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Coral Eclipse 5th July
Coral Eclipse 5th July
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Danedream could've been said to be such a 3yo filly, but as a 4yo she still won the KG in July.
You 'd have to go back to Time Charter in 1983 to find the previous F/M to win the KG. Don't know how many have tried though for the moment.The KG has a better record than the Eclipse with 7 winners since 1951 |
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The Fugue was the 2nd FM to win the POW since it was made all age in 2000. Again, don't know yet how many tried & failed.
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It still all comes down to if they were good enough on the day. If a filly/mare has already proved itself at the highest level in the summer then the autumn argument is redundant as a reason why one might fail in the Eclipse.
Looking just at the mares that finished first past the post in the PoW then went on to run in the Eclipse. Kooyonga did the double, although she was disqualified in the PoW. Incidentally she won the PoW by 1 1/2 lengths and there's no way on earth she'd be disqualified nowadays. Bosra Sham was arguably unlucky, given a poor ride by Fallon in a slowly run race, even Henry Cecil thought it was "appalling" at the time. However, she disappointed again next time at York and was retired afterwards. Whether Ouija Board would've won or not she was given an even worse ride by Soumillon in another slowly run event. As much as I was a big fan of Ouija Board, I have no doubts that The Fugue on her day is a better performer as a 5yo. |
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You look to explain why some failed. Its just as easy to explain why the 2 that won, did so. I well remember Kooyonga's race as it came up atrocious ground and i was convinced that she was the only one who would really handle it. As for Pebbles, well it turned out to be 4 runner race with her chief rival Ranbow Quest being beaten for speed and Bob Back was a 33/1 of the POW but was also caught out at Sandown.
If a horse like Park Top can be beaten in the Eclipse, along with all the others I've listed since 1980 then I would for sure not be taking about The Fugue no matter how well she performed at Ascot. In fact, because she performed so well there could be the reason to avoid her at Sandown. |
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taking a short price
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You look to explain why some failed.
Yes, just to counterbalance the weight of unexplained statistics. Its just as easy to explain why the 2 that won, did so. True, which are the real explanations why races are won or lost, not because of the horse's gender alone. |
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In fact, because she performed so well there could be the reason to avoid her at Sandown.
Again true, but the same would go for a male horse in the same circumstances. |
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to counterbalance the weight of unexplained statistics.
Which imo opinion are statistically significant. If that is true, what is your explanation then? |
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My explanation would be the same as for any race, form, conditions, preparation, run of the race, with form obviously being the dominant factor. I can only go off the races I know the form of well, which means races from 1985 onwards, and in my view in the vast majority of those races when a filly/mare ran they simply weren't good enough.
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So you don't consider that the statistics are significant in that case, even though mathematically they appear to be.
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Well the stats would've been very similar going into the PoW, and if I'd taken any notice of them I'd have missed a very nicely priced winner, so no, form is still the major factor for me. Incidentally, if The Fugue had skipped the PoW to wait for this (which in my view would've enhanced her chances) then Treve would've been beaten by Magician and increased the poor record of females in that race, which just goes to show how precarious some of these statistics can be.
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I see Kingston Hill is drifting like a barge on here. The ground at the moment is Good but a few dry days are in store.
Before the season started Varian made these comments regarding Kingston Hill; Trainer Roger Varian: "Kingston Hill is a beautiful mover and next year will be an open book. He has a great cruising speed and turn of foot so you wouldn´t rule out the Guineas. “A 2,000 Guineas on fast ground would be a different dynamic to what he has experienced, but I’m very confident he’ll be as effective on faster ground,” added Varian. I wonder why he has U-turned on that theory? Did the jockey report it was fast enough for him at Epsom and he was definitely better on the soft? Any body hear anything? |
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Just to add, that doesn't mean I'm completely ignoring the stats, they do give substance to the view that 3lbs generally isn't enough to bridge the gap between Gp1 males and females in truly run races on good to firm ground at the height of the season when runners are at their peak. That can also be concluded with race times, though, and unlike stats race times can often point to the exceptions beforehand.
