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2,000 Guineas (2013)
2,000 Guineas (2013)
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Listed race at Lingfield
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cheers Roo. He looked in trouble at one stage, didn't take the bend too well, but won comfortably in the end. Post-race comments suggest their Guineas horses will all take different routes. OG to France, Toronado to Craven/Newmarket, Van Der Ner possibly to HQ or Ireland.
I have just added Dundonnel at 25/1. There are doubts/negatives as previously discussed, but when I look at his odds compared to CC's it makes him a bet imo. At least we know he is going to have a Guineas prep. He will face Moohajim in the Greenham so whichever one of those two wins will likely shorten a fair bit, if not both of them. His trainer has just tweeted that his sire had a Group2 winner over in the U.S last night over 9f. |
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Yeah fair enough sint, especially more considering his odds in comparison to Toronado - I wouldn't have them that far apart tbh over a mile.
Don't want to add any more at this stage. This year I think the trials will be quite informative especially the Greenham - isn't OG running there as well? If all 3 run I do think I will go so I can see them in the paddock as well |
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No doubt Dundonnell is an attractive price - it's just the Roger Charlton factor that puts me off.
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Mars would be my selection in this race following a similar process to that of the Epsom Derby thread based on past 10 winners and Dosage with Cristoforo Colombo a close consideration. I have eliminated hot favourite Dawn Approach based on the following:
Dawn Approach 2-4-8-2-0 (0.88) (0.13) BIC 14 TOTAL 16(BIC based on the totals just for Brilliant, Intermediate and Classic) - None of the last 10 winners had a DI as low as 0.88 (0.94 Frankel and Camelot) - only 1 of the last 10 winners had scored as low as 2 Brilliant points (Makfi) - only 3 of the last 10 winners had scored as low as 8 Classic points (7/10 in the range 10-29, 6/10 15+) Mars and Cristoforo Colombo have better Dosage profiles and are trained by AOB who has 5 wins from the last 11 races, Jim Bolger (Dawn Approach) has none from the last 20 Mars : 5-2-13-4-0 (1.29)(0.33) BIC 20 TOT 24 CC : 7-3-12-6-0 (1.33)(0.39) BIC 22 TOT 28 The dam of Cristoforo Colombo was a £35k G3 winner in the States over 6f The dam of Mars was 2nd placed in a G3 over 7f (The Nell Gwyn) So not much between them based on the Dam, but comments from the AOB team seem to show that Mars will be targetted at the classics and CC has yet to show that he can get 7f let alone a true mile and therefore the safer of the two appears to be Mars. |
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Despite my interest in Mars i'd hardly call him a 'safe' or 'safer' option!
He's a speculative punt at best. Seem to recall Jim Bolger saying that he had some kind of grading for his horses & New Approach was a miler/middle distance type, whereas Dawn Approach was more a miler, maybe stretch out to 10f. |
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Kingsbarns still in Derby picture despite setback
BY TONY O'HEHIR 5:39PM 12 APR 2013 AIDAN O'BRIEN on Friday stressed that deposed Investec Derby favourite Kingsbarns is still part of the trainer's long-range Epsom team as he announced that plans to contest the Qipco 2,000 Guineas have now been abandoned. The Racing Post Trophy winner has this week been uneasy in the Derby betting with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Newmarket maiden winner Telescope promoted to market leadership by a number of bookmakers on Friday as Kingsbarns was pushed out to as big as 6-1. The Kingsbarns drift has also coincided with sustained support for Ballydoyle stablemates Mars and Battle Of Marengo, who makes his seasonal return at Leopardstown on Sunday. O'Brien, speaking to the Racing Post on Friday night, confirmed that Kingsbarns - who last month developed a foot infection after tearing off a shoe during a routine exercise - will not be able to run at Newmarket on May 4. However, O'Brien said: "Kingsbarns is back riding out and cantering. He's also doing some swimming, and while we are playing catch up with him after his hold-up, we're hoping to have him ready to run in one of the Derby trials." Ireland's champion trainer indicated that the Guineas is also under serious consideration for Mars, who won on the all-weather at Dundalk on his only start last season and is now as short as 6-1 for the Derby. He said: "Mars is still very much in the picture for the Guineas although we haven't made a definite decision yet as to whether he will go to Newmarket or for one of the Derby trials instead. "Lines Of Battle is also in the picture for Newmarket along with George Vancouver, Cristoforo Colombo and Pedro The Great. The picture about what we will run in the Guineas should be a bit clearer in about a week's time." Very much under consideration for the Guineas are major British hopes Toronado and Dundonnell, who figure among 14 entries for Thursday's Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes. While Toronado is an intended runner for Richard Hannon - who plans to send stablemate Olympic Glory to Newbury's Greenham Stakes - the participation of Dundonnell hinges on the ground. |
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Pleased with Toronado's performance today - really looked like he can mix it at the top level at a mile. Think he'll give DA something to think about anyway
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Are you on for the Guineas Roo or the Derby?
