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Owned by JP McManus, who allegedly owns a share in the Supreme Novices Hurdle - Jezki. What puts me off Jezki is that he is unlikely to have a run after xmas and head to the festival which I consider a negative really... a profile of a typical win oftens suggests a race fit horse.
Anyway, as for the Betfair Hurdle, I really do like MTOY because connections have stated this race as his next target and currently rated at the moment at 140... will be interesting to see what he is alloted this week. I dont feel he will have the same weight as Zarkandar as he has not achieved as much...and Get Me Out of Here will probably keep his weight down anyway, we will just have to see ...
In last years race Henderson had two horses in this Get Me Out of Here and Darlan, both of whom were unlucky not to win the race... reckon they will make amends this year with MTOY...
It will probably be 5/1 on the day, but for those who wont bet because of the snow/abandonments etc over the next few weeks I would start putting your cash on this one over the next few weeks, with McCoy on board the Henderson bandwagon will be rolling on...
Then on to Chelt, I think it will be 2nd fav for the Supreme behind Jezki... 14/1 with the Supreme Novices at laddies...
Anyway, as for the Betfair Hurdle, I really do like MTOY because connections have stated this race as his next target and currently rated at the moment at 140... will be interesting to see what he is alloted this week. I dont feel he will have the same weight as Zarkandar as he has not achieved as much...and Get Me Out of Here will probably keep his weight down anyway, we will just have to see ...
In last years race Henderson had two horses in this Get Me Out of Here and Darlan, both of whom were unlucky not to win the race... reckon they will make amends this year with MTOY...
It will probably be 5/1 on the day, but for those who wont bet because of the snow/abandonments etc over the next few weeks I would start putting your cash on this one over the next few weeks, with McCoy on board the Henderson bandwagon will be rolling on...
Then on to Chelt, I think it will be 2nd fav for the Supreme behind Jezki... 14/1 with the Supreme Novices at laddies...
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Anyone know which horses were withdrawn yesterday, cannot find anything
in WEEKENDER or RACING POST?
in WEEKENDER or RACING POST?
Been trading MTOY since i got 14 when market opened, someones just had it right off at 5.5 - 5.7 
!
!
In the racing post today Henderson quoted on saying he will 5 runners in the betfair hurdle including My Tent Or yours... ridden by McCoy...
Looks like they had a chnage of heart!
Looks like they had a chnage of heart!
Cash and Go for me with Barry riding,hopefully make up for his 2 defeats this season?
Strong Betfair field in prospect
Ante-post favourite My Tent Or Yours features among 33 confirmations for Saturday's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Nicky Henderson's charge was a seven-length winner on his most recent outing and beat subsequent Grade One scorer Taquin De Seuil on his hurdling bow.
He is one of six possible challengers from Seven Barrows, with Petit Robin topping the weights for the valuable handicap. Cash And Go, Punjabi, Lyvius and First In The Queue also feature for Henderson, while Paul Nicholls has three entries.
His possibles include second-favourite Pearl Swan, Dark Love and Caid Du Berlais.
Grumeti and Manyriverstocross have been left in for Alan King, with David Pipe triple-handed with Ronaldo Des Mottes, the unbeaten Swing Bowler and prolific winner Home Run.
Cause Of Causes leads the Irish challenge after winning The Ladbroke at Ascot before Christmas and he is on course to tackle another big handicap engagement.
Trainer Gordon Elliott said: "He's fine and the plan is for him to go to Newbury. We've also confirmed him for the Deloitte in Leopardstown, but that is just in case something happens with the weather or something like that. We're looking forward to running him."
Elliott also has Discoteca in the field, with both Willie Mullins and Tony Martin double-handed as well, with Midnight Game and Quiscover Fontaine, and Edeymi and Thomas Edison respectively.
The Eddie Harty-trained Princeton Plains rounds out a strong Irish contingent.
Other notable contenders include Court Minstrel, Cotton Mill and Claret Cloak but Mullins' Abbey Lane does not feature.
Ante-post favourite My Tent Or Yours features among 33 confirmations for Saturday's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Nicky Henderson's charge was a seven-length winner on his most recent outing and beat subsequent Grade One scorer Taquin De Seuil on his hurdling bow.
He is one of six possible challengers from Seven Barrows, with Petit Robin topping the weights for the valuable handicap. Cash And Go, Punjabi, Lyvius and First In The Queue also feature for Henderson, while Paul Nicholls has three entries.
His possibles include second-favourite Pearl Swan, Dark Love and Caid Du Berlais.
Grumeti and Manyriverstocross have been left in for Alan King, with David Pipe triple-handed with Ronaldo Des Mottes, the unbeaten Swing Bowler and prolific winner Home Run.
Cause Of Causes leads the Irish challenge after winning The Ladbroke at Ascot before Christmas and he is on course to tackle another big handicap engagement.
Trainer Gordon Elliott said: "He's fine and the plan is for him to go to Newbury. We've also confirmed him for the Deloitte in Leopardstown, but that is just in case something happens with the weather or something like that. We're looking forward to running him."
Elliott also has Discoteca in the field, with both Willie Mullins and Tony Martin double-handed as well, with Midnight Game and Quiscover Fontaine, and Edeymi and Thomas Edison respectively.
