Giles Cross' form from last year has worked out well, But I can't back him again personally. Not because of the virus thingy, although that is obviously a big concern, but because he appears to get outstayed in this race, though losing to Synchronised and LBB is no bad thing.

Tidal Bay

"The more I think back about it, Barry (Geraghty) rode a great race on Bobs Worth," said Nicholls.
"The horse is mad fresh at the moment and is going to run in the Lexus."

Hey Big Spender

Tizzard said: "He did some fast work yesterday morning and Wetherby should be his first race. He picked up a small injury in February and he came back in a bit later than the others.

"He was getting better and better last season and his win at Warwick was probably a career-best performance."




Weights gonna go up by 13lbs at least or even more

Across the Bay next in is 100 on here and doesnt look like a runner
Uncle Junior and Raz De Maree(PP Chase>?) must b very unlikely too

The other 1 on 10-8 is Hold On Julio, dunno wat his plans are but if comin here he is the likely top weight imo

think the weights will go up by at least 16lbs personally

They are not going to go to fast if its heavy, and he is a stone better horse on heavy ground

Thanks, BJG - disappointing as I really liked Hey Big Spender for this - I note he's also entered in the re-scheduled Peterborough Chase but assume by Wetherby, they mean the Rowland Meyrick?

Understandable as Welsh National probably not a race you'd want to take on after a long break - he was going really nicely in the race before toppling over last year.

Hope they grasp the nettle with him and go Neptune Colonges route - Grand National trial and then on to Aintree and just hunt him round at the back for a circuit - he does n't quite have the class of Neptune of course.

Back to the drawing board for Welsh National

Hasn't won over a trip as short as 3 miles over fences for some time has he though? Best recent form over further.

He is a far better jumper of a fence since joining Nicholls, watch how he jumped round Sandown, he never touched a twig, and he showed he still has the speed for three miles by taking a hurdle race recently.
If you go by stats and you use the number of runners Nicholls sends to the Emerald isle pro-rata to winners, then you cant ignore his chance of winning is huge.

I did originally fancy Quartz De Thaix for this but had a hard race at Cheltenham and will surely miss this now but would probably be too high in the weights and possibly not a true stayer after being outstayed on the run in on Friday. Le Beau Bai ran atrociously at Newbury last time in a race he won before last year's victory, Hennessy runners do poorly in this so could be Viking Blond's turn although it probably makes sense to wait until nearer the day to see the shape of the race.

ReaseHeath 16 Dec 12 14:16 
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Can't understand the decision to route Tidal Bay to the Lexus. All he does nowadays is stay, and think the Welsh would be tailor made for him, and would expect them to go too fast for him over the much shorter Lexus trip.

T43 for me in the Welsh.

They're thinking Gold Cup for TB and going the Synchronised route - he was beaten 3.25 lengths giving Gold Cup favourite 6 lbs in Hennessy so why would n't they? I appreciate that's a literal interpretation of the form and he needs cut but don't think carrying top weight in Welsh National is conducive to his campaign plan.

Suspect they might think about Argento also after Lexus.

I've never really regarded Tidal Bay as a Gold Cup horse. Having said that, prior to the Lexus last year, I'd never regarded the ill-fated Synchronised as a Gold Cup horse (though I did back him to win the Gold Cup on the day, after his Lexus run). It would be one of the best training feats to get this aged warrior to win the Blue Riband event in March, given his somewhat chequered past, and I must admit I'd be a little disappointed if there would be nothing good enough to beat him from the younger brigade.

I agree with what someone posted earlier about he now seems to travel with much more zest, and jump more smoothly than he became accustomed to, but still have a feeling that he's essentially a real stayer, who might get done for tactical speed in the Lexus, and that the Welsh National might be more up his street. He won't bump into a likely Gold Cup winner in the Welsh, whereas he will in the Lexus.

Now, I probably had the same opinion about Synchronised last year, so please ignore me.

Is he going to run off his correct weight? Handicapper has dropped him 3lb since Newbury.

With TB i'm bearing in mind he has only had 6 runs for PFN. That is enough not to rule him out of the Gold Cup imo. Soft ground in March and there may not be a dry eye in the house.

As far as TB is concerned, why not aim for the stars? Already achieved so much and ran in the some of the top races, why go for this?

Not sure I could say conclusively that Tidal Bay would have beaten First Lieutenant over 2 furlongs shorter, based on Hennessy running.

OK maybe the form turnaround with Stow from a couple of weeks ago was a bit too big  - but at least that one advertised it today.

Just think deep ground over fences at Chepstow is what fires this horse up so not unduly worried but I accept not at current price

I'm doing the trend analysis for this race at the moment, hopefully finished by weekend, so will put up that analysis once I'm done with updating the spreadsheet.

Aye cheers thought so.

JOCI 5 days to compile your trends? The odds could have halved by then, shape up or ship out.

booster     17 Dec 12 06:56 
I did originally fancy Quartz De Thaix for this but had a hard race at Cheltenham and will surely miss this now but would probably be too high in the weights and possibly not a true stayer after being outstayed on the run in on Friday. Le Beau Bai ran atrociously at Newbury last time in a race he won before last year's victory, Hennessy runners do poorly in this so could be Viking Blond's turn although it probably makes sense to wait until nearer the day to see the shape of the race.


Don't rule out Quartz De Thaix. VW did exactly the same thing with Mon Mome a few years ago. Mon Mome actually won the Chelt race on the Friday, started fav or near fav at Chepstow and was well beaten. Got beaten a few more times then popped up at Aintree only a few months later at 100/1.

As I recall there was a bit of a charge on Mon Mome on here for the Welsh National.

I was only commenting on it's participation, or not, Roo.

For what it's worth I thought QdT ran a great race on Friday. Giving 13lb to a proven, thorough stayer like Master Overseer and only just getting chinned was a good effort. Stable in great form. Loves soft ground. Recovering from Friday's race the big if though.

I also think he ran a great race on Friday and at least showed his new mark's not beyond him although he'll probably go up 3lbs for that. I see him as a contender for the 3 mile handicap chase on the Tuesday of the festival and a possible National contender. Lots of form on left hand tracks but a slight stamina doubt for Liverpool.

i agree joci as michel le bon was my main fancy along with viking blond but the weights could go up 18lb and this would bring major malarkey right into it although he is a dour stayer he has yet to run a race on genuinely heavy going

Its interesting to read that many people feel that Giles Cross doesnt stay the trip. I think he does but that he needs to be held up until the last minute as he doesnt do a tap in front. He was tanking in last years race so it was no surprise that Denis O Regan kicked on as he was going so well and then emptied on him. If you watch a replay of his next race at Haydock he held on to him for as long as possible and put his head in front after the last and even then near got nabbed. I believe someone else will be on board this time so they will need to know how to ride him.

cheers Joci.

I see what you are saying Betlitred. Connections did say they learnt how to ride him last season. Though the Haydock race was 3f shorter and a lower mark. I think he is probably a back to lay in-running.