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Just the Guineas - as per 1st page of this thread - still much prefer Mooj to win
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christforo colombo on the slide somebody layed 46
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any news yet if style vendome is coming over for this?
about 2 weeks ago they said they'd decide in the next 2 weeks  |
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I was keeping my powder dry for this race and hoping Style Vendome would come over but Nicolas Clement has posted on his website today that he will be going for the French version!
I was also impressed with Toronado yesterday and he looks solid, I think if the ground is on the quick side he will be the one to beat. I also like Moohaajim but the comments from Botti about him not growing much over the winter is off putting, the Greenham Stakes will be an interesting watch tomorrow. On the Classic trail... After his success in the Listed Prix Montenica , Style Vendôme (Anabaa) passed a further test en route to the Classic races in the Prix Djebel (Gr3), where he was taking on Snowday (Falco) and Penny’s Picnic (Kheleyf), both Group winners in their juvenile season, who were making their seasonal reappearances. Count Andre de Ganay and Christian Baillet's colt won like a good horse after sitting patiently throughout the race before putting distance between himself and his rivals in the final 100 metres. Snowday, who led the race and took second place, was Gr1 placed and won the Prix du Bois (Gr3) at two. Penny’s Picnic, who finished back in third, won at Gr3 and Gr2 level in 2012. Style Vendome, who was bought by Nicolas as a yearling at Arqana has pulled up well - he is back to his pre-race weight, looks great and seems to have taken everything in his stride. He will now head for the French Guineas, the Gr1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Longchamp on May 12th. |
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cheers mrdinos
thought the trainer would be tempted after going so close in our version last year, but i heard there's 100k more in the prize fund in france so the money is talking i guess no harm done, hadn't backed him yet |
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I thought the same Tucho, he looks a proper miler and has improved well from 2 to 3 but I did get the feeling that the French version was the number one choice. He was a lot more impressive in his trial than What A Name IMO but didn't really get much of mention. He will be the one for me in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, already got winning form on a right handed track (Chantilly) and appears to have a great racing attitude. Good ground will be ideal so crossing my fingers they don't get a lot of rain that weekend.
Nicolas Clement comment earlier this month: "But this year, the French Guineas is much more valuable, I think it is worth an extra 100,000 euro and because he is French-bred, he also qualifies for a premium. |
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It is unlikely there will be any French runners in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas next month after connections of both Style Vendome and Penny's Picnic announced that their colts will instead be aimed at the Poule d'Essai des Poulains.
