Sea The Moon

He looks a bit head strong. Tosses his head about before and after the race but it doesn't seem to affect his ability.

I'll stick with Taghrooda till she does something wrong. 3-y-o fillies are the biz in this race.

Aye Pete. She has it in her to land another big one, i.e the King George or the Arc. Johnny G has avoided the Arc with some good horses down the years though, Nathaniel for one, so i've had a little bit on at 7/1 for the KG. The Irish Oaks would just be a procession for her.

Have got my rating to 137 the best performance of the year,by a long way.

Whilst Sea The Moon was impressive, I feel it's too early to go overboard with ratings and bookmakers cutting quotes dramatically for the Arc. A winner of a Group 1, 2 and 3 in 3 races, but the opposition (certainly in the first 2 races) wasn't up to much. He crossed over to the stands and raced alone, so the winning distance could be exaggerated by the better ground.

Metro John, after 3 races you have him rated on 137. Assume you are not so far away from Timeform figures, you have him on a par with Grundy, Troy and Montjeu to name a few. Is that realistic ? I would want double the current 8's on offer for the Arc and if I could get 4/6 on Australia in a match bet (good ground permitting) over 10f, I would be walking to UK to put the bet on

It's never to early to go overboard,when you win a Group1 in that style,yes if it works out is another matter?,but the style and effortless victory should surely merit more than a little respect!

Andrew in Sweden,I can rate it close to 140,suspect 132-137 I lean with the latter,doubt we will see a performane like it this year(but who knows?)

Very impressive. It was a shame he switched to the near rail really because the camera work wasn't the greatest. He will go on to the Arc and be a massive player you would think.

metro john have you backed it for the Arc?

lets get them there first.

Worth noting Soumillon walked that part of the track earlier in the day so what he did was deliberate. His prep race will be interesting.

That's the risk of ante post betting! But you aren't very confident of your ratings if you haven't had a dabble? If he is as good as you reckon surely he's worth a few quid? Australia may go nowhere near the Arc, Treve has to prove she's trained on and after that??

slowerthanjohn,Ratings is one thing,race tactics are another.

maybe i should state my rating is a potencial rating,the Timeform guys will be lower I think? around 132-134.(each to their own)

what are we talking 32.5 ish for the last 3f?

No sectionals here roger,let simon do that.

Oh I do understand that but not much point in all your talk about how high you rate him and then you don't get involved? Apart from the fact he has tended to drift, tactically he seems pretty simple if nothing can give him a lead, let him blast.

Not tactics I like in any ARC,but always  possible,These 3yrlds got a little to prove with the older lot yet?

So which older horse do you have rated higher then? Plus 3yo get weight for age.

top price is 8/1 now fwiw.

All I can say is that if the trainer gave those instructions too soumillon,he must have thought he had nothing to beat? But the 2nd and 5th make the race look solid enough,better than the English Derby in my opinion,what Timeform and rpr give is another matter(not sure myself)

anything can happen between now and the Arc. Novellist looked great at Ascot....

It will shorten further in the coming weeks best buy if you trade,remember Australia may not go?

Race is 3 months away, King George to run and Irish Oaks, plus the 3 trials in France. There will be other contenders who show up, always is!

Those trainers in the UK guilty of over - racing methinks?

Come on metro what's your top rated older horses that are possible Arc victims for Sea The Moon

I thought they were donkeys last year,initial thoughts this year,was that lots of 3ylds highly rated,which remains the case,but the Eclipse put paid to that thought

Are you a politician? you're avoiding the question like one A 5yo won the Eclipse and the classic generation weren't ridden with the greatest of skill and didn't have their ideal conditions, trip and ground.

The German camera angle reminded of this beaut from racing uk back in the day....gem....

http://youtu.be/tWZXgQY40jY

The ground on the stand side looked yellowish.  Was there watering, and did they miss that bit?  The track is narrow and he didn't lose much distance moving over.
He was probably superior, but I would like to see him prove it by moving away from the front of the field, not away from the field.
The course looked a bit unkempt, like a small provincial UK/Ireland track, not impressive.

