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Hennessy GC?
Hennessy GC?
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How much rain is forecast ?
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ffs. Whats worse is a friend who knows him pretty well, actually spoke to him in person about both NP and Joncol and he mainatined they'd both most likely be running all the eay until a day or so before each time.
Pretty difficult to defend his quotes imo. Never, ever to be trusted again. |
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good call re Graham Lee sintonian
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Yep unlike Nolan you can rely on Sint to get it right! I took a hit on Noble Prince & Joncol but small stakes so there you go. Should have put it in Greek bonds only a 50%ish haircut there. Still have some 18-1 Wymott & 14-1 Michel Le Bon so all hope not lost. GL with Carruthers Sint brave call but could turn out to be shrewd?
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Backing Carruthers never fills one with confidence, Solving
 . We know he'll jump and run from the front, it just depends how many fences he hits.His handicap mark these days is very appealing. I do have a slight concern in that his last run was just 2 weeks ago over 28f, so there is a possibility this might be a week or two to soon. But we'll see.Interestingly, Noel Fehily rode him last time, but rides Michel Le Bon. I wonder if that is out of loyalty/connection to Nicholls or a tip in itself. gl |
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Carruthers has to be the value here for me at 20/1 - supposedly trainer never happy with his condition last year and must be well handicapped on past form. Not sure where this idea he has to have soft ground has come from. Trainer has quoted in the past that he doesnt mind good ground - he has won on it and ran one of his best races on it when second to What A Friend at Aintree.
More concerns would be only 2 weeks to get over a longer race at Cheltenham which cant be a perfect prep for this and competition for the lead from 1833 and Sarando (the latter may outjump them both?). Wymott may want to be in the van also but doesnt strike me as one who would like the competition |
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trainer and jock of Carruthers just had a winner at Uttoxeter
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Ive had some excellent touch s over the years in the Hennessy which has always been one of my favourite races of the year. The likes of one man, suny bay, jodami, chatam, teetan mill and strong flow have given me great runs....Looking at this years renewal it is clearly not the greatest of fields. My 2 against the field are WAYWARD PRINCE who fits my profile. A very good novice hurdler who took well to chases, showing good ability, jumping , stamina with a class of class- basically very solid form. If he were trained by nicholls or henderson he d be 5-1 imo and the type to grind it out , my main choice. I ll also take a small saver on micheal de bon. I had a decent bet on his only chase run which he won easily at this meeting last season and vowed to follow him . Its no secret that nicholls thinks he is gold cup class on pure ability. If he can handle the rough and tumble of the race on only his 2nd chase run he could be very interesting indeed.
Good luck all. |
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Final dig for me to go with Carruthers is .. Sarando. A few people on here have backed him already and I decided to bet him aswell. He has proven his health/fitness this season,will get the trip and jumps well in the main. You can watch he last run on sporting life website.
Intriguingly, Paul Webber was interviewed on RUK earlier and he used to train State of Play, the 2006 Hennessy winner, before selling him to Evan Williams!! Both horses have the same sire. gl and may the best beast win. |
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Has to be Wayward prince for me.
He's working well at home, his jumping has improved no end & Dougies back on board. |
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Got to go against you guys unfortunately! I'll be place laying Wayward Prince, place laid him in the RSA and he surprised me by finishing third, but I think it was a poor renewal and off 150 he'll struggle to place here. Similar profile to Weird Al leading up to the Hennessy last year, form before the RSA doesn't look fantastic, think he'll be suited to a bit further actually.
The win bet for me will be Planet of Sound/The Giant Bolster. Planet of Sound's had a breathing operation, explains why he emptied so quickly in the KG. Followed TGB for ages, backed him in RSA. Unseated at the first fence in the PPGC, willing to take one last chance at 20s with him being on a very reasonable hc mark. |
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^ Understand where you are coming from here, but Weird Al wasn't right all last season according to connections. He has been right all this season and his two runs would probably have been good enough for him to have at the least been in the mix in an average Hennessy.
I really like Wayward Prince but am just slightly concerned he will hit a flat spot and just find things happening that little bit too quickly for him. Can see him charging home for minor money. As the race approaches I do like Great Endeavour more and more - if he settles like he did at Cheltenham I think he'll stay and he's the one that looks best handicapped to me. |
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I have added Beshabar to my 2 now he is a runner.
I know he is fit but thght he would miss it. I think this relentless galloper could destroy the weaker horses here 12/1 is still massive and will be single figures poss pricewise imo |
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just took the 20-1 carruthers, can see this ending up 4/6 points shorter, other bet wayward prince 3.30 place only on here.
good luck one and all. |
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1833
Just taken 8/1 BOG at Hills. |
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I had 3 that interested me from a h/capping point of view - First Tulamore Dew who I didn't expect to make the race after he ran in the PP. But I've taken a small saver on him for this race as he is crying out for a trip. Sarando who won his race at Carlise so all the value went before I had chance to back it. Small bets at 25/1 and 20/1 - Was available at 60s prior to Carlise. The one I've backed for a large coup @ three figure odds is Qhilimar. I know it's 5lbs out of the h/cap but his last race where he was 2nd of 16 giving 2 stones away looked a good performance to me. If he had won he would have been more or less carrying 10 stone anyway. As he is always running on best of all over 2.6 - 3.0 miles I think 3.2 miles at a track he has won on before will be right up his street. So Qhilimar for me. 70s still available so lump on.
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my 3
michel le bon carruthers tula dew |
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Planet of Sound at 12s looks good value to me considering he is a genuine Grade 1 horse - off 11st2lb he looks reasonably treated in this which isnt a vintage Hennessy. Track and ground and the fact he races well fresh all positives, only negative is lack of a win at 3m+ but every chance on a flat track and on good ground.
