Irish 2000 Guineas

War Command pulled out...

1m 19.37 official time for first race

I agree with the description but at least the big race will be run on the other side of the track from the first three races so shouldn't cut up much more.

It's not worth risking shorties in this ground unless they are proven on it.
Kingman could well act on it but as I said on other thread his dam Zenda flopped in the irish 1000 on similar ground.
Are you still backing it figgis?

Gosden walking the course....

Looks like that Hot Streak could well live up to his big speed figure of last year figgis, given 5f on softish.

Haven't done yet, SG, I'm hoping for a bit of a drift, if Gosden chooses to run him I'll back him. I normally give this going a wide berth if they haven't proved themselves on it but I don't see it as a very competitive event so I'll make an exception here.

Cornelius Lysaght ‏@CorneliusRacing  2m
#Curragh: Kingman runs in Irish 2000G, but trainer John Gosden will tell jockey not to give horse hard race if unsuited by v soft going

Just if anyone is thinking of having the house on

Hot Streak did it well enough, it didn't look a strong Temple Stakes, though, with him facing mainly old or out of form sprinters, I still don't see him as a Gp1 winner yet.

almost evens on here now kimgman

I'm on.

WP Kingman backers

WP Kingman backers

wd figgis, quite impressive and guineas form upheld

Not bad for a non stayer

surely no one will be calling him a non stayer now

yeah that was great non staying performance wd kingman backers

I wonder if Australia will shorten again for the derby after that

Guineas form to the pound, confirms Australia achieved plenty at Newmarket and will be surprised if doesn't go off 4/6 or something very short on Derby day.

Shifting Power arguably let down the form of those who raced stand side in the Guineas. Certainly didn't frank it.

Brilliant performance , superstar.

I thought Shifting Power ran a very good race, he's hammered the rest including a proven soft ground horse in Mustajeeb and the RPT 2nd Johann Strauss. Kingman was just different gravy today. But the overall form of the english guineas is well up to standard.

Maybe, though there is as yet not much evidence apart from for the far side runners. Could have been a huge bias towards the stand side that day.

My feeling at the moment is that Kingman has just taken his form to a new level, the sort of level I was expecting him to take it to in the english guineas but we shall see. sets up hopefully for a re-match with NOT in the SJP as long as ground ok

the fillies race just 0.26s slower though they didn't come all the way over for that race, I see Murtagh has that Purr Along now, looked a decent 2yo filly but then Muir couldn't even get a win out of her last season. Looks like she could be back to the form of her 2nd to certify now with Murtagh. anyway I'm off, was a good days racing with class performances from Kingman and Hot Streak. enjoyed it.

Slowest run of the 3 8f races Kingman's.....nothing new learned. More hype to follow.

Good point Roger de Bris
My thought today was Kingman wasn't stretched by the early pace.
In England a combo of stronger pace and better ground didn't play to his change of pace.
If anything it says to me that Australia caught a fading Kingman, while only plugging on himself.

roger, firstly it was the 2nd fastest time, the fillies was the slowest, secondly in the hcap they stayed far side and didn't waste ground in coming over like they did in the guineas and then there is the pace of the races. so would be silly to take the times at face value.

A minor point

3rd ... Mustajeeb: Compton Place - Rifqah (Elusive Quality)
6th ... Great White Eagle: Elusive Quality - Gender Dance (Miesque's Son)
7th ... Michaelmas: Elusive Quality - Christmas Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)

Racing Post website
Elusive Quality progeny statistics wins
Heavy 3; Soft 20; Gd-sft 16; Good 20; Gd-fm 67

Elusive Quality ran five times: Fast(1); Firm (2); Good (2).

Whatever race you want to use to compare, doesn't make a lot of difference. It's a nothing new learned race off a slow pace. Same as Toronado was in the Craven, and Australia was vs Free Eagle....

Not easy to get any sectionals but I clocked the guineas just over 2 secs slower through the first 2f compared to the hcap and it did look quite steady early on, so that and coming all the way over to the chewed up ground on the stands side is probably why the time was slower.

Roger, what rating did you give for Kingman in the greenham and the guineas?
How's he compare on your figures to previous guineas winner?

