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Clive Smith on his big decision With Kauto Star

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Replies: 179
By:
Viva Pataca
When: 21 Dec 11 18:35
Other than winning a Gold Cup, what similiarities do you see between Long Run, and the other one-off Gold Cup winners you quote: War of Attrition, Kicking King, Looks like Trouble?

And how are you sure so he's not in the Kauto Star / Best Mate category?

I agree with the majority of sentiment on this thread. Long Run is the most likely winner. But a Kauto Star victory would be a fairytale result.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Dec 11 01:08
I make no similarity with them as far as form is concerned, they all had differing tactics and preps and had differing trainers etc. The one thing a heck of a lot of Gold Cup winners have in common though is that they only won one and were never quite the same after. Now i know he is only 6, and i have already said i would love to see the young boy rout them on Monday and win hard held, as a new superstar would be fantastic for the sport but just cannot see it. I can have a horse come on a ton for a run in a handicap as last term, and as last term no one really new how potentially good LR could be, arguably we still don't but until he has proven it as a 2nd seasoned better than top class individual i.e winning the KG on Monday, then i hold judgement and am ready to back anything else against him!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Dec 11 01:11
Diamond Harry, slight drift from 18 - 21 but nothing wants to back it, and over £200 wanting to lay at 21, is this significant we think Confused
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 22 Dec 11 10:11
Haydock to honour Kauto Star with statue

By James Burn racingpost.com

HAYDOCK and Betfair have teamed up to commission a statue of Kauto Star to recognise the brilliant chaser's achievements at the track.

The 11-year-old landed his fourth Betfair Chase at Haydock when he thrashed Long Run last month and sculptor Willie Newton has been chosen to make a bronze of Clive Smith's superstar.


"I am thrilled at this fantastic gesture," beamed Smith. "The horse has really captured the public's imagination and hearts throughout his career, never more so than in the Betfair Chase, and it is an honour to have him recognised in this way."

Kauto Star's trainer Paul Nicholls added: "Kauto Star gave me my proudest day in 20 years as a trainer when he won his fourth Betfair Chase and this is deserved recognition for the great horse. Itwill be a constant reminder of that amazing day."

The two-time Gold Cup winner, who will bid for his fifth King George VI Chase at Kempton on Monday, also won the Betfair Chase in 2006, 2007 and 2009.

Haydock's managing director, Dickon White, reflecting on this year's race, said: "Everyone who was at the racecourse last month to see his victory will recall the race vividly for the rest of their lives.  It was truly one of the most outstanding performances by a racehorse in the modern era."
By:
strontium
When: 22 Dec 11 14:02
STS - At the prices I think you make a fair point. Some horses are bottomed by a hard Gold Cup and never run as well again. That is one explanation for LR's performance at Haydock. Another is just that he comes on greatly for a first run. But then he had a very hard race at Haydock anyway - will he be tip-top just 37 days after that? There is a history of horses having a hard race in the Betfair then flopping in the King George.

It's a fascinating King George with big question marks over all the players - so you can do worse than to take on a 5/4 shot:

Kauto - regressive. Trained to the minute for Haydock, this is an afterthought. Probably only 2 quality runs in 2 years.
Masterminded - never gone further than 21 f (20 f in the UK/outside novice company). Finds nothing off the bridle.
Diamond Harry - Stuffed by Long Run and Kauto at Haydock when everything was in his favour (flat track, goes best fresh, goes best in autumn). Seemingly well held.
Somersby - not good enough. Only won one 3 runner race since his novice days. Any mistake stops him. Finds nothing off the bridle.
Captain Chris - Never been further than 21 f. Last year's novice form keeps getting hammered. Haldon form ties him in too closely with Medermit and Cornas.
Nacarat - regressive. Seems to have lost the plot. Possible non-runner looking at the market. Well held by DH on collateral form.
Golan Way - no form suggests he's good enough in this company.
By:
judorick
When: 22 Dec 11 16:00
Yup I think LR is going to reverse the Haydock form and it will be LR and KS in the forecast
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Dec 11 17:42
Would agree with that as the first 2 in that order.
The one i think could split them is Somersby.Imo hes the most likely one of the unknown stayers that could get home ok.personally think he could well enjoy 3m round here.Hes ultra consistent in getting placed in big races,and will be carrying my e/w money.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Dec 11 18:42
hope you right Budd, backed him at 20's when he beat 1833 at the track earlier in the season. On breeding, he looks like he'll enjoy 3 miles.
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 23 Dec 11 00:56
Ruby Walsh: I never thought Kauto Star was finished... but Long Run will be too good

