Horse Antepost
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Was very impressed by Noozhoh Canarias' Guineas performance. Set a gruelling pace & couldn't quite see it out. Must go close down in trip against these. I'm gonna chance Aljamaaher one more time though. Will get a hard pace to aim at, Hannagan will be a bit shrewder with the ride this time. Looks locked on for a place at least.
Was very impressed by Noozhoh Canarias' Guineas performance. Set a gruelling pace & couldn't quite see it out. Must go close down in trip against these. I'm gonna chance Aljamaaher one more time though. Will get a hard pace to aim at, Hannagan will be a bit shrewder with the ride this time. Looks locked on for a place at least.
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Backed Due Diligence last time but I'm laying both him and Slade Power in the view that both had a hard race. I've no idea what will win but would be no surprise to see them underperform here and hopefully I can get a result.
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I used to go every year for ca. 10 years when it was on Thursday. I have not been for ca. 5 years now.
I always used to look closely at the 3YO's and backed Stravinski & Mozart ante post when they won. I used to like looking at what ThunderRoad suggests, i.e. A horse that was prominent in a Guineas and did not get the mile. I'll run my ratings tonight and report back. Records In the last 46 years 22 3YO 16 4YO 7 5YO 1 6YO |
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Tough race to call imo .. several of those who ran at Ascot last time have reasons to think they could win on Saturday. Then there are a couple of sneaky outsiders and the Group 1 5f horses.
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I'll wait for final decs and draw but one thing I am struggling with is why Astaire is around twice the price of his stable mate.Astaire beat him fair and square over 6f in Middle Park (albeit on Rowley not July) - it also looks like Callan is going to ride which is good given they're 3/4 together - reading between the lines it looks like Hot Streak might not necessarily take part unless they get a bit of rain.
I can see Rex Imperator running well back at 6f and given stable form (though fact he was withdrawn lame at w/e is a bit offputting). Having said that the market looks about right other than that, top 5 all look to have claims commensurate with their prices. |
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I have Slade Power and Sole Power joint top rated. Having just watched Aljamaaheer run 3rd to Slade Power in the Golden Jubilee, I feel he's the one to be on. He was very patiently ridden for the first four furlongs in that race and I think he'd have won the race had he been ridden more prominently. Perhaps Saturday will be his day.
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Was on Aljam ante-post always outpaced at Ascot in 1st time blinkers, needs 7 and new jockey imo.
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Hanagan OK new horse needed
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final decs/draw today?
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Still raining...glad I kept my powder dry.
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Aljam wont be running if goes soft.
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Slade Power beat Maarek on Soft/Heavy before his Ascot win. Still two days before the race but if it is soft you know he'll handle it.
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"If War Command runs in the July Cup I`ll eat my pants" Feltfair after the Guineas and an assertion by Brigust.
Come on Brig own up,what are you going to eat? |
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With the rain falling I've had a dabble on Gregorian at 33/1.
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Saved you from eating your pants Felt. I think my assertion was that WC would drop back in trip and that he would struggle to win another Gr1. I was wrong about the first part but if Noozoh wins I may not have been far wrong about his only chance of winning another Gr1 because this doesn't look a strong Gr1. However AOB had other ideas just as he did about the Irish Derby.
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Who knows best...Aiden O'Brien OR Brigust?
Tough call. |
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Going is now officially SOFT. Still raining.
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Slade Power is a worthy favourite in what looks a very open contest. If you are looking for a big priced runner for an e/w flutter you could do a lot worse than Tropics. He has disappointed since Ascot last year but that day he looked as if he was going to be a force in the top sprints. He goes on good to soft ,has a course and distance win to his name and looks set to start at a huge price.
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Gregorian and Aljamaaheer, look the two,the latter may be capable with different tactics(let him roll) but Gregorian got a verdict on him over 7f soft,so any more rain will help. Tough race.
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small e/w bet on jack dexter due to all the rain.