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Boomshackerlacker (IRE) (PJL Racing) George Baker ............................................. 3 9 0
Correspondent (Mrs P. Good) Brian Meehan................................................................. 3 9 0 Cristoforo Colombo (USA) (Mrs John Magnier,Mr M.Tabor & Mr D.Smith) Aidan O’Brien, Ireland........................................................................................................ 3 9 0 Dawn Approach (IRE) (Godolphin) J. S. Bolger, Ireland........................................... 3 9 0 Dont Bother Me (IRE) (Mr Edric Browne) Niall Moran, Ireland ......................... 3 9 0 Flying Giant (IRE) (Champion Bloodstock Ltd) Jo Hughes ...................................... 3 9 0 Garswood (Mr D W Armstrong & Cheveley Park Stud) Richard Fahey.............. 3 9 0 George Vancouver (USA) (Mrs John Magnier,Mr M.Tabor & Mr D.Smith) Aidan O’Brien, Ireland........................................................................................................ 3 9 0 Glory Awaits (IRE) (A & A) Kevin Ryan .......................................................................... 3 9 0 Havana Gold (IRE) (Qatar Racing Limited & CSH) Richard Hannon................... 3 9 0 Kyllachy Rise (Mr Arjun Waney) Sir Henry Cecil.......................................................... 3 9 0 Leitir Mor (IRE) (Mrs J. S. Bolger) J. S. Bolger, Ireland.............................................. 3 9 0 Lines of Battle (USA) (J Allen/Mrs J Magnier/M Tabor/D Smith) Aidan O’Brien, Ireland........................................................................................................ 3 9 0 Mars (IRE) (Mr M. Tabor, D. Smith & Mrs John Magnier) Aidan O’Brien, Ireland........................................................................................................ 3 9 0 Moohaajim (IRE) (Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum) Marco Botti.. 3 9 0 Mujazif (IRE) (Mr Fawzi Abdulla Nass) Brian Meehan ............................................... 3 9 0 Olympic Glory (IRE) (HE Sh Joaan Bin Hamad Al Thani) Richard Hannon ...... 3 9 0 Penny’s Picnic (IRE) (Comte G. de Saint-Seine) D. Guillemin, France............... 3 9 0 Race And Status (IRE) (Jackie & George Smith) Andrew Balding ....................... 3 9 0 Steeler (IRE) (Godolphin) Mahmood Al Zarooni.......................................................... 3 9 0 Style Vendome (FR) (H.H. Sheikh Abdulla bin Khalifa Al Thani) N. Clement, France............................................................................................................. 3 9 0 Toronado (IRE) (HE Sh Joaan Bin Hamad Al Thani) Richard Hannon ................. 3 9 0 Unsinkable (IRE) (Penman Bond Partnership) Richard Fahey................................. 3 9 0 Van Der Neer (Mr Saeed Manana) Richard Hannon................................................... 3 9 0 |
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Toronado officially rated 121 by the BHB.
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Small field? 10/12?
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TORONADO BLOWS AWAY CRAVEN RIVALS
"The best performance of the week in any contest not just a classic trial came from the much vaunted Toronado in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes at Newmarket, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. Although a little short of numbers with just four runners, the race appeared to have plenty of quality with the minimum rating of the four being 110 but Toronado kept his unbeaten record intact with a convincing four length success from Havan Gold (110) – I have raised his mark from 114 to 121 for the performance and believe there is more to come. To my eyes he was having a bit of "a look around" at points in the closing stages and I hope that this good looking son of High Chaparral will continue onwards and upwards from here. A reproduction of his 121 would have seen him finish at least second in the last 10 2,000 Guineas, whilst it would have been good enough to win six of them – however, he still remains 3lb shy of last season's Champion 2yo Dawn Approach (124) and the prospect of the two of them doing battle a week on Saturday at Newmarket is mouth-watering to say the least". Interesting that the handicapper thinks he would win 6/10 Guineas |
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I like a man willing to stick his neck out about the ability of a horse before the crowd latches on, but, in my view, that is a wild conclusion to draw from that Craven form, I can see much re-evaluating in the coming weeks.
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Does Dawn Approach rely on horses coming back to him as he himself stays on well, because one thing is for sure Toronado will be ahead of him up with the pace and we know Toronado has the stamina and will see the race out very well. It will be interesting to see whether Dawn Approach will be able to pick up enough to get past Toronado.
