Horse Antepost
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Sorely tempted by the w/o market as so much is taken up by IM. Likely to be relatively fast at Donny, surely only left in as a precaution of it going soft - Irish Derby all over again?
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Yes it looks that way. I have already backed TW and did so again in the w/o market. But I wouldn't be as confident as Donny racecourse are about the weather forecast. There is plenty of rain around the surrounding aread the next two days. It may not be forecast to hit them but it's close enough for comfort.
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Actually think that if we knew for sure that Ursa Major was coming for the English version, 33/1 e/w and 12/1 in the w/o market would be interesting. Clearly progressing and proven over the trip I think he's too big.
However may choose to stay in Ireland for what is perceived as more suitable ground. |
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TC ew in the w/o market @12s is pretty much a bet to nothing in my book
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LWHM - I think to call a St.Leger E/W shot a 'bet to nothing' is a gross exaggeration, as there are 9 colts running for three places.
Perhaps that should be 8 running for 2 places as Camelot is long odds on for the frame - Imperial Monarch's looking unlikely to run. For that reason, the E/W on Thomas Chippendale is far from 'safe' as after Camelot, it's TOO competitive. I'm not putting the boot in on TC as he's got decent credentials...he's a small winner for me too  |
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He said in the w/o market, so effectively 4 places.
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But w/o Camelot there is 8 running for 3 places
1/2 more who wont run and 1 who has no chance |
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Blimey have just seen that and Lads have Ursa Major at 16s w/o Camelot as well. Have played TC enough and would like to see a little more rain before playing any more if at all.
What I cannot understand at this stage is the price of Guarantee. OK he won the Melrose very well and in the style of a progressive horse but 4/1 in the w/o market? Don't get me wrong he could be up to it and the rest could be described as below average for a standard year but still don't think he deserves to be that short. |
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Looks like I did misinterpret what LWHM said, but it's still no gimme!
Not even for Camelot to get placed  He STILL has to get home (class doesn't always ensure so) and like with the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the likely strong pace & extra distance means that much inferior opposition are better equipped to appreciate the demands, and finish the race off more effectively. I said months ago, I'll be happy to lay Camelot for the frame (and even lower I/R as he's sure to be travelling well) though I did try those same tactics in the Derby  This will be much harder! I think the place backers of Camelot are bananas, as there are much better long odds-on shots every day! |
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If the Ground is Good or better then i'd be amazed if Camelot & Thought Worthy dont make the frame. That leaves one place.
Main Sequence is Even money on here for a place, first 3, and that is shocking value also imo. I dont think he'll stay. |
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roobuck Lads are NRNB as far as i know so very little downside to that 16s ew Ursa
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Many thanks BJG - good point, really well made. I'm in
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They are NRNB on the race anyway so assume that applies to the w/o market!
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Yes it does - checked before placing the bet
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It was a good point but the goon I spoke to the phone claims it is not a NRNB market.
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If you pay peanuts.....
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A top 4 place is not nailed, but Dartford unlikely to plod on well enough, I can't see Michelangelo, Chamonix or Encke being good enough, Ursa M will probably stay at home. Guarantee shouldn't be up to it - only concern is that I fully respect Haggas' views and he doesn't overface his horses. He has an amazing classic ratio.
Which leaves Thought Worthy, Main Seq and Thomas. Main Seq rightfully fav in my book, but has to be a doubt on stamina even if he looks like he might even improve for the step up. TW solid enough, but Thomas beat him easily at Ascot and I would expect the same again given a truly run race. I think soft ground would have inconvenienced others rather than benefitting Thomas. |
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Rang up again and spoke to a different person who confirmed it was NRNB
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LWHM - On the whole I agree but I do think you underestimate Michelangelo's chance - do think Buick may choose him
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Michelangelo is likely to wear blinkers for the first time in the Ladbrokes St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday.
John Gosden fitted Arctic Cosmos with the same headgear when he landed the Town Moor Classic two years ago and the trainer is set to repeat the trick this weekend. Gosden told British Champions Series TV: "I think Michelangelo would be a strong possibility (to wear blinkers) for the same reason (as Arctic Cosmos). "He's a very genuine horse but he's quite dreamy and lacks focus. I've popped them on him, William was happy with them on, just to give him focus." Michelangelo is set to be joined by pacemaker Dartford, as well as his Great Voltigeur Stakes-winning stablemate Thought Worthy. Gosden is seeking to not only foil Camelot's quest for the Triple Crown, but also to complete a hat-trick in the race after Masked Marvel's triumph 12 months ago. |
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"We've made the decision to head for Doncaster (with Ursa Major) and let him take his chance against his own age group," said Tinkler's racing manager, Tim Jones.
"He's done absolutely nothing wrong up until now and appears to be very progressive. "He did his final piece of work this morning in advance of the weekend. It all went very well, so it's all systems go for Doncaster. "I think Johnny will ride him." |
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great stuff
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Any times experts got a view on the ground today?
Unless it suddenly turns hot, I'd be surprised if 'firm' will be in the going description come Sat |
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the times on Wednesday indicate good going and there is no rain forecast
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651123 so likely fast side of good |
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Glad to see W Buick has stuck with Thought Worthy in the Leger.
He is the form horse of the pair of Jonny Gs main hopes. I fully expect him to confirm the York win over Main Sequence, in fact to increase it over this trip of 1m6f+. He looks the bet w/o Camelot (was 4s with Hills) & for the place market on here. |
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I think the argument for Guarantee rests around the point that he brings different form lines to the race, admittedly from handicaps and a relatively modest mark. The others are all pretty exposed as being below Camelot at up to 12 furlongs and only Thomas Chippendale would appeal each way if the ground is on the soft side.
The Melrose was a very hot race as was a handicap a couple of weeks earlier at Haydock won by Gospel Choir and the one won by Godolphin at Ascot last weekend and these races were not far off Leger trials. Guarantee improved loads for his Ripon win, could do again and put over 3 lengths betwen himself and 2 other fancied, and presumably well handicapped rivals in the final furlong so stamina won't be an issue. He was getting only 3lbs from Sir Graham Wade, who admittedly didn't run his race at York but he's considered Johnston's best staying 3 year old and at big prices I thought him worth a bet a couple of weeks ago. |
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would camelot have acted around ripon,and would he have won the melrose recieving weight,
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my retirement quad cast if 1st Thomas C
2nd TW 3rd Camelot 4th Ursa M GL all |
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Back to work on Monday then eh
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THOUGHT WORTHY - the winner.
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Camelot canters home
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Well done backers - if there were any.
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Even the boysNblue did not fancy it!!!Strange one for the form book.  |
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1st time poster, would Camelot have won a Sandown handicap off 90?
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Sickener.
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Encke ran close to his Gordon stakes form beating Michaelangelo a bit further. He probably idled a bit in front and it didn't look to me like Camelot was ever going to get past him. You'd have to say
Cecil made a big mistake not running Noble Mission who beat Encke at Goodwood though Encke may have improved a bit. Camelot clocked on my figures a 13 + second last furlong(a slow time on fast ground) and didn't see the trip out well enough. If they ran the race again with a faster early pace ,I reckon Encke would win again possibly by further if the jockey held onto him a bit longer. |