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You must wish you took the big prices MJ?
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still 6/1 about after confirmation sin
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I have to admit, it is shaping into a 2 horse race i.e Tagh & Sea The Moon. I cannot have Aus simply because of the trainers record in the race. But the only one i've backed thus far is Prince Gib at 20's. He looks best of the French runners. Treve has reasons to think she can bounce back but her odds are not worth chancing.
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Draw will be significant on the day,and both Seas will shorten further is expected withdrawal. Of. Australia.
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It was good to see his German Derby form franked as Noble Mission isn't a bad yardstick. The dream is still alive
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Has anyone actually said Australia is a doubtful runner? Why would potentially the best horse of the season miss the biggest race of the season?
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You could apply that comment to the King George
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No has said Australia won't run but most think it's doubtful, many reasons, soft ground, trip and the most obvious that the opposition could be the strongest he's had to meet and they may not want him to beaten again. Personally I always regard the Arc as the best middle distance race of the season and compare winners of the two races and I think it proves it.
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Yes it's obviously the blue riband event of the European season, and isn't run on soft ground that often. I agree they wouldn't run him on soft, but pretty confident they would on good-soft or better.
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I would not be sure of that even?
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I have a feeling they will go to York, Leopardstown and then Champions Day at Ascot.
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sitting pretty
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Sea The Moon 150 £1.08 £160.92 160 £8.92 £1,418.28 |
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Didn't like the way he had his head bowed for most of the race today. Ran well but well beaten into 2nd. Needs to improve on that.
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The bubbles burst! I'd be surprised if he won the Arc after that.
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Nice form boost for Spiritjim and Siljan's Saga.
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Demuro just let him find his own way home....easy ride.
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Laughable he is still 7/1 after that tbh
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Now one of those races where you have a new favourite by default... Treve!
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whats the story with the bowed head Sintonian iyo ? been thinking about that myself and not sure what it means or why they do it ,been a few good horses but mostly Nh that have done it ,mostly headstrong front runners but some have done it and not appeared to be been pulling that hard .
could it be a sorted by a change of bit/bridle ? or would it help to run with head low ,maybe not pull as hard ? could earplugs help calm the nutter down a bit ,needs gelded imo . |
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just have to add , what was the point of the pace maker today
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I will have a bit of the 10/1 that's available now.
Yes it's disappointing that he lost yesterday but an upset was on the cards....back from a break...not fully wound up...arc's been the big plan. Had a nice gallop yesterday and was asked any questions by Demuro once Ivanhowe made his move. Should have done him the world of good. The German derby win is still the most visually impressive form this season going into the race and I'm not really sure of the others...like Australia for instance....will be even run? Just a way is exciting but I can't see him being as effective at 12f....surely he should be going to ascot for the champion stakes...surely... |
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Well the worry i had about front running style did come true,He is very much like his sire over this trip,if you remember the Arc when Sea The stars won, he pulled and sweated like i could not believe and still blew them away,this horse Sea the moon got an abundance of talent,but obviously a bit of a headcase,the tactics adopted in the German derby were to my eyes unbelievable,and yesterdays move from right to left off the home turn contradicting the trainers view that this horse moves left? I think he had too hard a race in the German Derby,I think the trainers tactics with this horse questionable(if the Arc was target),yesterdays run from the front not bad considering what we witnessed,but I do now wonder if he may have a problem moving left? Would have liked to have seen him held up and settled(if he can?),so going into the Arc without that knowledge a fool hardy pursuit.
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This horse has a lot of improving to do if he is to win an Arc. His level of form before yesterday (RPR 122) is below that needed (average Arc winner 130) and yesterday he was rated 112.He can't be judged on yesterday's form but there is only 4 weeks to Longchamp. Massive improvement needed in a short time. Possible? Maybe, but you would want a to hear a lot of really strong stable news in the meantime. Price now about right.
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Not sure about the low head carriage, B&B. Like you say, it is mostly seen with Nationa Hunt horses but I don't recall seeing STM doing it in the German Derby so maybe he just had an off day.
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Seems possible that STM's impressive German derby win was down to the horse detaching itself from the main field and maybe finding better ground.
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Markus Klug's German Derby winner lost his unbeaten record in the Grosser Preis von Baden on Sunday when beaten three lengths by Ivanhowe.
Soumillon rode Sea The Moon in the Derby but was required to stay in France on Sunday due to his retainer with the Aga Khan. With the Arc trials taking place at Longchamp this weekend, Soumillon will soon have a better idea about whether he can be considered for the ride, according to Niko Lafrentz, whose family are responsible for Gestut Gorlsdorf, the colt's owners and breeders. He told Press Association Sport: "We have a clear understanding with Christophe and the Aga Khan that a decision will be made next Tuesday after they have seen the Prix Vermeille. "I am sure that if we needed to advertise for a jockey my phone would not stop ringing, we will be looking for an international one." While Sea The Moon was a beaten odds-on favourite at the weekend, connections were not too downhearted, with Lafrentz insisting there will be much more to come in the Arc on October 5. "It was a good prep but obviously it could have gone a little better," said Lafrentz. "On the day, Ivanhowe was the best horse but we know we can improve a lot on that. "He came out of the race very well and while he (Cristian Demuro, jockey) could have asked for more, we didn't want him to have a very hard race as that wouldn't have helped the team in the long term. "We now have three and a half weeks to get him ready for the Arc and we hope it will be a little calmer than before Baden-Baden. We had TV crews and journalists nearly every day in the lead-up to it. "If we could choose, we would like the ground on the soft side of good - we wouldn't like it fast. We should be fine in October, though, I think. "In Germany most of our big races come at the end of a season and you never find perfect ground. We had been a little worried about running him at Hamburg in the Derby because the ground was very worn." Sea The Moon's tactics were questioned by some given the same team also ran stablemate Berlin Berlin in the Grosser Preis von Baden. Many expected that filly to make the running, but Lafrentz said that was never the case. "Everybody wrote that Berlin Berlin was going to be his pacemaker but we know that she would never be able to go fast enough to do that. Journalists just assumed, but she was there of her own accord," he said. "We are not thinking of supplementing a pacemaker for the Arc because we are not Coolmore - we can't pay 125,000 euro to do that - and, also, if we wanted to he could make the running himself." Sea The Moon will be joined in France by stablemate Wunder, who lost her unbeaten record in the German Oaks after having been hampered during the race. "Sea The Moon's girlfriend will be travelling to Longchamp with him," said Lafrentz. "Wunder, who won the Prix Chloe, will run in the Prix de l'Opera. It will be the biggest weekend of our lives. We only have about 20 horses in training but have had four Group winners." |
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Not the end of the world in racing terms to lose your Arc prep race, but the ease that he was beaten would concern me. His style of racing would also be a concern (making all) he looked a bit lacking in end of race speed to me (no turn of foot) Needs to find plenty if wanting to win an Arc imo.
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Have not seen to many flat sorts drop their neck like he did,City Entertainer over the jumps was one I remember,I do wonder if they may try a visor? we know he got class,and remember horses like Workforce have gone on to win the Arc with possibly lesser excuses having been beat out of sight by a by older horse.
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Non-runner!!
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was shocked to see Billy Newnes suggest the other day that if they didn't get Soumillon, he wanted Dettori on board. Must be well out of touch
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Sea The Moon misses the Arc due to injury
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A massive shame for the race really.
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