When Tracy Piggott interviewed John Gosden after the race he made a point about being very complimentary about the ground.  He said it was a credit to the ground staff and the management.  He said putting on the 6f, 5f, 6f sprints before the 2000 Guineas ensured that the earlier races used the ground up the stand rail, and left very nice ground yards off the rail.  Gosden walked the ground beforehand, and his horse came up on the good ground at the outside of the field.

give the hcap a different allowance for staying far side.
use the Gp3 & Guineas for their allowance. They are both fairly similar.
even when you do this, you still have a slow pace for Guineas and a very fast finish for the winner.
I don't do hcap ratings.

The more I check out the runners in the Irish 2000 the less impressed I am.

2nd ... Shifting Power four runs: Good (2); Gd/fm(2)
His sire Compton Place ran 12 times: Firm(1); Gd/fm(5); Good(4); Gd/sft(1) (12th of 18); Soft(1) (12th of 12)

Compton Place progeny wins
Heavy 14; Soft 43; Gd/sft 59; Good 132; Gd/fm 219
The progeny win %s are much the same on each surface
but imo it is telling that the trainers run them so often on firm

yes I made it around 25s for Kingman last 2f, decent stuff in that ground.
I didn't mean hcap ratings btw roger, I thought I had read you did your own speed figures and
was just wondering if you had some decent figures for Kingman in previous races.

Yes, I do my own.
Havent got every track covered.
I gave him 107 for debut, don't have Sandown or Newbury done, 112 for Uk Guineas, 112 for today.
Looks like Newbury is his best one.
Was hard to gauge him as the camerawork was non-existent for his 1st & 3rd runs. But what you got in the UK Guineas looks basically like what he is at the moment.
He still needs to show he can cut it in a strongly run race on Good/GFm ground.
Today was a nothing race for me.

would be silly to take the times at face value.

Completely agree Stevie, however, I don't have it as an improved performance but he couldn't have done much more than that in the circumstances. A lot of people are knocking the race after the event but I didn't see too much of that beforehand.

You knocked it yourself Figgis, saying you couldn't find anything to give Kingman a race.

cheers roger,
Yes probably best not to get carried away by a wide margin win on testing ground,
he's going to have to do it over a mile on quicker ground against proper G1 opposition.

I did, Sankara, at least I knocked the competitiveness of the race given Kingman's advantage over the field, I didn't knock the winner. The point is I said it before the race. It seems to me that Australia knockers would've jumped on the result if Kingman hadn't fired, just as they have now he's won impressively.

I would say most form students supported him today. I did anyway.

He does seem to need a certain set of conditions to show his best though, a bit like Celtic Swing maybe?

Maybe he just had an off-day in the UK Guineas...and he can still be just as good on better ground. It's doubtful though at the moment.

It was a very good run in the Guineas, he's just no superstar, I don't see why he should be crabbed for that.

So nobody can have a view on Australia that is influenced by events? People are either inflexible Australia knockers (and therefore disagree with you) or Australia fans, and therefore escape your criticism. Not sure who's being most rigid in his thinking here.

Sankara, I think you'll find I disagreed plenty with brigust when he went from calling Australia a good bet in the Guineas to echoing O'Brien's comments about him being a wonder horse. Anybody can say Australia is a poor bet for the Derby if that's what they think, he might be, I'm saying some Australia opposers were always going to knock the race whatever happened.

I do think sankara made a valid point in saying shifting power may have let down the form of those that raced near side in the english guineas by getting beaten much further by Kingman today, though with the very different ground it's difficult to be sure of such things and he did beat the rest off fairly easily. Shifting Power isn't any better than a g2 horse on my figures but I still think Australia beating him 2 and a bit over a mile is a very good performance for a horse that should excel over middle distances.

But you're saying that based on the evidence-free assumption that those who disagree with you are biased.

Just saying he didn't frank the form Stevie - there may be any number of reasons why he didn't, only one of which is that his side in the Guineas was flattered.

his side in the Guineas was flattered.

The Grey Gatsby btn 6 lengths on the stands side and won the Dante?

Only other runners out of the Newmarket Guineas so far just finished 1-2 in the Irish version, well clear.

