Irish 2000 Guineas

Is this next weekend?

Thanks, I've taken some 33s on Adelaide. Kingman not guaranteed to turn IMO. Shifting Power's form has taken a few knocks and War Command very poor in the guineas. Weld looks to have a strong hand here also.

who are racebets anyway never heard of them

cant find anything on kingman ? is he intended

tend to think you will see a different war command here 7/2 is massive for me

Anticipated soft ground against WC

Hard to see anything beating Kingman innit? Horse is all about speed, the hard pace didn't really suit at HQ, but still ran a huge race. Only way to beat it is to have the pacemakers set a gruelling test - Australia and Shifting Power may see it off were it to turn into a slog. Looks most unlikely to be run that way though.

A bit of a problem for me. A race I often bet in but this year is a bit odd at the moment.
I think Kingman will fail to stay unless the race is particularly weak.
I think Shifting Power will fail to stay unless the race cuts up.
I don't think War Command is good enough to win a classic unless it really cuts up.

So that's the first three in the betting out of the way. However there is only the Weld horse and the Lyons horses running for me if they all run so another strategy may need to be employed.

If the race was today and they all lined up and the going was good I would lay the front three in the betting in running at odds on. Kingman will undoubtedly be held up until late and possibly Shifting Power would as well and I guess wearing blinkers War Command will be prominent. So there is every chance all three could trade short in running. And even then all three could lose. So if only one trades short and wins I would lose but not much. If two traded short and one won I would win and the same with all three. Then it could be good. We'll have to wait and see what runs.

Well at least I posted my views before the race. I will leave it at that.

I`m sure your mate Fig will be proud of you Brig.

Sure am Felt, that has to be the most unambiguous pre-race betting opinion I've seen from him

One thing is sure, Felt, we have a 50/50 chance of guessing the postscript. 1.Poor horse beats non stayers, or 2. Non stayer beats other non stayer and poorer horses

I've twigged you Figgis, you snake. Watch this space.

As to the race, I can't have Kingman as a non stayer myself, it's not even something I could contemplate after the Guineas. After the Guineas I said I'd be looking to oppose him if he made a quick appearance but I have him 7lbs clear of the field and I really couldn't oppose him with anything here, especially if he gets cut in the ground, not that he needs it but I think it would give him an even bigger edge. It's basically down to will he run his race after what I would think were quite hard races in the Greenham and the Guineas, and if he is below his best will it be by more than 7lbs? I can understand people taking the view that you shouldn't be afraid of one horse and backing something like War Command but I won't be opposing him here. He's too short for me at the moment but if he did go to around 4/5 when he's a certain runner (probably wishful thinking) I will back him.

Ooh, even more cryptic than your Irish Guineas analysis

For me it's also difficult to see a decent each way bet to oppose him with, as the next 3 in the market are my next 3 form choices and I have little between them. War Command could recover his form but personally I wouldn't be sure. At the prices I just don't fancy taking a punt on which 2 of the 3 will fill the places.

The e/w value in this may be Obliterator, his second in the Fieldon was a good run and I agree with a fellow forumite in the Derby Thread that the race may have fallen apart  in the latter stages due to the pace  of the race  allowing True Story to coast through to victory.

Anyway It is no disgrace to run second to that Horse  imo  as his run in the Dante may be just as misleading as the run of NOT at Newbury , don't think we saw the best of him there by a long shot , think he is one of the big three in the Derby along with Australia and Kingston Hill .

Jamie Spencer eased down on  Obliterator  at Newmarket when the game was up in the last furlong  so the margin of defeat may be a bit exaggerated, three or four Horses rated well into the Hundreds finished  behind him that day , it was a good effort . Kingman is a brilliant Horse but i think he lost a couple of lengths in terms of performance at Newmarket although he is said to favour soft ground it is possible his performance level will drop off even further over a mile on it . I like Shifting Power and would have supported him e/w on g/f that seems unlikely . War command  is the saver  just in case he decides to put it in  gl
but that seems

Sint , just seen that about Obliterator ground requirements which puts me off a bit to be honest , then again the weather outlook around Dublin  not so bad, so may be good ground on the day of race    . Was strong on War command for the 2000 UK but the money did not come and then he ran moderately ,  don't know what to make of him ,  but  would not be a surprize if he came right back to form given O'brien record , so will have a saver , Kingman is the likely winner in a none attritional race as he has all the gears , soft ground i feel would do for him but would do for Obliterator as well by the sounds of it , snookered as they say.

I am really surprised Kingman is 8/13. Worthy fav but that looks really short to me.

looks like some more light rain today on forecast mac, I'll be leaving any bets til as late as possible and that goes for most of the racing on saturday.

I don't mind soft ground mac as long as I know it's going to be soft and can then narrow down the field, the problem is studying the races when you are not sure what the ground will be.