The Eddie Harty-trained Princeton Plains rounds out a strong Irish contingent.
Other notable contenders include Court Minstrel, Cotton Mill and Claret Cloak but Mullins' Abbey Lane does not feature.
Two against the field.
My tent or yours 12/1
Claret Cloak 20/1
My tent or yours 12/1
Claret Cloak 20/1
1 9-5112 Petit Robin49 10 11-10 Nicky Henderson47 159 143 164
2 F1131- Grumeti259F 5 11-4 Alan King13 153 145 161
3 261311 Cause Of Causes27 5 11-3 Gordon Elliott83 152 143 162
4 64-112 Midnight Game27 6 11-1 W P Mullins59 150 141 160
5 22-121 My Tent Or Yours29 6 11-0 Nicky Henderson47 149 129 163
6 21/171 Dark Lover57 8 10-13 Paul Nicholls40 148 154 166
7 11dF-2 Pearl Swan15 5 10-11 Paul Nicholls40 146 — 160
8 115-2U Cash And Go49 6 10-10 Nicky Henderson47 145 153 162
9 2190/6 Punjabi45 10 10-10 Nicky Henderson47 145 55 150
10 111U3- Cotton Mill302 6 10-10 John Ferguson 145 121 171
11 73F6/4 Ronaldo Des Mottes35 8 10-9 David Pipe48 144 110 162
12 619-35 Baby Mix91 5 10-6 Tom George33 141 148 161
13 2F1445 Double Ross7 7 10-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies39 141 161 165
14 11144 Discoteca44 5 10-4 Gordon Elliott83 139 128 165
15 200-6U Edeymi22F 5 10-4 A J Martin50 139 162 163
16 51-626 Princeton Plains49 7 10-3 Edward P Harty 138 147 170
17 2511-3 Claret Cloak98 6 10-1 Emma Lavelle60 136 159 163
18 40/08- The Betchworth Kid106F 8 10-0 Michael Bell Jimmy McCarthy 135 — —
19 17373/ Manyriverstocross818 8 10-0 Alan King13 135 — —
20 2P720B Thomas Edison14 6 10-0 A J Martin50 135 109 162
21 1111-1 Swing Bowler39 6 9-13 David Pipe48 134 155 166
22 05-256 Village Vic57 6 9-13 Philip Hobbs33 134 143 164
23 217-10 Lyvius49 5 9-12 Nicky Henderson47 133 127 165
24 10F-68 Quiscover Fontaine6 9 9-12 W P Mullins59 133 145 159
25 0-4424 Ingleby Spirit6 6 9-11 Richard Fahey100 132 154 163
26 190203 First In The Queue15 6 9-11 Nicky Henderson47 132 131 162
27 14-134 Court Minstrel35 6 9-10 Evan Williams50 131 139 165
28 146-28 Into Wain49 6 9-9 Steve Gollings 130 126 155
29 831222 Caid Du Berlais35 4 9-6 Paul Nicholls40 Harry Derham5 137 144 159
30 10B/01 Whitby Jack28 6 9-5 Gary Moore83 126 154 158
31 311111 Home Run39 5 9-3 David Pipe48 124 134 150
32 122235 Cabimas15 6 9-1 Gary Moore83 122 136 149
33 8-3151 Cousin Khee8F 6 8-11 Hughie Morrison 118 140 149
2 F1131- Grumeti259F 5 11-4 Alan King13 153 145 161
3 261311 Cause Of Causes27 5 11-3 Gordon Elliott83 152 143 162
4 64-112 Midnight Game27 6 11-1 W P Mullins59 150 141 160
5 22-121 My Tent Or Yours29 6 11-0 Nicky Henderson47 149 129 163
6 21/171 Dark Lover57 8 10-13 Paul Nicholls40 148 154 166
7 11dF-2 Pearl Swan15 5 10-11 Paul Nicholls40 146 — 160
8 115-2U Cash And Go49 6 10-10 Nicky Henderson47 145 153 162
9 2190/6 Punjabi45 10 10-10 Nicky Henderson47 145 55 150
10 111U3- Cotton Mill302 6 10-10 John Ferguson 145 121 171
11 73F6/4 Ronaldo Des Mottes35 8 10-9 David Pipe48 144 110 162
12 619-35 Baby Mix91 5 10-6 Tom George33 141 148 161
13 2F1445 Double Ross7 7 10-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies39 141 161 165
14 11144 Discoteca44 5 10-4 Gordon Elliott83 139 128 165
15 200-6U Edeymi22F 5 10-4 A J Martin50 139 162 163
16 51-626 Princeton Plains49 7 10-3 Edward P Harty 138 147 170
17 2511-3 Claret Cloak98 6 10-1 Emma Lavelle60 136 159 163
18 40/08- The Betchworth Kid106F 8 10-0 Michael Bell Jimmy McCarthy 135 — —
19 17373/ Manyriverstocross818 8 10-0 Alan King13 135 — —
20 2P720B Thomas Edison14 6 10-0 A J Martin50 135 109 162
21 1111-1 Swing Bowler39 6 9-13 David Pipe48 134 155 166
22 05-256 Village Vic57 6 9-13 Philip Hobbs33 134 143 164
23 217-10 Lyvius49 5 9-12 Nicky Henderson47 133 127 165
24 10F-68 Quiscover Fontaine6 9 9-12 W P Mullins59 133 145 159
25 0-4424 Ingleby Spirit6 6 9-11 Richard Fahey100 132 154 163
26 190203 First In The Queue15 6 9-11 Nicky Henderson47 132 131 162
27 14-134 Court Minstrel35 6 9-10 Evan Williams50 131 139 165
28 146-28 Into Wain49 6 9-9 Steve Gollings 130 126 155
29 831222 Caid Du Berlais35 4 9-6 Paul Nicholls40 Harry Derham5 137 144 159
30 10B/01 Whitby Jack28 6 9-5 Gary Moore83 126 154 158
31 311111 Home Run39 5 9-3 David Pipe48 124 134 150
32 122235 Cabimas15 6 9-1 Gary Moore83 122 136 149
33 8-3151 Cousin Khee8F 6 8-11 Hughie Morrison 118 140 149
So weights to go up by 2 and if Petit Robin was not declared it would change the complexion of the race enormously.
