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Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk 31m
3mm rain @Sandownpark by 7am - eased off to patchy drizzle. Round Course Good to Firm, Firm in places / Sprint Course Good to Firm. |
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Hoping KH runs and wins (don't lose a penny if he loses or is n/r) but assuming the going is too fast for him I've now had a smallish win bet on War Command @ 16/1 - showed much more under an 'avergae' ride at Ascot and should be suited to the step up, and O'Brien has a great record in this.
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Channel 4 Racing @Channel4Racing 4m
Frankie Dettori (Kingston Hill): "I can't believe they're still calling it good to firm, there are puddles everywhere" |
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Uncle so you've only backed KH with the intention to trade based on a 5mm forecast? You don't actually fancy him to win..?
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You would think he'd have to have a good chance based on his form and stamina.
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I won't back him now because the ground is still an issue even though he ran OK on it in the Guineas, and because he was 12-14/1 on Monday!! No way can I take 9/2 now.
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Fascinating race on today Mukadram loves the Track , Trading leather may also be hustled up to towards the leaders , KH can't sit out back but NOT probably will and The fugue has the race of her life on , she will be a real champ if she can do it gl
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Sint - I did think on form he was overpriced at 8/1 after the final decs came out as if the ground was deemed soft enough for him to run I was sure he'd be a fair bit (2nd fav in book) and if he was a n/r I'd get my stake back. Obviously I was hoping for lots more rain so that The Fugue (and maybe some others) would withdraw to make his task much easier - and therefore make my potential arb much bigger.
![]() I'm not saying he can't win now but if the going is genuinely faster than good-to-firm you'd have to think it will compromise his chance, (if Varian still runs him). He's already drifted back out to 5/1 on here so I at least laid off my 2nd bet (@6/1) at the lowest price. |
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yep fair dos. First race will tell us what we need to know.
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Looks like the weather may have broken now as it's dry and sunny at Sandown.
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Why has Varian started going on about cut in the ground being a necessity? I know KH won the RPT on soft ground but has anybody looked at the times on Derby day? There was no way that ground was any slower than good to firm and I assume connections would've been very pleased with that effort and viewed it as a best performance. He wanted cut at the Curragh as he thought that was the only possible chance KH might have of reversing the form, fair enough, but now seems to be stating it as a requirement before every race. Sounds to me like the usual trainer pressure put on clerks to water.
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Well het got fined £12.5k for his late withdrawal at the Curragh so must have felt it was too fast to run.
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Yes, as I said, he thought it was the only possible chance of reversing form with Australia.
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Which was a view also taken by others.
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If KH gets his so called ground, then all he will be winning are nonsense races, because all the good ones will get pulled. They should accept the ground and get on with it. Career best on gd/frm.
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You don't think he would have run to get 2nd prize money Figgis? It's fairly decent
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^ Agreed Sint - plus coming 2nd again to Australia would not harm his reputation, whereas if he runs down the field today it will.
If he really is just a mudlark then they should just pick and choose when the ground suits - presumably he'll stay in training for at least another year so plenty of chances to win a big race or two over 10-12f. |
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Well the times point to the ground being slower on Irish Derby day than Derby day so it appears not. I would've thought that as Epsom was viewed as a career best on good to firm then they'd be happy taking that form into this race. Personally I don't think that level would normally be good enough, but that's just me. The only thing left to think is they want soft ground to blunt the opposition rather than it being a necessity for their own runner.
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Been belting down in Milton Keynes...hopefully they will have had some of it at Sandown too!
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Think KH team may regret not running against Australia in the Irish Derby later on today ( wishful thinking some might say)
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I'm one of the first to criticise clerks but thought Cooper spoke very sensibly just now on RUK and he usually does a good job at Epsom too, given the different nature of the course. Looking at how the ground rode yesterday and the expected amount of rain arriving afterwards he did only what was necessary and I'll be very surprised if it's anything slower than proper summer good to firm ground today, so a job well done in the face of pressure from some connections. Unlike Haydock, but no surprises there.
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What part of Milton Keynes are you today JOCI?
I'm near Newport Pagnell today and it hasn't rained all day!!!! |
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He's from the 'corrupt the market' part of Milton keynes. Tulius pulled because the ground is too fast. Mukhadram/True Story big prices.
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I've backed Mukhadram ew at 16/1 and Trading Leather win at 18/1. The case for the former has been made by Sint and others but the latter looks a silly price to me based solely on one disappointing run fto this season when he pulled much too hard (admittedly if that happens again we're in trouble).