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hope u r right derbyshire. am on quite large at 33's.
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having read Nicholls' comments regarding MLB I'm half tempted to back him. I had put a line through him as there were too many unknowns having been off the track for so long. But Nicholls seems to have a great deal of confidence and he could be anything.
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If you back MLB you're essentially guessing. This is a tough race to work out. MLB might win on the bridle and be a great horse (wouldn't Ruby be on him)? That would be good for racing. Not prepared to pay to find out though.
I'd fancy 1833, especially as he has course form, and he had a nice prep recently, but you'd have to forgive his flop in the RSA to be ablemto back him with confidence. Wayward Prince has a good profile, yet I for some reason have the idea he might be anearly horse that might find one better in the big races. GE has form in the book but will he stay? I can't see Wymott having the class. Beshabar is one that could jump round into a place, but I'd be surprised (and disappointed if he proved to be the best in the race). Quito de la Roque followers (I'm in the club) would be keen on seeing Sarando doing well, and I wouldn't rule this one out. Tough one to call, I'm looking forward to it, and just coming down on the side of 1833, mainly due to course form and a nice run behind Somersby last time out.. |
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Carruthers won't stay this far.
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number of runners(lengths beat),18(57),15(29),18(16),13(23),18(20), 14(23),13(60),carruthers just dosent run well in big fields
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Surprised there has been little mention of Muirhead. At 20/1 it will be Noel Meade's biggest price runner after Harbour Pilot 3rd at 11/1 in 2002 and Pandorama PU last year at 8/1. He doesn't send them over for the race that often but always sends them with a chance.
Muirhead was disputing favouritism at Ascot LTO but was carrying 11-8 and was giving nearly a stone to the well h'cpd winner. Off a racing weight today and with the pre-requisite 4 weeks to recover I would be very disappointed if this doesn't make the frame and with a bit of luck could nick it. 20/1 generally and first 5 with PP. GL |
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backed it at leminster,it should run well,
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CUTH
The reason I have backed Carruthers is his run in this race last year ....6th of 18 (yes beaten 20l) ,but for me this is evidence a big field is not a problem. For a horse that likes to lead/race up with the pace,a big field invariably means there is more competition at the front,and for me that is the issue here.If they are positive with him today I'm hoping it won't be a problem. |
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Trusty, I also like Muirhead. Won the Munster National doing handstands but got 15lbs for that win. Still though off a mark of 147 is still a lot lower than the 158 he achieved over hurdles. I think he was hampered mid-race the last day and Meade said that may have been the reason for the below par run. Also who was the last Irish horse placed in a Hennessy? Was it Harbour Pilot in 2002? Trained and ridden by whom?
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fair along will lead ,and put carruthers off
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everything is relative with Carruthers. The lengths beaten have to be compared to his handicap mark and the majority of the time it was the mid 150's. Today he is 146.
Double figure field stuff is also nonsense. His wins happen to be in small field races because most Novice chases rarely contain more than 5 runners. |
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If you look at his h'cap form in big fields, he has finished no worse than 6th, and all fields where 14-18 runners. These are good runs, races like the Badger Ales and Hennessy last year, both runs of siginificantly higher marks.
I have to say, the arguement he does not like big fields is poorly researched and lazy. If he gets beaten today it wont be because of the number of runners. 1833, for example, has never ran with more than 12 runners, and when he did he was pulled-up. But there is not enough evidence to be conclusive. |
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WYMOTT is very weak on here .. ground ?
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Tough tough race to call as the betting shows.
My feeling is that there are doubts about some of those at the top of the market ie GE,MLB and 1833,so therefore are too short. Could pick 10 and not get the winner. FWIW,i will have 2 against the field,Wayward Prince and Planet of Sound,but not punting with great confidence. |
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craputhers as won a 5 runner race on heavy ground - thats its sole hcp ch success.
its last 4 hcp finishers look to the lazy eye,that it runs ok.but it finnished 4th last last last 4th last its poor |
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Wayward and Great Endeavour are the two for me; hope Beshabar runs in nicely towards the end though with Aintree in mind.
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Beshabar running well might catch the attention of the handicapper, which would diminish his chances in the National perhaps?
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There's a lot of front runners in this race. Could be ran at a cut throat pace. I'm going for the stayers. Wayward Prince and Beshabar. Also a small saver on Tullamore Drew in case the trip brings about improvement as has been staying on over shorter distances.
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comingupthehillast, your sounding pretty clueless tbh mate. Whatever the outcome today, your analysis is all wrong. For starters, Carruthers has never won a handicap chase, and secondly, he has never finished last in one, so I really have no idea what you are talking about.
I completely understand why he would not float your boat as a bet, it actually worriers me, but off 146 and at 20/1 I see it as a fair bet. Please do us a favour and get your analysis correct if your going to go to town on the horse rather than just spouting shoite. thanks. |
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to provoke a reaction ,you ve got to have a bases of facts on your side,
last season,it ran in 4 races ,3 hcps,it came last at haydock(grand national trial)you would say it came 4th - but last is more accurate,it also came last in the gold cup. 90% of what i posted is accurate,seems your mistaken, if you need any help understanding all the different terminology ,just ask ,if i can help ,be happy to help. you posted ,clueless,wrong,no idea,spouting shoite, i did get its 1 sole win wrong - your right it wasnt an hcp, in small fields it runs to quite a high standard - but goes to pieces in big fields, my intial hunch,quick glance at its form - was a pretty good assessment |
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well done sint - looks like i was wrong,your interpretation worked out,
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GGEEEETTTT IIIINNNNNNNNN
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