Horse Antepost
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05 Dec 11
21:00
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05 Jan 10
Clive Smith is not allowing himself to be fooled by Kauto Sar’s perky demeanour in the run-up to the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day as he steels himself to make the toughest decision he has faced as an owner.
By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath) TELEGRAPH.CO.UK
Smith has seen it all before with Kauto Star and knows that his brilliant performer’s bright mood at home does not always translate into a sparkling performance on the racecourse.
Truth be told, Kauto Star is such a showman and maintains such a physical presence that even the most experienced of observers at Paul Nicholls’ yard can be tricked, occasionally, as to his wellbeing.
Hence, with the King George only 20 days away, connections have agreed to sit and wait as long as possible before deciding whether the gelding attempts to land an incredible fifth win in racing’s main Christmas attraction.
“We’re not going to say much [on the issue] to give ourselves every chance of making the right decision,” said Smith.
“Kauto is in great shape. He’s giving every sign that he has recovered well after [winning] the Betfair Chase, but we’ve seen that before. He’s always got plenty of bounce about him at home, so it can be hard to tell.
“After he finished second to Denman in the Gold Cup [in 2008], he looked to be in great form at home, yet he went to Aintree and was just beaten by Our Vic, which he should never have been [if he was at his best]. The fact is that he had a hard race in the Gold Cup, yet he was bouncing a few days later.”
One of the key factors being analysed by connections is how much Haydock’s Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star returned to his brilliant best to see off Gold Cup winner Long Run, really took out of him.
“He had a tough race that day and so did Long Run by the way. The danger is, of course, that Kauto comes out again quickly and runs flat. There is a possibility we might just hold to him on until the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
“It is a tough decision and I’ll be taking all the advice I can get,” said Smith.
Whatever the decision, Smith’s familiar green, gold and purple colours will be carried in the King George by Master Minded. The gelding is 5-1 third favourite in ante-post betting behind Long Run (6-4) and Kauto Star (4-1).
“He has been aimed at the race for some time and we feel that he’s better now than he was at Ascot last month [when winning].”
Master Minded has never raced over further than two miles and five furlongs and never won over further than two and a half miles, but
connections obviously do not have any stamina doubts regarding the three miles of the King George. If Kauto Star stays in his stable then Master Minded should prove an able deputy
By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath) TELEGRAPH.CO.UK
Smith has seen it all before with Kauto Star and knows that his brilliant performer’s bright mood at home does not always translate into a sparkling performance on the racecourse.
Truth be told, Kauto Star is such a showman and maintains such a physical presence that even the most experienced of observers at Paul Nicholls’ yard can be tricked, occasionally, as to his wellbeing.
Hence, with the King George only 20 days away, connections have agreed to sit and wait as long as possible before deciding whether the gelding attempts to land an incredible fifth win in racing’s main Christmas attraction.
“We’re not going to say much [on the issue] to give ourselves every chance of making the right decision,” said Smith.
“Kauto is in great shape. He’s giving every sign that he has recovered well after [winning] the Betfair Chase, but we’ve seen that before. He’s always got plenty of bounce about him at home, so it can be hard to tell.
“After he finished second to Denman in the Gold Cup [in 2008], he looked to be in great form at home, yet he went to Aintree and was just beaten by Our Vic, which he should never have been [if he was at his best]. The fact is that he had a hard race in the Gold Cup, yet he was bouncing a few days later.”
One of the key factors being analysed by connections is how much Haydock’s Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star returned to his brilliant best to see off Gold Cup winner Long Run, really took out of him.
“He had a tough race that day and so did Long Run by the way. The danger is, of course, that Kauto comes out again quickly and runs flat. There is a possibility we might just hold to him on until the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
“It is a tough decision and I’ll be taking all the advice I can get,” said Smith.
Whatever the decision, Smith’s familiar green, gold and purple colours will be carried in the King George by Master Minded. The gelding is 5-1 third favourite in ante-post betting behind Long Run (6-4) and Kauto Star (4-1).