Ok fair enough. In that case my two at current prices would be Cash and Go and Pearl Swan
any1 know if they intend to run court minstrel in this??
If they get no rain this week I'm sure they'll be tempted if he gets in. I'd like to see in the handicap proper, but would dare to suggest he is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race.
not been through the race in detail yet but initial reaction is that I like both Alan King's runners even though they've been off a long time (a very long time in the case of Manyriverstocross!) - most decent trainers can get them cherry ripe to return at home nowadays and the absences mean that they might be less exposed than would otherwise be the case.
John Ferguson is delighted with Cotton Mill as he prepares him for a crack at the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.
The six-year-old Tiger Hill gelding hasn't been seen this season after unseating Denis O'Regan when ducking left in the Neptune behind Simonsig at last year's Cheltenham Festival and finishing third over three miles in a Grade One at Aintree.
That last appearance was back in April but Ferguson isn't concerned by his absence from the track as he explained at Doncaster on Monday.
Profiles J P Ferguson Cotton Mill
"He's very well I'm very happy with him," Ferguson told sportinglife.com. "He's been A1 throughout the season but I haven't run him because the ground has been so heavy. I wasn't convinced he'd go on heavy ground and I didn't feel he needed heavy ground races early in the year.
"He's starting off a fresh horse, whatever he does at Newbury he'll improve for it and Newbury will tell us a lot. If the ground is decent we'll have a good idea if his next start is over two miles or two-miles-five."
The Champion Hurdle could be on the cards for Cotton Mill if he runs well this weekend, though Ferguson says all plans are on hold until he's proven himself over two miles.
Cotton Mill's last appearance came over three miles at Aintree, but it's a trip he's unlikely to run over again as Ferguson looks for options over two and possibly two-and-a-half miles.
He continued: "Cheltenham is in our thoughts, but to take the Betfair Hurdle along the way would be nice.
"The thinking behind dropping him back in trip is fairly simple. I started him off over two-and-a-half last year at Hereford and I never gave him the chance to run over two. He ran well in the Neptune and we thought he may get three miles which he patently didn't because at Liverpool he was bang with them two out and was beaten 10 lengths so he didn't get the three.
"He's a horse that won over a mile and a quarter at Newmarket on the Flat and he was as going as well as anything in the Neptune, he's got speed.
"We're going to be a lot older and wiser on Saturday night."
The six-year-old Tiger Hill gelding hasn't been seen this season after unseating Denis O'Regan when ducking left in the Neptune behind Simonsig at last year's Cheltenham Festival and finishing third over three miles in a Grade One at Aintree.
That last appearance was back in April but Ferguson isn't concerned by his absence from the track as he explained at Doncaster on Monday.
Profiles J P Ferguson Cotton Mill
"He's very well I'm very happy with him," Ferguson told sportinglife.com. "He's been A1 throughout the season but I haven't run him because the ground has been so heavy. I wasn't convinced he'd go on heavy ground and I didn't feel he needed heavy ground races early in the year.
"He's starting off a fresh horse, whatever he does at Newbury he'll improve for it and Newbury will tell us a lot. If the ground is decent we'll have a good idea if his next start is over two miles or two-miles-five."
The Champion Hurdle could be on the cards for Cotton Mill if he runs well this weekend, though Ferguson says all plans are on hold until he's proven himself over two miles.
Cotton Mill's last appearance came over three miles at Aintree, but it's a trip he's unlikely to run over again as Ferguson looks for options over two and possibly two-and-a-half miles.
He continued: "Cheltenham is in our thoughts, but to take the Betfair Hurdle along the way would be nice.
"The thinking behind dropping him back in trip is fairly simple. I started him off over two-and-a-half last year at Hereford and I never gave him the chance to run over two. He ran well in the Neptune and we thought he may get three miles which he patently didn't because at Liverpool he was bang with them two out and was beaten 10 lengths so he didn't get the three.
"He's a horse that won over a mile and a quarter at Newmarket on the Flat and he was as going as well as anything in the Neptune, he's got speed.