By Marcus Townend
L 22nd December 2011

Ruby Walsh is emphatic about who should be feeling the heat most in the countdown to the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day - and it is not him.
The Irish jockey may be trying to steer national treasure Kauto Star to an unprecedented fifth win in the Kempton race but, he insists, it is amateur rival Sam Waley-Cohen on Long Run who must deal with much greater pressure.
A new hierarchy is being hailed in steeplechasing and, even after Kauto Star's emotional defeat of his younger rival in last month's Betfair Chase, Walsh insists he and one of the greatest jumpers the sport has seen are underdogs.
'Last season Sam was riding the big white hope, now he's riding a superstar,' says Walsh. 'I know Long Run's a family horse but with the tag of a King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner comes that bit of pressure. He seems to be handling it well but it is a different ball game. I know that.'
Indeed, few are better qualified to comment. No other jump jockey competes so successfully at the top level as 32-year-old Walsh.
Success on Willie Mullins-trained duo Boston Bob and Zaidpour at Navan last Sunday made it 16 Grade One wins since the Cheltenham Festival in March when, returning after four months out with a broken leg, he silenced the doubters with a storming success on Al Ferof in the opener.
The 15 wins to follow have been gained despite yet another lengthy lay-off with a neck injury. In the same period, Richard Johnson has had six Grade One wins, Barry Geraghty five and, for all his success, Tony McCoy only one.
The potent ammunition supplied by Mullins and British champion Paul Nicholls ensures Walsh's enthusiasm is undimmed, despite the physical toll and constant danger that saw a mount kick off his helmet at Newbury last month as his prostrate frame was battered by flailing hooves.
'I've had my fair share of injuries, probably more,' says the jockey, whose spleen was removed following a blow to the stomach in 2008. 'Injuries are part of a National Hunt jockey's life. People from the outside don't realise that jump jockeys don't just do it for the money. It's a love, an addiction.
'It's something I live with. When you get hurt, all you think of is the next time you are going to ride a winner. Pain is temporary. Horses have been my life and are all I know. Do I have the temperament to train (when I retire)? I don't know but I'm sure I'll find out. It will be a new challenge but hopefully one I don't have to find out about for a long time.'
Kauto Star has played a massive role in fulfilling Walsh's passion for riding big winners. The duo have secured four King Georges and two Cheltenham Gold Cups in their 16 successes. Their partnership stretches back to a novice chase at Newbury on December 29, 2004.

Rarely does a jockey have a chance to forge such an extended relationship with a mount. That this era is close to an end was emphasised when Kauto Star's stablemate and rival Denman  suffered a career-ending injury this month.
'Kauto Star is just  an incredible horse,' says Walsh. 'With a racehorse, any day can be the end of the road. They are fragile. I never thought Kauto and Denman would last so many years going head to head. It's a testament to Paul Nicholls.'
Walsh must have feared the glory days were over when 11-year-old Kauto Star, under McCoy,  succumbed to six-year-old Long Run in last year's King George. Defeat in the Gold Cup followed and then Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown. But now history beckons on Boxing Day as Kauto Star seeks to go one better than the mighty four-time King George winner Desert Orchid.
Walsh insists it is not sentiment that has made him choose Kauto Star over younger Nicholls-trained stablemate and 11-2 third favourite Master Minded, the former two-mile champion chaser racing over three miles for the first time.
Walsh said: 'Master Minded will stay and he has a cracking chance. The plan for him has always been Kempton. The plan for Kauto was Haydock but things have changed. He's been so good at Kempton.
'You were thinking, "Is there another Grade One in Kauto?" but I never thought he was finished. He gives you so much, you never think you've no chance.'
Oh yes, Haydock; the most emotional day of the racing year when calls for the fading Kauto Star to be retired were drowned out as he roared to a first win over Long Run and a fourth Betfair Chase success. It was vintage Kauto Star and Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson and owned by Waley-Cohen's father Robert, couldn't live with him. The old champion had picked himself off the canvas and bloodied the nose of the upstart who had wrested his titles away. But what of the re-match?
'Kauto was in great nick, probably a better horse than he was at any stage last season, but I didn't think he'd beat Long Run and I don't think he'll beat him in the King George,' admits Walsh.
'That doesn't mean I don't hope he will. I just think Long Run will be a better horse in the King George. Long Run looked a bit ring rusty at Haydock and that was the way he ran. Paul's horses traditionally hit top gear three to four weeks before Nicky's do. Paul's are still going, Nicky's have just caught up.'
Are those just the honest words of a professional? Or could they be designed to heap pressure on Waley-Cohen? Surely not, Ruby.

