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EPSOM OAKS (2013)

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By:
kincsem
When: 30 May 13 18:36
While waiting for the off these are my distance calculations for the Oaks

Filly___________My Calc___Sire____________RP Sire__Damsire_______RP Sire__RP Calc

BANOFEE____________9.4____Hurricane Run_____10.7___Anabaa___________8.3_____9.9
GERTRUDE VERSED____8.9____Manduro___________10.6___Polar Falcon_____8.5_____9.9
LIBER NAUTICUS____10.4____Azamour___________10.5___Daylami_________11.6____10.9
MADAME DEFARGE_____9.7____Motivator_________10.8___Zafonic__________8.7____10.1
MISS YOU TOO______10.7____Montjeu___________11.7___Peintre Celebre_10.5____11.3
MOTH______________10.0____Galileo___________11.1___Seattle Slew_____8.9____10.4
ROZ________________9.1____Teofilo___________10.7___Anabaa___________8.3_____9.9
SAY_______________10.6____Galileo___________11.1___Dynaformer______11.4____11.2
SECRET GESTURE____10.1____Galileo___________11.1___Danehill_________9.2____10.5
TALENT____________10.4____New Approach_______9.3___Peintre Celebre_10.5_____9.7
THE LARK___________8.9____Pivotal____________7.8___In The Wings____11.8_____9.1

My Calc is my calculation of the average winning distances of the sire, dam's sire, dam's dam's sire, weighted 1.0, 0.5, 0.25.  Individual sire AWDs (= my decision) from various sources.
RP Calc is a calculation of the [(RP Sire AWD X 1) (sire) + (RP Sire AWD (dam's sire) X 0.5)] / 1.5.
What I do is give more weight to the sire's AWD (100%), and 50% to the 2nd generation sire, (and 25% to the 3rd gen sire).

Newer sires like New Approach might not have enough runners (or older runner).  This might give dodgy AWD figures.
US sires like Seattle Slew might also give dodgy AWS stats as they have had few runners over here.
By:
Colldogg
When: 31 May 13 00:18
Banoffee for me. I remember watching the race and thinking he was in all sorts of trouble, but as soon as she got in to clear air she took off. I think she's the each way play in the race.
By:
Colldogg
When: 31 May 13 00:18
Banoffee for me. I remember watching the race and thinking he was in all sorts of trouble, but as soon as she got in to clear air she took off. I think she's the each way play in the race.
By:
judorick
When: 31 May 13 00:22
as I said, dutched Moth and Banoffee, their trials look the strongest
By:
JOCI Club
When: 31 May 13 06:35
Had a flutter on Moth.
By:
ThunderRoad
When: 31 May 13 10:13
Secret Gesture a worthy favourite, Moth the best form (although I don't think she'll stay) but I'm sticking with Liber Nauticus.
By:
judorick
When: 31 May 13 10:21
secret gesture is a false fav in my book, I have her 5th in my ratings and there is every prospect she won't even place
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 31 May 13 11:49
moth to fly home for me.
By:
Sandown
When: 31 May 13 11:55
Taken another look at this race through fresh eyes and I think that I have been guilty of overlooking the obvious which is that Secret Gesture really may be as good as she looked at Lingfield. The rain through the day makes time ratings very difficult to be confident about but what I can be confident about is how the horse finished the race. Despite the ground going soft, she covered the last 3f in under 36.0 which is pretty fast even on good ground, but she did it seemingly without coming off the bridle. She had bags in reserve. As for the ground, well the ground will not be as slow toady and looking at her action, she should be even better on better ground. No doubts about the trip given her pedigree and if she can handle Lingfield she can handle Epsom.What's more, the horse who finshed 11 lgtns behind her managed to come 3rd in the G2 Italian Oaks. At £150,000 to the winner and £36,000 to the 3rd (Secret Gesture picked up £22,000 at lingfield for winning)that's form due some respect.

