Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
17 May 14
07:02
Joined:
Date Joined:
10 Nov 07
anyone like anything here?? have been studying this all week and have decided olympic glory cannot win...really think his ascot win was vastly overrated on bottomless ground and think on better ground he is vulnerable at the 11/10 on offer on better ground today...
the trouble for the layers is we haven't got a whole lot running for us and although i think i maybe mug betting with my selection montiridge i am sure he will be in the frame back on better ground...yes he is a group 2 horse but he has everything in his favour here and fully expect hughes to bounce him out today, after all there is no pace and he has ran well on the easy lead in the past...
i think the sandown run was near group 1 form on soft and shouldn't be underestimated with proven group classed mudlarks thrashed and connections of tullius must be cursing as he could of gone very well here on his favoured soft going...yes tullius won well but he had race fitness and his favoured conditions to beat the good horse...no such luck today and i fully expect a turn around in the form
people will argue the moonlight cloud form with olympic glory at face value is ideal here and his form on the better ground against that rival entitles him to win this easy.... it isn't and was overrated at the time imo...bare in mind moonlight cloud herself is a soft ground horse herself(and best at 7f)and the fabre horse has proved to be just moderate moving forwards so for me it is just basic group 1 form imo...he is a very good horse imo on soft ground and just a middling horse on better ground
the other horses who want soft are top notch tonto, tullius and chopin best form have been under these conditions...i think it is fair to say we have the edge
the naughty one here is verrazano who is priced up on a not off today (should be shorter) for royal ascot after last years debacle with war command(don't be fooled)...
i think they will be fools to pass this race over because really he is a breeding horse and they will not find a weaker group 1 on turf this summer which is what they want to achieve after his overrated achievements on dirt of which he has been overrated imo(rpr124 i'll crack the jokes) achieved off of slow fractions against mediocre horses....when the proper pace was on in the breeders cup dirt mile he was found out to be the average group1 dirt horse he clearly is imo...his big rating was achieved on easy fractions against poor horses imo...however that maybe enough to beat the slow horses he encounters today and thus achieve the group1 goal for coolmore and give them a group 1 dirt/turf horse...money money money money!!
he is by more than ready who is renowned for turf breeding horses so has to be respected and imo this horse has nothing to do with the lads having it off today but more the value if he can get a group1 turf victory and against these group2/3 horses he has every chance imo so have had to play him not because i like him, just because we haven't got a lot running for us and they will be foolish to pass this over
so anyway i have played heavy on montiridge ew and a win bet on verrazano to make a profit...olympic glory - a horse i have always liked will probably shove it up me but will take my chance and hope he is tenderly handled for another day
any thoughts???
the trouble for the layers is we haven't got a whole lot running for us and although i think i maybe mug betting with my selection montiridge i am sure he will be in the frame back on better ground...yes he is a group 2 horse but he has everything in his favour here and fully expect hughes to bounce him out today, after all there is no pace and he has ran well on the easy lead in the past...
i think the sandown run was near group 1 form on soft and shouldn't be underestimated with proven group classed mudlarks thrashed and connections of tullius must be cursing as he could of gone very well here on his favoured soft going...yes tullius won well but he had race fitness and his favoured conditions to beat the good horse...no such luck today and i fully expect a turn around in the form
people will argue the moonlight cloud form with olympic glory at face value is ideal here and his form on the better ground against that rival entitles him to win this easy.... it isn't and was overrated at the time imo...bare in mind moonlight cloud herself is a soft ground horse herself(and best at 7f)and the fabre horse has proved to be just moderate moving forwards so for me it is just basic group 1 form imo...he is a very good horse imo on soft ground and just a middling horse on better ground
the other horses who want soft are top notch tonto, tullius and chopin best form have been under these conditions...i think it is fair to say we have the edge
the naughty one here is verrazano who is priced up on a not off today (should be shorter) for royal ascot after last years debacle with war command(don't be fooled)...
i think they will be fools to pass this race over because really he is a breeding horse and they will not find a weaker group 1 on turf this summer which is what they want to achieve after his overrated achievements on dirt of which he has been overrated imo(rpr124 i'll crack the jokes) achieved off of slow fractions against mediocre horses....when the proper pace was on in the breeders cup dirt mile he was found out to be the average group1 dirt horse he clearly is imo...his big rating was achieved on easy fractions against poor horses imo...however that maybe enough to beat the slow horses he encounters today and thus achieve the group1 goal for coolmore and give them a group 1 dirt/turf horse...money money money money!!