THE STORY SO FAR
JANUARY 15, 2011 King George VI Chase, Kempton

Kauto Star is 4-7 to secure a fifth King George, but the champion’s jumping lacks fluency for substitute jockey AP McCoy. Long Run, a 9-2 chance, travels smoothly throughout to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, with Kauto Star seven lengths further back in third.
March 18, 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Long Run is the 7-2 favourite but makes several minor mistakes as Kauto Star (5-1) forges ahead with Denman on the final circuit. But as the trio charge to the penultimate fence, Long Run drives past his older rivals to beat Denman seven lengths. Kauto Star is four lengths further back.
November 19, 2011 Betfair Chase, Haydock

With his future on the line, 6-1 chance Kauto Star is given an attacking, front-running ride by Walsh. Long Run, the 6-5 favourite, holds on stoutly despite three blunders in the back straight but can’t reel in Kauto Star, who goes away to win by eight lengths
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2077697/Ruby-Walsh-I-thought-Kauto-Star-finished...
By:
stevo1
When: 23 Dec 11 01:04
I will give up gambling for rest of year if Somersby wins!
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Dec 11 06:35
he will run well imo,should not beat long run though,but could beat Kauto if the Haydock race did any damage.
By:
judorick
When: 23 Dec 11 09:51
yes there is no reason why Sommersby won't run a decent race and he has always looked a stayer. Indeed I was expecting him to be campaigned at 3 miles plus ever since the Arkle. Anyway, would be a surprise should he win but a good effort is entirely reasonable
By:
pires
When: 23 Dec 11 11:12
always had somersby down as a non stayer !!!!
By:
pires
When: 23 Dec 11 11:12
always had somersby down as a non stayer !!!!
By:
judorick
When: 23 Dec 11 15:39
really he is a tripless one pacer and they tend to be better over longer
By:
mr_sykes
When: 23 Dec 11 17:26
not beyond KS not finishing the race,cant have him for this after Haydock,could also open the door for a lively outsider to grab a place,a lot of doubts about many of the runners LR should win.
By:
duffy
When: 23 Dec 11 18:12
^
that just about sums it up for me
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 24 Dec 11 13:41
Long Run earns my vote to conquer Kauto Star in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day

The King George VI Chase looks like it will be a classic, so it is all the more disappointing that I'll be sitting it out with none of my regular rides among the eight runners.


By AP McCoy  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/

A year ago I rode Kauto Star while Ruby Walsh was injured and we were well beaten by Long Run into third. He's been an amazing horse, winning this race four times, and for whatever reason, it looks like he was suffering an 'off' season in 2010-11. At Haydock on his return he looked back to his best and you can never discount him.
Having said that, I believe Long Run will take all the beating. A lot of Nicky Henderson's best horses improve for their first run and I'd be surprised if he's not improved a lot from being beaten by Kauto Star at Haydock.
I don't think Master Minded will stay as well as either of those two and if I was to suggest a forecast on the race it would be Long Run to be followed home by Captain Chris.


