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Paddy Power Gold Cup - Nov 17th Cheltenham.
Paddy Power Gold Cup - Nov 17th Cheltenham.
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Great to read so much conversation but why not wait until the entry list is published. Guessing is pointelss. 50% of the horses in the bookmakers ante post lists wont even be entered come 31/10.
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some interesting views but nobody has mentioned the winner i think this will hose up in my opinion
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Ok, Abbot why don't you think Grand Crus is a runner ?
Boy Wonder - What's the choice then ? |
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that will wait until early november i wont bet until nr no bet but i've been in this game a long time ignore the obvious and put the time in and you will find the value they wont all win but i really fancy this
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Just a personal opinion. My view is the horse would benefit more from running in the Charlie Hall against some decent yard sticks than getting stuck in the hustle and bustle of the PP. I just cant see any reason for them to o that route
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Well as an owner or trainer which race would you rather win?
This perhaps unfair but I see the Charlie Hall as a decent race for seasoned chasers or those perhaps just below top level that may be being given a Gold Cup campaign. I don't see that as the route for Grand Crus this season. |
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David Pipe has yet to make a final decision on where stable star Grands Crus will start off his season.
The top-class staying hurdler made a brilliant start to his career over fences last term, winning at Cheltenham, Newbury and in the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton. He disappointed when a hot favourite for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but has pleased his trainer since returning from his summer break and a decision on his likely starting point is not far away. The talented grey, who carries the colours of Roger Stanley and Yvonne Reynolds, is ante-post favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month. Pipe said: "He's in good order and I'm pleased with where he is at the moment. I'm not sure yet where he's going to start off. I'll have a chat with the owners very shortly and we'll go from there. "There are a few options and the races he can run in are fairly obvious, including the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase at Haydock. I need to discuss things with the owners before making a decision." Aiming to follow in Grands Crus' hoofprints this term will be Dynaste, another with form at the highest level in staying hurdles, who will embark on a career over fences in the near future. "He's in good order and he'll be going novice chasing at some point," said Pipe. "If it keeps raining, he could be out before too long. He's not far away as long as he continues to do things as he is at the moment." |
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great to see some others who like Notus De La Tour. He was one of my main fancies for the Festival last year. I put him up on my blog on the 8th March at 20/1 (http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/festival-ante-post-selection_08.html) and he went off at 8/1. Connections clearly fancied him and while Pipe said that Salut Flo was his best chance of the week, it is not beyond the realms of possibility to think that he could have had a one-two in the race.
Notus is rated 144 and there is plenty of scope there in my opinion. Looking at the market leaders, they are all around the 157 mark and one would expect to see them raised 10lbs if they won. Therefore, can one see the likes of Hunt Ball, Grand Crus and Cue Card improving 10 lbs? I can, particularly Hunt Ball. But given what weight Notus will carry in the Paddy Power if the aforementioned horses held their ground you have to say that he has a chance. 25/1 looks tasty He may be a cut below the best handicappers but he will have his day at some point this season. This could be the day! Looking at the others I'd say that Roudoudou Ville deserves a mention |
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Nice post thanks, Rodoudouville isn't likely to make it, Dartnall on record saying he'll be back early next year. Big shame as I'd have him as a very likely candidate.
Given Paul Nicholls is apparently targeting Tataniano at this race I would make him topweight off of 164 with Grand Crus in off of 157 mid to high up the handicap. Given the 26lbs range of the field last year it is very feasible Notus could get in here off 144. Peter Deal will be all over it of course and 25/1 could be a decent each way bet indeed, I'd agree. Probably get his ground with a bit of cut too. Dartnall has Henry Hook and Ace High out tomorrow and Chepstow on Saturday so could be a decent collateral guide to the health of his runners, ditto Twister who has a few out (and is in typically good early season form). On that note I read in the FT today Raymond Mould recently netted another £97m cash from the sale of the Sheffield shopping centre - nice work if you can get it, perhaps he can get a chaser to run for him this season, he's had some good 'uns and now has the dosh to go shopping with - Bromley give Raymond a bell, Twister could do with the fees no doubt. |
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I'm glad I wasn't going mad, after all. There is hope for me yet
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Pipe confirmed today that Grand Crus will be entered in both the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase (via twitter).
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Just about recovered from the ORFEVRE shock/pain and ready to get back on the horse.
BILLIE MAGERN for this anyone ? |
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More Money for GRAND CRUS today and now cut to 5's with a couple of bookies on Oddschecker.com I see - could this be the 'all aboard' you need ?? #plunge
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Was given in the RP which caused it to be cut - nought from Pipe
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Yes - I'm a Billie Magern fan. Well handicapped on previous form, consistent performer, stable knows how to win the race and could sneak it from the front with Willie claiming as well. That said NTD has no end of similar types who could be targeted at it. Wouldn't suprise me if Billie is targeted at the race he won last year next weekend, and swerves this all together.
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Billie is decent before xmas but I think he prefers small fields
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Cash for Grand Crus today ? 5's into 4's in places I see ...
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Cash for Grand Crus today ? 5's into 4's in places I see ...
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Cash for Grand Crus today ? 5's into 4's in places I see ...
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If Billie Magern wins a Paddy Power, i will be broke ! For Non Stop strikes as a player here, honestly corporal ! Adding WTD to the equation only lessens the case
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Liam - just put up £5 on here for you to lay at 100s. Given your 1-2 performance yesterday should be free money for you
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Before the plunge remember wishful thinking at 3-01 last year never got a blow in.