he is by more than ready who is renowned for turf breeding horses so has to be respected and imo this horse has nothing to do with the lads having it off today but more the value if he can get a group1 turf victory and against these group2/3 horses he has every chance imo so have had to play him not because i like him, just because we haven't got a lot running for us and they will be foolish to pass this over
so anyway i have played heavy on montiridge ew and a win bet on verrazano to make a profit...olympic glory - a horse i have always liked will probably shove it up me but will take my chance and hope he is tenderly handled for another day
any thoughts???
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 145
|
By:
Montridge e/w looks good , agree there are question marks about OG readiness first time up gl
|
|
By:
Think Montiridge and Chopin could be placed. as both Trainers have good record in the race a race fit OG obviously the danger
|
|
By:
I've backed OG to win at 5/4. He is in the same ownership as Toronado who they are keen to keep apart so I would guess OG will be fit and ready for this as Toronado will be their Queen Anne runner. There are doubts about whether the ground is too quick for him but some of the others have questions to answer aswell.
|
|
By:
I've backed OG to win at 5/4. He is in the same ownership as Toronado who they are keen to keep apart so I would guess OG will be fit and ready for this as Toronado will be their Queen Anne runner. There are doubts about whether the ground is too quick for him but some of the others have questions to answer aswell.
|
|
By:
Olympic Glory is a worthy fav for me. At the time I thought he might've been flattered by the run at Deauville, running on when the race was more or less over, but his win in the QE2 confirmed that he wasn't flattered at all, and I have that performance as another improvement on his Deauville run. It was run in a very good time for the ground and I don't think there was any fluke about it. I suppose the improvement could be attributed to the soft ground, but the Deauville run was on ground approaching good to firm so personally I don't believe he needs it soft. In my view he only needs to repeat the QE2 run to make him very hard to beat here, improvement isn't necessary unless the Coolmore horse is capable of something better.
The big unknown is whether OG will be the same horse as a 4yo. The yard will know more than us but even they can't always be sure. As a punter I don't find it easy to put a price on such things. You can use statistical analysis and estimate a price based on that, but the record of the trainer in these matters will also come into play and ultimately each horse is an individual. All things considered I wouldn't say he's an unfair price. |
|
By:
OG has won fto the last 2 years so fitness won,t be an issue imo, he does show better form with cut, and for that reason I will side with his stablemate for today.
|
|
By:
Just watched Verrazano video's on You Tube, Looks an absolute powerhouse of a horse, but price looks a tad too generous if they really expect him to win today.
|
|
By:
I don't believe fitness will be an issue either. His best run was the QE2 but prior to that I think everyone would agree his best run was at Deauville. The ground may have been described as good that day but French descriptions are notorious for overstating the moisture in the ground and on the clock there is no was the ground could've been softer than the fast side of good. As the ground today at Newbury is described as good with a stick reading of 7.2 I'll be surprised if it rides quicker than at Deauville. I have OG with a huge 10lbs advantage over Montiridge on last year's form. Maybe Montiridge can narrow the advantage this year but I wouldn't expect him to surpass an in form OG.
|
|
By:
*no way
|
|
By:
figgis if there was some soft in the going description today, do you think OG would be trading shorter in price?
|
|
By:
Newbury going now G/F
|
|
By:
O'brien does not Train Chopin , Pricewise likes his chance , at least we can be sure he will go for it.
|
|
By:
Alleged, yes I do, but there are plenty of occasions when either the punters are put away by going descriptions, or they wrongly place too much importance on it, Moonlight Cloud and The Fugue being two recent examples from last year.
|
|
By:
It was run in a very good time for the ground and I don't think there was any fluke about it. totally agree however you have to like that ground to perform how he did...i just question the horses beaten kinsbarns, elusive kate and new approach were inconvenienced that day by the ground so i am just a tad cautious especially when dealing with different circumstances which he faces today as they aren't his true ideal...and he is even money
the deuville run was good but the winner was slowing that day at the line and have struggled with the race myself, although do believe the race was honest you playing the 11/10 figg?? very poor turn out tbf |
|
By:
I've not played yet, harry, and it's not the kind of price that really whets my appetite but I'll have a few quid on if there's a slight drift. I think it's a very good price on last year's form, but if I'm having a really decent bet at short odds I prefer to have some racecourse evidence that season. I'm sure he won't lack for fitness but you can never be absolutely sure that a horse will have the same ability when it hasn't seen a racecourse for more than 6 months.
