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War Command
War Command
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Was a reason given for Kingman`s absence from the Dewhurst and Racing Post?
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I haven't been a War Command fan really and he's more of a Giants Causeway type to my eyes - and GC only got beat by a really top class Guineas performance from Kings Best.
Don't get me wrong he's no superstar miler and maybe Kingman or Toormore can outspeed him but neither of them have convinced me enough to suggest they should be shorter in the betting and unless a currently unconsidered horse suddenly appears on the scene (Golan, Entrepreneur etc) then WC looks a very solid Guineas horse at 11/1 (SPBet)to my eyes. It's not often a horse goes off odds on for the Dewhurst and wins comfortably and yet is still double figures for the Guineas.  |
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as a raw speed figure, I had his Dewhurst about the same as his Coventry win.... but fair bit lower on WFA ratings, so agree with you Figgis that War Command not improved since June.
I didn't do speed figures in 2001, but looking at Rock's form, he wouldn't have been an obvious Guineas winner in waiting having lost 2 of his first 5 starts in Grp 2/3 company before landing a poor 5 runner Group 1 on Arc day and scrambling home from 2 stablemates in a photo in the Dewhurst. If he had been a classic winner to be, I suspect Coolmore's largesse would not have extended to "gifting" a half share in the horse to Ferguson as a 2yo..... Comparing the two at this stage, I would have to rate War command at least his equal ... though accepting that Rock improved a fair bit to be a fantastic 3yo which is something we don't know that War command can do yet. Can only assume that Kingman has had a setback which Gosden / Grimthorpe don't want to report. You would want everything to go right in the run up to a Guineas including an injury free 2yo career, so enthusiasm for Kingman has been dimmed somewhat. They are hardly sent on holiday over the winter are they (?), I presume kept in steady work whilst growing / maturing, hence Kingman sadly gone down the pecking order for me |
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Can't agree with that Ped.
The Rock showed lots of potential as a 2 year old. Went off at 1-2 against Hawk Wing. Won the Gymcrack, Got beat by Dubai Destination trying to give him 4lbs at Donny (hell of an effort), dotted up on desperate ground on Arc day and won the Dewhurst after a very long season. Couldn't put War Command in the same bracket as that. |
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Yes, the reticence of Kingman's connections leads me to think the problem is something that could affect his stud value, which makes me think it's more than a monor problem. Some people seem keen to lay him on here even if the books don't. How are your ratings looking for your top 5 Guineas contenders?
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Yes, I agree, brandy, Dubai Destination was no plodder either. As for the Ferguson gift, my own view at the time was not that they underestimated ROG but that maybe they weren't confident of him making it as a 3yo, just a guess.
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116 - War Command
110 - Kingman 110 - Berkshire 107 - No Nay Never (but don't think he will stay 1m) 105 - Toormore Ferguson's name appeared in the Rock's ownership after his third start. I vaguely remember something about Coolmore wanting Ferguson to make the Gimcrack dinner speech.... which he won on his next start. Or am I completely making that up? |
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I think the Fergy angle was just a publicity stunt. Coolmore are not in this for prize money just the breeding, and they kept 100% of his breeding rights.
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.... though Fergie thought he owned 50% of him, breeding rights and all.....
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Ped, I think that's right. I just thought as they started the horse off as early as April and ran him seven times as a 2yo they saw him as more of a 2yo, but that's just my guess.
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Putting my revised ratings into a Timeform type scale mine are
121 - Toormore 119 - Be Ready 117 - Shifting Power 116 - Kingman 116 - War Command Toormore and Be Ready have already reached a level of previous winners at this stage so those two are my pick against the field, the others need to make more than average improvement. It's difficult to know if Kingman is better than that as his rating was achieved on debut. Like you say the setback is a concern, likewise the setback with Be Ready, plus Godolphin's poor reputation for horses remaining on the injury list. |
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I'd agree with that, Figgis, Coolmore would never give away a potential classic winner / stallion to someone outside of the clan.... not without putting it in black and white which they obviously never did. When they gave that share to Ferguson, they never thought Rock would turn out to be as good as he did.
