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Clive Smith on his big decision With Kauto Star
Clive Smith on his big decision With Kauto Star
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Replies: 179
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A horse of his undoubted class should be able to absorb a mistake like that imo.
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exactly Headmaster
which is why he is subject to so much criticism |
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have seen far worse mistakes than that tbf.
they simply have to try 3 miles now. Last chance saloon. |
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Anyway,back to the topic of discussion.
Kauto for another Gold Cup?? Hes got a big chance yer know. Long Run,a few rather doubtful stayers possibly and last seasons novices,oh and must not forget his stablemate. Thats the opposition he will face. Nowt to be worried about even at his age,just the possibility of running in the KG in the way. |
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I laid Kauto, Denman and IC all last year right up to Xmas while they were the head of the market. They have less chance this year Budd. Kauto won't be winning the GC or should I say he has a low probability of success which is how I prefer to think of it.
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Long Run,a few rather doubtful stayers possibly and last seasons novices,oh and must not forget his stablemate.
Thats the opposition he will face. With respect budd that's quite a simplistic view at the mo. While you may be right, it is perfectly feasible that a handicapper on a charge will force his way into the picture, or a hot novice will throw his hat in the ring, or a French horse, either trained over there or bought and trained over here, could emerge etc.etc. and something's got to win the Cotswold, the Aon, the Lexus, the Ascot Chase, the Hennessy, alongside the handicaps. There'll be realistic challengers and a fair few of them, don't worry about that. Nigh-on four months is a long time in a horse's career....a handful will improve markedly between now and the Gold Cup, but Kauto, sadly, isn't one of them. This King George is up for grabs though isn't it? I think McCain, for one, has realised that, as Weird Al was supposed to be on a break the last I read. He's gone through at the latest scratching stage though.  |
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Have to agree and in any case I can't see Kauto beating Long Run at Cheltenham so at this stage he can't be a bet unless you are gambling on whether Long Run turns up or jumps badly
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So Headmaster,give me likely runners that does not include Long Run,the doubtful stayers and the novices,which most are crabbing.
All those races you mention will be won by one of the above i imagine Wont be winning?? Bit matter of fact for this game imo Judo. |
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read the rest of the sentence Budd
says "has a low probability"  |
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What price will you lay me judorick? Trends and stats are broken all the time, just look at the National, every year the 'weight' stat seems to creep up another pound. For you to say Kauto can't win based on stats is verging on buffoonery, and that's not a word I use lightly. I'm not saying he will or even trying to make a case, but to make such sweeping statements about a horse who is one of the best ever is a tad foolish in my very humble opinion.
Also, please post your lays.   |
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Sorry Judo,low probabailty.
Could you tell me which horse/horses you expect to beat Kauto Star in the Gold Cup aside from the horse that Kauto just outjumped at Haydock,and forget yer stats and trends if you dont mind. |
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Hi budd,
Being able to correctly predict which horses will turn up in March rather defeats the object of it being unpredictable. I wouldn't dare to suggest which unconsidered horses will turn up, although it's fun to have a stab and I've been known to luck out on a wild one on the odd occassion. There's one horse I'm particularly keen to load up on although that's proving troublesome at the mo. Anyway, let me switch it and ask you to predict the field. With respect, you'll have outperformed any punter that's gone before you if you nail it. Equally, you say the races I mention will be won by a member of one of your groups, but by definition the doubtful stayer(s) will allay those fears by winning, or the cr@p novice will prove himself not to be so cr@p after all etc.etc. I should declare at this point that I wasn't taken with any of the novices from last season...not any of the ones that troubled the judge at Cheltenham or Aintree anyway...and still believe Kauto and, more importantly imo, Denman to be right at the top of the 3m Chasing tree. I can't see why Kauto should finish in front of Denman in the Gold Cup, though (especially with Denman twice the price) which makes this potential King George swerve so frustrating. |
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None of those races will be 3m2f round Cheltenham,so will not allay fears about staying.
One Man p1ssed the KG-just an example. The irish races will probably be contested by the Irish novices and Joncol types.None of which at this stage look fIt to lace Kautos boots,so to speak.Although i still have hopes for some ive backed ages ago. Course i dont know the line up now,but we all have a pretty good idea.Yes,something could come out of the woodwork,but it better get a shift on. Denman i agree is interesting still,but the difference there is Kauto has come out this season and proved he can still muck it. |
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What price will you lay me judorick?
Hopefully will be able to lay it on the day in single figures. All I say, again ffs, is that betting horses (any horse) to overcome long established and powerful trends is not LIKELY to be a profitable strategy - and that is all I am concerned about. So go ahead and back Kauto and Denman in the Gold Cup, back 9 and 10 year olds in the Arkle or horses with low handicap hurdle ratings, back Triumph Hurdle winners and 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle... for the next 10 years and see if you make a profit. It's about the individual race, horse or whatever. And again, this is at this stage of proceedings |
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Well they seem pretty bullish about the old slugger too, budd. I'm not sure enough people are acknowledging the Denman/Kauto scores. The only time Kauto Star has actually finished infront of Denman was when Denman had a very difficult season coming off the back of his heart-scare and finished second to KS in the Gold Cup. It's currently 3-1 to Denman...let's assume, no reason not too, that he's just as well prepared as Kauto come March...I can't see why KS will beat him, can you?