I never said that at all, I said some people who are opposing Australia would've said the Guineas was crap if it hadn't been franked today, as it was endorsed they are looking for another way to downgrade it. Do you think that if the fav had been well beat today that everyone who thinks Australia is just hype would've excused him because of the ground and said it shouldn't detract from the Guineas? As I don't.

Well I never I get back and Figgis is still talking b ollo cks with a forked tongue. Ffs Figgis give it a rest.
This is what I said about Australia and AOB. Not your twisted version.


brigust1 • October 17, 2013 5:31 PM BST
I think you are getting too over excited Sandown.

I am just quoting what the facts are. If you think War Command should be the Guineas favourite then get stuck in. If you prefer to listen to JOB, not that he said anything, then that's Ok by me.
These points are just an extrapolation of the facts, comments, form and bookies prices. none are mine. I am putting them before you and you can rubbish them at will.

But if you want my view? I know you are wanting me to proffer it so I will.

I couldn't back War Command for the Guineas with your money. I couldn't back Australia because he is too short and as yet the form is untested. The same applies to Kingman. If they ran the race tomorrow between those three over the straight mile at Newmarket I would back Australia. It's no use me saying I will see you here next May because I don't think you will want to remember this thread.

On a human nature basis I can see absolutely no way AOB will sit down with the owners of the fastest and best horse in his yard and utter the words Derrinstown. It won't happen because he will be confining his comments to the bin.


brigust1 • October 17, 2013 9:12 PM BST
Felt I haven't had a bet and where AOB is concerned I swerve all ante post bets because he is unreadable.

I have just logically looked at ALL of the information available as of today. Without bias or preference.

I have noted AOB's comments.

The betting market and Ladbrokes prices, knowing their Coolmore connection.

When the horses ran first and their prices in their races.

The form of their races and the possibility of more to come.

I have also taken on board the fact that they are going softly softly and stopping running this early in the season.

I think they know they have a very good horse and will storm the top races next year.

He has speed, according to AOB, he is guaranteed to stay and I haven't seen or heard of anything else out of the ordinary.

I know AOB makes wild comments but given he has a top 2 year old to compare with he is in a much stronger position than anyone else.

And above all what have seen so far, excluding Australia, has looked workmanlike at best.

All in all Australia comes out clearly ahead. So, if the race was run tomorrow he is the horse I would be backing and be pleased with the 7's available.

Like I have said 'It's a no brainer'. You know it makes complete sense.

Figgis, had Shifting Power beaten Kingman I think some may have claimed it as a boost to Australia.

Pedro, TGG was on the far side in the guineas.

For me, going in to the race today I had Mustajeeb 5lb below Shifting Power so I'm happy that today's result confirms my rating on the
english guineas. Now I notice Mustajeeb had an official rating the same as Shifting Power and this is partly due to beating older horses when getting too much wfa and I do see some 3yos getting enhanced ratings because of this and no doubt the official handicapper will rate the race through the 3rd and we may get some more overrated horses.

I still believe the english guineas was up to standard and the 1st 2 were better than the rest by further based on sectionals and nothing I've seen today changes that.

Well I guess it distracts from your lay of the non stayer, eh brig

with WC a non runner today, the forecast was a no-brainer, guineas form was superb, going forward, will have to see what kingman
has to beat next time it hits a race course. cross that bridge when come to it.

brigust1 • May 20, 2014 12:53 PM BST
A bit of a problem for me. A race I often bet in but this year is a bit odd at the moment.
I think Kingman will fail to stay unless the race is particularly weak.
I think Shifting Power will fail to stay unless the race cuts up.
I don't think War Command is good enough to win a classic unless it really cuts up.

So that's the first three in the betting out of the way. However there is only the Weld horse and the Lyons horses running for me if they all run so another strategy may need to be employed.

If the race was today and they all lined up and the going was good I would lay the front three in the betting in running at odds on. Kingman will undoubtedly be held up until late and possibly Shifting Power would as well and I guess wearing blinkers War Command will be prominent. So there is every chance all three could trade short in running. And even then all three could lose. So if only one trades short and wins I would lose but not much. If two traded short and one won I would win and the same with all three. Then it could be good. We'll have to wait and see what runs.

That is what I wrote.

