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Paddy Power Gold Cup - Nov 17th Cheltenham.
Paddy Power Gold Cup - Nov 17th Cheltenham.
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Replies: 536
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Was posting on the Flat Thread but went on holiday around the Ebor meeting & forgot to carry on posting my bets
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deep
 vinnie..yeah..think PN is putting HD to claim 7 off poq...who knows what FNS will get now..but the way he rode him out today..think todays race was the plan  |
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Champion court looks the value play, based on the Jewson form, but connections have already said that he is unlikely to run.
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may change their minds now vincent.
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howdi...you'd have to consider it eh...re CC
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trev - he was my pick before todays race which after that run today makes him about 4-9 in my head
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Micheal Flips and Our Mick would be interesting if entered?
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I was simply gobsmacked by today's performance by FNS. On reflection though this is how I've dealt with those initial feelings of cacking it due to my exposure on Grand Crus.
On balance I don't think I'm talking myself into this, I think the initial sway of emotion, enthusiasm and possibly getting carried away has been tempered somewhat. So who did he beat ? Wishful Thinking. Who has well known breathing issues still and who was lumping top weight. FNS was getting nearly a stone from him. As for the rest of the field, the 3rd who was written off in the betting, nearly made it all and comes from a stable in form. The remainder contained 2 Pulled Up and Jason took a spill from the most credible challenger Gauvain. I backed Noble Prince and he was blatantly not yet ready after a long lay off and a few problems. In summary the performance of FNS was impressive but I think the handicapper could easily overreact and I'd treat the bare 23 lengths with some caution as the rest of the field appeared not to hack the strong pace for reasons of fitness or it just being a messy race. Fair play to FNS, I suspect today was D-Day for him and they could have blown the mark but in reality this performance just shows what one can come to expect (or needs to look for) in second season improving chasers. If you think this was good (and it was to be fair) then you have to consider perhaps what Grand Crus can do from his own mark. Cue Card gave FNS 7lbs and a 4 length beating but couldn't live with Grand Crus (maybe that's not fair), and through collateral form with Bobs Worth still wouldn't be up to matching GC. Tizzard's ducking the PPGC for Cue Card. There are some challengers out there for sure, I just wonder how the Pipe yard see today's performance. If Grand Crus truly is the best David's ever trained then they'll be excited, I don't for one minute think they'll be scared in the slightest. What we saw today was good training from Nick Williams, great jockeyship from Noel Fehilly and a second season improver primed from a mark which understates his true ability. I think Grand Crus is going to do something realitively similar come the 17th November. Move in the market for FNS could be over done ... |
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The other thing is, with the likely highly rated turnout this year's renewal is going to be a classic one I think ...
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best patrick power for sometime me thinks
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FNS will now be a grade 2 horse with a grade 1 rating, this is where the ratings can be madness because he beat horses that were not fit or didn't run their races, stagecoach pearl ran most of them into te ground ffs!!!will they all get dropped, no of course not, but williams has blown his chance of winning the PP today all the same, no-one in their right mind can take that race today at face value.
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Funny you say that howdi I think its the worst in ages.
 especially if grand crus doesnt run. |
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Eboue what makes you think Grand Crus won't run or are you just suggesting it's a possibility of course ... ?
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Purely my opinion mate. I love Grands Crus but I think the King george is the big one for him this year. I think Team Pipe might go for a smaller field race first time out..
Shame Great endeavour isnt around this year  Him winning last year was my last decent winner |
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Menorah surely wont run here
Neither Champion court if you believe the trainer Bolster and Silvinaco conti wont run The race looks incredibly weak to me. I know I've just said Grand crus might not run but this race is going to cut up badly..... God knows whats going to happen |
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Entries out on Tuesday...
I reckon FNS will go up to about 165 after today which will put him somewhere near top weight if he runs in the PP - so he probably won't win it. As someone has pointed out on the Cheltenham board, he also does seem to like Cheltenham as much as flat tracks. His race today was exciting for me because it suggests what a good bunch last years novices might be. FNS was nowhere near the best and blitzed some decent horses today. |
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That was a good performance today, to pull away from a decent field in effortless fashion like that. Surprised the commentators weren't more effusive with their praise. Had that been Sprinter Sacre there would have been no end to the superlatives flying around.
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^^ *doesn't seem to like Cheltenham as much as flat tracks.
