Assuming County hurdle would be his target which is pretty much nailed on ^^

Massively well handicapped when getting his conditions

The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 9th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 3 winners had run in just 3 hurdles race prior to landing this. 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2012):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 4-11-57
6yo: 3-8-65
7yo: 2-3-44
8yo: 0-3-21
9yo: 1-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-9
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 6 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-83
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-132
6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-9 or less to victory.
Since 2000 2 of 4 winners to carry 10-10+ to victory had finished in first 2 in the ****.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start
The other 2 were Copeland (who had finished 2nd in this race before) and Zarkandar (who had won the Triumph Hurdle the previous season)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 2-4-33
Horses rated 131 to 144: 6-22-143
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-4-39
Both winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while both winners rated in the 120’s were trained by Gary Moore.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos winning race for second time)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

Other Races
Cheltenham’s Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner: 117 (2-0-3)
Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 102 (1-1-3)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 7031 (1-1-4)
****.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Abbey Lane): 71 (1-0-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 4 (0-1-1)
Gerry Feilden winner (Lyvius): 4 (0-1-1)
Download The William Hill App Handicap Hurdle winner (Bourne): 02 (0-1-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Cause Of Causes): P0P3 (0-1-4)
Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 06 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Hurdle winner (Olofi): 97 (0-0-2)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Lord Of House): 8070 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on 8 Dec, finishing 173
3 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle last time, finishing 119
2 of 10 winners ran in ****.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-4-29) has won this 3 times since 2000, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 18 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-2-10) trained 2 of last 5 winners & also saddled a placed finisher last year.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) have saddled a winner in the past 3 years and they were responsible for the 1st & 2nd last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-6-15) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his 15 runners finishing in the top six, 6 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-3-8) have accounted for 6 of the 12 horses to finish in the first 4 in the past 3 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in ****.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.

Price
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 8 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 5 to 7 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
·         Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
·         Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
·         First or second season hurdler
·         Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
·         Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
·         Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
·         Finished in first 5 in ****.com or Steel Plate & Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
·         Finished in first 3 in Sportingbet H'cap Hurdle at Sandown
·         Trained by Gary Moore, Alan King, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs



via Racecaller

Backed the first three winners of this race in the 1960s and
used the same method for spotting the winner, first run at Aintree ROSYTH was the first winner, when moved to Newbury
ROSYTH had only gone up 1lb from previous year, but had shown some sort of form as it had, by running prominently until tiring close home, the third winner LE VERMONTOIS  did a similar type of race previously, I failed miserably when
I refused to back HILL HOUSE because I thought that RYAN PRICE would be warned off and so backed another horse from the same stable BEAVER II, HILL HOUSE won and PRICE was duly disqualified.
I spotted a similar type of pre-race form similar to all those years ago, I will disclose the name just minutes before the off.

Since the race is on Saturday I wouldn't do ANYTHING daft like holding my breath, but superstition guides me in this instance, but then you are a clever clogs and so you may hold YOUR breath.
STICK TO FACTS, if that is possible!!!!

bazzar

my money is down already - see above post.

So it doesn't matter if you post the horse now then does it?

A bit sad that

Based on the profile of those three 1960's winners it's obvious who Bazzaar has backed - however I am susperstitious so won't let everyone know until after they have jumped the last on Saturday.

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Don't know but dry and very sunny in Newbury today

Cheers liam, wasn't going to back him pre decs. Drying day at Newbury and considering how the ground dried at time of Hennessy I think it'll be g/s if no more rain

Yep, dries out quick there, times v slow at Hunt and Taunton 2day tho ...

I think you mean "as they PASS the post", you are the lunatic you can't spell
and you criticise me, you are also much too previous in your latest post,
perhaps if you had waited then you MIGHT have been able to level that
particular criticism at me, thicko.

Hope so Ming owes me few quid this season.

go

bazzar

You are an arrogant twaat aren't you.

WHY on earth would ANYONE care what you have bet let alone wait for you to post minutes before the off as if you are some kind of punting god

Clueless guessers like you are two a penny on here simply seeking attention

My suggestion fwiw is to stick your selection up your arse and don't bother posting it at ANY time, the only people interested are those that like me would come back and slaughter you for acting like a billy big bollox

Do one you tool

BTW Village Vic wins at 20/1

eeeeeeeeeeee i think my tent or yours will win, keep it to yourself.

I know it sounds mad but I'm going to back Manyriverstocross each way.

Lyvius each way for me. While his Lanzarote run was very poor, I'll use the ground as an excuse for him. Massively overpriced at 40/1 and 60s on here and he's a very good each way punt.

Cash and Go is the only one towards the top of the market I'm interested in. I will be interested to see how Court Minstrel runs though and hope he can boost Melodic Rendezvous form somemore before the supreme

yep