All horses 'Stay' it just depends upon the quality of the opposition. Shifting Power was 50/1 in the 2000 Gns so I think that pretty much sums up the quality of the opposition.

I would've thought summing up the quality of opposition should be a requisite for any punter pre-race. As War Command, a horse you said wasn't good enough, was the only significant absentee I can't think what changed.

I can't think is about right. With two likely non stayers in the top three in the betting I couldn't see them being allowed to dictate the pace between them. With WC wearing cheek pieces for the first time and AOB having Johann Strauss, Australia's pace setter at home, in the field I thought the race would be solidly run. WC didn't run and it wasn't.
The race Shifting Power won, Free handicap, there were 6 runners and the 4 that have run since have all been well beaten.

Kingman bolted up today. Considering Mustajeeb (-3lb)finished 3 lengths behind War Command last season and WC finished 5 lengths behind Kingman in the 2000 Gns for Kingman to beat Mustajeeb by 7 lengths wasn't a surprise.

Ah I see, so a more strongly run race would've resulted in a 7+ lengths turnaround in form? Only as War Command wasn't deemed good enough and you've already said Mustajeeb is a worse horse than him then we'd have to look back to Johann Strauss to be running for you. Meaning a strongly run race could've resulted in a 13 lengths turnaround in form. Interesting

Unable to think out of the box Figgis. Paint by numbers.
Why are you always so obtuse?
I thought with WC wearing blinkers (originally he was supposed to) then a good pace would be ensured. Add to that WC was only 4.75 lengths behind Kingman at Newmarket on his first run of the season, AOB's horses have appeared to need it, and now blinkered for the first time then the probability of at least a battle would not be impossible. I thought Kingman and Shifting Power would be held up for a finish. I therefore thought the possibility of two of them trading at odds on in running was possible and likely. Without WC there was no bet. And as I didn't get home until tea time I missed nothing much.

Kingman won like a good thing should. However I didn't back him so he couldn't have been that good a thing. Had I known WC wasn't running etc I may have backed him but I didn't and I didn't. They always look good things AFTER they have won and somehow never look good things when they are beaten.

Maybe the St James Palace Stakes will tell us more.

Fair enough

pedrobob, Kingman and The Grey Gatsby raced far side and have subsequently franked the form of that group. Shifting Power raced stand side and has subsequently been beaten twice the distance by Kingman that he was beaten at Newmarket. It's quite possible that all the runners in the 2,000 Guineas were top notch, but until something comes and franks the form that raced in the stands side group, a doubt remains, and it's a doubt that means Australia shortening for Epsom after yesterday's run is hard to understand.

you could also argue Obliterator's flop adds substance to the fact those 2 horses were overrated in the Fielden and benefited from a pace collapse that day. Also Kingston Hill's RPT win also looks weak with Johann Strauss and Dolce  N Karma looking out of their depth.
The main problem is trying to find positives for the other derby runners. Shifting Power finishing 5l behind Kingman on very soft ground at the curragh compared to finishing 2 1/2 l behind on faster ground at Newmarket isn't anything to worry about imo. The overall form of the guineas looks pretty good compared to the other trials.

I know people still have doubts about whether Kingman truly stays the mile, and yesterdays slowly run race will only fuel that argument.

At Newmarket however, at the half way stage he was 1.75 lengths down on Australia and ran the 6th, 7th and final furlongs quicker than him to beat the Ballydoyle colt a head.
True he was gunned down by Night Of Thunder but for me he raced too early and left himself vulnerable in the final furlong.

I think the Newmarket form looks quite solid and will be backing Kingman to beat his Guineas conqueror in the St James.

Kingman won very easily, nothing in the race yesterday would have beaten him but the tactics employed were odd to say the least.

The place not to be was the stands rail. And that is where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th raced, Shifting Power, Mustajeeb and Johann Strauss are not strong stayers, in my opinion but their connections say they think they are.
Then why would they set off at a sedate pace for 4 furlongs knowing it would play into Kingman's hands?

I think John Gosden has played a blinder. He told the press that Kingman would be pulled up if he didn't act on the ground and I think that changed the mindset of the others connections. Now there was a winning possibility so Hughes rode the right race IF Kingman didn't act.
Unfortunately Kingman did act and he was beaten. Surely, considering Shifting Power is being considered for the French Derby and also according to connections he is crying out for a trip that making the race a proper stamina test and not a 4 furlong sprint would have been the way to go. The same goes for Mustajeeb and for Johann Strauss.

