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Irish 2000 Guineas
Irish 2000 Guineas
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Replies: 162
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I wonder if Australia will shorten again for the derby after that
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Guineas form to the pound, confirms Australia achieved plenty at Newmarket and will be surprised if doesn't go off 4/6 or something very short on Derby day.
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Shifting Power arguably let down the form of those who raced stand side in the Guineas. Certainly didn't frank it.
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Brilliant performance , superstar.
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I thought Shifting Power ran a very good race, he's hammered the rest including a proven soft ground horse in Mustajeeb and the RPT 2nd Johann Strauss. Kingman was just different gravy today. But the overall form of the english guineas is well up to standard.
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Maybe, though there is as yet not much evidence apart from for the far side runners. Could have been a huge bias towards the stand side that day.
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My feeling at the moment is that Kingman has just taken his form to a new level, the sort of level I was expecting him to take it to in the english guineas but we shall see. sets up hopefully for a re-match with NOT in the SJP as long as ground ok
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the fillies race just 0.26s slower though they didn't come all the way over for that race, I see Murtagh has that Purr Along now, looked a decent 2yo filly but then Muir couldn't even get a win out of her last season. Looks like she could be back to the form of her 2nd to certify now with Murtagh. anyway I'm off, was a good days racing with class performances from Kingman and Hot Streak. enjoyed it.
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Slowest run of the 3 8f races Kingman's.....nothing new learned. More hype to follow.
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Good point Roger de Bris
My thought today was Kingman wasn't stretched by the early pace. In England a combo of stronger pace and better ground didn't play to his change of pace. If anything it says to me that Australia caught a fading Kingman, while only plugging on himself. |
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roger, firstly it was the 2nd fastest time, the fillies was the slowest, secondly in the hcap they stayed far side and didn't waste ground in coming over like they did in the guineas and then there is the pace of the races. so would be silly to take the times at face value.
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A minor point
3rd ... Mustajeeb: Compton Place - Rifqah (Elusive Quality) 6th ... Great White Eagle: Elusive Quality - Gender Dance (Miesque's Son) 7th ... Michaelmas: Elusive Quality - Christmas Kid (Lemon Drop Kid) Racing Post website Elusive Quality progeny statistics wins Heavy 3; Soft 20; Gd-sft 16; Good 20; Gd-fm 67 Elusive Quality ran five times: Fast(1); Firm (2); Good (2). |
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Whatever race you want to use to compare, doesn't make a lot of difference. It's a nothing new learned race off a slow pace. Same as Toronado was in the Craven, and Australia was vs Free Eagle....
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Not easy to get any sectionals but I clocked the guineas just over 2 secs slower through the first 2f compared to the hcap and it did look quite steady early on, so that and coming all the way over to the chewed up ground on the stands side is probably why the time was slower.
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Roger, what rating did you give for Kingman in the greenham and the guineas?
How's he compare on your figures to previous guineas winner? |
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When Tracy Piggott interviewed John Gosden after the race he made a point about being very complimentary about the ground. He said it was a credit to the ground staff and the management. He said putting on the 6f, 5f, 6f sprints before the 2000 Guineas ensured that the earlier races used the ground up the stand rail, and left very nice ground yards off the rail. Gosden walked the ground beforehand, and his horse came up on the good ground at the outside of the field.
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give the hcap a different allowance for staying far side.
use the Gp3 & Guineas for their allowance. They are both fairly similar. even when you do this, you still have a slow pace for Guineas and a very fast finish for the winner. I don't do hcap ratings. |
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The more I check out the runners in the Irish 2000 the less impressed I am.
2nd ... Shifting Power four runs: Good (2); Gd/fm(2) His sire Compton Place ran 12 times: Firm(1); Gd/fm(5); Good(4); Gd/sft(1) (12th of 18); Soft(1) (12th of 12) Compton Place progeny wins Heavy 14; Soft 43; Gd/sft 59; Good 132; Gd/fm 219 The progeny win %s are much the same on each surface but imo it is telling that the trainers run them so often on firm |
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yes I made it around 25s for Kingman last 2f, decent stuff in that ground.