“He has been aimed at the race for some time and we feel that he’s better now than he was at Ascot last month [when winning].”
Master Minded has never raced over further than two miles and five furlongs and never won over further than two and a half miles, but
connections obviously do not have any stamina doubts regarding the three miles of the King George. If Kauto Star stays in his stable then Master Minded should prove an able deputy
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Reading that i get the opinion that he should not run,and that his next race should be the Gold Cup.It may,just May give him a great chance of another Gold Cup,and what an achievement that would be,especially after being written off by so many.
It would provide us with something never to be forgotten and probably never beaten for emotion,ever. |
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5 KGs on the table and they say no deal? Mad imo. Stone cold bonking.
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All about whats best for the horse,he will run wherever,depending on that.
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That's an interesting one, budd. What constitutes being best for the horse? Is it the race he's most likely to win or the race he'll possibly have the best prep for?
No doubt in my mind that Long Run is shaping more and more as though he'll need the extended trip of the Gold Cup to be seen at his best and there'll also be plenty of others who are trained to peak for it and will improve plenty in the meantime, unlike Kauto Star - who's a 12/1 shot for the race. On the other hand you could have a stab at a race he's won four times already (for a surely never-to-be-beaten five-timer) against a fav who has a little to prove round there now, a third fav who may or may not get the trip, a fourth fav who may or may not turn up and, to be honest, very little else barring a supplementary. For that race, he's currently 4/1. I know where I'd be heading. |
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The unknown is that he's(to my eyes and the Trainers comments over the years) never been trained to the minute for a 1st time out effort before and that run has seen him at his best, normally its been a trot around down royal, the last couple of times he's ran after a hard race at Cheltenham after a real race he's come up short when he's ran again and it wasnt against the strongest opposition.
They think they have the winner in Master Minded |
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Bearing in mind he's being trained to run on the day anyway, I wonder if it would get Pond House thinking should Kauto come out and, say, Captain Chris not recover. What price would Grand Crus be with a supp? No bigger than third fav and single figures, yes?
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Just about TH, ive nailed my mast to Somersby as ive had him down for a try at the trip, idont think that either KS or CC will run and anyway the novices from last year look desperate, GC would make this very interesting, but if neither of those 3 turn up i think my ew at 20s looks promising
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I would agree if I'd backed him. Wouldn't be at all happy that he's running on Thursday though. He's already booked his King George ticket, the Peterborough is just an opportunity to rip it up imo.
This race is in danger of cutting up outside Long Run and Master Minded. Doubts about Captain Chris and Kauto Star. McCain's already ruled out Weird Al. Midnight Chase runs at Wetherby. Nacarat, Quinz and Wishfull Thinking appear to have lost it. Wayward Prince was pants at Newbury. Kauto Stone, Mon Parrain and What A Friend are out. Medermit, Planet Of Sound, The Giant Bolster, Noland, Somersby and Noble Prince are all running at some point before the King George, with various prospects of enhancing - or far more likely damaging - their claims. Henderson is struggling with Riverside Theatre and Diamond Harry is Diamond Harry and not for me. Barring a supplementary that leaves me with Tartak and Golan Way  |
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Or do Pond House know something about his lack of form going right handed, dont think hes won that way around, i know hes been kept mostly going the other way since his defeats earlier in his career
i can see this field cutting up |
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Yep , must admit that i wasnt too pleased about this race(and didnt factor it in since shes hardly prone to overracing her beasts)
Mind you given the form im in over jumps i shouldnt be surprised  |
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Yep , must admit that i wasnt too pleased about this race(and didnt factor it in since shes hardly prone to overracing her beasts)
Mind you given the form im in over jumps i shouldnt be surprised |
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Struggling, zil? Must admit I could do with a lift too
 They're aiming GC at the Feltham so I don't think they're too concerned. With Cheltenham, Aintree and Haydock being L/H it might just be circumstance? Don't think they've ducked on obvious target that was R/H....and he ran alright in two hot Taunton novice hurdles. Old Henry's a one isn't she? Shame they don't run the Peterbrough five times a season as I'm sure we'd see her stable star a lot more often...... |
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Yep recently im struggling 0-13 on the jumps
but i dont back at the top of the market, im back to where i was after the Ebor but had a cracking spring and summerid say about 85% of my bets are on the flat though, something about getting motivated in the winter as well, although on both codes im now a festival and weekend punter, too much to study properly for all the stuff nowdays. Maybe Hen knows that we are going to have another cold spell, i can actually see something like last year happening!! |
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I've backed Somersby also. Have no qualms with him running this week. He has been sparingly raced through his career and it is about time he saw plenty of action. He is in his peak now and if he wins on Thursday that has to be a plus going into the race. I suspect Hen will leave a little improvement aswell, if she knows what's good for her.