Brandy at Newmarket you must kick on coming down the hill because asking your horse to quicken up the hill is harder. That applies even more so on a suspect stayer by flying down the hill you gain enough lead to hang on. He didn't and was outstayed up the hill. Hannon knows this and I think Ascot will suit NOT. Real good tactical contest coming up.

stand corrected on the draw of Gatsby. Still think there was nothing in the draw at Newmarket and the pace was pretty even, so no excuse for any runner on the day on either side.

Possible that Kingman might have underperformed there, but yesterday proved nothing. He had a stone in hand of Shifting Power beforehand and even more of the rest, whilst the winning time was slow for a British / Irish classic. Can only assume the rest didn't handle the ground as those outside the three would have struggled to win a cl5 handicap at Beverley

Yes I agree Brigust regarding the dip but with a furlong to go he was still trailing Australia and outstayed the derby horse.

If you think the far side was 2 to 3 length better than the stands side in the guineas then you'd be making The Grey Gatsby better than Toormore, War Command and Kingston Hill over a mile. That wouldn't make sense to me after Toormore beat TGG in the craven, even if you say Toormore wasn't quite at his best in the guineas.

I'm not saying the far side were superior.
It's hard to say if there was a track bias on the day because no other race split like they did in the guineas.

All I an saying is Australia cover the first 5 furlongs in 51:23 and Kingman in 51:55. Which gives Australia the best part of 2 lengths.
Kingman then ran the final 3 furlongs quicker than Australia but didnt head him until inside the final furlong. Which isn't the sign of a non stayer to me.

I think most punters accept that race results are sometimes at the mercy of the way they are run and that on another day there could've been a different result, but when the winner beat the rest by margins of 5 lengths, 2 lengths and 6 lengths I have to say they are talking out of their ****s, imo of course

brandyontherocks
I think the Newmarket form looks quite solid and will be backing Kingman to beat his Guineas conqueror in the St James. 

I would also back Kingman to beat NoT next time, unfortunately it looks like the market has reacted to yesterday's win so I don't know if Kingman will be any value on the day. I'd back Kingman to beat NoT, not because there was any fluke about NoT's performance in the Guineas, nor do I believe that Kingman improved yesterday, it's just that some performances look less likely to be repeated than others and I think Kingman is a safer bet to reproduce his best form, particularly as he wasn't fully tested yesterday.

I think racing is probably the only sport/game where it's rarely accepted that the contenders can perform above their usual level on any given day. A mid table football team can perform like champions in one match, a lower ranked darts player can outperform The Power or MVG in one match. Instead with racing, the form is doubted/rubbished or reasons and excuses are looked for.

Obviously it takes someone who regularly talks out of his ***s to continue to accuse others of doing the same. Some arrogance that.
 
I think there are more things to a race result than the bare facts and tactics play an important part. As does the quality of the opposition. You only have to look at last years 2000 Gns where Glory Awaits (never won again) and Travel Brother (never won again) beat Toronado in what appeared to be a straight forward 2000 Gns to know outsiders do pop up on the day and Shifting Power may, I said may, have been one of those.
So considering there were no Group 1 winners and possibly only one Group 1 placed horse in yesterday's excuse for a Group 1 race history may show it was a poor one, excluding the winner of course.
Moonlight Cloud was a brilliant 7 furlong horse but needed all of the luck to win at a mile. Maybe Kingman is the same? He apparently had no luck at Newmarket but recompensed yesterday. Roll on Royal Ascot.

Of course not all Group 1 races are poor ones. Today the Prix D'Ispahan is a proper Gr1 race between horses that have won Gr1 races. Unlike the other Gr1 race on the Longchamp card the Prix St Alary where Group 3 horses oppose one another. Mind you only two in the lat 12 Prix St Alary's have been won by Group 1 horses so I suppose that's understandable.

Roll on Royal Ascot.

Why, who do you think will beat (or outstay) him there?