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Had to have a bet on Mukhadram at 14/1. He was sent off 13/2 in the POW and the ride was totally different to what has seen him produce his best efforts. 10f on quick ground going right-handed are his plum conditions and the stable is in cracking form.
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^ sensible move, imo - will wait until the day personally because I don't cope well temperamentally with the non runner risk (has Haggas committed to the race yet?).
The other one I'm interested in is Trading Leather for similar reasons, all his best form on fast ground going right handed at this time of year last season - will wait on him too though because Bolger is a law unto himself. |
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I've not read anything to say he will be running this weekend tbh. Last I read was that he would go to KG after POW but that was backing in May, and considering he is in at the 5-day decs and that they made a c0ck-up last time out they might have another go!
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* back
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A last-minute spell of wet weather could yet rob Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes of its favourite, The Fugue, so impressive in landing the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot a fortnight ago. John Gosden, who trains the mare at his Newmarket base, said on Tuesday that rain was his only major concern ahead of the Sandown race, though he is also mindful that it will come hard on the heels of her latest outing.
“If it’s on the fast side, we’re happy,” Gosden said. “If it suddenly gets a massive downpour and it changes, we’re not frightened of taking her out. I wouldn’t want to see the roof going on at Centre Court,” he added in an allusion to the Wimbledon tennis championships taking place 10 miles from the racecourse. But rain is forecast for the Sandown area on Friday night into Saturday morning and Andrew Cooper, the clerk of the course, said the Met Office were predicting between 5mm and 10mm. The track is currently ‘Good’ with ‘Good to Soft’ places on the sprint course after a downpour last weekend. None of that is what Gosden wants to hear and it may not help his cause that the course could be watered on Wednesday, albeit to a minimal level of 2mm to 3mm. The next two days are forecast to be dry and hot, so, with Sandown due to stage action on Friday, Cooper feels he may have to act to prevent the track drying out too much. “It’s a tricky one,” Cooper said. “The question is, how fast the course will be if we don’t water before Friday. Ground on the fast side of good is fine but we’re looking at proper drying temperatures. We might need to put on 2mm to 3mm, which is what you would lose in a day in any case.” The Fugue, who is no bigger than 15-8 for the Eclipse, has been kept to good ground or faster for the past two years, turning in a career best on good to firm at Ascot last month. Gosden said she was “fine” following those exertions. “Ascot comes very close to Sandown and I’ve always thought it’s tight, particularly when you’ve broken the track record, and we’re all aware of the bounce factor. But she seems in good order and a lot of the other participants also raced at Ascot. That’s what you call the crowding of the midsummer programme. I just keep her happy and well, bouncing. She’s doing everything right at the moment.” |
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Let's hope they don't water, it's only good ground at the moment not good to firm.
Presuming it's good to firm on Friday 5-10mm shouldn't ruin the ground but it doesn't take much rain to get pretty testing. Hoping they don't get too much rain as could be some really good bets on that card if it stays fast. |
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I can't understand how War Command can be as short as 7/1. Made hard work of winning a poor Dewhurst, and has been comfortably beaten in the other 3 group 1s he's run in. Can understand the reason for going up in trip, but IMO, the 7f Prix Foret around a bend is his best chance of a group 1 this season.
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I would think 5mm of rain would taken enough sting out of the ground for Kingston Hill to run?
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Ground on the fast side of good is fine
The middle of summer and "ground on the fast side of good is fine", he can't even use the term good to firm, ****g unbelievable. |
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It's a dirty word these days Figgis.
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All these weather sites are hardly the most reliable but they've all changed in the past couple of hours to a much drier Friday night/Saturday. Could only be 3-4mm. Hope that's the case but sure it will change a few more times before the weekend.