|
|
By:
The ground is definitely the fast side of good on the straight but, for me, not quite as quick as it was at Deauville last year. I also wouldn't have it any quicker than when OG finished second in the Coventry, despite the official description saying it was slower that day.
|
|
By:
fair play agree good price against these horses...
i just don't see an angle playing him today...he should win if translating his ascot or deuville run but i'd say his ascot run was exaggerated on that ground and he will have to run much faster today on this faster going...race lacks depth though class wise... have struggled to find a pace angle all week so could get messy up front and in behind as a consequence, so am hopeful hughes dictates the fractions up front and has gone well in the past when ridden prominently |
|
By:
On now, harry, can't pass up that price.
|
|
By:
fair play go steady pal...he is getting very warm
|
|
By:
tames lions this game
|
|
By:
well done all winners done it well
|
|
By:
solid winner well done all who went for him, Tulius ran well in second as well .
|
|
By:
I missed the race. Thoughts on Verrazano?
Off to watch Arsenal. |
|
By:
I thought Verrazano ran well. It was a slow pace all the same, but there ought to be more to come from him.
|
|
By:
I would treat the result with a great deal of caution. The 2nd was 2nd in the Lincoln and hasn, t looked like a
Group 1 horse before. The winner won easily though wasn, t running away from the 2nd who was race fit. It was a Group 1 race in name only. With the winner the only Group 1 winnrr in it. Caution. |
|
By:
Some input before a race is always handy.
|
|
By:
A Group1 race with a sole Group1 winner at shade of odds having his first run of the season on ground thought to be a bit lively for him. What possible input could I provide? Everything was highlighted and done to death. You either took the chance or left it. Nothing I could say would alter anyone, s oppinions that is why you seldom get me on these threads. I just read that Sintonian hadn, t seen the race so profered my views. Nothing to be seen here.
|
|
By:
*opinions. Sorry about the double entry, new tablet.
|
|
By:
I didn't have an opinion to offer.
|
|
By:
Neither did I before the race G. Just thought the result should be treated with some caution.
|
|
By:
I wasn't referring to you, Graeme, as you had simply answered Sintonian's question regarding Verrazano, he hadn't asked for a jaundiced view on current day Gp1s
 |
|
By:
'If there are so many prizes on offer, the prizes cannot be so highly prized'.
Change is afoot. Now is the time to construct a Pattern for the next 40 years. |
|
By:
Last week in the Racing post. I am not alone.
|
|
By:
So start a thread on it and bang your drum there, instead of jumping in on threads concerning races you have no opinion of the outcome beforehand.
|
|
By:
Listen to yourself will you? When you voted to tell others when and where they should post their opinions. Like everyone else I had an opinion BEFORE the race but felt it wasn't any more helpful than was already posted. Had someone posted the same thoughts I have AFTER race I wouldn't have posted anything.
You really should listen to yourself Figgis. |
|
By:
*When were YOU voted tomtell others when they should post their opinions? Figgis.
|
|
By:
Opinions? It's the same ****ing one over and over again. In fact I can't remember you offering a pre race opinion on any race this season, only O'Brien's opinion, which you have now adopted as your own.
|
|
By:
I always thought a forum was where you put forward your views. I didn't it had to be qualified.
And if you ever read what I wrote you would know I seldom bet at this time of year and almost never give advice about bets. Again didn't know that was a qualification. And I have never adopted AOBs view as my own. As you know I was talking about the 2000 gns and that has been run. Stop being such a pompous t wat ffs Figgis. |
|
By:
I seldom bet at this time of year
Not really the credentials then of somebody who can expect their opinion to be taken seriously post race. About as much use as the pundits you've rightly criticised, who never seem to have a clue what will happen before a race but can speak with such certainty about what's just played out. almost never give advice about bets. Neither do most on here unless it's asked for, however, most do put up their views of how they see the outcome of a race, or what they see as value beforehand, it is a betting forum after all, or it's supposed to be. |