For those who think Kingman will be vulnerable over a stiff 1 mile trip at Ascot there are NOT, Toormore, War Command and any from Godolphin among others as yet unknown who may be able to ensure a true test. If they all turn up and Kingman wins then it can fairly reliably accepted that he stays a mile well. Of course if he loses then it will be claimed he stays the mile but was simply not the best horse or was ridden wrong.
This is a game of opinions and long may it remain so without those who disagree accusing the others of talking through there ***s.

and Kingman wins then it can fairly reliably accepted that he stays a mile well

So a horse can only be said to have stayed if it wins a race, in your opinion?

I think I wrote somewhere that all horses 'stay'. So I accept Kingman stays a mile. I'm sure if they ran it in the Eclipse against seaside donkeys he will stay 10 furlongs. It depends upon many factors whether or not a horse stays but that is just my opinion. You have yours and I have mine.
It wasn't me who entered Kingman in the July Cup. And if he gets beaten in the St James Palace will that be his next target? Who knows.

So how much would you say Australia was short of peak fitness that he couldn't beat a non stayer over 1 mile?

Australia may have been beaten on merit. AOB would have been gauging him from his own horses at home and with WC arguably his 2nd best miler then to beat him easily in the 2000 Gns may have been a replication of what is happening at home. Fitting blinkers on WC may or may not improve him only time will tell. That may be as good as he is. His racecourse form has never been great. Australia may be a long way in front of his contemporaries at home but I have as yet seen nothing on the racecourse to back up AOB's words.
Australia may win the Derby but only because the rest don't as yet look up to much that is where form qualification comes in. For Australia to live up ton AOB's thoughts about him he has some way still to go. The seeds of success are there but he still has it too prove.

Sounds a lot more reasonable than your post-Guineas post. I think Australia is already good enough to win most Derbys. As to O'Brien's opinion of him, as yet I would rate him the equal of Galileo, no better, but whether he goes on to achieve as much depends on circumstances, as well as Australia progressing.

Not sure how many Gr1 winners you expect to see in early season 3 year old only races to be honest.
Especially the St Alary where it is a 1m 2f race for fillies.

If I remember correctly, and I see no need thumbing endlessly back through threads, I was supporting the view that Australia would RUN in the 2000 Guineas not that he would actually WIN it. Although I did get sucked into backing him as a result of my own enthusiasm. A race with so many imponderables is not my usual betting medium. As time went on and his horses were getting beaten the writing started appearing on the walls that is why I thought 4/1 for the Guineas would be available and I took some of the 5/2 about the Derby.

Brandy well perhaps it shouldn't be a Group 1 then?

Maybe so.

Brig, what price do you think his true chance is now?

I will be surprised if it isn't a more competitive race than Camelot's and he started at 8/13. In Camelot's race Astrology and Bonfire were prominent in the betting but I think there are a host of horses this time that have shown decent form. Geoffrey Chaucer, Fascinating Rock, Western Hymn, True Story, Orchestra, Kingston Hill etc. For many of them the form hasn't necessarily worked out but Derby Day may be different. A bit like 2000 Gns day. JOB isn't the type of jockey who pulls success from failure, in fact quite the opposite, so the likes of Moore and Fallon will test his jockeyship to the full. He rides the best horse most of the time but doesn't always win. 
In think he will start at odds against and I think he will win. How he wins and what he does afterwards will tell us whether or not Australia lives up to AOB's claims.

Look at that race in Ireland. James Doyle rode a cracker quickening away a few lengths and getting Magician at it but only won by much less. Good jockeyship beats JOB again?

Thought the winner was always travelling like the winner and was proven on the ground, Magician was just running on when the race was over. Magician was far from impressive last time, especially as he'd already had a run in Meydan, it was always possible he hadn't improved in line with wfa, I didn't see anything wrong with the ride.

Well I will have to watch it again because it looked like JD quickened coming into the home straight and JOB accepted the issue far too soon and was only maintaining his position in 2nd before realising the horse in front was tying up but it was too late. In my opinion a champion jockey wins races he shouldn't have won and doesn't lose races he should have won. That isn't JOB.
And that is possible in the Derby.