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you were keen on Somewhat, Figgis, is he not anywhere near your top group?
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Ped, yes but I think they already knew he was a very good 2yo and they tried to make the most of that, which was why they kept him to 5 and 6f for his first four starts. My guess is they probably thought anything he achieved as a 3yo was a bonus. His form as a 2yo was better than that of War Command, imo.
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Sorry, yes I have Somewhat also on 116. I've kept him on that mark even though he didn't run up to it in the Royal Lodge. It's possible he'll need cut in the ground to show his best, whether he does or not he's a Johnstone horse and you know my opinion on that regarding classic potential
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*Johnston
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What is the setback that Kingman has had?
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Ped, I've also downgraded Shifting Power slightly. That Newmarket card caused me a few problems, as originally I had Shifting Power where I have him now, but it meant I had Ocean Tempest on quite a high figure at the weights when second to Angelic Upstart. When he ran below that on his next start at Wolves I started to think maybe the race had been wind assisted but as things panned out Ocean Tempest has run up to his high figure since, they'd just been running him over too far a trip. I still think Shifting Power is a good horse in the making and has been greatly underrated so far, the Guineas might be just beyond him though.
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Brandy, they're keeping that to themselves.
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Be Ready scoped badly I think Figgis. No injury as such.
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Oh right, cheers sint. Still got to have a concern about Godolphin runners getting crocked before their targets but that's definitely more encouraging.
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How depressing. Fig three of your top four haven't Gr1 form and the top horse's form is suspect. Surely the best has not been seen yet? Or is the stranglehold AOB has on the business that much?
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Brig, it's nothing unusual that they all haven't got Gp1 form, which can sometimes be overrated anyway. In fact in the 80s it was even more regular for high rated 2yos to have no Gp1 form. As for Toormore's form being suspect, isn't it the norm that there are always doubters about any highly rated 2yo?
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I said after Ascot that WC would be a G1 horse. There were more than a few who scoffed. He has now won a G1.
Can he win the 2000 gns. ? On what he showed at Ascot, yes he can. He needs fast ground to be at his best.On that run I projected him to a mid 120 horse i.e around 125. I still believe that he is capable of running to that.His subsequent runs have not really improved on that performance so far. He has the size and scope to make up into a better 3yr old.Whether he wins the first classic or not I'm sure that he can win another G1. |
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Well in the first discussions on War Command I likened him to Three Valleys, who was the last horse I'd seen win impressively in this race but who I thought was severely flattered. Funnily enough he also went on to finish an odds on third in the Phoenix. He did go on to win a weak Middle Park (subsequently disqualified) and second in a poor Dewhurst. I couldn't rule out WC doing something similar, it depends how strong this year's renewals are. Three Valleys wasn't up to winning a classic though and I'll be very surprised if WC is, unless he improves significantly.
Just to reiterate my points. No revisionary aftertiming here |
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to be fair, Figgis, wasn't Three Valleys a very precocious 2yo, nothing bigger than a whippet to my recollection ( a la Arazi) ?
War Command looks a much bigger stronger type well capable of being a 3yo? |
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Ped, possibly I honestly can't remember now. I just didn't think Three Valleys' form as a 2yo was as great as his Coventry Stakes win made him look and his reputation that followed. I still hold that War Command's subsequent form hasn't lived up to the expectations following his Coventry win. I take the point about WC having the greater physical scope for next year, but for me he still has to make more than average improvement. While his physical scope gives him prospects of doing that I'd say it's not something that automatically goes hand in hand.