"We're going to be a lot older and wiser on Saturday night."
re- court minstrel Evan Williams has warned leading contender Court Minstrel is far from certain to take his chance in the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.
The six-year-old ran out an impressive winner on his debut over obstacles at Cheltenham in October and emerged with huge credit when third behind top novice Dodging Bullets at the same track a month later, having suffered trouble in running.
He was slightly disappointing when only fourth in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time and having struggled to cope in the mud on that occasion, Williams insists his charge will only line up this weekend if conditions are right.
The trainer said: "We are keeping an eye on it, but he definitely won't run if the ground is very soft. It will have to dry out considerably for him to run.
"He's in grand form at home and I would prefer to run him if I can because the prize-money is so good, but the one thing we learnt at Sandown is that he can't handle very soft ground, so there is no point running him on it again this weekend.
"There is a bit of drying weather around at the moment, so we might be all right, but conditions will have to be suitable for him."
Court Minstrel holds an entry in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at next month's Cheltenham Festival, but at this stage Williams is keen to go down the handicap route with a horse he believes is well treated off a mark of 131.
"He won't run in top novice company as, in my opinion, he is not a Grade One novice," said the trainer.
"My feeling is that on good ground he is a well-handicapped horse, so we might as well look at the handicaps at those better meetings for the time being.
"Whether he runs on Saturday or not, spring will arrive at some stage and I am sure there is a good prize in him when he gets on some good ground." from atr site.
The six-year-old ran out an impressive winner on his debut over obstacles at Cheltenham in October and emerged with huge credit when third behind top novice Dodging Bullets at the same track a month later, having suffered trouble in running.
He was slightly disappointing when only fourth in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time and having struggled to cope in the mud on that occasion, Williams insists his charge will only line up this weekend if conditions are right.
The trainer said: "We are keeping an eye on it, but he definitely won't run if the ground is very soft. It will have to dry out considerably for him to run.
"He's in grand form at home and I would prefer to run him if I can because the prize-money is so good, but the one thing we learnt at Sandown is that he can't handle very soft ground, so there is no point running him on it again this weekend.
"There is a bit of drying weather around at the moment, so we might be all right, but conditions will have to be suitable for him."
Court Minstrel holds an entry in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at next month's Cheltenham Festival, but at this stage Williams is keen to go down the handicap route with a horse he believes is well treated off a mark of 131.
"He won't run in top novice company as, in my opinion, he is not a Grade One novice," said the trainer.
"My feeling is that on good ground he is a well-handicapped horse, so we might as well look at the handicaps at those better meetings for the time being.
"Whether he runs on Saturday or not, spring will arrive at some stage and I am sure there is a good prize in him when he gets on some good ground." from atr site.
roo- would court minstrels mark[131] need to rise for him to get a run in a hcap at cheltenham? cheers.
Would have been 1lb off getting in last year (132 bottom)
129 was botton in 2011
129 bottom in 2010
127 in 2009
129 was botton in 2011
129 bottom in 2010
127 in 2009
Assuming County hurdle would be his target which is pretty much nailed on ^^
Thanks BJG, all I knew it was going to be nip and tuck. Problem might be the top weight and getting in the handicap proper.
If he runs off that mark in the County, I will deffo be playing him......along with one other.
If he runs off that mark in the County, I will deffo be playing him......along with one other.
Wheres our stats man for the race, it's getting close now :)
The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 9th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 3 winners had run in just 3 hurdles race prior to landing this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2012):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 4-11-57
6yo: 3-8-65
7yo: 2-3-44
8yo: 0-3-21
9yo: 1-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-9
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 6 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-83
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-132
6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-9 or less to victory.
Since 2000 2 of 4 winners to carry 10-10+ to victory had finished in first 2 in the ****.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start
The other 2 were Copeland (who had finished 2nd in this race before) and Zarkandar (who had won the Triumph Hurdle the previous season)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 2-4-33
Horses rated 131 to 144: 6-22-143
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-4-39
Both winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while both winners rated in the 120’s were trained by Gary Moore.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos winning race for second time)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
Other Races
Cheltenham’s Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner: 117 (2-0-3)
Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 102 (1-1-3)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 7031 (1-1-4)
****.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Abbey Lane): 71 (1-0-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 4 (0-1-1)
Gerry Feilden winner (Lyvius): 4 (0-1-1)
Download The William Hill App Handicap Hurdle winner (Bourne): 02 (0-1-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Cause Of Causes): P0P3 (0-1-4)
Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 06 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Hurdle winner (Olofi): 97 (0-0-2)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Lord Of House): 8070 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on 8 Dec, finishing 173
3 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle last time, finishing 119
2 of 10 winners ran in ****.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-4-29) has won this 3 times since 2000, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 18 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-2-10) trained 2 of last 5 winners & also saddled a placed finisher last year.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) have saddled a winner in the past 3 years and they were responsible for the 1st & 2nd last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-6-15) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his 15 runners finishing in the top six, 6 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-3-8) have accounted for 6 of the 12 horses to finish in the first 4 in the past 3 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in ****.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 8 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 to 7 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
· Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
· Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
· First or second season hurdler
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
· Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
· Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
· Finished in first 5 in ****.com or Steel Plate & Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
· Finished in first 3 in Sportingbet H'cap Hurdle at Sandown
· Trained by Gary Moore, Alan King, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs
via Racecaller
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2012):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 4-11-57
6yo: 3-8-65
7yo: 2-3-44
8yo: 0-3-21
9yo: 1-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-9
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 6 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-83
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-132
6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-9 or less to victory.
