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EPSOM OAKS (2013)
EPSOM OAKS (2013)
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Replies: 150
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Yes helped myself to some of that straight after the race,Lads are not often that generous.
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Keep the faith in ROZ boys. Have a sneaky feeling will get 3rd on the line.
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Liber Nauticus on the drift - any news on this?
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Few of these at the head of the market could knacker themselves out in the Irish 1000 gns and not run Friday week. Must be value somewhere. One consolation is ROZ started last year with a big fat 0 and optimistically might be a 00000 this year but sense something is going on around here. OI OI. If you watch it on x 30 might happen again. Need some ammo.
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Looks like Liber is going backwards.
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its not a liquid market--probably someone has just taken a strong position against it. also, with low liquidy, its very easy to manipulate market
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Apparently O'Brien announced last week that Moth misses the Curragh, I completely missed that news.
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SECRET GESTURE
B f Galileo - Shastye. Potentially top class middle distance filly who won second and final start last season in mile maiden at Newbury. Impressive seven-length winner of 11 furlong listed Oaks Trial at Lingfield May 11 beating Miss You Too. Debut mark of 111. "Lingfield was the performance we'd hoped to see because we had been talking her down rather than up for some time. Always thought she was pretty smart and she showed it on a decent stage. If she gets to Epsom healthy and in one piece I think she'll handle the track, ground and the whole jamboree. She doesn't seem to have a hole in her although there isn't much of her so she needs nourishment not punishment. Doesn't get much work." TALENT Ch f New Approach - Prowess. Won final of two starts last season over seven at Kempton in September. Rated 82 and stayed on well to beat Lady Nouf half a length in ten furlong listed at Newmarket May 5. Now 96. "Really improved for Newmarket and came out of the race very well. I'm hopeful that she'll run very well, I think she'll handle track and ground, whatever it might be. A tough filly, puts it all in." |
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“We've decided Moth will head for Epsom and that we will give the Irish Guineas a miss with her. We're also looking at running Say in the Oaks."
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Moth has been left in the irish guineas according to sporting life today:
Aidan O'Brien's Moth, who caught the eye when running on into third at Newmarket and has been strongly fancied for the Oaks at Epsom, is still in the shake-up for the Guineas. |
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I am going to be dutching Moth and Banoffee as the form of both their trials has worked out nicely
sure one will be involved in the finish |
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Let it be Moth!
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Qatar Racing Ltd have bought into Oaks favourite Secret Gesture.
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So Jamie Spencer will presumably take the ride. Hmm. Ah well, he won on Sariska, I suppose.
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Nope - Crowley keeps the ride
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There is no filly in this field which to my eyes looks like a G1 filly in the making and that includes Secret Gesture. The ground went quickly at Lingfield as a result of torrential rain ( soaked I was) and the ratings on the day are wholly unreliable. Grant you, she looked the part visually, but for me the whole race has to be left alone. I won't be surprised by a surprise (Talent?).
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Secret Gesture won the Oaks trial faster than Nevis won the Derby trial although half an hour of torrential rain might account for that. The trouble is we've not seen Nevis out since. Come to think of it, only Whippy Cream has run again from either trial.
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Sandown, don't you think the Oaks is the easiest Classic to win on figures? The best in the last 10 years were Alexandrova and Ouija Board, but Moth has already run close to the standard of the other 8.
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Actually she's run better than a few of them too.
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had a small ew bet on Madame Defarge at 33s who to my eye would probably have won the Pretty Polly but for her unwillingness to go down the far side rail.Will probably leave it at that as a betting heat.
She was very green which is a worry but I believe she galloped on the track at Breakfast with the Stars. Other than that, agree with Sandown, very little form to go on and nothing particularly striking apart from Secret Gesture visually - would be great for racing if a superstar filly did emerge who could take on the colts in the big races later in the season. Otherwise, it's back to cheering on Snow Fairy. |
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Agree there's nothing in here to make anyone scared and I'm expecting The Lark to post a seriously improved display on Friday.
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Figgis
I have nothing that suggests there is an exceptional filly in the field. As for Moth, well not really. Nothing on overall time and certainly nothing on sectionals.I don't know how to rate the Lingfield form because of the rapidly changing conditions. If you had been there you would know what I mean.The Stoute filly interested me as a 2yr old but her York run didn't inspire. So, as they say on Dragons Den, "I'm out." |
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Sandown, I don't believe it takes an exceptional filly to win an average Oaks, a quick look through past winners shows this, with a few notable exceptions. Most of the better fillies have no chance of staying the trip, find a reasonably decent one that does and you have a likely winner. This year's 1000 has been unjustly rated as worse than average, certainly from a time angle it was well up to standard, with only Ghanaati and Finsceal Beo achieving higher in the last 10 years. Moth's form is already up to standard of an ordinary Oaks winner. I expected a bit more from Stoute's filly after rating her debut win quite highly, she didn't improve much on that, though, at York, it was still an ok effort, I have her only 3lbs lower than Moth, but the performance didn't strike me as one which she'd be immediately improving on. I think Secret Gesture was flattered and I have her 7lbs below Moth. She did appear to do it easily and could possibly be better than the bare form but I couldn't back her on that.