Looks a powerful  headstrong  Horse , Jockey had a problem pulling him up at the end   in what was  a total destruction job,  made to look routine . A lot depends on how you view the run of GC , he was struck into early on and finished down the field .It was  a race in which it was expected he would find easier to handle than the Epsom Derby .

Tend to  think  the value of the form might be  of about the same value as  say a race like the Fielden 
which True Story  romped away with or may be somewhat better,  need to do some old fashioned pounds and ounces work  on the placed Horses , at the moment  I have Sea the Moon down  as  a  True Story plus proposition

Talking of the Fielden  , strange to remember that Somewhat ran behind  TS in that , what a transformation , he looked a good Horse before the Racing Post Trophy last year , indeed some of us backed him for that , clearly wants firm ground  and positive ride .

The horse who finished 2nd was a possible non stayer too....by high chaparral but the mom was all speed.

33.13 more like it for final 3f if that pole is the 3 marker on the bend. Wouldn't have a clue meself about Hamburg...

Timeform rate it 127P,they recon it was 9 lengths not 1l lenths(what a backward world we live in),Not sure I can agree with the final figure they have given,to me that was a worthy 130 run,and regardless of what we may or may not think of those behind,18 runners could not go a yard with the winner,can't believe the race not rated better than the English Derby?

because historically the Derby is a MUCH better race.

yes but German Derbys not won in such style,this horse made pace and quickened 2.5 furlong out,the reaction from the horse was instant.(unlike the held up Australia in both Derbys)

I remain convinced we have have seen a very exceptional 3yrld,how they cope with the older sorts remains too be seen!

The course looked a bit unkempt, like a small provincial UK/Ireland track, not impressive.

Yes that was my impression when I first saw German tracks on tv, surprisingly very amateurish.

lots of rain in germany(very like wales)

I was at Hamburg yesterday and can confirm the course has more of a provincial/P2P feel than a Group One track. Many punters just pitching up with tables, chairs & umbrellas to take in the action - it was swelteringly hot.

Geoffrey Chaucer looked the standout horse in the paddock, so from a form perspective it was a shame he got struck into and could give his running.

As a huge fan of Sea The Moon, I still these current Arc quotes are ridiculous. I think he should be closer to 16s. Untapped potential but still unfurnished and certainly wouldn't win a beauty contest. The opposition really wasn't up to much and a lot of races on the undercard were being won by ludicrous distances.

I was at Hamburg yesterday and can confirm the course has more of a provincial/P2P feel than a Group One track. Many punters just pitching up with tables, chairs & umbrellas to take in the action - it was swelteringly hot.

Geoffrey Chaucer looked the standout horse in the paddock, so from a form perspective it was a shame he got struck into and could give his running.

As a huge fan of Sea The Moon, I still these current Arc quotes are ridiculous. I think he should be closer to 16s. Untapped potential but still unfurnished and certainly wouldn't win a beauty contest. The opposition really wasn't up to much and a lot of races on the undercard were being won by ludicrous distances.

Thanks Pret, very informative. I have ridden round a few German tracks including Krefeld and Gelsenkirchen and although they were a bit provincial the track itself and the grass cover was brilliant. You said it was hot. Did they water and did the other results show the nearside to be faster and the best place to be? I know he is a bit shorter now for the Arc but with Australia and Kingston Hill requiring specific going and Treve off colour the opposition isn't exactly stacked up.

RacingPost Rating; 120

Certainly looked more yellow on the ground up this rail.

Virtually same rating for TGG and STM. One beat Wild Chief by less than four lengths, the other beat him by 14 lenghts. If you factor in the 2f extra and that a hampered  Wild Chief was actually running on in the Prix du Jockey Club, while STM was heavily eased down the difference is probably even bigger. It is by far the best three year old form and that performance was easily superior to Australia. Of course the RacingPost has to protect the British/Irish owners and races and pretend otherwise. As of right now it would make more sense to give TGG and Lucky Lion the same rating.