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Mr Eboue
27 Oct 12 19:03 Joined: 15 Sep 09 | Topic/replies: 19,335 | Blogger: Mr Eboue's blog Funny you say that howdi I think its the worst in ages. especially if grand crus doesnt run. HE WILL RUN )NAP) MONEY POIURING IN GAMBLE OF THE SEASON COMING IN. |
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joci - you make a very good point about the reaction. People have said similar things about Sanctuaire.
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and tataniano...and mon parrain after their "wow" performances...but we shouldn't ave believed them either, should we.
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OK Duffy, I get that you don't think much of FNS or today's form, and you might be right. But you might not. Today was a much stronger race than Mon Parrain's for example (although I admit I was taken in by that visually very striking performance).
FNS has won one grade 1, one grade 2 and got within a neck of another G1 - it's possible he's a decent horse. |
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stront, I wasn't making a reference to you with my mon parrain comment, i wasn't aware of that at all, sorry if you thought so..(genuinely), i'm just pointing out that imo everything has fallen into place to elevate fns's performance into a better one than it actually was, beating horses not at it etc, etc, and we're at risk of over-doing it, in much the same way as many of us (me included) have in the past with other flash performances.
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his 2nd run will answer a few questions remaining
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No problem, i didn't think you meant it personally at all (and hadn't taken it as such).
You might be right about FNS - time will tell, but it was superficially impressive today. For me, it's most encouraging with respect to the second season chasers (especially when we consider that Sprinter and Al Ferof also ran well in open company last season). |
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no-probs, agree howdi, his 2nd run of the season now becomes fascinating, i just can't have him as a 165 horse...it's just not right
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If FNS was to produce a performance like that in january, the handicapper would most likely push him up to 170+, but you have to question the race fitness of the other runners.
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I'm sure he will go up about a stone to 165 - he's beaten a 165 rated horse 20+ lengths in receipt of weight and a 150 rated horse 30+ lengths off close to levels. It will be a very tough race to rate accurately, but the handicapper doesn't like to look a fool (and imo tends to over, rather than under, react).
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Looked great 2day, i'd be surprised if he won a PP off his revised mark though, ive got him on 168 and i dont think that's superficially inflated. It's fair to assume the 2nd and 3rd ran to their marks and the 4th has excellent form over the course and distance in a previous incarnation.
Wow, that's certainly got the blood pumping ahead of the weights on Tuesday. |
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I don't know. I don't know.
It was definitely mightily impressive. Has improved for sure but that much? Whatever way I look at it I just can't come up with a strong opinion as to if he was flattered. It's quite possible that he wasn't and has just improved massively, if so then he is Gold Cup class for sure if kept in this form. He is bred to stay and settles very well. I see no reason whatsoever why he wouldn't at least get 3 miles. If I owned him I would be going straight to Kempton. Why not? He is going to be mid 160's now, doesn't leave many options. I would bite the bullet and go straight to Kempton. I mean, if the 2nd & 3rd have ran to their marks or close then it was a 170 performance and he is an absolute top notcher. But of course it's also possible that none of them ran to their marks and he was fit and has improved 10 pounds or so but will now go up too much and might never win again. No one knows until he runs again. As for the PP? I dunno. I backed him today at 11/2 and wouldn't take a similar price in the PP. It's like Countrywide Flame in the Ces, he was 11/4 to win his 9 runner, weak prep race (when possibly needing a penalty) but only 7/1 for the 34 runner maze that is the Ces itself. If you missed the party you missed it. No point in sticking around!I would prefer Grand Crus in PP as we know for certain he is 160+ class and a few pounds well-in. If they put a claimer up he might just be too good. And don't worry. Grand Crus will run alright... as sure as night follows day. The Pipes don't really do prep runs either, it's this, then Kempton, then March. When they have a good one it is always ready. As fit in October as in March. That's what the Pipes are all about. Remember? |
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Gamerawins - you are 100% correct about the Pipe's of that we can be sure.
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For Non Stop is a horse I've always liked. Although he's run well at Cheltenham I'd agree with whoever suggested he's not at his best there. As far as the Gold Cup is concerned I don't think he'd stay the trip in a taxi. If he were mine the long term target would be the Melling Chase.
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Grand Crus has been matched for a quid at 3/1 on here I see.