I didn't mean hcap ratings btw roger, I thought I had read you did your own speed figures and was just wondering if you had some decent figures for Kingman in previous races. |
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Yes, I do my own.
Havent got every track covered. I gave him 107 for debut, don't have Sandown or Newbury done, 112 for Uk Guineas, 112 for today. Looks like Newbury is his best one. Was hard to gauge him as the camerawork was non-existent for his 1st & 3rd runs. But what you got in the UK Guineas looks basically like what he is at the moment. He still needs to show he can cut it in a strongly run race on Good/GFm ground. Today was a nothing race for me. |
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would be silly to take the times at face value.
Completely agree Stevie, however, I don't have it as an improved performance but he couldn't have done much more than that in the circumstances. A lot of people are knocking the race after the event but I didn't see too much of that beforehand. |
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You knocked it yourself Figgis, saying you couldn't find anything to give Kingman a race.
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cheers roger,
Yes probably best not to get carried away by a wide margin win on testing ground, he's going to have to do it over a mile on quicker ground against proper G1 opposition. |
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I did, Sankara, at least I knocked the competitiveness of the race given Kingman's advantage over the field, I didn't knock the winner. The point is I said it before the race. It seems to me that Australia knockers would've jumped on the result if Kingman hadn't fired, just as they have now he's won impressively.
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I would say most form students supported him today. I did anyway.
He does seem to need a certain set of conditions to show his best though, a bit like Celtic Swing maybe? Maybe he just had an off-day in the UK Guineas...and he can still be just as good on better ground. It's doubtful though at the moment. |
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It was a very good run in the Guineas, he's just no superstar, I don't see why he should be crabbed for that.
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So nobody can have a view on Australia that is influenced by events? People are either inflexible Australia knockers (and therefore disagree with you) or Australia fans, and therefore escape your criticism. Not sure who's being most rigid in his thinking here.
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Sankara, I think you'll find I disagreed plenty with brigust when he went from calling Australia a good bet in the Guineas to echoing O'Brien's comments about him being a wonder horse. Anybody can say Australia is a poor bet for the Derby if that's what they think, he might be, I'm saying some Australia opposers were always going to knock the race whatever happened.
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I do think sankara made a valid point in saying shifting power may have let down the form of those that raced near side in the english guineas by getting beaten much further by Kingman today, though with the very different ground it's difficult to be sure of such things and he did beat the rest off fairly easily. Shifting Power isn't any better than a g2 horse on my figures but I still think Australia beating him 2 and a bit over a mile is a very good performance for a horse that should excel over middle distances.
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But you're saying that based on the evidence-free assumption that those who disagree with you are biased.
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Just saying he didn't frank the form Stevie - there may be any number of reasons why he didn't, only one of which is that his side in the Guineas was flattered.
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his side in the Guineas was flattered.
The Grey Gatsby btn 6 lengths on the stands side and won the Dante? Only other runners out of the Newmarket Guineas so far just finished 1-2 in the Irish version, well clear. |
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I never said that at all, I said some people who are opposing Australia would've said the Guineas was crap if it hadn't been franked today, as it was endorsed they are looking for another way to downgrade it. Do you think that if the fav had been well beat today that everyone who thinks Australia is just hype would've excused him because of the ground and said it shouldn't detract from the Guineas? As I don't.
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Well I never I get back and Figgis is still talking b ollo cks with a forked tongue. Ffs Figgis give it a rest.