If you think the rating is wrong and he is better than Australia then the price is in your favour. It's at times like these when betting men are supposed to bet like men.

Exactly brigust! I'm not having ago at anyone who does their own ratings, every one to their own but if they do and they are saying Sea The Moon put up such a great figure then put your money on your judgement. I've backed him at 12s just on the fact of the visual impression, he looked like a machine. The form to me is a massive question mark as I'm not over sure what he beat as some definitely ran below par. You are betting on potential rather than anything else, that was only his third run and it was easily his best performance. Also in the Arc what will the opposition be? Australia I'd be doubtful he'll make the line up, do they want to take the chance of him being beaten? Treve has to come back? Then after that? If all goes well and his makes the Arc then maybe we will see that Sea The Moon is no machine but I'm willing to put my neck on the line at the 12's He definitely has the potential to be a monster but only time will time.

John, that was actually his 4th run. The racing post do not have his maiden in their database for some reason. Guess they only include pattern races for some foreign runners to save on storage data? Dunno

Oh no I'll cancel my bet if that's his fourth run No that's where I looked as well but he's still lightly raced. Like I say we will see how good he is?

Very envious of those on at double figure prices. I would love to have a decent bet on STM now, but not at current prices in what could be a really good renewal.

http://t.co/j00QXAaEBa

Interesting that he says the ground was ''much quicker'' on the part of the track he steered to.

Even more interesting that the horse quickened and strecch out after leading 18 rivals(ffs have you ever seen a race before) Mind you I believe the trainer and jockey idiots for giving the horse a harder race than nessesary,and still no great rating for the effort?(is it worth it)

Are you talking to me MJ?

If you choose to ignore the facts from what the jockey has reported, then more fool you. Performances like Sea The Moon's are rare so it is only commen sense to question it because then you can begin to understand it. Why would you get angry about that?

Are you even aware Soumillon was walking that part of the track earlier in the day?

This horse could be a superstar, the chances are, given his breeding AND performances, he probably is. But don't get angry if someone disagress with you ...FFS.

MJ, given you think the ratings experts have Sea The Moon's rating wrong, and you think the horse has put up the best 3yo performance of the season but neglected to take the double figure prices for the Arc that were around after the race, can I ask you if you know anything about betting? Fair question, methinks.

I refuse to bet ante post these days,only on the odd occasion in the past,Alderbrook at 33/1 my last big success(a long time ago),it's like betting blind and giving the game away for small stakes!

I think it was michael stoute that said something like"no pro would bet until the day",(well i aint no pro ,but michael is correct)

They could supplement  Sea The moon for the KG  at a cost of 75.000, might be tempting ,that would send the market haywire !!

hi mac,possible,but not sure they want to take on the older bunch just yet?

I would like to see it MJ , old Stoute would probably have to be  to be carried  of somewhere in a state of apoplexy , were it to happen , he thinks the KG belongs to him and it probably does  weather permitting .

,The signs are that the 3yrlds could do with another couple of months,but would also like to see how they get on,remember in a good year the likes of workforce could not do it.

Good morning sintonian, just reread the thread,those comments I made, were not aimed at you,I had been reading another thread,flicked to this and got a bit confused,so no offence made at all towards you.Also I do bet before a race still,but not ante post in form of months before,and in my mind a good ante post bet would be at 25/1 plus,so some more confusion from me(sorry folks),
I am no trader ,time does not permit it,family and work put paid to that.I do comment occasionly and give opinion about ante post prices,but in the last 2 years have made a effort to stop activity for small stakes in the ante post market(I am no good at it)

For many years I have made money from ante-post, it is becoming more difficult now
especially with the new influx of trainers who are not aware of protecting a handicap
mark, or just ignoring protecting, I would refer anyone to ROCKY GROUND high enough
in the handicap but picked up a penalty for the WOKINGHAM, the same trainer won
with a horse which was re-assessed to the tune of 9 lbs higher, the horse was successful
at the higher assessment whereas in days gone by the mark would have remained the same
as before his win and would have only gone up 5 lbs, even then but would still have been 9 lbs
lower, the horse is a gelding so a stud career would not have been a concern!!!!