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Jim Bolger giving latest update on Dawn Approach
http://irishhorse.tv/jim-bolger-at-beechy-park-stables-part-1/ |
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miles clear by my ratings (the fav), will be a shock if he is beaten in my eyes
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Correspondent (GB) 3 9 0 Mrs P. Good Brian Meehan
Cristoforo Colombo (USA) 3 9 0 Mrs John Magnier,Mr M.Tabor & Mr D.Smith Aidan O'Brien Dawn Approach (IRE) 3 9 0 Godolphin J. S. Bolger Dont Bother Me (IRE) 3 9 0 Mr Edric Browne Niall Moran Garswood (GB) 3 9 0 Mr D W Armstrong & Cheveley Park Stud Richard Fahey George Vancouver (USA) 3 9 0 Mrs John Magnier,Mr M.Tabor & Mr D.Smith Aidan O'Brien Glory Awaits (IRE) 3 9 0 A & A Kevin Ryan Kyllachy Rise (GB) 3 9 0 Mr Arjun Waney Sir Henry Cecil Leitir Mor (IRE) 3 9 0 Mrs J. S. Bolger J. S. Bolger Lines of Battle (USA) 3 9 0 J Allen/Mrs J Magnier/M Tabor/D Smith Aidan O'Brien Mars (IRE) 3 9 0 Mr M. Tabor, D. Smith & Mrs John Magnier Aidan O'Brien Moohaajim (IRE) 3 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum Marco Botti Toronado (IRE) 3 9 0 HE Sh Joaan Bin Hamad Al Thani Richard Hannon Van Der Neer (GB) 3 9 0 Mr Saeed Manana Richard Hannon |
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thanks BJG
still think it could be only 8 runner race. |
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Lines of Battle will have an interesting week...So he has his first taste of dirt and if he doesn't like it, the first plane back from Churchill and to Newmarket :o
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Looking back at my ratings for the last 10 years, the only Guineas Toronado would've won on that Craven showing was the Refuse to Bend one, and that would only be narrowly. As I'd missed the fancy prices for Dawn Approach I intended to sit the race out, but if he's in form I just can't see anything that can give him a real race. Mars is the only dark horse but it'll be a massive step up from his maiden win to beating DA. The only other once raced winner I can recall is Golan (who I backed) and his maiden win was much better than the form Mars has shown, also his Guineas was below average. It's just a question of whether DA has trained on or not, something I find difficult to nail a price to, but if he touches 6/4 when he's a definite runner I'll definitely be backing him.
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Will be fascinating to see what Aiden actually runs and who rides what - his runners are the only conceivable dangers to the front two imo.
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Van der Neer for me. A fast run mile on decent ground will be right up his street and should see plenty of improvement. His Racing Post Trophy run on unsuitable ground isn't all that far off the best of these, and Saturday's conditions are likely to be much more suitable.
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Lets hope Sankara. I have been backing him all winter. Still think he has a sporting chance. who will ride? I presume moore will be riding for ballydoyle?
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Buick booked for Van Der Neer. Very happy with that
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Yes that'll do. Wonder why not Peslier - perhaps he has commitments in France.
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This might be the kiss of death but
€20 double: George Vancouver 17, What A Name 6 on Betfair. When they are withdrawn I'll have a proper bet.  |
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Joseph O'Brien set for Cristoforo Colombo in Guineas, with Seamie Heffernan on Mars and Colm O'Donoghue on G Vancouver
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If anyone want to lose the will to live they can read my post about Dawn Approach's pedigree in Irish Sports / Dawn Approach Update.
He might be a monster. They run to find out. |
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Hey Kincsem, long time no see! ANy long range Derby fancies?
Anyway, Hefferman on Mars is a big 'ain't gonna win nothin' which is a shame. Soon as Ryan Moore was confimed in Kentucky I had bad vibes on that. Ah well. All in Cristoforo Columbo to do a Henrythenavigator ON FAST GROUND! |
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Possibly Dawn Approach won't be one to progress through the season, but looking at the Guineas opposition I don't believe he has to improve at all to see them off. As long as he hasn't gone backwards, like O'Brien's Maybe had last year when she was fav for the 1000.
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The opposition could improve Figgis.
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They could, Sankara, but they will need to find more improvement than Henrythenavigator had to find to narrowly beat DA's sire. Toronado and Mars aside, there doesn't look to be any on an upward curve with untapped potential, certainly not any that look like they'll stay the mile anyway.
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