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IrisDeBalme
13 Jan 13 22:01
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,974 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
Owned by JP McManus, who allegedly owns a share in the Supreme Novices Hurdle - Jezki.  What puts me off Jezki is that he is unlikely to have a run after xmas and head to the festival which I consider a negative really... a profile of a typical win oftens suggests a race fit horse.

Anyway, as for the Betfair Hurdle, I really do like MTOY because connections have stated this race as his next target and currently rated at the moment at 140... will be interesting to see what he is alloted this week.  I dont feel he will have the same weight as Zarkandar as he has not achieved as much...and Get Me Out of Here will probably keep his weight down anyway, we will just have to see ...

In last years race Henderson had two horses in this Get Me Out of Here and Darlan, both of whom were unlucky not to win the race... reckon they will make amends this year with MTOY...

It will probably be 5/1 on the day, but for those who wont bet because of the snow/abandonments etc over the next few weeks I would start putting your cash on this one over the next few weeks, with McCoy on board the Henderson bandwagon will be rolling on...

Then on to Chelt, I think it will be 2nd fav for the Supreme behind Jezki... 14/1 with the Supreme Novices at laddies...

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Replies: 162
By:
BJG
When: 13 Jan 13 23:11
Where av they said its a definite target? U av a link plz Confused
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 14 Jan 13 06:33
after he won his last race, Henderson suggested this race was next and the course would suit etc... cant quote it exactly as read it on RP... but did imply this was the target... but he is never really direct and do change their plans but I will be suprised if they pull it out... although has about 12 entries for the race at this stage! But MTOY has similar profile to Darlan, with number of runs etc.

Pwise tips for the Betfair this Thursday, Henderson comments for the fav will be there so probably clearer on the Thursday in the RP.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 14 Jan 13 07:28
get me out of here is trained by jonjo
By:
Brooksielad
When: 14 Jan 13 07:33
If he won the Betfair well and jezki not out again to enhance his claims further you could see joint favourites for the supreme. my only worry as you mentioned is the ground turning bad as  they wouldn't run him.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Jan 13 08:22
Cannot take a further view on his chance in betfair until weight is known for sure.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jan 13 13:41
Agree. Handicapped could be kind and give him a 4 or 5lb rise or he could be nasty and raise him 7 or 8
By:
tyronesam
When: 14 Jan 13 19:19
when is this known
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Jan 13 20:26
Blimey this horse is being over-hyped, shocking price for a race dont know what weight it will be running off?
By:
Brooksielad
When: 14 Jan 13 20:53
i dont think it matters what weight it gets, it will tank its way to the front two out and win impressively :)
By:
BJG
When: 14 Jan 13 21:33
tyronesam     14 Jan 13 20:19 
when is this known



Tuesday but dont think we find out till wednesday mornin
By:
bazzar
When: 14 Jan 13 23:05
Does anyone know how to find the WEEKENDER site as they have the
info on Tuesday ready for publication on Wednesday, printed by
Racing Post?
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Jan 13 23:19
Dont think they have one tbh.
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Jan 13 23:28
Could be one you have to pay for in which case wouldnt bother if anything like Racing Post.
By:
Senor El Betrutti
When: 15 Jan 13 09:19
according to reports on twitter he's up 9lbs, according to guy from sporting life.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 15 Jan 13 10:03
surprised he's gone up 9 was expecting 6 at most. will sill win it though.
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Jan 13 12:38
Love your enthusiasm brooksie, but its a hell of an ask.

Does the stable think he is a stone better than River Maigue? Personally I'd be surprised and whilst he hopefully is better than 149 as I too really like him for Supreme, there will surely be others that have concealed their true ability better. It is the richest handicap hurdle after all.

Hendo only said the Betfair was an option post race as he now qualified for a true handicap mark - with this mark they may choose to swerve it. After all he still shows his inexperience and it might not be the best prep for Cheltenham.

Whatever, current 9/2 best price is ridiculous if 149 is confirmed.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 15 Jan 13 14:29
its the sort of race that prepares you for a battle in the supreme, they'll only get this one chance to run off a mark in the 140s in a valuable handicap as iI can only see his mark increasing in the supreme. If the ground is reasonable they'll run him imo.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 15 Jan 13 15:56
9 lb rise very harsh, bit ludicrous really as the opposition wasnt much and probably more on reputation of the stable (does the handicapper work for the bookies?)... will be interesting to see what bookies view will be after tomorrow in terms of prices... and whether it puts off the trainer... fingers crossed

If they consider this horse a serious Supreme contender he should win this... i think he will
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Jan 13 18:50
Iris what you need to consider is that the two of the last 3 winners of the Supreme have been rated 151 after that race.