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He's certainly capable of winning a Gp1 but I have him at the lower end of that level, rather than the exceptional horse he looked at Ascot
Could hardly be classed as scoffing at his prospects of winning a Gp1. |
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an interesting stat for you, Coventry winners who went onto win a Group 1 as a 2yo, since 1988 included:
2013 - War Command 2012 - Dawn Approach 2011 - Power 2003 - Three Valleys 1999 - Fasliyev (retired at 2) 1995 - Royal Applause 1990 - Mac's Imp Royal Applause and Mac's Imp were sprinters, Fasliyev retired at 2, Three Valleys obviously didn't train on, but the two most recent won a Guineas whilst other Coventry winners who couldn't win a Group 1 at 2 but did win a Guineas included 2009 - Canford Cliffs 2007 Henrythenavigator 2001 - Landseer The only other Coventry winners since 1950 to win a Guineas were 1980 - Recitation 1958 - Martial So it's a relatively new phenomenon that a Coventry Stakes winner goes on to win a Guineas, with 5 of the 7 who managed it from the last 63 winners coming in the last 12 years alone What do you read into that, if anything? Maybe a change in the stature of the Coventry Stakes attracting better types, trainers getting their Guineas hopes ready earlier as 2yos, getting them to train on as 3yos, a change in the breed perhaps and how quickly they mature amongst many possible reasons But certainly something statistically significant that possibly gives War Command a 5 in 12 chance of landing a Guineas of some description next season? And possibly an even higher chance given he has gone on to win that elusive Group 1 as a 2yo that only 7 of the last 25 Coventry Stks winners managed to achieve |
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Ped, personally I'd put it down to a change in trainers' habits. In the late 80s and early 90s it was quite common for classic types to have no more than one or two back end runs as a 2yo. I have to say as a bettor I did like that period, as although in some years it was difficult to spot a future classic winner, there were enough years when it wasn't and there was some great value available as the runners were less exposed. While some trainers like Stoute still operate that way, others like O'Brien and Bolger don't. Although in O'Brien's case he has so much talent available that he's used both methods.
As for War Command, I rate him higher than Power, so I certainly wouldn't rule out him picking up an Irish Guineas like that one did. Unless the English Guineas winner turns up it's usually a weaker version. Tbh I've kind of missed the opportunity I was looking for with the horse. My thinking was after the Coventry WC would be regarded as another potential George Washington or Dawn Approach and I didn't think he was in that class. Remember he was as short as 5/1 for the Guineas. The only time he's been priced too short for a race since was directly after the Coventry in the Phoenix, where I didn't have enough confidence in the opposition to oppose him, as I said after the race, opportunity missed. On his next start I said that given the opposition again he was the likeliest winner and I didn't think he was underpriced. I was looking forward to opposing him in the Dewhurst with Be Ready but with that one's withdrawal I again said he was the likeliest winner and not underpriced. He's not set the world alight since the Coventry so his Guineas price is more realistic now around the 10/1 mark, although I still don't fancy him. |
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pedrobob
WC is the highest rated Coventry winner in the past 25 years at least so perhaps he might outperform previous winners.I must admit that the horse has not yet lived up to my expectation. As a betting prospect, i have only availed myself of the bigger prices for the 2000 gns and he is now leveraged in a green book. I think that Australia may turn out out to be AOB's best 3 yr old next year.Nevertheless, given the right conditions, I expect WC to prove himself a mid 120's horse. That does not make him a world beater yet butcertainly good enough to win another G1. |
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War Command has a couple of massive stats to overcome to win a Newmarket Guineas.
In the last 18 years, there have been 314 runners (average 17.4), and the only winner (5.6%) foaled after 6th April from 72 runners (22.9%) was Dawn Approach (born 23rd April). War Command a late foal born even later than Dawn Approach on 27th April, so arguably remarkable that he was able to win a Coventry Stks. On the other hand, to his great credit that has taken in five races at 2 and landed a Group 1 too.... and possibly more potential for improvement than his rivals given his size and scope? Maybe he has a lot in common with Dawn Approach? The other stat against him is his sire, War Front. Sons of USA bred sires who didn't race in Europe have produced 44 losers last 18 years in the 2000 Guineas, the last winner being Zafonic (Gone West) in 1993. But War Front a new sire who has already produced Declaration Of War, Lines Of Battle, Giovanni Baldini etc from few runners in Europe, so maybe he can buck the "trend"? |
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Ped, do you rate his Coventry higher than the Canford Cliffs win? I have it a good 10lbs behind that. Another thing is that I marginally have WC's best 2 performances over 6f, I'm sure he's nailed on to get the mile but for me he hasn't been any better for the step up in trip, whereas Dawn Approach showed improvement later in the year when he was stepped up to 7f. To be fair, though, George Washington's best 2yo run was also over 6f, although I rated him a good 6lbs higher than WC.