Neither did Long Run the year before. |
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I love Grand Crus, think he could turn into a top class chaser. Think the PP trip is perfect for him. I was at Kempton for the Feltham and his mid race speed was the real difference.
Much was made of his second to Big Bucks and obviously the big debate last season was Gold Cup or RSA. I'll accept he didn't run his race in the RSA but regardless, at the moment I don't see staying as his biggest quality. Despite the above, I'd have to agree that I simply couldn't touch him at the price. Yes he could turn out to be well ahead of his mark, I'd like to think he is, but there could easily be a less talented horse with as much improvement in them. Plus it wouldn't be the first time that there has been money for one, only for another in the stable to be the one they really fancy. 5/1 would be a day of race price for me though I accept it looks highly likely if he turns up, I'll get nothing as generous. So good luck to those who have played. At this stage if forced to have a bet, then NDLT at 25s is a decent shout. |
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So after today, where I had Nadiya in a double with Cityscape (and hedged out to recoup losses on Rebel du Maquis) I am flat and what are my observations ?
Hendo has resumed 'normal service'. The one I always liked last season but who never really fired was SOLIX. He could be a massive price for this. I would suggest Buckley has hired Yogi to get to work on his jumping as a possible development - can anyone confirm/deny this ? After the form of the yard was flagged up with Nadiya de la Vega's smooth victory I think we have to respect anything Nicky turns out for this race. What are his other likely hopes ? |
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im pretty sure i read that Solix and afew others were sold a while ago
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This could well be why Solix didn't feature in the Mark Howard 2012/2013 book ...
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Now with Ian Williams if i remember rightly - was sold at the sales last May
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Now with Ian Williams if i remember rightly - was sold at the sales last May
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Buckley dispersal proves popular at Spring Sales
Leading owner Michael Buckley offered a dispersal of nine horses, many with high class form, and Solix proved to be the pick of the bunch when selling to Ian Williams for £90,000. The six year old son of Al Namix was already a Grade 3 winner over hurdles and was placed in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Cheltenham earlier this year. All of the horses were offered without reserve and he attracted an opening bid of £50,000 from Anthony Bromley of Highflyer Bloodstock and after this bold move caused some buyers to revalue the horse, Ian Williams came in to make a bid and the two purchasers were left to fight out before Williams had the final say. |
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Very interesting many thanks for that BJG.
David Pipe on Racing UK at Kempton with Grand Crus owner Roger Stanley a moment ago. Says Grand Crus is back and as keen as ever, tanking up the gallops yet laid back in the box. He paraded well at Kempton, DEP just nervous to get him home now. Looks like a prep to the track indeed. He said that the Paddy Power and the Betfair Haydock Chase are just a week apart and that Grand Crus would tell them which race to go for (perhaps he's also watching the entries ;)). Roger Stanley stated that 'if' David thinks Grand Crus is well handicapped then the Paddy Power would be the easier race to go for. My reading on this - it's the Paddy Power first. This gives them a chance to get the freshness out of him, win a race whilst his mark is still low as it can be, and then have 6 weeks (as opposed to 5)to get him ready for the King George. Paddy Power is the race they'll go for in my view. They also stated he'll have no problem getting 3 miles around Kempton and that all roads for Grand Crus lead to Kempton on Boxing Day. |
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Leading Paddy Power Gold Cup fancy Cue Card is highly unlikely to line up in next month's prestigious Cheltenham event.
Last season's Arkle runner-up is third in the betting at 8-1 with the race sponsors, but trainer Colin Tizzard is not keen on letting his stable star make his seasonal reappearance in such a fiercely competitive handicap. The six-year-old is likely to return somewhere next weej, with Tizzard weighing up three options. The trainer said: "He'll start off somewhere in the first week of November, but we're not sure where at the moment. "We're just concentrating on getting him really fit and we'll make a decision about which way we're going by the end of the week. "The three options are the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, a graduation chase at Kempton or the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. "I don't think it makes much difference which horses are running in which races. Sprinter Sacre won't be running in any of them and I don't think there is anything we're going to run away from. "I don't fancy the Paddy Power at all. It's a 20-runner handicap and he might have top-weight. I'm not sure that would be the best thing to do for the horse with the next five years in mind." |
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good work shockster v helpful.
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Hardly original thinking but Grand Crus over a trip short of 3 miles is surely the way forward.
He'll never make a Gold Cup horse. |
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21/10/12 Kempton Park – “The Paddy Power is the easier race but whether or not he runs in it depends on if David thinks he’s got a good handicap mark” – Roger Stanley owner Grand Crus
23/10/12 Racing Post Stable Tours – “I’d like to think that off a mark of 157 is he well handicapped” – David Pipe, Trainer Grand Crus I think you can call the remaining 5/1 a little bit of value. |
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Prices on 1 or 2 runners have dropped considerably in the last 24 hours. Anyone pick up any news on the likely participation of The Giant Bolster, Cristal Bonus or Roudoudou Ville?
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I am no expert but last 8 winners have all be OR
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I am no expert but last 8 winners have all be OR
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As will now be very obvious to you all, I am no expert but last 8 winners have all be OR
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wtf. sorry guys. will come back later.
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I am no expert but last 8 winners have all be OR less than 150 so dont we need to be looking for 2nd season chasers who have escaped the eye of the handicapper. Walkon ?
JUst learned that if you use sign for less than it cuts your message at that point. You will now work out my problems below.  |