So TL - ran a very good race behind Magician in last season's Irish Guineas over a trip too short, just nine days after finishing second in the Dante to a horse who went on to finish 2nd in The Derby. Then won the Irish Derby and second in the King George followed by second in the Juddmonte behind a very decent animal. Stable is flying and Bolger takes no prisoners so if it does rain (unlikely now) he'll be pulled out. Also (a bit simplistic admittedly), how many horses at his price in a G1 are afforded the luxury of a pacemaker? I think he was a little underrated last season due to his higher profile stable mate Dawn Approach. I read somewhere that even a return to his best form won't be good enough here - I'm inclined to agree if The Fugue rocks up in PoW form but he'd surely have the beating of the others. Respect the 3yos - particularly KH and NoT - and fear the WFA allowance but the last 3yo to win this was Sea The Stars and I'm not sure they're in his class. Finally in terms of the Kingston Hill debate, this is what Varian said to Mark Howard before the season started: 'He has gained his wins on slow ground but he's a good moving colt and I don't see why he won't be as good on better ground' - so they need to be getting on with it really... |
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I was a fan of TL last year, thought he was a possible Derby winner but he never came to hand in time but I backed him in the Irish Derby. Although he was obviously no world beater I agree that he was a bit underrated. You could forgive him his run first time out this year, as with any horse, but the problem for me is Bolger has usually squeezed everything out of his better runners by the end of their 3yo career and TL was given the usual busy campaign. It would be nice to see TL prove an exception but Bolger's past record has to give rise to doubts.
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Was at Wiilen Lake this morning for the 10k race, and it rained heavily.
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Very nice. A nice pipe opener before a good days racing.
How has your World Cup betting extravaganza been going. |
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Yes, genuine good to firm ground, possibly on the quick side of that, despite the top kicking off.
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Going well, mainly due to Greece v Costa Rica game, where I backed Sokratis to score @ 27s and both teams to win on penalties. Since then, some winners, some losers. From here on in, will be backing both teams to win on penalties in each game.
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(And I was there watching Mrs JOCI Club running) :)
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Looks like an interesting race today and thankfully I will be here to watch it live and I hope there are no excuses. Looking through the history of Group 1 winning 3 year olds running in the Eclipse over the last 20 years it looks quite interesting.
'94 Erhaab 3rd '96 Bijou D'Inde 2nd '97 Benny the Dip 2nd 2001 Touboog 4th, Black Minneloushe 5th 2002 Hawk Wing won 2005 Oratorio won, Motivator 2nd 2007 Authorized 2nd 2009 STS won, RVW 2nd. Looking a little closer at them as individuals Erhaab wasn't a great Derby winner having been beaten several times beforehand and beaten since, Bijou D'Inde was touched off by a good horse in Halling, Benny the Dip was beaten by a good horse in Pilsudski in a hot race and who then went on to win several Gr1's, Touboog and BM never won another race, and Authorized was beaten by Notnowcato in a tactical race where Notnowcato came across the track to get better ground. I wonder what the future holds? |
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Have not had a bet in the Great Race 2day
![]() Ground looks in favour of The Fugue again 2day, if she gets a gd clear run at them (stall 1 could be tricky) & performs at her best, I would fancy her to win again. Excellent & very informative race in store with some gd 3yos stepping up to 10f & The Derby runner-up taking his chance (fast ground not ideal over 10f imo) as he looks a real 1m4f horse to my eye at Epsom. Gd luck with your bets lads ![]() |
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well have had a bit on NOT...
think he has been crying out for this trip...we will see today, just wanted a tad more rain...i think verrazano will like the step up for a saver and it has to be remembered he has only had 2 turf starts the money for kingston hill has confused me but hey ho tricky race in all fairness |
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well done sint and others...why i deserted the horse i do not know
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Well done Sint.
I backed him at Ascot but gave up with him.![]() |
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Surprising to say the least.
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Half those jockeys rode like claimers!
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Huge pace bias, though KH was simply unable to go with them from half way (ground and/or trip) so I wouldn't blame Frankie, but Buick needs flogging.
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The mile handicap was very similar with the front runners not coming back to the field - Sandown has never been a track for quickeners and maybe the overnight rain has made it even harder to come from behind.
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Well done winners. Oh dear. Got that wrong.
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