Since 2000 2 of 4 winners to carry 10-10+ to victory had finished in first 2 in the ****.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start
The other 2 were Copeland (who had finished 2nd in this race before) and Zarkandar (who had won the Triumph Hurdle the previous season)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 2-4-33
Horses rated 131 to 144: 6-22-143
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-4-39
Both winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while both winners rated in the 120’s were trained by Gary Moore.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos winning race for second time)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
Other Races
Cheltenham’s Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner: 117 (2-0-3)
Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 102 (1-1-3)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 7031 (1-1-4)
****.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Abbey Lane): 71 (1-0-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 4 (0-1-1)
Gerry Feilden winner (Lyvius): 4 (0-1-1)
Download The William Hill App Handicap Hurdle winner (Bourne): 02 (0-1-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Cause Of Causes): P0P3 (0-1-4)
Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 06 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Hurdle winner (Olofi): 97 (0-0-2)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Lord Of House): 8070 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on 8 Dec, finishing 173
3 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle last time, finishing 119
2 of 10 winners ran in ****.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-4-29) has won this 3 times since 2000, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 18 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-2-10) trained 2 of last 5 winners & also saddled a placed finisher last year.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) have saddled a winner in the past 3 years and they were responsible for the 1st & 2nd last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-6-15) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his 15 runners finishing in the top six, 6 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-3-8) have accounted for 6 of the 12 horses to finish in the first 4 in the past 3 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in ****.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 8 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 to 7 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
· Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
· Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
· First or second season hurdler
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
· Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
· Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
· Finished in first 5 in ****.com or Steel Plate & Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
· Finished in first 3 in Sportingbet H'cap Hurdle at Sandown
· Trained by Gary Moore, Alan King, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs
via Racecaller
Backed the first three winners of this race in the 1960s and
used the same method for spotting the winner, first run at Aintree ROSYTH was the first winner, when moved to Newbury
ROSYTH had only gone up 1lb from previous year, but had shown some sort of form as it had, by running prominently until tiring close home, the third winner LE VERMONTOIS did a similar type of race previously, I failed miserably when
I refused to back HILL HOUSE because I thought that RYAN PRICE would be warned off and so backed another horse from the same stable BEAVER II, HILL HOUSE won and PRICE was duly disqualified.
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
used the same method for spotting the winner, first run at Aintree ROSYTH was the first winner, when moved to Newbury
ROSYTH had only gone up 1lb from previous year, but had shown some sort of form as it had, by running prominently until tiring close home, the third winner LE VERMONTOIS did a similar type of race previously, I failed miserably when
I refused to back HILL HOUSE because I thought that RYAN PRICE would be warned off and so backed another horse from the same stable BEAVER II, HILL HOUSE won and PRICE was duly disqualified.
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
bazzar 06 Feb 13 13:39
B
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
tad dramatic !! I'm sure this forum will be on tenterhooks until those last minutes - waiting with bated breath
B
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
tad dramatic !! I'm sure this forum will be on tenterhooks until those last minutes - waiting with bated breath
Since the race is on Saturday I wouldn't do ANYTHING daft like holding my breath, but superstition guides me in this instance, but then you are a clever clogs and so you may hold YOUR breath.
STICK TO FACTS, if that is possible!!!!
STICK TO FACTS, if that is possible!!!!
So it doesn't matter if you post the horse now then does it?
I have explained myself and will stick to what I
have posted, except now it will be during running.
If you are such confident punters why would you look for other peoples opinions?
There is ALWAYS someone ready to run others down, particularly if they
have a different opinion to theirs, if I have shown a bombastic attitude
like claiming to be the BEST punter on this site, then I would deserve
criticism, all I have said is I will not give out name until just before the race,
now it will be during running.
have posted, except now it will be during running.
If you are such confident punters why would you look for other peoples opinions?
There is ALWAYS someone ready to run others down, particularly if they
have a different opinion to theirs, if I have shown a bombastic attitude
like claiming to be the BEST punter on this site, then I would deserve
criticism, all I have said is I will not give out name until just before the race,
now it will be during running.
Anyway now Court Minstrel has been declared I have had to play him with the comfort of NRNB. To me 14s is great value imo
Based on the profile of those three 1960's winners it's obvious who Bazzaar has backed - however I am susperstitious so won't let everyone know until after they have jumped the last on Saturday.
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Freezin at Hunt 2day 
< that's the colour of my face
roo - re CM, trainer said he'd declare him but if it's soft on the day he'l pull him out.
< that's the colour of my faceroo - re CM, trainer said he'd declare him but if it's soft on the day he'l pull him out.
Cheers liam, wasn't going to back him pre decs. Drying day at Newbury and considering how the ground dried at time of Hennessy I think it'll be g/s if no more rain
Yep, dries out quick there, times v slow at Hunt and Taunton 2day tho ...
bazzar 07 Feb 13 11:29
I have explained myself and will stick to what I
have posted, except now it will be during running.