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Sorry, 8lbs behind the Canford Cliffs win.
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have similar to you Figgis, War Command 11-12lbs behind Canford Cliffs Coventry win.
As you know, I didn't rate the Phoenix (as a Grp 1 event) and had him 15lbs below par there, shade below that when winning the Futurity and only had to run 5lbs higher than the Phoenix when winning on Sat. I had Dawn Approach running a similar figure in the Dewhurst to his Coventry win (3lbs behind War Command), so agree War Command hasn't held his level like Dawn Approach did. On dosage index, War Command can stay up to 10f, so don't see 1m being any problem at all and his two wins over 7f suggest there is plenty more to come imo Just reading some old notes - O'Brien said he doesn't show him much at home and nothing changed after he won the Coventry. Interesting that O'Brien totally dodged the question whether War Command was no.1 in his pecking order when asked after the Dewhurst. Either he thinks they have something better (Australia?) or War Command continues to work like a slow horse at home and they can't get a handle on him.... but he keeps doing it on the racecourse? This partnership with the owner / breeder of War Front, Joseph Allen, is obviously a new one to Coolmore. So far they've shared War Command, Declaration Of War and Lines Of Battle from what I can tell and presumably War Front (who raced mainly on dirt) is going to be a stallion that they may want to co-promote in Europe? A Guineas win for him may be high on their agenda? |
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Tbh, ped, I think Toormore only has to hold his form to win the Guineas. I say only but it's no formality that will happen, he could go backwards or not come to hand in time. When I get a high rating I always try to keep it on the cautious side until I've had time to reflect on results. Even when Frankel won at Doncaster I rated him highly but still erred on the side of caution until further evidence. Unfortunately I backed him for the Derby at big prices instead of the Guineas, d'oh! Toormore is no Frankel but I have him on a figure that would win an average Guineas. I'm backing Be Ready as a backup horse in case Toormore doesn't make it. I think that one is good enough to be placed in a good Guineas and capable of winning a moderate one. Hopefully at least one of them will give me a run for my money.
I'm a little concerned about the danger of Kingman, as his rating his based on his debut run. He could possibly be capable of better than that but I don't believe in automatically upgrading a first time out performance. Taking that into account and his recent setback he offers no value for me at current prices so I won't be having any savers on him. Australia might do something in the RPT to make me have a rethink. I'm expecting him to win it but at the moment I see him as a Derby type. He'd have to do something special to make me think he has the speed for the Guineas. An end of season slow ground easy win over a mile could possibly be overrated but at least it would create value elsewhere in the market. |
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http://www.pedigreequery.com/kingman4
I don't know what Kingmans problem is,but on the link above is a photo of him winning at Newmarket,(click on little box with a horse on it) Note he is wearing a "Cross Noseband" and a Neckstrap for the jockey, I like the way he points his toe. |
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I don't rate Toormore quite as highly as you Figgis, but I found that day at the Curragh hard to figure, so you could well be right about him. He's certainly smart and well in the mix for the Guineas for me too.
I think O'Brien said Australia will not run again this year, which is an unusual decision for Coolmore to draw stumps so early with some Group 1's in UK and France still to play for? That suggests to me that they don't have the Guineas on the agenda for him as surely would have given him another run? They are obviously all about producing stallions and presumably more in their interests to have separate Guineas and Derby winners unless they think they can take a triple crown with Australia? But fact that they took War Command to the Dewhurst, with a sole pacemaker from 8 final entries, speaks volumes to me and they are lining him up as their Guineas no.1 |
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I didn't know that about Australia, ped, seems a strange decision as they obviously have a liking for the race and it looked like his for the taking. Was it a recent announcement? Maybe his last race took something out of him? I agree that the Guineas looks even less of a target if he's being put away. I take your point about WC being their no1 Guineas horse, but I always thought that would be the case as they don't appear to have too many decent candidates for the race, not that I've seen so far anyway.
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He said it yesterday that australia was finished for the season
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