The horse which was runner-up to Sea The Moon, Lucky Lion, runs against Noble Mission today. The trip is 3f shorter though so not sure how imformative it would be, can debate it both ways.

The lion roared,confirmation that Sea The Moon was not beating trees(possibly non stayers) but that is good enough for me. 9 lengths in front of that in the German Derby,after making pace and showing turn of foot 2f out(some horse this)

You must wish you took the big prices MJ?

still 6/1 about after confirmation sin

I have to admit, it is shaping into a 2 horse race i.e Tagh & Sea The Moon. I cannot have Aus simply because of the trainers record in the race. But the only one i've backed thus far is Prince Gib at 20's. He looks best of the French runners. Treve has reasons to think she can bounce back but her odds are not worth chancing.

Draw will be significant on the day,and both Seas will shorten further is expected withdrawal. Of. Australia.

It was good to see his German Derby form franked as Noble Mission isn't a bad yardstick. The dream is still alive

Has anyone actually said Australia is a doubtful runner? Why would potentially the best horse of the season miss the biggest race of the season?

You could apply that comment to the King George

No has said Australia won't run but most think it's doubtful, many reasons, soft ground, trip and the most obvious that the opposition could be the strongest he's had to meet and they may not want him to beaten again. Personally I always regard the Arc as the best middle distance race of the season and compare winners of the two races and I think it proves it.

Yes it's obviously the blue riband event of the European season, and isn't run on soft ground that often. I agree they wouldn't run him on soft, but pretty confident they would on good-soft or better.

I would not be sure of that even?

I have a feeling they will go to York, Leopardstown and then Champions Day at Ascot.

sitting pretty


Back

Your
Odds

Your
Stake

Your
Profit


Sea The Moon

150

£1.08

£160.92


160

£8.92

£1,418.28

Didn't like the way he had his head bowed for most of the race today. Ran well but well beaten into 2nd. Needs to improve on that.

The bubbles burst! I'd be surprised if he won the Arc after that.

Nice form boost for Spiritjim and Siljan's Saga.

Laughable he is still 7/1 after that tbh

Demuro just let him find his own way home....easy ride.

Now one of those races where you have a new favourite by default... Treve!

whats the story with the bowed head Sintonian  iyo ? been thinking about that myself and not sure what it means or why they do it ,been a few good horses but mostly Nh that have done it ,mostly headstrong front runners but some have done it and not appeared to be  been pulling that hard .
could it be a sorted by a change  of bit/bridle  ? or would it help to run with head low ,maybe not pull as hard ?
could  earplugs help calm the nutter down a bit ,needs gelded imo .

just have to add , what was the point of the pace maker today

I will have a bit of the 10/1 that's available now.

Yes it's disappointing that he lost yesterday but an upset was on the cards....back from a break...not fully wound up...arc's been the big plan. Had a nice gallop yesterday and was asked any questions by Demuro once Ivanhowe made his move. Should have done him the world of good.

The German derby win is still the most visually impressive form this season going into the race and I'm not really sure of the others...like Australia for instance....will be even run? Just a way is exciting but I can't see him being as effective at 12f....surely he should be going to ascot for the champion stakes...surely...

Well the worry i had about front running style did come true,He is very much like his sire over this trip,if you remember the Arc when Sea The stars won, he pulled and sweated like i could not believe and still blew them away,this horse Sea the moon got an abundance of talent,but obviously a bit of a headcase,the tactics adopted in the German derby were to my eyes unbelievable,and yesterdays  move from right to left off the home turn  contradicting the trainers view that this horse moves left? I think he had too hard a race in the German Derby,I think the trainers tactics with this horse questionable(if the Arc was target),yesterdays run from the front not bad considering what we witnessed,but I do now wonder if he may have a problem moving left? Would have liked to have seen him held up and settled(if he can?),so going into the Arc without that knowledge a fool hardy pursuit.