If you are such confident punters why would you look for other peoples opinions?
There is ALWAYS someone ready to run others down, particularly if they
have a different opinion to theirs, if I have shown a bombastic attitude
like claiming to be the BEST punter on this site, then I would deserve
criticism, all I have said is I will not give out name until just before the race,
now it will be during running.
lunacy.
I expect you'll give it out as they past the post....and - well I never/would you believe it - ... its the winner !!
I have explained myself and will stick to what I
have posted, except now it will be during running.
If you are such confident punters why would you look for other peoples opinions?
There is ALWAYS someone ready to run others down, particularly if they
have a different opinion to theirs, if I have shown a bombastic attitude
like claiming to be the BEST punter on this site, then I would deserve
criticism, all I have said is I will not give out name until just before the race,
now it will be during running.
lunacy.
I expect you'll give it out as they past the post....and - well I never/would you believe it - ... its the winner !!
I think you mean "as they PASS the post", you are the lunatic you can't spell
and you criticise me, you are also much too previous in your latest post,
perhaps if you had waited then you MIGHT have been able to level that
particular criticism at me, thicko.
and you criticise me, you are also much too previous in your latest post,
perhaps if you had waited then you MIGHT have been able to level that
particular criticism at me, thicko.
Looks on a good mark based on his Cheltenham run, galloping track should suit and top jockey/trainer combo. I've got stuck into it at double figures with PP each way place 5. Has to run a big race
Court Minstrel has a very very workable handicap mark but I suspect he needs the ground firmer than it will be tomorrow
bazzar
You are an arrogant twaat aren't you.
WHY on earth would ANYONE care what you have bet let alone wait for you to post minutes before the off as if you are some kind of punting god
Clueless guessers like you are two a penny on here simply seeking attention
My suggestion fwiw is to stick your selection up your arse and don't bother posting it at ANY time, the only people interested are those that like me would come back and slaughter you for acting like a billy big bollox
Do one you tool
BTW Village Vic wins at 20/1
You are an arrogant twaat aren't you.
WHY on earth would ANYONE care what you have bet let alone wait for you to post minutes before the off as if you are some kind of punting god
Clueless guessers like you are two a penny on here simply seeking attention
My suggestion fwiw is to stick your selection up your arse and don't bother posting it at ANY time, the only people interested are those that like me would come back and slaughter you for acting like a billy big bollox
Do one you tool
BTW Village Vic wins at 20/1
eeeeeeeeeeee i think my tent or yours will win, keep it to yourself.
I know it sounds mad but I'm going to back Manyriverstocross each way.
Lyvius each way for me. While his Lanzarote run was very poor, I'll use the ground as an excuse for him. Massively overpriced at 40/1 and 60s on here and he's a very good each way punt.
Cash and Go is the only one towards the top of the market I'm interested in. I will be interested to see how Court Minstrel runs though and hope he can boost Melodic Rendezvous form somemore before the supreme
Cash and Go is the only one towards the top of the market I'm interested in. I will be interested to see how Court Minstrel runs though and hope he can boost Melodic Rendezvous form somemore before the supreme
By: This user is offline. EdwardWoowardWould
Date Joined: 18 May 12 Add contact | Send message When: 08 Feb 13 20:32 Joined: Date Joined: 18 May 12 | Topic/replies: 1,559 | Blogger: EdwardWoowardWould's blog
bazzar
You are an arrogant twaat aren't you.
WHY on earth would ANYONE care what you have bet let alone wait for you to post minutes before the off as if you are some kind of punting god
Clueless guessers like you are two a penny on here simply seeking attention
My suggestion fwiw is to stick your selection up your arse and don't bother posting it at ANY time, the only people interested are those that like me would come back and slaughter you for acting like a billy big bollox
Do one you tool
couldnt have put that better myself, 5 star reply
Date Joined: 18 May 12 Add contact | Send message When: 08 Feb 13 20:32 Joined: Date Joined: 18 May 12 | Topic/replies: 1,559 | Blogger: EdwardWoowardWould's blog
bazzar
You are an arrogant twaat aren't you.
WHY on earth would ANYONE care what you have bet let alone wait for you to post minutes before the off as if you are some kind of punting god
Clueless guessers like you are two a penny on here simply seeking attention
My suggestion fwiw is to stick your selection up your arse and don't bother posting it at ANY time, the only people interested are those that like me would come back and slaughter you for acting like a billy big bollox
Do one you tool
couldnt have put that better myself, 5 star reply
not really a betting race for me, more of a watching brief as have a vested interest in MTOY for the supreme and COURT MINSTREL for the county, but have chucked a few quid at LYVIUS at 40-1 in the hope he can run into a place, good luck all
bit worried about the ground, although i don't entirely believe henderson when he said the horse don't like the going, that was just an excuse for bring an unfit horse to a race track to publicly school.
Excellent call, even got the price right. Are you a wizard?
Well done brooksie and other winners - couldn't be bothered to find and bump your thread.