My best ride at Kempton on Boxing Day is Binocular in the Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (2.35).
He is defending the title he won a year ago when beating Overturn by four lengths. That form was reversed by Overturn at Newcastle this season but I am confident Binocular will have come on leaps and bounds for the run. I schooled him on Thursday morning and he felt in great shape and he came to this race last season after a similarly disappointing run at Newcastle. Overturn can be a tough nut to crack but I am hopeful of victory and reckon Rock On Ruby is my biggest danger.

I start the day on Temple Lord in the William Hill Home of Betting Novice Handicap Chase (1.25). His first two runs were at Ffos Las and I was a bit disappointed he didn't win either. He had been off the track for a long time before the first run, so that could have been a reason. He did win last time at Folkestone, although only he and one other stood up, but he's improving, his jumping is a bit better and hopefully he has a chance in what is a competitive little chase. Our Mick is the one to beat.

Teaforthree is not a bad sort and beat Restless Harry by 3½ lengths at Chepstow last time but he meets three of the best novice chasers in the country in the Williamhill.com Feltham Novice Chase (2.0).

This is a real belter of a race with Bobs Worth, Grands Crus and Silviniaco Conti in it. In all probability the quicker Kempton track won't suit Teaforthree quite as well as Chepstow as he feels like an out-and-out stayer.

Of the other three, we've got Bobs Worth who has not been beaten since second in his first bumper, Silviniaco Conti looks to have improved since he was beaten by Cue Card first time out and Grands Cru. Purely on their hurdling form I'd go with Grands Crus who has looked a natural chaser in both starts over fences.

If Kauto Star wins the King George no one will take much notice of the last race, the Bet With Williamhill.com on Your Mobile Handicap Hurdle (3.40) in which I ride Christoper Wren. He's won his last two races at Leicester and seems to be on the upgrade. Hopefully he has a great chance but Knight Pass, favourite for last season's Cheltenham Bumper, looks well weighted having won at Exeter and then been beaten on dead ground at Sandown





ima_mazed66
24 Dec 11 13:21   











Anyone saying they don't think Master Minded will stay, are you just saying that purely because the horse is yet to go 3 miles or is there anything specific that makes you think so?

It's not like he's going from 2 miles to 3 miles in one step with no evidence of staying anything in between, as the horse has winning form at 2m 4f at Aintree when beating Albertas Run by 9L and also won the Amlin Chase last time at Ascot which is 2m 3f and beat Somersby 3L there. That horse has winning and placed form at 2m 4½f and Master Minded also won the Amlin the year before beating I'msingingtheblues by 16L and I know they maybe aren't the very top notch but they have won and been placed in their fair share of fairly decent races.....plus after coming off the last bend at Ascot it's uphill all the way and takes some getting.

I'm not saying Master Minded definitely will stay but was just interested in any reasons why anyone with a view thought that he wouldn't. Having said that I wouldn't be too surprised if he made the frame and not entirely shocked if he won or went close barring any mishaps. We've seen horses like One Man and Edredon Bleu win it in the past when shorter trips probably suited them better.





Anaglogs Daughter
24 Dec 11 13:40   











Chris McGrath independent.co.uk:

Long Run haunted by a ghost of Christmas past

Inside Track: Boxing Day history beckons after a star is reborn in legendary four-time winner KautoHe stands on the threshold between present and past, life and legend.

As the only horse to win the King George VI Chase four years running, Kauto Star returns to Kempton on Boxing Day already guaranteed a place in steeplechasing lore alongside Desert Orchid, that grey phantom of Christmas past. But a miraculous rejuvenation means that he remains a tangible force for the here and now, as well.

Clive Smith, his owner, knows how perilous that margin can be. In 1966, he patted Arkle on the backside as he was led away. "Goodbye, old mate," he said. He knew that defeat by Dormant must spell the end of a career that remained sacred against all comparison until Kauto Star's fourth win, in 2009, by an eye-watering 36 lengths.

Smith also has distressing memories of Desert Orchid's final appearance, in the 1991 running. The veteran was well beaten when coming down three out, and Smith has long said that he would like to spare Kauto Star that kind of indignity.

And the fact is that many of us, a year ago, could no longer see how some such exit might be avoided. Kauto Star finally seemed in decline. He would have been perfectly within his rights. Not quite three years old when first raced over hurdles, in France, he had become the first jumper to win Grade One prizes in seven different seasons. Back at Kempton, he showed none of his usual gusto as Long Run – not even born when Kauto Star won his first race in Britain, at Newbury's own Christmas meeting in 2004 – apparently gave formal notice of a changing of the guard.

