well some could say al ferof was unlucky at cheltenham and maybe he was...i have my own views as the horses was a wash with sweat pre race and was obviously fretting, i also thought after further examination that he ran slightly with the choke out in the race as after he made the mistake he only lost 2 lengths and never found anything off the bridle thereafter collapsing quicker than a cheap argos tent...he has all the hallmarks of becoming a really regressive animal and a creature to be very wary off as his aintree run backed up...it is possible that a hard race in the supreme followed by a tough battle up the sandown hill (or was it that he was just not finding that much) against for non stop followed by a tough ask in open company against somersby and finians have left there mark....

in short he is not a betting option at any price for any top race and if he wins in top company again i will be very surprised and it will be a credit to his trainer if he can achieve this with this regressive individual as top open company awaits this bridle horse over fences this year...

brutal analysis but that is the way i feel about the horse and he now has unlimited questions to answer imo...and he certainly will not be winning a king george...

i will officially give up the game if he does but he won't..

Extremely brutal,harsh and quite frankly,with respect,B0ll0cks.Imo.

Any horse that made an error like that would be badly affected,it was a race ending error.
Its not what he lost thats important,its the manner of the mistake,smashing into a fence with his belly.

There are 2 possible reasons for his Aintree run,either the often Aintree after Cheltenham factor,or the mistake has affected him.
I hope its the former,and if it is i expect him to contest top races this season,if its the latter,it could be a problem.

well budd you may think its b0110cks but i don't from a betting medium...i know you like the horse but believe people shouldn't be suckered in on this creature...we are going to have to disagree on this horse...but if he picks up a progressive profile again i for one will be astounded as he has all the trade marks in my book of a rogue...

we will see

budd glad to hear that you aren't a backer and respect you knowing how much you like the animal...

budd you know i say it how i see it...

in terms of the arkle he was going well but had sweated pre race and for me travelled choke out...i know he breasted the fence but he lost 2 lengths and walsh gave him time but the response was zero...

like i say i have nothing against the animal but i get the feeling he is feeling his hard battles and sweating and fretting pre race is another sign of the animals temperamant being tested to the full...time will tell pal and hope i'm wrong for his followers, as he looked such a resolute and tough novice hurdler...

this has nothing to do with his hurdle form budd as we all know he was as gamer individual as you would find....

but for me over fences he has just found the same pace off the bridle....not a lot

what i would say is he is highly likely to produce his best performance early on before he starts to think about it...

we will see and the jury is out...and i for one have made my verdict clear...the case continues

Yes i wont be betting him either mate,not till i have seen him this season.

Clearly you think a lot of the horse and from what I've read on the PP thread you believe him as having at least as much potential as Grand Crus? AF now confirmed for the PP and is 16s. Surely in your mind that price is taking his last couple of runs into consideration and ignoring GC's last run. Wouldn't that be the time to invest?

I will add that i think all those horses have potential to reach the top at their chosen distance,and hope they do of course,just not sure they will.

Now we have the entries, does anyone have thoughts on whether Sizing Europe, For Non Stop or Sir des Champs will run?

Mullins has already said SDC will also be entered in the Lexus. I suppose if Flemenstar spanks him in the Durkan, Mullins may not want them to meet again so soon as SDC could come to Britain at Christmas.

Can someone please explain why Sizing Europe is a bigger price than the likes of Riverside theatre, Cue card, and Silvinaco conti please?

If he runs, which seems a strong possibility, he should be vying for favourotism.

I think Sizing has a great chance and they seem keen to run him. He be in the top 3 in the race in terms of class and he has the tactical speed to excel round Kempton. It's just a question whether he stays 3 m (rather than the 2 m 6f he appears to stay) - and whether the gorund is G-S or better.

FWIW, I don't think Long Run does excel at 3 m (needs further now imo) and I also feel he's better on soft/G-S than good.

Sizing Europe on a flat 3m round Kempton, he is as good as ever and is 100% being aimed for the race. 12/1 is proper value. He is the moral champion chaser don't forget. Long Run the only danger if he can rekindle his form of 2 years ago.

If Finians stays,watch out!!
For me this race really hinges on whether he and SE stay well enough,if so they will be too good imo.
If not,god knows who will win,but imo it wont be a good winner that will go on to win the Gold Cup.
Unless somehow Long Run gets back to the form of a couple of years ago.
Oh and if SDC comes over,he will win imo,but i dont think he will.

FWIW, I don't think Long Run does excel at 3 m (needs further now imo) and I also feel he's better on soft/G-S than good.

Strontium

Long Run won the 2011 King George by 12L beating Riverside Theatre - showing top class 3 mile pace.
He then finished 2nd to Kauto Star last year both horses pulling way clear.

He obviously does excel at 3 miles. No idea what you are basing you analysis on.

Also he showed his liking for good ground when winning the God Cup by 7L...Grands Crus would be a tough nut on soft.

angel good points...but does grands crus really want soft i don't think he does

Grands Crus is fine on good ground. I just feel that he will come into his own on soft ground these Dom Alco horses seem more effective than most on soft ground. Same with Al Ferof.

Also if it`s good ground, those with question marks over stamina will find it much easier.

Maybe. (Fwiw I think Kauto was around a stone off his best at the start of last season - but only because his best was so darn good). As I say, it's possible to make a good case LR is still the one to beat in the KG and with the question marks against each individual in the market he's a reasonable favourite at this stage.

Perhaps LR did down tools at Cheltenham last time? He got beaten by 2 horses who on paper he should have picked up and carried. I feel he might have to improve his jumping at Kempton relative to last season's King G. Once Kauto turned the screw, LR hit 3 or 4 of the last 7 fences and that surely cost him too much speed/momentum. The upcoming renewal won't have an opponent with the quality of Kauto Star, but it looks to have considerably more depth than December 2011.

Long Run is a bit of a mental black hole for me. I just don't like him for various (probably unfair) reasons and that might well affect my judgement about him. Nevertheless, I do think with a lot of miles on the clock, including some very punishing races, his best days are behind him.

Anyway, I'm off to the races. Have a good day.

I think the 193 given to Kauto could have been a little generous after his 2009 KG.

On average he was a 186 horse on his game. He ran to 183 last year and Long Run was snapping at his heals and i don`t see the form of the others matching this.

an apology to budd and al ferof supporters...amazing he was the horse that has just really shoved it up me in the paddy power...

i will be very interested how he performs next time as knew he maybe best when fresh...his next performance will tell us more...but an apology from me to budd...

but it was good row all the same

cheers Harry,very sporting mate.
This forums allowed a bit of debate,and the occasional row!!

Roobuck,
I said all along i would only back him if he turned up on the day with good reports,and thats what i did-minimum bet as well

Still enjoyed very much watching him perform as i hoped he would,and now can look forward to his future races without worrying if the Arkle had affected him.

Al Ferof looks very good value at 8s for KG. Long Run has always been over-rated (by about 10lbs, same as Master Minded was - both due to over-reaction to Festival wins).

I can't see Ruby getting off AF for Silvi Conti. G Crus future looks uncertain; F Rainbow not certain to stay or to jump well enough. Riv Theatre another whose jumping can crumble and, arguably not good enough anyway. Cue Card could be a danger but AF looks very solid to me. Won three times right handed and earned best RPR (prior to today) when 3rd in V Chandler.

Lost the Arkle at the 4th last. Trainer (as usual) couldn't resist the lure of big cash at Aintree and took the horse there when he should have been roughed off. Winner of arguably the best Supreme for many years; young, high class, improving, jumps, stays, superb jockey, doubts about most of his rivals.  How can he be 8/1?