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According to AOB War Command needed further so I will have to bow to his experience. However WC finished a length behind Noozoh Canaries in the 2000 Gns at a time he was supposedly 'short' of work. AOB may have called it wrong given the underfoot conditions. This may have been WC's last chance to win another Gr1.
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If they don't get any more rain I don't see the ground being a problem for the Spanish horse tbh
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Sintonian,I find myself all at sea with Noozah,the Guineas form full of 1m+ sorts,yes he set the standard early fractions,and because the Guineas did work out so well,I am tempted to say the least,but in the back of my mind,the form not tested over shorter???
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but what if he is a sprinter that just has enough ability to mix it a mile? He was only 4 lengths behind Kingman. IF 6furlongs is his trip then that form sees him go very close. There are specialist, hardened sprinters in this race so it won't be easy but his form looks rock solid to me.
I've not bet in this race yet as I can see multiple winners so may just leave it, or do a few combos with other runners on other cards tomorrow. |
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Would agree with you on that sintonian,he is a strange one to way up,soft ground could even help in this instance?
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Jack Dexter and Slade Power will both appreciate cut, SP a bit short given how competitive the race is. JD e/w if the 25/1 is back up in the morning is worth a bet
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I would also add Astaire at 20/1 with the soft ground and 3 y/o record in this race
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Due Diligence is now too big for me to lay, especially as his best form before Ascot was on good to soft at Naas so the drift is a bit surprising. Slade Power is now a riskier lay with the soft ground in his favour but as he's now shorter I'll still be laying him even though he tops my 6f ratings. Jack Dexter and Rex Imperator are two who could go close if returning to their best but neither have shown enough this year to encourage a bet. I'm backing Gregorian each way, as his latest run was a slight career best for me, and he's always looked like he could comfortably handle a step down in trip.
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Noozhoh Canarias has form that is miles clear of this lot imo
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I think Noozoh will head for the far rail splitting the race into 2 groups. Soumi said after his last run he prefered to race along a rail and I cannot see him cutting this way or racing down the middle. If he does go far side I think he will be racing on unopened ground so the rain will not have gotten in so much as up the stand side and I think there has only been one horse raced up that far rail this week and she bolted up. If that happens that makes the race between Noozoh, Slade Power, Aljamaaheer, Hot Streak and Jack Dexter.
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You may well have called it right on a far rail bias , hope so .
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Noozah can...Reminds me in make and shape of Old R Hannon trained Plum Pudding who excelled at newmarket, obviously a couple of classes better than that horse .
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Noozhoh Canarias*
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Think i'll give this race a skip altogether. From a fairytale and form point of view it would be good to see the Spanish horse win.
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Astaire for me, just too big a price to pass up.... gl all
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It will be interesting to see if some of the sectional analysts opinion of Slade Power proves true today, that he was better than the bare result of the DJ due to doing too much too early. If that's true he ought to be very hard to beat given a more patient ride today on his ground in a race that beforehand appears to lack a true 6f star. My opinion is that he's no better now than when he finished behind Lethal Force in last year's race, which while still being good form makes him beatable.
I don't have a handle on Noozhoh Canarias' foreign form but I didn't see enough from him in the Guineas to make me think he could be a Gp1 sprinter over here, although you can never tell for sure until you see them back over their proper trip. |
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it's very difficult, I've had a little ew on Astaire because the race conditions should suit and I think he's overpriced and a small speculative ew bet on Cougar Mountain.
Slade Power looks very solid, respect the chances of Due Diligence, understand the love for Nooznah and can see the case for Jack Dexter. I've mentioned 6 and still might not have named the winner. |
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Can't be any softer than good ground by my reckoning of the first race time.
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Not a betting race for me so I've shared a nifty between Noozoh (Equiano was Spanish and pretty good), Cougar Mountain and Moviesta. GL all.
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Graham Lee just tested the far side before the July Cup. Will be interesting where he goes in the race.
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