Probably the winner of the deepest race in recent times was actually Al Ferof and he was rated 155 after the race. To match that MTOY needs to be 6lb ahead of the handicapper, he might be. I actually think that for the richest handicap hurdle run in this country there will be something further than 6lbs ahead of its actual mark and for this race that's the issue
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 15 Jan 13 22:23
Ok roobuck, name two possibles that your above comment in your honest opinion could apply toConfused
By:
duffy
When: 15 Jan 13 23:42
I don't think they're particularly bothered about the supreme with him (or jp isn't I should say), afterall, why's he bought jezki for, I reckon the tote gold trophy is MTOY's main target, GMOOH couldn't pull off both and I reckon that JP doesn't want to rely mainly on one horse for 2 very hard races.
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Jan 13 05:08
@ sts - Pearl Swan, River Maigue, Court Minstrel and to be honest I haven't looked through the race in any great detail. There'll be more.

@ Duffy - GMOOH won this off 135 and came second in Supreme, that's exactly the point I am making
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Jan 13 05:10
Cotton Mill would be another sts
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Jan 13 09:48
Well i have the 12s on MTOY so have room come the day to back another 2 or 3, or maybe 4 Crazy against it. Can't see it not being fav on the day at around the 5s mark tbh just depends on how Henderson sees his new revised mark as, good or bad. Personally i think its about right at this stage but that's me, looking through previous winners of the totesport, they don't do very well at the very top of the handicap and bottom weights don't win either. Most winners have been waited in the middle, around the 11st mark.

I predicted MTOY would go up 10, so was pretty close as he went up 9. This puts him on 149, as everyone knows and looking at the list of entries, if Cel' Halo runs, this puts his racing weight at around the 11-1 - 11-5 area, which as i also said above, is perfect for a race of this nature.

I think we are just in the gods now, in that hoping the weather is kind to us and the race is run on perfect ground! Really fancy him for it, and the 9ib rise certainly has not put me off!
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Jan 13 10:25
So you have a good price and still think he'll win - why the hell would you consider backing up to 4 more?
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Jan 13 11:07
Some people just LOVE to waste money, then claim they found the winner, a LOT of people on this forum think in that way!!!!
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Jan 13 11:11
As regards DUKE OF NAVAN, why did the handicapper not re-assess his rating especially in the light of his handicap qualifying race?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Jan 13 11:11
And a lot of people just like to trade and increase their chances too! Nowt wrong with that, if you wanna just back one in a ultra competitive handicap hurdle, go ahead, love to be your bookie!
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Jan 13 13:05
You probably are, so I feel sorry for you.
By:
flyingbolt
When: 16 Jan 13 13:07
Duke of Navan only ran 3 days ago. He will be reassessed but the new mark won't kick in until a week on Friday.......I think that's right anyway.
By:
flyingbolt
When: 16 Jan 13 14:00
Duke of Navan raised 11lb to 138.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 16 Jan 13 14:23
I can see MTOY hacking up in this off a strong pace and then just failing in the Supreme
By:
Brooksielad
When: 16 Jan 13 15:12
If he hacks up in this then he hacks up in the supreme aswell. :)
By:
flyingbolt
When: 16 Jan 13 15:24
Why ?

Newbury is a totally different track to Cheltenham.
By:
liam the lips
When: 16 Jan 13 16:56
149 makes life a bit different from 140. Revenge 4 Darlan me finx - good on yer Phil Grin
By:
Brooksielad
When: 16 Jan 13 17:39
If he wins hard held at Newbury off 149 he'll but up at least another 9 that puts him at 158, He only has to run to that mark again to potentially win the race at Cheltenham. Obviously there both different tracks but the supreme being run on the old course for me would play to mtoy advantages more than Newbury, he's such a speedy horse you can see him just swinging in on the turn breezing past his rivals.

That's the way I've been playing it in my head anyway loool, mtoy has a very big stat to over come though. I've never backed the bloody winner in the race. Scared
By:
alleged22
When: 16 Jan 13 17:59
getting beat in this wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing, but the experience of being in the race, big field fast pace is the ideal prep imo for the supreme
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 16 Jan 13 22:45
Brooksielad 14 Jan 13 08:28 Joined: 05 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 998 | Blogger: Brooksielad's blog
get me out of here is trained by jonjo

Brooksielad looks to be one of the sharp minds on betfair.
By:
roobuck
When: 17 Jan 13 05:24
Mentioned to correct an earlier post actually
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