Paul Nicholls, his trainer, was affronted by suggestions that the horse be retired, understandably aggrieved that anyone might presume greater concern about Kauto Star's welfare. But the horse's fans had been terrified by the horse's marrow-shaking fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup the previous March. It did seem legitimate to fret that any future gains for Kauto Star – for all his relish for his calling – could scarcely justify the implicit risks.

His next performance, back in the Gold Cup, itself contained sufficient vestiges of his pomp to vindicate Nicholls, albeit Long Run ultimately reiterated the new pecking order. When Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown, however, the game seemed up. He had now been beaten in four of his last five starts.

Once again, Nicholls and Smith persevered. And they were rewarded, on the horse's comeback at Haydock last month, with a breathtaking revival. Over breakfast, Nicholls had told Ruby Walsh to let the horse bowl along in front. "Do I give him a breather?" the jockey asked. Nicholls knew he had left no margin for error in the horse's fitness. "No," he said.

In extending his Grade One spree into an eighth season, Kauto Star jumped so aggressively that Long Run became dazed by the pursuit, losing his rhythm and dropping away before rallying bravely over the final fences. The place went berserk, and it was easy to indulge Nicholls his pride and emotion. Always so open, even when sorely tested by the turn of events, the champion trainer is entitled to equal candour when proved right. And it had turned out that his faith was not blind.

Nicholls feels now that Kauto Star was never right last season. "He was making a noise, and I said to Clive that you'd give a younger horse a breathing operation," he said. "He was so lethargic. He was never going to win the King George, at any stage. But at Haydock I thought he would from the moment he went to the front."

And so the stage is set for a fourth, classic shoot-out between the old king and his young usurper – so much so that Master Minded, another top-class steeplechaser in Smith's colours, barely warrants a footnote. William Hill, the race sponsors, have favoured Long Run throughout, Nicky Henderson having apparently left him short of his peak for Haydock, with Kempton and Cheltenham in mind. But Nicholls has been cheerfully dismissive of that theory. "You're not going to run a horse as good as him, a six-year-old, in a 200-grand Grade One, and need the race too much," he said. "Long Run looked superb in the paddock. I'm sure he's going to improve, but he's got to find eight lengths with us."

There is a reciprocal certainty in Long Run's owner, Robert Waley-Cohen. "As far as we're concerned, it was a dress rehearsal," he said. "Ours is a tricky horse to motivate and get ready first time out." His silks will as usual be worn by his son, Sam – and Waley-Cohen feels those conspicuous forced errors at Haydock were misleading. "Technically, it was the horse's most proficient display," he said. "He just wasn't quite matching strides with Kauto Star in the back straight. At Kempton last year, the reverse was true. And, unlike Kauto Star, he's never fallen or been pulled up."

Both camps seem adamant that they have the overall momentum, and each would relish seeing off a rival diluting the stature of their own horse. "People normally get behind the reigning champion," Waley-Cohen observed. "They want to see a great champ, see him confirm that he is the real thing. But on this occasion everyone wants to see the old boy have a last hurrah."

No quarter will be sought or given between Walsh, the peerless professional, and a rival who runs a chain of dental practices. But Waley-Cohen believes the unsparing nature of the contest will play to Long Run's strengths. "He was outstanding at Kempton last year, and outstanding in the Feltham [for novices, over the same course and distance] the year before," he said. "There's no opportunity for a breather round there. You just go as fast as you can, for as long as you can. There's no pity, no mercy, in a King George."

Nicholls agrees that it is a myth that Kempton is a pure test of speed. In fact, he reckons it a stiffer test than Cheltenham. "There's no hiding place round there," he said. Nothing else for it, then. They'll just have to run.
By:
judorick
When: 26 Dec 11 16:23
and people were saying he should miss this race

thankfully they took the right decision!

amazing stuff so pleased
By:
strontium
When: 26 Dec 11 16:33
Marvellous. He made me cry.
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