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2,000 Guineas (2013)

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Replies: 322
By:
cryoftruth
When: 23 Sep 12 20:12
I like Masterminded's paddock comments - Ill will watch out for Moohajim to see if he will stay. As Masterminded notes he is certainly bred to get a mile and probably 10 furlongs so it would be a major shock if he turned out not to get the trip. Of course there are exceptions, but if they are bred to stay they usually (but not always) do.
By:
Masterminded
When: 23 Sep 12 22:14
He just looked a lot different than I thought he would. I couldn't really believe he was by Cape Cross but its a funny old game when so many different genes are mixed. Don't underestimate Montiridge I think they rate him pretty highly at Hannons. Has been ill for a while and was using Sandown as a prep for a possible tilt at the Royal Lodge. I also should have mentioned Ashdan really like him for next season too. I guess they will be sorting themselves out in the next week or two with some more big 2yo races at Newmarket and then Longchamp.
By:
roobuck
When: 10 Oct 12 22:06
Looking forward to this weekend's races.

DA clearly the form pick for the Dewhurst, but I think the race could be a lot closer than anticipated. 8/1 is a cracking price for the Gosden horse in that.

Hoping there is no real significant rain before Saturday so ground doesn't become an issue for Moohaajim and so he can confirm the impression he made in the Mill Reef.

Olympic Glory also ran a very solid race in France on Sunday - at the moment the 2000 is looking a much better race than the 1000
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 Oct 12 14:37
Can't see the Middle Park principals making much impact on the 2,000 Guineas - Moohajim may be a very good fast ground a sprinter though.
By:
Masterminded
When: 13 Oct 12 19:28
Think Dawn Approach has to be the most likely winner by a fair way at this stage. Every bit of top class 2yo form this season points to the Coventry and the winner. He's overpriced at 5/1 for me as I think we have seen any likely dangers to him. It's not like he's bred to be a 2yo either I only think he will improve when stepped up to a mile or 10f. Who knows maybe he could even line up in the Derby. The horse who's got closest to him Olympic Glory is likely to head to France for their Guineas according to the trainer after his last win. Cristoforo Columbo looked outpaced from the gate in todays Middle Park but I'm doubtful he will make up any ground on Dawn Approach. The winner & the 2nd look like sprinters to me.

I was very pleased with Montiridge a horse I put up earlier in the thread who came 2nd to Trading Leather. He was too keen but traveled like the best horse, got a pretty hefty knock and was unbalanced in the final stages. The winner Trading Leather battled and stayed on very well and was a good winner of the race. I thought some of the horses in the line up for the Autumn stakes wouldn't have been out of place in the Dewhurst and the race probably benefited from Dawn Approach scaring them off.

Toronado seems to be out of the picture a bit as he's been withdrawn from the RP Trophy which was surprising. I'm guessing he's either been put away for the season or possibly picked up a little injury.

Worth noting I guess that Morpheus a half brother to Frankel will be making his debut soon likely to be this week at Nottingham. Bred to do the job by Oasis Dream. Great name as well which links nicely to his sire.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Oct 12 21:57
Morpheus is not The One, Dawn Approach is.

He had only just got revved up at the finish, lots in hand, didnt have a hard race. Hannon's dont have the pace of this one, most look mile and a quarter horses can see the French Derby coming their way.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 Oct 12 09:06
Amazed 5/1 is still available - 5/2 looks much more realistic.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Oct 12 10:12
Dawn Approach clearly has the best form and naturally deserves to be favourite. It is to the horse's credit that he is unbeaten after 6 runs, one of which was on the first day of the season.

I may well be in a minority of one here, though he could do no more than win, his last two races have been absolutely dire in terms of Group 1s. To my eye he look laboured yesterday though I am more than prepared to accept that given it is the end of a long season for a young horse. However, whilst I thought Ashdan might be a decent animal pre-race ( he may turn out to be next year ), he was incredibly disappointing and I'd be surprised if any of the rest of field turned out to be Group 1 class.