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Forfeits up on the RP site - Kauto Stone, Wishfull T, Wayward Prince, Midnight Chase, Roberto Goldback, Quinz out.
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i think smiths statement constitutes a massive tip for master minded.
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There were 24 horses in, there are 15 left, but the RP and Kate M think 6 have come out?
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Yes, it doesn't add up - although I think What a Friend and Mon Perrain were included in that 24 but had already come out. So I make it 16 still standing.
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headmaster,
When i say whats best for the horse,i meant running him when hes more likely to do himself justice.They have trained him different this season and thats crucial when talking about the KG and GC. He was trained to be prime for the Betfair chase and was cherry ripe,and it makes sense to me that he may not be in tip top shape for Kempton because of that.They wont be thinking 5 KG's we will take a chance. If he misses KG cos he aint ready to run his race it gives them more chance of having him in peak condition in March i would think. Whatever they do you can be sure its the right thing. |
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Hes a far better chance of winning the King George than he has of the gold cup imo.
Wouldnt personally bother with the gold cup. Go King George break then aintree |
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agree with budd....nicholls had him trained to the minute for haydock as he wanted to show all the doubters that he still had it and he duly rammed it down their throats.....these days we hear trainers pouring scorn on suggestions that their horses have performed a little under par, citing that "why would i have such and such in peak form now his target is months away",nicholls said it about master minded last time, well, that was kautos target, how can he be the same horse now....i worry after his exertions at haydock, should he run in the kg, that we get the kind of performance from him that the doubters expected at haydock!!
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THE DOUBTERS
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OFF WITH THEIR HEADS
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I think Mater Minded can win so I'm quite happy to see Kauto wait for Cheltenham, the novices coming through that bar possible improvement from captain chris, the GC will once again concern long Run, Kauto and denman. I could also see a little improvement from Diamond Harry, but that is about it. I'm of the oppinion that quito de la Roque is something of a plodder. I think a fresh and well Kauto will place again at least in the gold cup and I think the fact that connections are keen for this horse to finish on a high is key to this decision. They have always said MM was their King George horse so why run their two best horses against one another.
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sorry, second season novices look terrible*
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Sorry Geoff but i see absolutely no point in Kauto being trained for a race at Aintree,there aint one worthy of it,being probably his last ever race.That should be at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup,and thats what i think connections want and are looking to.
If he misses Kempton,they can have him as fit and fresh as they can possibly get him to have a go at going out on the biggest high possible. He dont need another KG,plus they have another horse to give them a chance in that one. Disagree about him having more chance in the KG,he has no problem with the Gold Cup,and connections have always said he is better left handed,although he aint bad right handed either!! |
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^^^agree completely with that, he has to run in the GC and they are worried a hard race in the KG might scupper his chances of running a big race in it.