He was indeed very very impressive - no doubt who McCoy will ride in Supreme now
He was indeed very very impressive - no doubt who McCoy will ride in Supreme now
well done brooksie and others from the beginning of the thread,cant remember who they were.
unclepuncle 09 Feb 13 21:14
bazzar
09 Feb 13 15:36
NUMBER 9 .
bazzar
09 Feb 13 15:36
NUMBER 9 .
Won really well.. I expected him to win but not that easily... was impressed with the second Cotton Mill... that was an impressive 2nd place considering its first run of the season ... I hope Denis O Regan is back on board next time ... and see whether he turns up for the Champion Hurdle...But MTOY was the star of the show!
I have been wrong in my judgement before and I will be wrong again,
but the amount of abuse because I WOULD NOT NAME my choice shows,
the depth of unreasonability which abounds on this forum, care in the
community and it's escapees spring to mind.
One person states that I am arrogant and in the same sentence asks me to
agree with him, with NOT A QUESTION MARK IN SIGHT, obviously the mentally deranged find difficulty in a reasonable critique!!!!
These deranged people ALWAYS have supporters, witness a person who chooses
a nom de plume using an excellent racehorse from the past and not matching even that horses
intelligence, not EVEN when that horse is dead!!!!
MY TENT OR YOURS is obviously very good and I think that JPMc will not be able to resist a
go at the Champion Hurdle, 8/1 is a real price.
but the amount of abuse because I WOULD NOT NAME my choice shows,
the depth of unreasonability which abounds on this forum, care in the
community and it's escapees spring to mind.
One person states that I am arrogant and in the same sentence asks me to
agree with him, with NOT A QUESTION MARK IN SIGHT, obviously the mentally deranged find difficulty in a reasonable critique!!!!
These deranged people ALWAYS have supporters, witness a person who chooses
a nom de plume using an excellent racehorse from the past and not matching even that horses
intelligence, not EVEN when that horse is dead!!!!
MY TENT OR YOURS is obviously very good and I think that JPMc will not be able to resist a
go at the Champion Hurdle, 8/1 is a real price.
8-1 WAR would be an OK price, he was very impressive. But JP will listen to AP, and after hearing his post race comments I'd want 8-1 on him turning up for the Champion.
Bazzar, there's no shame in getting it wrong, I went in heavily each way on Cash and Go. The problem occurs when you start bigging yourself up and acting like you've uncovered a near certainty and then refuse to name it until the race starts. You can end up looking very silly if the horse doesn't win and a complete fool if it trails in stone cold last. Which it did.
Much better to just state your opinion and give reasoning much as the OP did with devastating accuracy. Well done that man.
Much better to just state your opinion and give reasoning much as the OP did with devastating accuracy. Well done that man.
bazzar 10 Feb 13 11:47
I have been wrong in my judgement before and I will be wrong again,
but the amount of abuse because I WOULD NOT NAME my choice shows,
the depth of unreasonability which abounds on this forum, care in the
community and it's escapees spring to mind.
One person states that I am arrogant and in the same sentence asks me to
agree with him, with NOT A QUESTION MARK IN SIGHT, obviously the mentally deranged find difficulty in a reasonable critique!!!!
These deranged people ALWAYS have supporters, witness a person who chooses
a nom de plume using an excellent racehorse from the past and not matching even that horses
intelligence, not EVEN when that horse is dead!!!!
Go to the other forum. Keep this one sane.
I have been wrong in my judgement before and I will be wrong again,
but the amount of abuse because I WOULD NOT NAME my choice shows,
the depth of unreasonability which abounds on this forum, care in the
community and it's escapees spring to mind.
One person states that I am arrogant and in the same sentence asks me to
agree with him, with NOT A QUESTION MARK IN SIGHT, obviously the mentally deranged find difficulty in a reasonable critique!!!!
These deranged people ALWAYS have supporters, witness a person who chooses
a nom de plume using an excellent racehorse from the past and not matching even that horses
intelligence, not EVEN when that horse is dead!!!!
Go to the other forum. Keep this one sane.
this good thread turned bazzar when bazzar turned up 
Hoo gives a flying fukk wot that obstinate old **** finx
Liam, some did obviously, I would have just left it as it was, but the child
in some took over!!!!
in some took over!!!!
MINIG 11, was it a deliberate lie or just a mistake on your part?
Apologies Bazarr. My mistake entirely. Your 'good thing' fell out the back of my telly after 6f and I assumed he'd finished last. He actually didn't finish at all. Thanks for highlighting this.
Facts, that is what I try to convey, I DON'T MEAN THE POSTER WHO
USES THAT WORD.
USES THAT WORD.
Was it a deliberate lie or just a mistake on your part?
So bazz was your post a mistake or a deliberate lie?
ROOBUCK it was neither, I thought I had spotted a similarity to
a situation of occurrencies prior to what had happened about fifty years ago, obviously I was wrong, I am much wiser now and will re-group to my OWN satisfaction, what is clear if anyone wants to get up the children's noses, just withold the name of your choice, then watch the sparks fly, idiots!!!!!!!!!
a situation of occurrencies prior to what had happened about fifty years ago, obviously I was wrong, I am much wiser now and will re-group to my OWN satisfaction, what is clear if anyone wants to get up the children's noses, just withold the name of your choice, then watch the sparks fly, idiots!!!!!!!!!