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I should have said I have Liber Nauticus only 2lbs lower than Moth, so it would be foolish to be over confident about Moth with such a small advantage, LN could bridge the gap, I was more taken with O'Brien's filly though, she's not exactly a cert but I think she's the most likely winner.
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Figgis
I understand your reasoning and wouldn't argue too much with it. I just don't think that there is much value in the prices of the main contenders to make it worthwhile to get involved. Good luck, anyway. |
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Sandown
Yes, I agree, it wouldn't exactly be the best value bet I've ever made and I've not actually had a bet yet. I'm taking Secret Gesture out of the calculations, though, so I have it as a 2 horse race. Not saying SG can't win but I'm happy to let her win without me backing her. I was hoping for a Ouija Board type rating from one of the trials, but without that type of quality filly in the field then any winner would be no huge surprise, especially if the jockeys allow a repeat of the last 2 farcical runnings. |
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Miss You Too
The favourite is Secret Gesture, who won its last race ahead of Miss You Too in 2nd. If you can ignore the winning margin, and the apparent ease, and look at how my Miss You Too battled hard for her head at the back of the field (Youtube), then went through the field and led, and held on for second, you will see she might have a chance in the Oaks if she settles. She might not need to settle. She might do a Jet Ski Lady and lead all the way. Her sire is Montjeu, sire of four of the last eight Derby winners. Her damsire, Peintre Celebre (although imo not a big stamina influence), won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Also on the dam side of her pedigree: Green Dancer: sire of Suave Dancer (French Derby and Arc); damsire of Epsom Derby winner Quest For Fame. Back another step on the dam side is the US sire Nashua, winner of the Preakness, Belmont, and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. There is a lot of quality in her pedigree. Perhaps she hasn't inherited the good stuff. I have a small bet on Miss You Too at 160+ |
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I took the 160, 120, 100.
Then I had €0.15 at 3.5 which made Miss You Too the Oaks favourite on Betfair, lower than Secret Gesture at 3.75.  |
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Gertrude Versed for me in a race that is more open than the betting suggests. Top connections who are getting closer to winning an Oaks, stays well, went too soon at Chester and is rapidly on the upgrade. Looks overpriced at 33s or so.
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Racing Post @RacingPost 24s
Snow Queen the only withdrawal as 11 declared for Oaks on Friday topped by Secret Gesture. Joseph O'Brien rides Moth. |
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NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
15 11 Banoffee23 3 9-0 Hughie Morrison60 Kieren Fallon 93 101 107 210 53-212 Gertrude Versed23 3 9-0 John Gosden70 William Buick 89 98 105 37 1-1 Liber Nauticus16 3 9-0 Sir Michael Stoute73 Ryan Moore 99 102 119 411 1-3 Madame Defarge26 3 9-0 Michael Bell64 Tom Queally 90 92 110 58 4423-2 Miss You Too20 h 3 9-0 David Simcock58 Ian Mongan 93 104 107 62 53-13 Moth26 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Joseph O'Brien 107 107 124 79 0112-0 Roz26 3 9-0 Harry Dunlop67 Johnny Murtagh 104 92 116 84 6-21 Say21 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Seamie Heffernan 92 70 100 91 21-1 Secret Gesture20 3 9-0 Ralph Beckett47 Jim Crowley 111 81 123 103 31-1 Talent26 3 9-0 Ralph Beckett47 Richard Hughes 96 90 116 116 41-3 The Lark14 3 9-0 Michael Bell64 Jamie Spencer 93 96 109 |
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This is probably more open than it looks. Trials on generally soft ground can be misleading, and probably two of the three favourites are shorter than they should be, owing to their trainers' reputations.
Roz is generally 33/1 but was 100/1 yesterday. Has Tom Segal been sighted lurking behind bushes at the Dunlop gallops? The new plan is to oppose the first three in the betting and scatter some money amongst those rags I think will stay. |
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Stall 1
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there seems to be an awful lot of guys looking for an angle on this race, but, from what i've seen it's staring them right in the face. cheers.
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Call me biased but I really don't see what's wrong with Secret Gesture. The only other horse i'd back is Banoffee who was far more impressive than the distance she won last time out at Chester.
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I'm having another look at Liber Nauticus -- the consensus is she is a big old boat who will not handle Epsom but she won on her debut at Goodwood, which is hardly God's billiard table.
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Oaks & Derby preview
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2013/2013_epsom_derby-oaks_preview.htm |
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1 secret gesture
2 moth 3 talent cheers. |
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This rain has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons.
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