedigree research that gives more than a ball park area estimate, maybe some people's work can improve on that but they're keeping it to themselves. As a 2yo Kingston Hill always looked very much a stayer and has continued to do so as a 3yo, not the most intricate stamina analysis but it's good enough for me. In my view, if he runs his race the rest need to improve to beat him. He's only had 3 runs this year and has been rested since early June, which I see as beneficial to his chances. On the other hand, with no recent form to judge him on it has to be taken on trust that he's still the horse he was earlier. All things considered I think around the 7/2 mark is a very fair price he runs his race and the others don't improve past him.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 14 11:28
*kincsem
By:
Steamship
When: 13 Sep 14 11:36
I've gone for Alex My Boy @18 no worries over the trip, jockey makes few mistakes
By:
A_T
When: 13 Sep 14 12:14
Surely Odeon's going to behave himself one day - maybe today?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Sep 14 12:35
this race really does lack depth class wise...

kingston hill like others are saying really is a big price today, my main concern with him is his ability to stay this far but he has always looked a stayer really in his run style but i do have major reservations myself about him getting home...mastercraftsman first bunch of three year olds haven't produced much stayers so far and it is still to be proved how his progeny will get on over staying trips but i have major reservations in this regard for the horse, however you are certainly getting the right price to find out and he is the best on ratings but his lack of a prep and stamina reservations, add to what i think about the derby, mean i have to pass him over as much as I feel I should be backing him

some of the prices on some of the horses here really are astounding imo - kings fete at 10-1 is a shocker on a achievement on the track and i'd want double that to find out about him, he has also been keen in the past...i have the same feelings in regards the price about windshear who if we take that strict line of form from goodwood at face value on a line through the progressive snow sky, we could give him a chance but really snow sky was very coltish at goodwood and his class still saw him through, i fully expect him to confirm form with windshear who looks progressive himself but at a level imo that leaves him plenty to find to win a race of this standard...i must be missing something with scotland at 22-1, he must of suddenly inherited some ability from somewhere because he certainly hasn't shown much on the track

forever now is likeable as is alex my boy both are progressing well as much as like both surely they have to much to find

i have a few stamina reservations about snow sky but imo he is the best colt in this, so am backing him and the horse who has been completely overlooked at the odds is hartnell who looked to run up the back of horses in the voltigeur and loose his stride pattern...i can forgive him that and he wasn't knocked about - before that he was most progressive...he does however come with a slight warning in regards the trainer, who may of already cooked him for the season but we are getting the right price at around 20-1 and if he can return to his early season form he has to have a decent chance...kingston hill has to be respected and all the others are fair at just a muddling level...tricky race so good luck if your having a decent bet, but imo it doesn't warrant it...senockian star on the other hand does
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Sep 14 12:43
Somewhat looks overpriced to me, Sire has already produced a Leger winner and might get a nice tow from Odeon today as opposed to having to make it... so him ew at 40/1 (4 places).

...and a win bet on Kingston Hill, ground no issue, runs like he'll stay, Mastercraftsman only second season sire I believe so his Stamina Index probably a bit misleading at this stage...

Tricky race though, hard to rule many of them out completely ... good luck!
By:
Sandown
When: 13 Sep 14 13:24
Kingston Hill i sover-priced at 4.5 or so. he is a G1 winner, gave Australia something to think about in the Derby on ground that wasn't soft, and is well in on form & time figs. The trip is an unknown but he looked as though he would stay at Epsom. He is lightly raced this year and his poorish runs were over distances too short for him. Why he ran in the Eclipse i don't understand. A question. Could any of today's opposition have run Australia so close? Doubt it very much.

In fact. I think he is good value at 40/1 to run in the Arc, a race where conditions should suit.

Just a few lengths behind at Epsom, I'll save on Romsdal.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Sep 14 15:00
he is a top jockey - another lovely ride from the lad...vwd chaps
By:
JOCI Club
When: 13 Sep 14 15:02
Joined:
13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 21,863 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Kingston Hill has run more like a stayer than anything else to my eyes. Maybe that's why I prefer the jumps.


Maybe I'm not such a bad judge after all!
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 13 Sep 14 16:15
Oh Kingston hill you beauty, a real good horse who has been given a terrible campaign but came good in the end. KH goes on any ground regardless of what the RV says, hope they keep him in training.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 13 Sep 14 16:21
very nice Sandown btw did you have a forecast?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 13 Sep 14 16:28
I don't think the Arc will play to his strengths, and think he will get tapped for toe coming round the final bend in the Arc. Today's trip was just what he needed to grind up through the gears.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Sep 14 17:47
Very gd performance from K H 2day Cool
Thought for a few moments he had given him a bit to do, but he got it right & he came home strong to land the final Classic of the season Cool
Not an Arc horse tho & unless the ground is soft he would be winning a G1 over 1m4f imo.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Sep 14 17:49
"not be winning" i should say. Wink
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Sep 14 17:51
not seen the race yet but I wonder if Varian will look to appoint a new stable jockey or continue to try to use Atzeni as much as he can?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Sep 14 17:56
nice double for the Mastercraftsman progeny Shocked
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Sep 14 17:58
Moore is just diff class imo Cool
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 14 Sep 14 08:59
Assume both Sintonian and Judorick traded their positions. You know it makes sense.
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Sep 14 07:41
why aftertime like that Felt?

I backed Windshear ante-post at 20/1, I'm not a trader/layer.

Missed the race so not sure if luck played a part in Windshear missing a place by a neck.

wd KH backers.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 Sep 14 07:55
Had a dream unimpeded run along the rail all the way but couldn`t cope with the speedier types at the business end. Probably his best ever performance.
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