Considering the above I don't think he did anything to really justify a drastic shortening in odds....I couldn't have 5/2 as a realistic price.

Of Hannon's I would say that Olympic Glory would be the one, and would suggest he doesn't want to go too much further than a mile. I agree that one of my pick's Toronado does appear to want a trip but was pleased to see him swerve the RP Trophy and perhaps his first run on the season will be the Guineas.

I though Moohaajim traveled really well in the Middle Park. It may the ground that prevented him picking up though I noted MM's paddock comments at Newbury and accept he looked more like a sprinter. I think he will be given a Guineas prep and granted quick ground he's still not the worst pick at 25s.

If not already having had a bet, I would take OG at 20s as the value at the moment
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 12:54
I agree Roo. DA is class, we saw that at Ascot, but his last two wins have been Group 1's in name only. If anything, the Coventry Stakes, officially a Group 2, was more like a Group 1.

Anyway, 5/1 looks right to me. No meat on the bone there.

Worth noting that DA's sire New Approach was beaten in TWO Guineas of officially Good to Firm ground. I remember Jim Bolger moaning explicitly after Newmarket about how quick the ground was. All of DA's wins have been on going with juice in it. I'm not sure he wants it rattling quick,just like his sire, and his sire's sire!!
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 Oct 12 13:02
Moohajim didn't travel as well as in the Mill Reef, but came back on the bridle at halfway and looked to have the winners measure going down the dip but it soon became clear he was never going to get past and another furlong would have seen him beaten a couple of lengths into 3rd - imho.

Think he can still be a high class fast ground 6f sprinter next season but have effectively torn up my antepost 2,000 Guineas ticket.

The 5/2 on Dawn Approach is more to do with the dearth of credible rivals than him being a superstar, even Olympic Glory may be aimed at France instead so can't really be backed.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 13:10
Reckless Abandon is very high class sprinter though Uncle. Had it been GF ground yesterday Moohajim may have won? Being by Cape Cross a mile should be fine for him next season imo.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Oct 12 13:11
Interesting uncle, what makes you think he may go to France? Has there been a quote or something else you've read?

Isn't his new owner part of the dynasty that sponsor the Champions series? I would have thought that would make our Guineas most likely.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 13:34
If you could guarantee GF ground next may then i'd have a decent wedge on Moohajim tbh. At least he is a Group 2 winner and now has Group 1 form next to a high class sprinter. The new owners paid a lot for Reckless Abandon. Marco Botti is a very good young trainer. He knows when he has a good horse.

The Mill Reef Stakes winner almost clinched Group One glory on Future Champions Day at Newmarket, going down by just a neck to Reckless Abandon.

Although he has yet to race beyond six furlongs, Botti is confident a mile is within Moohaajim's range and he could return in next April's Greenham Stakes at Newbury before his tilt at Classic glory in May.

    Profiles

    M Botti
    Moohaajim (IRE)

Botti said: "He has come out of the race in good order and we are happy with him this morning.

"Of course when you are beaten a neck you wish it was the other way round, but he ran a very good race, so we can't be too disappointed.

"We were worried about the ground before the race. It was very testing and holding ground and he is a horse with a low action, so I'm sure he would prefer faster ground.

"We discussed things with the owner after the race and we decided we'll give him a break and next year, we'll see what happens.

"The way he ran suggested he is ready to step up to seven furlongs and I'm sure he will get the mile.

"We will train him for the Guineas and as he doesn't have a penalty, he could have a run beforehand. Something like the Greenham Stakes at Newbury might be a possible race to run him in."
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 13:37
Botti ran Excelebration in the Greenham before deciding to avoid Frankel at Newmarket (they both ran in the Greenham remember) and plundered the German Guineas instead. He is very clever.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Oct 12 13:49
Agreed sint, he'll know how good he is having had Excelebration.