He was settlet absolutely beautifully the year Imperial Commander won it and but for uprooting a fence I think he would have gone close that day. |
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Been going along with much of what you say, budd, but I'm afraid "he don't need another KG" and "disagree about him having more chance in the KG" has seen a parting of the ways!
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No worries mate,we all cant agree on everything.
Can i ask why you disagree,if thats ok? By the way ive just talked myself into backing him for the Gold Cup,dont seem that many that are better than him at 3m2f round Cheltenham,even at his age!! |
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I've been hoping they would give the KG a miss. While its difficult to argue that Kempton and 3m don't suit him better than 3m2 at Cheltenham, I think given how hard he was trained for Haydock the wise choice is to take a break and bring him back at that peak for Cheltenham.
I think there is every chance he'll underperform at Kempton after being trained so hard and running hard from the front at Haydock. Also Long Run will be fitter and seems to enjoy Kempton just as much as Kauto. Personally I've backed MM as I decided I would take on Long Run this season - very possible I'll be regretting this on Boxing Day! Finally it's possible Kauto is actually better than he was last year (I know that sounds strange, but he never seemed right). He finished off his race well at Haydock and given the same prep for the GC he might just get up that hill one last time. |
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I find it staggering Kauto Star might not go for the King George. He runs superbly at Kempton and I think the Haydock win should persuade connections to go out and make it as another round of jumping like that would make him seriousness difficult to get past.
It is clear however that Master Minded season has been mapped out to take in the King George as well and it would need a major rethink to re target him. I doubt connections will run both and suspect Kauto Star might not make it. They are already arming an excuse that needs more time to be at his best, which is faintly ridiculous given Haydock to Kempton has not previously been a problem! |
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Budd, I've just backed him too. I think 14/1 will seem very big on the day. Especially if they miss the KG I can see him being backed right in on the day.
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Finally it's possible Kauto is actually better than he was last year (I know that sounds strange, but he never seemed right). He finished off his race well at Haydock and given the same prep for the GC he might just get up that hill one last time.
That is a very very good point resnar and no better man than Nicholls to get them back. |
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Storm,
Previously he has used Haydock and Down Royal as part of his prep for the King George.This year he trained Kauto to peak fto at Haydock.He then showed them that he is still a force at this level,possibly surprising them,and i firmly belive they think he can run another big one at Cheltenham now,and want to give him every chance of achieving that.Running at Kempton would not be part of that,thats what i think is going through thier minds. |
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The owner hates running his horses against each other too. I remember watching an interview when he said that.
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Am I the only one who doesn't think Master Minded will stay three miles strongly enough to win a King George?
I'm another in the Somersby each/way camp. His two races at Ascot behind Master Minded over much shorter trips saw him finish the stronger of the pair on both occasions and I think he is crying out for the extra distance, whereas I see no evidence that Master Minded is. He was great at Aintree but lots of two-milers have won that race in the past and I feel it could be something of a red herring. Three miles in a King George takes plenty of getting, even if Kempton is perceived as being a speed track. All this said, it shouldn't dictate what Kauto does. If he's over his Haydock run he should run in my opinion, and if there's any doubt he should stay at home. Simples. |
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No you aint the only one,i have serious doubts on him staying 3m too.
It does seem though that they are determined to give it a go.Does add some interest to the race for sure. Another thing to think about is that last season Kauto ran better at Cheltenham than he did at Kempton,well thats what i thought anyway,so a fresher Kauto without Kempton may well see a better run next March. |
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kempton is known as a speed track but a theory ive heard a few times is you need to stay well as they start racing a long way from home..not sure if that is true but i really dont see mm staying well enough im in the somersby camp..didnt anticipate the peterboro though!!
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^ Me neither!
I'm not unduly worried about the race taking too much out of him, but I'm a little concerned that Hen will think it has taken too much out of him. If she passes up this opportunity I will officially lose it - the shape of this year's race must favour Somersby. Maybe he won't be good enough but he'll never get a better chance in my opinion with doubts over the front three in the market. |