This horse has a lot of improving to do if he is to win an Arc. His level of form before yesterday (RPR 122) is below that needed (average Arc winner 130) and yesterday he was rated 112.He can't be judged on yesterday's form but there is only 4 weeks to Longchamp. Massive improvement needed in a short time. Possible? Maybe, but you would want a to hear a lot of really strong stable news in the meantime. Price now about right.

Not sure about the low head carriage, B&B. Like you say, it is mostly seen with Nationa Hunt horses but I don't recall seeing STM doing it in the German Derby so maybe he just had an off day.

Seems possible that STM's impressive German derby win was down to the horse detaching itself from the main field and maybe finding better ground.

Markus Klug's German Derby winner lost his unbeaten record in the Grosser Preis von Baden on Sunday when beaten three lengths by Ivanhowe.

Soumillon rode Sea The Moon in the Derby but was required to stay in France on Sunday due to his retainer with the Aga Khan.

With the Arc trials taking place at Longchamp this weekend, Soumillon will soon have a better idea about whether he can be considered for the ride, according to Niko Lafrentz, whose family are responsible for Gestut Gorlsdorf, the colt's owners and breeders.

He told Press Association Sport: "We have a clear understanding with Christophe and the Aga Khan that a decision will be made next Tuesday after they have seen the Prix Vermeille.

"I am sure that if we needed to advertise for a jockey my phone would not stop ringing, we will be looking for an international one."

While Sea The Moon was a beaten odds-on favourite at the weekend, connections were not too downhearted, with Lafrentz insisting there will be much more to come in the Arc on October 5.

"It was a good prep but obviously it could have gone a little better," said Lafrentz.

"On the day, Ivanhowe was the best horse but we know we can improve a lot on that.

"He came out of the race very well and while he (Cristian Demuro, jockey) could have asked for more, we didn't want him to have a very hard race as that wouldn't have helped the team in the long term.

"We now have three and a half weeks to get him ready for the Arc and we hope it will be a little calmer than before Baden-Baden. We had TV crews and journalists nearly every day in the lead-up to it.

"If we could choose, we would like the ground on the soft side of good - we wouldn't like it fast. We should be fine in October, though, I think.

"In Germany most of our big races come at the end of a season and you never find perfect ground. We had been a little worried about running him at Hamburg in the Derby because the ground was very worn."

Sea The Moon's tactics were questioned by some given the same team also ran stablemate Berlin Berlin in the Grosser Preis von Baden.

Many expected that filly to make the running, but Lafrentz said that was never the case.

"Everybody wrote that Berlin Berlin was going to be his pacemaker but we know that she would never be able to go fast enough to do that. Journalists just assumed, but she was there of her own accord," he said.

"We are not thinking of supplementing a pacemaker for the Arc because we are not Coolmore - we can't pay 125,000 euro to do that - and, also, if we wanted to he could make the running himself."

Sea The Moon will be joined in France by stablemate Wunder, who lost her unbeaten record in the German Oaks after having been hampered during the race.

"Sea The Moon's girlfriend will be travelling to Longchamp with him," said Lafrentz.

"Wunder, who won the Prix Chloe, will run in the Prix de l'Opera. It will be the biggest weekend of our lives. We only have about 20 horses in training but have had four Group winners."

Not the end of the world in racing terms to lose your Arc prep race, but the ease that he was beaten would concern me. His style of racing would also be a concern (making all) he looked a bit lacking in end of race speed to me (no turn of foot) Needs to find plenty if wanting to win an Arc imo.

Have not seen to many flat sorts drop their neck like he did,City Entertainer over the jumps was one I remember,I do wonder if they may try a visor? we know he got class,and remember horses like Workforce have gone on to win the Arc with possibly lesser excuses having been beat out of sight by a by older horse.

Non-runner!!

was shocked to see Billy Newnes suggest the other day that if they didn't get Soumillon, he wanted Dettori on board. Must be well out of touch

Sea The Moon misses the Arc due to injury

A massive shame for the race really.