John Magnier 'AOB asked JOB to ride Marvellous but JOB went with Palace'. Magic.

brigust1
I think that you are being very severe on young Joseph if you use his ride on Magician to support your argument. It is like a bog there and Magician is a top of the ground horse par excellance hence winning on firm at the Breeders Cup. I'm surprised that they ran Magician but there again I don't know why they ran Darwin yetserday either. He is also a fast ground specialist. At least they had the good sense to withdraw War Command and The Great war.

S of course I would never judge anyone or anything on one incident. I have followed AOB and JOB for a long time and I can assure you the number of times JOB has lost races I thought he should have won is well documented. A bit like AOB's decisions he makes so many that are  decidedly iffy. I know he trains lots of the best horses and many of them start as favourites but even if you don't accept my word about the mistakes AOB is quite happy to tell you about them anyway.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien added: "I'd always felt this horse wanted to be ridden back but Joseph and Derrick [Smith] said they wanted him to be ridden forward and they got their way today, so perhaps they were right." That was AOB's comment about St Nicholas Abbey after his 20th start. The list would be endless.

I'm surprised that they ran Magician but there again I don't know why they ran Darwin yetserday either.

O'Brien on ATR said he ran Magician to maintain the status of the race as a Group 1. Apparently it was in danger of being demoted as not attracting high enough rated horses

Change is on the cards Pedro, and not before time. It has been embarrassing in recent years.

In my (perhaps uneducated) opinion, it was a poor ride by the rider of the 2nd. Everyone knew what the winner's tactics were going to be, so why give him 7 lengths, on that ground.

Magician was only about 4 lengths behind Noble Mission going into the final bend, even if some people think that was too far behind, O'Brien was niggling before Doyle had even moved, when Doyle did kick just before the straight Noble Mission quickly doubled his lead while O'Brien was hard at work, it was no contest.

NB is not stopping at the moment, once it makes the run for home, reminds me of al kazeem last year. what a turn around for a horse was opposing last year, when tipped universal to beat it the first time, always like to see a horse go through a prolific stage of winning. do rate magician, was very impressive last year in ireland, proved wasnt a fluke in america, better on the fast ground IMO.

I do think JOB may have been a victim of a good ride by JD. Not all jockeys who lose do so because of a bad ride sometimes the winning jockey, or even beaten jockey, gives his horse an exceptional ride. However JOB must have known that JD would not only make the running but also that he would kick coming into the home straight. I haven't seen the race again but JOB niggling I think is more to do with his size than actually niggling. Fallon and Moore get down and in behind their horses to build up momentum before they actually require it and that is because they are able to get down into their mounts. JOB because of his size expects his horses to quicken for the whip too much where Moore and Fallon use it as the last resort. I also think that JOB's mindset going into a race is that he is on the best horse and rides it accordingly. Unlike the jockey on the other horse who employs whatever tactics he can to 'nick' the race off the best horse. If JOB was constantly riding the 'worst' horse he would learn to try to win 'against' the odds.
In saying that I have no doubt in my mind that if JOB's father wasn't the trainer he wouldn't even be a jockey let alone a champion jockey.

If anything then J Doyle might have been the one who made a mistake , he kicked too early and if he'd held Noble Mission together for longer before kicking on he could have been a wide margin winner. Similar type mistake to the one Queally made on Frankel in the SJP.
Energy of the horse not used to best effect.

Tink when they interviewed JD after the race they had discussed how best to beat Magician and it worked. By kicking clear when they did JOB had to decide whether to give his horse a really hard race on deep ground or take it relatively easy. He did the later so JD was right. I don't agree with your SJP analogy but there you are.
That is what I mean the connections of the winner planned how to beat the 2nd. I bet any money you like the connections of the 2nd never planned how to beat the winner.

I dont think NOT would have beaten Kingman yesterday the way the race was run and he may not have beaten him  however the race was run , this Horse has star quality . Talking of pre race  plans the Hanon team will need to come up with a good one to take the SJP at Ascot  , some of those eleven second furlongs  would help , i don't know what Australia is doing on the day   in question.

saturday*

FELTFAIR
Date Joined: 01 Jun 10 Add contact | Send message When: 20 May 14 21:18 Just looked at the current 16 runners and find it difficult to see past the three English Guineas entries.

No internet for 8 days just in case you were worried about me.

Pleased to see the gold standard was maintained in the Irish Guineas