Ah I see, so a more strongly run race would've resulted in a 7+ lengths turnaround in form? Only as War Command wasn't deemed good enough and you've already said Mustajeeb is a worse horse than him then we'd have to look back to Johann Strauss to be running for you. Meaning a strongly run race could've resulted in a 13 lengths turnaround in form. Interesting

Fair enough

you could also argue Obliterator's flop adds substance to the fact those 2 horses were overrated in the Fielden and benefited from a pace collapse that day. Also Kingston Hill's RPT win also looks weak with Johann Strauss and Dolce  N Karma looking out of their depth.
The main problem is trying to find positives for the other derby runners. Shifting Power finishing 5l behind Kingman on very soft ground at the curragh compared to finishing 2 1/2 l behind on faster ground at Newmarket isn't anything to worry about imo. The overall form of the guineas looks pretty good compared to the other trials.

Kingman won very easily, nothing in the race yesterday would have beaten him but the tactics employed were odd to say the least.

The place not to be was the stands rail. And that is where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th raced, Shifting Power, Mustajeeb and Johann Strauss are not strong stayers, in my opinion but their connections say they think they are.
Then why would they set off at a sedate pace for 4 furlongs knowing it would play into Kingman's hands?

I think John Gosden has played a blinder. He told the press that Kingman would be pulled up if he didn't act on the ground and I think that changed the mindset of the others connections. Now there was a winning possibility so Hughes rode the right race IF Kingman didn't act.
Unfortunately Kingman did act and he was beaten. Surely, considering Shifting Power is being considered for the French Derby and also according to connections he is crying out for a trip that making the race a proper stamina test and not a 4 furlong sprint would have been the way to go. The same goes for Mustajeeb and for Johann Strauss.

Brandy at Newmarket you must kick on coming down the hill because asking your horse to quicken up the hill is harder. That applies even more so on a suspect stayer by flying down the hill you gain enough lead to hang on. He didn't and was outstayed up the hill. Hannon knows this and I think Ascot will suit NOT. Real good tactical contest coming up.

Yes I agree Brigust regarding the dip but with a furlong to go he was still trailing Australia and outstayed the derby horse.

I'm not saying the far side were superior.
It's hard to say if there was a track bias on the day because no other race split like they did in the guineas.

All I an saying is Australia cover the first 5 furlongs in 51:23 and Kingman in 51:55. Which gives Australia the best part of 2 lengths.
Kingman then ran the final 3 furlongs quicker than Australia but didnt head him until inside the final furlong. Which isn't the sign of a non stayer to me.

brandyontherocks
I think the Newmarket form looks quite solid and will be backing Kingman to beat his Guineas conqueror in the St James. 

I would also back Kingman to beat NoT next time, unfortunately it looks like the market has reacted to yesterday's win so I don't know if Kingman will be any value on the day. I'd back Kingman to beat NoT, not because there was any fluke about NoT's performance in the Guineas, nor do I believe that Kingman improved yesterday, it's just that some performances look less likely to be repeated than others and I think Kingman is a safer bet to reproduce his best form, particularly as he wasn't fully tested yesterday.

I think racing is probably the only sport/game where it's rarely accepted that the contenders can perform above their usual level on any given day. A mid table football team can perform like champions in one match, a lower ranked darts player can outperform The Power or MVG in one match. Instead with racing, the form is doubted/rubbished or reasons and excuses are looked for.

Roll on Royal Ascot.

Why, who do you think will beat (or outstay) him there?

and Kingman wins then it can fairly reliably accepted that he stays a mile well

So a horse can only be said to have stayed if it wins a race, in your opinion?

So how much would you say Australia was short of peak fitness that he couldn't beat a non stayer over 1 mile?

Sounds a lot more reasonable than your post-Guineas post. I think Australia is already good enough to win most Derbys. As to O'Brien's opinion of him, as yet I would rate him the equal of Galileo, no better, but whether he goes on to achieve as much depends on circumstances, as well as Australia progressing.

If I remember correctly, and I see no need thumbing endlessly back through threads, I was supporting the view that Australia would RUN in the 2000 Guineas not that he would actually WIN it. Although I did get sucked into backing him as a result of my own enthusiasm. A race with so many imponderables is not my usual betting medium. As time went on and his horses were getting beaten the writing started appearing on the walls that is why I thought 4/1 for the Guineas would be available and I took some of the 5/2 about the Derby.

Brandy well perhaps it shouldn't be a Group 1 then?

Brig, what price do you think his true chance is now?

Look at that race in Ireland. James Doyle rode a cracker quickening away a few lengths and getting Magician at it but only won by much less. Good jockeyship beats JOB again?

Well I will have to watch it again because it looked like JD quickened coming into the home straight and JOB accepted the issue far too soon and was only maintaining his position in 2nd before realising the horse in front was tying up but it was too late. In my opinion a champion jockey wins races he shouldn't have won and doesn't lose races he should have won. That isn't JOB.
And that is possible in the Derby.

brigust1
I think that you are being very severe on young Joseph if you use his ride on Magician to support your argument. It is like a bog there and Magician is a top of the ground horse par excellance hence winning on firm at the Breeders Cup. I'm surprised that they ran Magician but there again I don't know why they ran Darwin yetserday either. He is also a fast ground specialist. At least they had the good sense to withdraw War Command and The Great war.

I'm surprised that they ran Magician but there again I don't know why they ran Darwin yetserday either.

O'Brien on ATR said he ran Magician to maintain the status of the race as a Group 1. Apparently it was in danger of being demoted as not attracting high enough rated horses

In my (perhaps uneducated) opinion, it was a poor ride by the rider of the 2nd. Everyone knew what the winner's tactics were going to be, so why give him 7 lengths, on that ground.

NB is not stopping at the moment, once it makes the run for home, reminds me of al kazeem last year. what a turn around for a horse was opposing last year, when tipped universal to beat it the first time, always like to see a horse go through a prolific stage of winning. do rate magician, was very impressive last year in ireland, proved wasnt a fluke in america, better on the fast ground IMO.

If anything then J Doyle might have been the one who made a mistake , he kicked too early and if he'd held Noble Mission together for longer before kicking on he could have been a wide margin winner. Similar type mistake to the one Queally made on Frankel in the SJP.
Energy of the horse not used to best effect.