This is what I said about Australia and AOB. Not your twisted version. brigust1 • October 17, 2013 5:31 PM BST I think you are getting too over excited Sandown. I am just quoting what the facts are. If you think War Command should be the Guineas favourite then get stuck in. If you prefer to listen to JOB, not that he said anything, then that's Ok by me. These points are just an extrapolation of the facts, comments, form and bookies prices. none are mine. I am putting them before you and you can rubbish them at will. But if you want my view? I know you are wanting me to proffer it so I will. I couldn't back War Command for the Guineas with your money. I couldn't back Australia because he is too short and as yet the form is untested. The same applies to Kingman. If they ran the race tomorrow between those three over the straight mile at Newmarket I would back Australia. It's no use me saying I will see you here next May because I don't think you will want to remember this thread. On a human nature basis I can see absolutely no way AOB will sit down with the owners of the fastest and best horse in his yard and utter the words Derrinstown. It won't happen because he will be confining his comments to the bin. brigust1 • October 17, 2013 9:12 PM BST Felt I haven't had a bet and where AOB is concerned I swerve all ante post bets because he is unreadable. I have just logically looked at ALL of the information available as of today. Without bias or preference. I have noted AOB's comments. The betting market and Ladbrokes prices, knowing their Coolmore connection. When the horses ran first and their prices in their races. The form of their races and the possibility of more to come. I have also taken on board the fact that they are going softly softly and stopping running this early in the season. I think they know they have a very good horse and will storm the top races next year. He has speed, according to AOB, he is guaranteed to stay and I haven't seen or heard of anything else out of the ordinary. I know AOB makes wild comments but given he has a top 2 year old to compare with he is in a much stronger position than anyone else. And above all what have seen so far, excluding Australia, has looked workmanlike at best. All in all Australia comes out clearly ahead. So, if the race was run tomorrow he is the horse I would be backing and be pleased with the 7's available. Like I have said 'It's a no brainer'. You know it makes complete sense. |
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Figgis, had Shifting Power beaten Kingman I think some may have claimed it as a boost to Australia.
Pedro, TGG was on the far side in the guineas. For me, going in to the race today I had Mustajeeb 5lb below Shifting Power so I'm happy that today's result confirms my rating on the english guineas. Now I notice Mustajeeb had an official rating the same as Shifting Power and this is partly due to beating older horses when getting too much wfa and I do see some 3yos getting enhanced ratings because of this and no doubt the official handicapper will rate the race through the 3rd and we may get some more overrated horses. I still believe the english guineas was up to standard and the 1st 2 were better than the rest by further based on sectionals and nothing I've seen today changes that. |
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Well I guess it distracts from your lay of the non stayer, eh brig
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with WC a non runner today, the forecast was a no-brainer, guineas form was superb, going forward, will have to see what kingman
has to beat next time it hits a race course. cross that bridge when come to it. |
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brigust1 • May 20, 2014 12:53 PM BST
A bit of a problem for me. A race I often bet in but this year is a bit odd at the moment. I think Kingman will fail to stay unless the race is particularly weak. I think Shifting Power will fail to stay unless the race cuts up. I don't think War Command is good enough to win a classic unless it really cuts up. So that's the first three in the betting out of the way. However there is only the Weld horse and the Lyons horses running for me if they all run so another strategy may need to be employed. If the race was today and they all lined up and the going was good I would lay the front three in the betting in running at odds on. Kingman will undoubtedly be held up until late and possibly Shifting Power would as well and I guess wearing blinkers War Command will be prominent. So there is every chance all three could trade short in running. And even then all three could lose. So if only one trades short and wins I would lose but not much. If two traded short and one won I would win and the same with all three. Then it could be good. We'll have to wait and see what runs. That is what I wrote. All horses 'Stay' it just depends upon the quality of the opposition. Shifting Power was 50/1 in the 2000 Gns so I think that pretty much sums up the quality of the opposition. |
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I would've thought summing up the quality of opposition should be a requisite for any punter pre-race. As War Command, a horse you said wasn't good enough, was the only significant absentee I can't think what changed.
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I can't think is about right. With two likely non stayers in the top three in the betting I couldn't see them being allowed to dictate the pace between them. With WC wearing cheek pieces for the first time and AOB having Johann Strauss, Australia's pace setter at home, in the field I thought the race would be solidly run. WC didn't run and it wasn't.
The race Shifting Power won, Free handicap, there were 6 runners and the 4 that have run since have all been well beaten. Kingman bolted up today. Considering Mustajeeb (-3lb)finished 3 lengths behind War Command last season and WC finished 5 lengths behind Kingman in the 2000 Gns for Kingman to beat Mustajeeb by 7 lengths wasn't a surprise. |