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poxy forum, cant edit
its NOT about the individual horse or race |
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To be honest if they both turned up fit and well i would not be surprised which one would finish in front of the other,just depends on their jumping on the day,and thats one thing i cannot predict
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think the going is important to both horses
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To be honest i never thought we would be talking about these 2 in relation to a Gold cup again.i really thought that was it after last season.Then Kauto comes out and beats the Gold Cup and KG winner,and it all starts again!!
So i start looking at what he can achieve in what must be his last season,and what starts happening?? A lot of his potential rivals put in performances below the standard required and all of a sudden hes 2nd fav!! Cant wait to see what Denman gives us when he runs.If he smashes the Lexus field the cat will be well amongst the pigeons!! |
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DENMAN RETIRED
FFS!!!!! |
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Yeh,such a shame,was looking forward to the Lexus,but what a few years he gave us.
Deserves his retirement for sure. |
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If you rattle the cage of the Gold Cup market, the plate looks a bit sparse now. If the distance was the problem and Mon Parrain is a stayer and wins 20l today will he enter the fray??
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Obv not
 Do you think that Denmans retirement will now affect the decision to run Kauto at Kempton either way Pros-He could get injured before March in the same way Cons-If KS runs a clunker at Kempton he probably wouldnt have a runner in the race |
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mon parrain is reminding me of somersby a little.
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Think Master Minded is more likely to affect the decision,that and whether they feel KS can now do both races.
I really think they want him to bow out in March,and want to give him every chance of doing that with a win. Dont think KS and MM will both run at Kempton,so if MM runs, which hes been trained for,Kauto wont. |
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With the likely chance that this race could cut up quite a bit, and there being less then 8 runners in the field, 5/1 MM is a steal and some price imo he will be a lot shorter on the day, i expect less then 3s with LR around the 6/5 5/4 area if KS is in the field i can see it being
LR 6/5 KS 9/4 MM 11/4 CC 13/2 bar with only 7 or less runners |
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I have been backing him at all rates from 5s - 10s after his seasonal debut and again today at 5s!
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Mon Parrain is nothing like Somersby. He just wallopped by the handicapper for winning a terrible,terrible race at Sandown by 22 lengths.
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a good few people were calling him a gold cup winner after that sandown win.......very few were saying that he was nothing of the kind and was simply flattered....in truth he is neither one nor the other.....but ultimately has to be rated as disappointing at the moment at least...much like somersby really.
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his performance at aintree did not suggest that he was feeling the effects of an over zealous handicapper as he travelled like a dream...but emptied in a stride....if he was to be feeling the effects of the extra stone odd ...he wouldn't have operated the way he did through that race.
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Agree Duffy, theres something wrong somewhere, for 95% of the Aintree race he looked well handicapped!!
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MM is the only bet in the race at this stage of antepost imvho, at 5/1 3 places and 1/4 odds e/way!
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5/1 for a doubtful stayer?? not for me.
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I distinctly remember saying the same thing about a certain Kauto Star buddeliea. Oh how wrong i was! LOL!
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well its possible he could stay of course,but i just think 5,s is a bit short to find out,plus even if he does stay he still has to beat some top 3m horses.
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yes not sure about MM budd.The 5,s looks short agree but
then again could suprise us.Not for me though. As regards stats/trends they are helpful but not conclusive. I dont think its a good idea to wipe out most of the field in an instant.Used as an additional tool yes they are helpful IMO |
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Well having backed both Kauto Star (11/2 and 5s) and MM (5s & 10s) I believe i have the first 3 covered in the race. If KS doesn't run for whatever reason i cannot have MM outside the first 3 and vice versa and of course a nichols 1-2 in the race is not out of the question either, especially if you take the opinion as i do that LR will not win again this term! That might be fool hardy to say, but i am merely looking back through the ages and looking at how often top horses have one 'best season' of their careers then just run ok for the rest of it!
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Both will run, provided Kauto showing up well at home. That's what connections have said so why doubt them?
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Well well well. Kauto runs, here's hoping he can reproduce the Haydock performance, if so he has a great chance.
I personally would have preferred them to wait for the GC, but there's no doubt the KG course & distance suit him. Although I made my mind up to take Long Run on this year, I think that despite his first run I may have got him wrong and if he improves for the run he'll be very hard to beat. For my TTF I would love to see MM win, but there is only one horse I'll be cheering on if he's challenging in the home straight. |
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Exciting! What a treat to see the two great Nicholls/Smith chasers line up together.
Anyone know what Clive Smith's second colours are? Come on Kauto! |