More money for him today. Interesting snippet below from Tom Scudamore. Pipe had a good double at Aintree today, that Broadway Buffalo looks the real deal and did it very well under a penalty in tough ground, not dissimilar to the McCain horse who looked RAMPANT. Anyway, the below interesting for anyone who thinks they might put up a claimer. Josh Apiafi said on Twitter that Tom Scudamore would NEVER give up the ride on Grand Crus. Apparently he hasn't schooled him yet. Now of course schooling carries a risk so I can see why they may not have, I just would love to know the likely order of DEP's typical prep for a race like this, when you start schooling him, do you loose school first and then pop him over a few at home, is there any racecourse gallop etc. etc. I know PFN pops loads and loads and loads before a big target race - it is a little known fact horses only use those jumping muscles and musculature for jumping fences, absolutely nothing else - for this reason schooling is vital preparation not just for getting the eye in but for building the muscle memory and conditioning of the muscles themselves. Anyway here it is - News Sport Forums What's On Deals Pictures Notices Jobs Motors Homes Restaurants Shopping Places Services Business Dating Classifieds Holidays Place an Ad Switch Credit Cards Competitions Tom Scudamore: Pelvic injury is another tough break for unlucky but resilient Popham Thursday, October 25, 2012Western Morning NewsFollow It was very tough on Ian Popham to break his pelvis again on Monday, and he was devastated when he was told the news. I had travelled to the Plumpton meeting with him and a couple of other jockeys, and we stopped off at Brighton on the way back to check he was all right and to wait with him until his parents arrived. Mattie Batchelor put his parents up for the night – it is great how every one rallies around. It is desperate for Ian to do it again, but he is a strong lad and hopefully he will come back again. The really good horses are coming out now and there are three I'm particularly impressed with – The New One and Village Vic, who were first and second in the Neptune Investments Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday, and Jeremy Scott's Empiracle, who was stunning in a bumper at Huntingdon last week. Fingers crossed he has made a good sale there! I have done a lot of schooling at David Pipe's recently, although I haven't sat on Grands Crus yet. It was great to see him at Kempton on Sunday. He is looking very well. David hasn't made a decision yet about whether he will go for the Betfair or the Paddy Power, and he will make the best decision for him. I will school him, but other than that I will not ride him as I think he prefers Gerry [Supple] riding him anyway. David has made a lot of entries and Gevrey Chambertin will be running at the weekend – either Wincanton or Aintree – but again his decision will be what is best for the horse and I will not know until Friday. I have been very impressed with him at home, anyway. It was nice to ride a winner for Warren Greatrex yesterday at Worcester. He is a great family friend and his wife Tessa is our daughter Margot's godmother and my wife Lottie is godmother to one of their children. It was really good to be riding at Exeter again on Tuesday where, as usual, the fences rode very well. The course's next big meeting is on November 6 – that is always a great day at the races. I won the sportingbet Haldon Gold Cup in 2007 on Pablo Du Charmil, and there were five in the race including the brilliant little horse Fair Along. Not that I saw him as we made all the running. It is a significant win for any jockey, and it is great to have it under my belt, as the race is seen as the first big test over two miles. Some very famous names have won the race – Best Mate, Sabin Du Loir and Viking Flagship. It is also fantastic that it is now part of the "Road To Cheltenham" series, and a stepping stone to the sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival. It all adds to the excitement and underlines the significance each racecourse plays in the build-up to the Festival. Exeter on Gold Cup day really is a great tradition among Westcountry racegoers. Exeter Racecourse's richest race day is on November 6, when the feature race is the prestigious sportingbet Haldon Gold Cup. Tickets are available from £13 by booking on line at www.exeter-racecourse.co.uk or by calling 08445 793005. |
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Long Run beaten off 158 in this two years ago two months before winning King George - Wishfull Thinking beaten 32 lengths off 164 last year.
Of course, Pipe won with Great Endeavour (RIP) last year but he was off 147. I've no firm opinion on race yet and you have to respect chances of FNS and Grands Crus but surely there are likely to be one or two unexposed lurkers lower in the handicap? Will wait for entries but would n't want to be backing GC at 3/1 personally. |
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3/1 is a tight price now I will readily admit that. I am on at 6/1 and topped up a bit of 9/2 tonight - average out at 5.75/1 and I'm happy with that tbh. FFS he mightn't even run !!!! Ahhhhhhhhh! Fingers crossed - made enough on the beast who is Broadway Buffalo today anyway.
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Has anyone seen the entries for this race, as I cannot find
any anywhere, nothing at all for November 17th on Racing Post site? |
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A few years ago we had a list of entries about 6 weeks or more
before the date of race. This present administration fiddle with the system and it is NOT better, it is WORSE!!!!!!!! |
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Entries are out tomorrow I believe bazzar.
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Thanks HOWDI.
About time, less than 3 weeks before the race. |
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^^^ It's not my fault
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