Ectot beat Teletext a neck. which just confirms that it wasn't a fluke that given a clear run Adelaide would have won .. that puts 8 lengths between the top two .. or whatever way you cut it, 12lbs ? .. it's just a very big amount to bridge, even with one improving and the other maybe struggling to hold her best.

I could give Ectot + 6lbs easy, and take 2lbs from Taghrooda .. still leaves 4lbs

Pondering why Chicquita is in this and concluded that it's just to give Joseph a ride in the race on something with nothing to lose.

Treve is said not to be the same Horse as last year , well she was the same Horse as last year when she ran Cirrus des aigles  to a neck on  very soft ground  earlier in the year ( that Horse ran Fankel to a length and a half in his last ever race at Ascot  )  ,  her ascot run on unsuitably firm ground again over ten furlongs was was not greatly disappointing ,  in fact she should have been withdrawn, she was looked after by Dettori in that one  , her last run in PRIX VERMEILLE followed a six week summer break ( according to the Trainer )  she was not fit imo ,  she needs  a drop of rain tomorrow , if she gets it ,  she can win again  from a good draw , Ectot  is to be  respected along with  Taghrooda and the runners from Japan but will stick firmly to last years great winner. GL

Taghrooda is probably 5lbs higher than Tapestry ..

Brandyontherocks, It is a very important form line in any discussion relating to Treve . Treve showed in that battle with Cirrus that she had not gone backwards , recall that the third Horse behind cirrus and frankel when they clashed  was Nathaniel  who had run Arc  winner Danedreanm  to a nose in the KG . Treve should not have been asked to tackle cirrus so  early in the season over ten on very soft ground , that was clearly a trainer Error , the ground at  Ascot  when she was beaten by the Fugue was  described  by the Trainer just a couple of days ago as Hard -  and yet she ran the Filly   Even her trainer will get it right once in a Season , hope it is tomorrow .

Treve is a great favourite of mine but she is a 4yo filly and history is littered with 4yo fillies kept in training after sweeping all before them at 3 that fail to reproduce the form. I have still not made up my mind this year so I would love to see her win again but the signs are that she is not the same horse this time. The Treve that won the Arc would blow away any other horse in training including Cirrus des Aigles.

Mac99
My point was that I don't think Cirrus getting beat 1 1/2 lengths was a true contrast between the two horses. On good ground Frankel would be at least 7 lengths better.
But that's by the by.
In Treve's first run this season I agree it proved she hasn't gone backwards, but this season if she wants to win the Arc again she has to go forward.
Last season she was receiving 8lbs from the older horses this year she is level weights. Last years performance isn't good enough to win again this year she has to improve with age.
She won last year by 5L receiving 8lbs. So on a strict handicapping point of view at level weights she would have been beaten 3L. So improvement is needed now she does not have the 3 year old allowance. On her last run I think its a huge leap of faith to suggest she is an improved filly from last year.

2. About .3cm (greater than .25 and less than .6cm)
3. Light rain from 19:00 to 22:00

Ectot ew 7/1 hills 1st 4 my bet of the year most stats point to this horse and think it will improve a bundle on its previous run gl all

Frankie and the old snail have little  relevance to the Arc .

Maybe Frankel was not at his best that day and maybe neither was CDA but i agree that was about as good as he was imo .

dont forget a year earlier Christophe Soumillon  had lost his  52k prize money when beating SYT in the race so OP  did not get unduly stuck into him ,nor did ^^^^^^^^^^^^ last year imo .

agree re too many doubts...very open looking race this year

tbh, after watching the racing on the Rowley Mile today, I have to say I think the size of the field and the nature of the course all make it too unfair in my eyes. Should be limited to 10 / 12 runners with the way they have to run. I'd really love to see that.

Roger Varian has a proper horse .. would he be in the top 12 ? .. probably, just. He deserves a better crack and that's not pocket talk because I've layed him at the price I backed him, but I'm sick he doesn't get a proper run.

Dolniya's getting backed strongly. Some chunky amounts coming at BF now. I love this stage, after all the waiting.

Sometimes things seem too good to be true but i've had to avail myself to some of the 7/1 & 13/2 available with the firms offering 4 places, Ectot.

Already on ante-post obviously so it could be bleak if he is out of the frame! Nice to see his trainer and jockey have a win today though!

I think you're right. I can see why the draw would have caused Tag to lengthen a bit, but
I'm tempted to have a real poke at the current price.

Have stuck with the improving french 3 y o with a good draw(and pacemaker) System.

Ectot at 8.4 for me. :)

Good Luck everyone

Good morning all,The greastest day on the European racing calender,getting the TV coverage it deserves