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Interesting stats on the Fillies, Kooyanga and Pebbles were as tough they come , the same could not be said for The Fugue, although she has just as much talent , Environment friend won it years ago as i recall , another never say die type , who knows, if The Fugue gets her ground she may win without ever needing to stick her neck out , could not be my first choice though at the price, 9/2 might think about it GL
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SOARING temperatures at Sandown on Wednesday resulted in the ground quickening up three days prior to a possible mouthwatering running of the Coral-Eclipse Stakes.
After the temperature hit the mid 20s, the going was changed to good, good to firm in places (from good) on the round course and good (from good, good to soft in places) on the straight course. Three millimetres of water was put down on Wednesday and clerk of the course Andrew Cooper confirmed that they are planning to add some more water over the next few days despite rain forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Cooper said on Wednesday: "We will have more of an idea in the morning but for the time being what we are considering is adding two and a half millimetres tomorrow. "We added three millimetres today and it dried up pretty quickly but it doesn't need much watering. We've had no rain since Monday and with the temperatures in the mid 20s, it is drying out all the time." Cooper added: "After walking the course today the sprint course is now good and the round course is good to firm. "There is obviously rain forecast for Friday night and Saturday but for now we will just take it as it comes." |
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Watering good ground ahead of rain
 I could almost understand if it had been good to firm all week but we've only just got rid of the good to soft in places. |
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The Fugue is tough. She has ran some massive races in defeat.
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Did not mean to demean the achievements of the Fugue obviously a game and genuine Filly ,but to win the Eclipse with the uphill climb just a little more is needed , will be the first to congratulate , if she can do it , I doubt she can but if she sails home will be eating humble pie
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think I,ll have a little e/w on hillstar, theres a big race in this horse in a weak eclipse field
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Obviously the prices listed above are betting w/o Australia.
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Guess who's back, back again
Brigust's back, tell a friend Guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back guess who's back Guess who's back... There is also a 'how far will Australia win by' market too  You pop off for a few weeks and Ballydoyle go against your instructions and run Australia in the wrong race. I hope you're going to have a few choice words with them!!!!! |
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Alleged before you do;
Stoute has a fine record in the Princess of Wales's Stakes winning it nine times, more than any other trainer, and he could be double-handed with Hillstar set to miss Saturday's Coral-Eclipse, for which he was 25-1, also heading to Newmarket. |
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thanks for that mate
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At least wait for a "day of the race " market.
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12 confirmed. No major withdrawals.
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BBC and Met Office site currently suggests some fairly heavy rain from about 10.00pm Friday through to Saturday morning turning and maybe even some showers later on Saturday. However even today the BBC forecaster says there is uncertainty about when, where and how much there will be in the south east. The other weather sites suggest far less rain just a few light showers.
Don't have a major angle on the race so have decided to just play the market and so on the off chance that there is a really amount of rain I have had a large bet at the top price 8/1 on Kingston Hill with Sp.Bet (as they were 9/4 on The Fugue so if she is withdrawn the rule 4 is less than with some others). If there is enough rain for Kingston Hill to be allowed to run then even if The Fugue does run I'll hopefully be able to lay off at nearer 6/1 for a freebie - and if it really rains a lot and The Fugue is withdrawn I'd expect him to go off favourite as NOT and Verrazanno will both drift imo. |
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CoC was saying they are only expecting patchy light rain from Friday evening into Saturday morning. He reckons about 5mm which is only 2mm more than when they water the track.
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Not best pleased with MuKhadram's draw on the wide outside given his style of running. He is going to have to use up a lot of petrol early.
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To be fair to the clerk, when Sandown has raced on good to firm ground, particularly for the Eclipse meeting, it really has been proper good to firm ground, and comparing with stick readings of the past the ground must genuinely be the same at the moment. When it was called good to soft in Nathaniel's year I made it no worse than good. Unless we get really heavy rain, which isn't forecast, then I can't see the ground being any slower than good ground at the very worst.
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