The Coventry was the single best piece of 2yo form but no 2yo has made a bigger visual impression on me than the Mooj ( going to fed up doing his full name each timeGrin). We are all different and see things differently but you have to follow your own instinct.

OK so he might be a bit too ground dependent, he may end up a sprinter, but I am surprised you can still back him at 25s. I'd much sooner have that than 5s DA and a once raced Dundalk maiden winner is best priced 16s ffs. Surely this is a case of the trainer being underestimated. Perhaps he was being disloyal, but Kirby got off RA for a reason

uncle please don't tear up your ticket.....I'll look after it for you if you don't want it
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 14:53
I have just actually now backed him Roo. 25/1 is very fair for a lightly raced horse with top stakes form. Out of the two, Reckless Abandon is far more likely to end up being the sprinter, hence why they rush him out of the gates and use his speed. Finishing 2nd to him might look very good form 6 months from now.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Oct 12 14:59
Cool
By:
Come On Hardy
When: 14 Oct 12 16:35
Whats peoples thoughts on Cristoforo Columbo? I think his run yesterday was decent considering his lay off. Also he has been campaigned like AOB's best guineas horse, coventry (not to far behind DA), phoenix stakes and was jocked up as the stables no. 1 in the national stakes before withdrawing. If the guineas has firm in the description and with the step up to a mile looking like it will suit i think he can still be a big player, hes def better than what weve seen so far im sure of it.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 12 16:39
I was disappointed with his run intially but as someone has mentioned already he was badly outpaced early on yesterday and then stayed on to be 4th. Step up to a mile looks suitable and he still has not had quick ground yet. His Coventry form would give him a big shout.
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Oct 12 17:34
Agree about CC on the ground. Plus I cannot help thinking it would have done his confidence a power of good after his fall last time - it would be no surprise if that was on his mind
By:
bosra shame
When: 16 Oct 12 16:21
Christoforo Columbo would interest me after his eye catching run on Sunday - but his necessity for fast ground makes him a no net from an ante post point of view.
Plus, being a half brother to Crusade would worry me about stamina if the ground wasn't on the quick side. But his form stands up with the best of them, was doing all his best work up the hill in the Middle Park and is one to keep in mind with a mild Spring
By:
n6
When: 16 Oct 12 18:55
roobuck...'kirby got off ra for a reason'...was that reason because he was wrong?

I can see I am in a minority of one on here but I think R.A. is being massively underestimated, he's 5 out of 5 and 3 of those races were top class and he's still 20s.

Now thats cus all the 'experts' think he won't stay....probably the same ones that were backing Moohajim in running on Saturday a furlong out :-)))

I think he may prove a few wrong next season and at the odfds is worth a punt.

ps I also think Usain Bolt would have won the Olympic 400m final if he'd trained for that event!!
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Oct 12 19:27
n6 of course he could be. I have no doubt that RA is a top class colt, you cannot argue against what he has achieved. The only point I was making is that Mooj must have given him a very good feeling to get off a dual Group 1 winner. Maybe RA will be one that always finds when it matters.

I'd agree that his price is also great value if you think he'll stay. Its all about opinions. Mine is that on quicker ground Mooj would have one, but it wasn't and RA won fair and square.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Oct 12 12:26
Im not underestimating RA N6. My whole bet is built around him/his formlines. I think he is a top,top class sprinter. Mooj getting beat a neck by him, when RA had proven Soft ground form, is a belting effort. Then you look at how the two horses are bred and 25/1 for Mooj looks a great bet (to me anyway!)
By:
cryoftruth
When: 17 Oct 12 21:49
i think MJH is a bit long at 25's. Of course he may not stay but he is just about bred for it and the trainer says he will.

The Guineas is definitely open to a big improver at 3. Dawn Approach is very good but no superstar.
Olympic Glory - ditto.