No bazz couldn't give a to55 about your selection - the post about the horse that came last
He was talking about about the FACT that you got the name of the horse wrong who finished last in the Betfair Hurdle
i thought it was rather poor on a forum to act the way you did bazaar, give your selection and a reasonable arguement for or against it is quite a simple task, i back horses to win, rarely each way and never in running i trust my judgement win lose or draw simples.
Funny you should hold that opinion, because that is what I thought about others opinions as regards my post, I believe that you like many others had read, BUT NOT digested what was written,
you followed others like a lot on here and I have only backed in running on a VERY few occasions, I dropped more than a ton EW on the horse so I did believe I had spotted something which had worked many years ago but unfortunately I was wrong, obviously the theory did not travel from the past, there are a whole host of posters on here who are followers and that is what annoys them, what is wrong with a belief in YOUR OWN ABILITY?
you followed others like a lot on here and I have only backed in running on a VERY few occasions, I dropped more than a ton EW on the horse so I did believe I had spotted something which had worked many years ago but unfortunately I was wrong, obviously the theory did not travel from the past, there are a whole host of posters on here who are followers and that is what annoys them, what is wrong with a belief in YOUR OWN ABILITY?
Backed the first three winners of this race in the 1960s and
used the same method for spotting the winner, first run at Aintree ROSYTH was the first winner, when moved to Newbury
ROSYTH had only gone up 1lb from previous year, but had shown some sort of form as it had, by running prominently until tiring close home, the third winner LE VERMONTOIS did a similar type of race previously, I failed miserably when
I refused to back HILL HOUSE because I thought that RYAN PRICE would be warned off and so backed another horse from the same stable BEAVER II, HILL HOUSE won and PRICE was duly disqualified.
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
you dug yourself a pretty big hole there mate but instead of climbing out...
I have explained myself and will stick to what I
have posted, except now it will be during running
you started digging some more
used the same method for spotting the winner, first run at Aintree ROSYTH was the first winner, when moved to Newbury
ROSYTH had only gone up 1lb from previous year, but had shown some sort of form as it had, by running prominently until tiring close home, the third winner LE VERMONTOIS did a similar type of race previously, I failed miserably when
I refused to back HILL HOUSE because I thought that RYAN PRICE would be warned off and so backed another horse from the same stable BEAVER II, HILL HOUSE won and PRICE was duly disqualified.
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.
you dug yourself a pretty big hole there mate but instead of climbing out...
I have explained myself and will stick to what I
have posted, except now it will be during running
you started digging some more
But this is a forum bazz, its about sharing opinions on horses/races - if not why bother coming on?
You ask for info a lot of times and wish for access to video etc. You don't actually know that posters are followers but what's wrong with sharing your experience and knowledge? People will disagree and have a different opinion but does that matter? No
However your posting betrays a level of either arrogance or plain rudeness, I'm not sure which really. Neither do I care as I have moved on.
Sorry one final thing you have a penchant for being very pedantic and picking up people for slight mistakes or not have a question mark after a question.
Yet when you try and correct someone about the name of a horse that came last in a race, you couldn't even spell the name correctly. Nobody would say anything as its an obvious but you so readily accuse people of lying it deserves that the question be asked of you. Noted that you didn't have the decency to correct yourself
You ask for info a lot of times and wish for access to video etc. You don't actually know that posters are followers but what's wrong with sharing your experience and knowledge? People will disagree and have a different opinion but does that matter? No
However your posting betrays a level of either arrogance or plain rudeness, I'm not sure which really. Neither do I care as I have moved on.
Sorry one final thing you have a penchant for being very pedantic and picking up people for slight mistakes or not have a question mark after a question.
Yet when you try and correct someone about the name of a horse that came last in a race, you couldn't even spell the name correctly. Nobody would say anything as its an obvious but you so readily accuse people of lying it deserves that the question be asked of you. Noted that you didn't have the decency to correct yourself
ROOBUCK, my mistake it should have read INGLEBY SPIRIT, and you drew my attention to the mistake, I remain your arrogant servant.
There might be a bit of ageism with some.
This site does NOT require ANYONE to tip horses as you rightly say it is a forum,
ROO but there is not a rule to say I must spout my choice.
This site does NOT require ANYONE to tip horses as you rightly say it is a forum,
ROO but there is not a rule to say I must spout my choice.
As regards EDWARDWOODWARDWOULD, I was more annoyed that he wanted me to
agree with him, by the way he has missed out the third letter D in his nom de plume.
agree with him, by the way he has missed out the third letter D in his nom de plume.
Bazz your trying to be clever and it keeps back firing.
You now have the temerity to bring ageism into it. You are very quickly becoming like Eric Morris so I suggest you just shut up and stop making things up. If you were not so pedantic and arrogant there wouldn't even been any issues.
Just stick to discussing horses. If people make mistakes, leave them to it.
You now have the temerity to bring ageism into it. You are very quickly becoming like Eric Morris so I suggest you just shut up and stop making things up. If you were not so pedantic and arrogant there wouldn't even been any issues.
Just stick to discussing horses. If people make mistakes, leave them to it.
Btw, notice how I spelt Your, there. You'll like that.
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