Of the others, well neither Moth not Lieber Nauticus appeal on the figures at all and I would prefer Talent and Banoffee as dangers.
By:
sj
When: 31 May 13 12:34
judorick 31 May 13 10:21 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 15,230 | Blogger: judorick's blog
secret gesture is a false fav in my book, I have her 5th in my ratings and there is every prospect she won't even place

who are the 4 you have above her?
By:
Figgis
When: 31 May 13 13:00
I still think it's between Moth and Liber Nauticus. Can't be massively confident as I don't have a great deal between them but I've backed Moth and included her in a double with BOM.
By:
judorick
When: 31 May 13 13:06
moth 107
liber 102
banoffee 101 p
getrude versed 98
secret gesture 96 including upgrade for easy win, 8th without the upgrade

9/4 looks very short
By:
Millerracing67
When: 31 May 13 13:18
Be very surprised if the winner does not come from the 1st 3 in the betting.
Only having a small interest in the race for ££.
Moth to win, & place bet on Liber.
Gd luck all. Cool
By:
mightymoyes
When: 31 May 13 16:09
would never have picked that.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 May 13 16:11
Me neither, even though she was possibly unexposed I would never have backed her. No excuses for Moth and SG ran better than I expected, well done winners.
By:
Sandown
When: 31 May 13 16:16
Backed Secret Gesture but I didn't even have a saver on Talent!

There is no filly in this field which to my eyes looks like a G1 filly in the making and that includes Secret Gesture. The ground went quickly at Lingfield as a result of torrential rain ( soaked I was) and the ratings on the day are wholly unreliable. Grant you, she looked the part visually, but for me the whole race has to be left alone. I won't be surprised by a surprise (Talent?).
By:
Sandown
When: 31 May 13 16:18
Initial time rating is that that was a moderate race
By:
Steamship
When: 31 May 13 16:30
Backed 3 this year inc Secret Gesture and The Lark, last year I backed Sirocco Star and The Fugue also 2nd and 3rd.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 May 13 16:31
Yes, Sandown, wondered if you'd had a few quid on. Like you say, can only be a preliminary rating but looks poor. I'd say a bit better than the previous 2 runnings (could hardly be worse really), but gotta go back to Eswarah to find another as poor. It's getting to be a bit of a disappointing race quality wise, not that backers at that price will be too bothered about that Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 31 May 13 16:56
Bit more confident after that last race, I make it that even Secret Gesture in finishing 2nd ran slower than last time. Odd as it certainly didn't look like an overall slowly run affair and looking at where the winner came from I doubt it was. Strange race.
By:
turnip turns
When: 31 May 13 17:35
Simon Rowlands ‏@Rowleyfile 1h
Remarkably slow closing sectional in The Oaks.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 May 13 17:46
Thanks TT, not had a proper review of the race but yeah I would've thought that was the case. Looks like a lot of runners, including the second, didn't quite run to form.
By:
turnip turns
When: 31 May 13 17:55
yeah will be interesting to see how it pans out in future races,think a few didn't run to form or handle the track tbh.
By:
Try My Best
When: 31 May 13 18:45
Don't think there were any excuses for anything in the race imo.Winner won fair and square. Just didn't look a great renewal.
By:
Sankara
When: 31 May 13 19:01
Looks to me like they went too strong a pace, thereby favouring those who came from rear.
By:
San Quentin
When: 01 Jun 13 09:32
did look on paper a poor oaks and proved to be .I know what i will be doing with  those who ran in this race for the rest of the season
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 13 10:06
Winner looked quite good I thought. She pounded them in the end.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jun 13 10:44
Not sure I'd want to back any of them next time, although I do think some behind will do better than that later on, I'll be opposing the winner if she's priced up like a good winner.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 01 Jun 13 11:26
They did seem to go a bit to hard from the off, especially on g/s ground, which did rather set things up for the held-up horses. The winner did travel well & ran out a ready winner.
There did not look to be any hard luck stories having viewed the race a few times, apart from "Frank" Spencer finding his normal trouble in-running on the 3rd (The Lark).
Don't think Moth saw the trip out & 10f will be her trip & the Stoute filly needs more time & a more galloping track, prob not see the very best of her till next year.
By:
sisyphus
When: 01 Jun 13 11:50
The winner found cover all the way through the race, in contrast the winners stable mate had to use up reserves of stamina at several stages and I think She showed real guts in holding on for second in the end. Secret Gesture comes out of the race the best horse in my opinion, sprinted to get a position at the start, started her top speed early to hold her position, excelerated again to go for the gap then cruised to a length and half lead looking like the winner until the stablemate appeared. Epsom like no other course causes this type of thing regularly.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 13 17:33
Do you think the draw cost her then Sisyphus?
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