Cristoforo has a case to be up there with the other 2 on Coventry form and his other (relative) flops may be about the soft ground he has had to run on. He may be a bit of value at current odds, especially if anything happened to Dawn Approach or Olympic Glory, both of whom seemed just a bit better in the Coventry. There is a slight doubt about CC getting a mile especially well though.
By:
n6
When: 17 Oct 12 22:37
I actually think RA will turn out to be a sprinter but still think 20s is good value...what I don't know is whether Cox can do the right work with him over the winter to find that bit of stamina.

I know its not directly comparable but if Bolt did a winter of 400m training he'd beat Michael Johnson's 400m world record. Whether Cox can get RA to stay an extra 400m I don't know??????

I also agree Mooj is a cracking e/w bet at 25s
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 12 15:53
I agree with what others have said about Moohaajim and I certainly wouldn't be writing him off. Of this year's 2yos I actually have him joint top rated with Dawn Approach, albeit, his rating is obviously based on the shorter distance and his stamina is less certain than with DA. I thought his Mill Reef victory was as good as any of DA's wins and I'm sure he was a bit below his best in the Middle Park. Maybe, as has been suggested, it was due to the ground, although personally I didn't rate the ground much worse than good for the earlier races on the card, even allowing for the tail wind. I think he probably just peaked in the Mill Reef, it was run in a good time and he hadn't entirely recovered from the effort.

While neither he or DA look like world beaters, any of them need only to improve a few pounds to take an average Guineas (of course Moojaahim still has to prove his stamina) and they look some way ahead of the others at this stage.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 12 15:54
Or even Moohaajim
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Oct 12 16:07
Pleasing.

Cool
By:
jair1970
When: 23 Oct 12 01:04
O'Brien's 2yos have been a mess by his standards.

Cristoforo Colombo?  If he's their Guineas horse what the hell is he running in the Middle Park for?

Mars and The United States gone AWOL.

Jim and Sheikh Mo teaming up to great effect.

Fked right off i'd imagine!
By:
taffy
When: 05 Feb 13 11:55
I read on the Richard Hannon website that Toronado is their big Derby hope.
Does anyone know if they are still going for the 2,000 Guineas en route?
By:
roobuck
When: 06 Feb 13 07:19
They said last year that likely to be his first race this season and there is no better Derby trial.
By:
taffy
When: 08 Feb 13 15:59
Thanks roe
Hannon has an excellent in the Guineas while I dont remember too many Dante runners.
By:
BJG
When: 27 Feb 13 09:38
.
By:
taffy
When: 28 Feb 13 09:02
R Hannon Website 28.2.13

Hannon also revealed that the high-profile three-year-olds are all progressing well – "Toronado, Olympic Glory, Havana Gold,  Wentworth, Van de Neer and co; the weather held us up a bit, but they are where we want them at this time of the year" – so it is a case of "so far so good".
By:
DMCK
When: 28 Feb 13 21:09
thanks for the quote taffy, il have to use it to argue an opinion i hold about the weather and how it can hold up guineas types if bad winter!
By:
roobuck
When: 28 Feb 13 21:34
Thought you might - but horses are where they want them, no issue this year
By:
DMCK
When: 28 Feb 13 21:51
im not by any means saying they are not but what i am saying is that its a slight advantage and when it comes the day could be the difference between 1st and 2nd. again my own personal thought factorization.
By:
go-all-in
When: 01 Mar 13 22:05
Looks like decent money for Cristoforo Colombo today, anyone know if a tipping line has put it up or if it's stable money?

He ran in the right races last year for an AOB guineas horse (although would have preferred Dewhurst) and Ladbrokes ducking it is always a positive. Coventry form with DA doesn't leave him with much to find , do have invested a little. Reminds me a little of HenrytheSatNav.
By:
roobuck
When: 02 Mar 13 07:34
Presuming he will improve for fast ground like his sire, then he never got his ground last year. Could well be a very big threat if it is quick ground
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