Horse Antepost
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Well after last year's effort i thought I ought to inflict another old man's shot at the Ebor declarations. Of course they cannot all win Like Dirar did.
Last year I offered 2 selection Dirar and one of Sir mark P's that proved pretty useless.
Sir Mark has another possible this year but i cannot take to this and for me there are 4 strongish chances. This year's Ebor looks poorer than usual to me with fewer probable improvers than usual.
In no particular order I like the following:
Quest For Peace: possibly the only 3yo witha chance of getting into the weights and seems to me to be the one Aiden is targeting. Al ready pretty good he is unexposed, and open to huge improvement for the step up in trip.
Mount Athos is a boring but pretty obvious selection based on his running he is desperate for a step up, looks very well handicapped.
Modun is a bit more speculative and the selection of this is on the basis of his breeding that shouts "stayer" pretty loudly. He has the scope to be miles ahead of his handicap mark.
finally Saptapadi looks to be a similar sort to Modun with good form and with the possibility of stepping up considerably on his form to date.
I like all 4 of these and would not be surprised if the forecast for the Ebor is not contained within these selections. They are the only 4 in the race than can win imo.
Last year I offered 2 selection Dirar and one of Sir mark P's that proved pretty useless.
Sir Mark has another possible this year but i cannot take to this and for me there are 4 strongish chances. This year's Ebor looks poorer than usual to me with fewer probable improvers than usual.
In no particular order I like the following:
Quest For Peace: possibly the only 3yo witha chance of getting into the weights and seems to me to be the one Aiden is targeting. Al ready pretty good he is unexposed, and open to huge improvement for the step up in trip.
Mount Athos is a boring but pretty obvious selection based on his running he is desperate for a step up, looks very well handicapped.
Modun is a bit more speculative and the selection of this is on the basis of his breeding that shouts "stayer" pretty loudly. He has the scope to be miles ahead of his handicap mark.
finally Saptapadi looks to be a similar sort to Modun with good form and with the possibility of stepping up considerably on his form to date.
I like all 4 of these and would not be surprised if the forecast for the Ebor is not contained within these selections. They are the only 4 in the race than can win imo.
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Hi - 4 horses mentioned are all in the first 6 in the betting - but i suppose a winner is a winner?
i will wait until thursday(pricewise tipping on this race on that day) think he might go for AOBs Quest For Peace |
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On a Saturday, f88k them
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A nice aftertime once again CRy.
 gl with your selections this time around. |
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Mount Athos is a worthy favourite . Physically he looks a significantly improved horse this year and has
been blighted by poor Draws and the wrong distance in his last 2 runs. He's a CD winner and this looks the perfect race for him. 10/1 is a fairly decent price. Having backed modun heavily in the Magnet cup I think 1 1/4m is his best trip and if Green Destiny hadn't have run he'd have been an impressive winner. I don't think he'll stay. The AOB runners are too difficult for me to assess. Tactian had a soft lead last time and is under priced. Fox hunt is a real gutsy horse and has some similarities to Johnsons other Ebor winner Quick Ransom. |
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Hard to argue against any of that tinkler
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blissful,zuider zee,apache
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I have a feeling that Quest for Peace will be aimed at Group races for the rest of the Season rather than handicaps, imo that makes far more sense from a breeding point of view.
I have had a small bet on Appache as I feel he may be O'Briens only runner, pretty similar credentials to the stables previous winner Mediterraneum and 20/1 seems fair to me. Also had a dabbble on Ted Spread. He seems revitalised this Season after a gelding op and though he will be high in the weights, he looks like a future Cup horse to me. Mount Athos and Fox Hunt would be the two I fancy most at the head of the betting. |
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Fine effort today by Saptapadi at the weights.
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What sort of OR will be needed to get in at the bottom?
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Only 20 allowed to run, so it isn't going to be well down the ratings, RAVE has picked up a double penalty for the Golden Mile on
Friday, but has as much chance of getting in as I have and I am not entered. The penalty for a win is 4lbs in the Ebor, two wins is 7lbs after 16th July. |
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To guarantee a run at this stage you need a horse with an OR more than 100.
If you go on the racing post website, press on cards ,then press on big race enteries and scroll down to the ebor, you'll be able to see it all for yourself. |
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come tinkler - your re cleverer than that - 94/95 will be the cut off point
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32 horses rated above 100 , and 20 runner max.
I don't know how many will pull out but I suppose history shows 94/95 will probably be the cut off . |
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I can't see it being 94/95 cut off, only 20 allowed to run for safety reasons and already one horse has picked up a penalty and that was at 27.
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The race is Quite a long time off ,theres plenty of time for horses to drop out.
It's not easy to predict what trainers intentions are though. |
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Only 4 weeks.
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Horse number 34 has picked up a penalty today.
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What is the penalty for said horse? ^^^
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I refer you to my post of 24 July 13.15.
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The 3yo's will struggle to get in as they have to receive 12lbs from 4yo upwards.
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Hi Tinker
Well Saptapdi stays well enough and he is by Indian Ridge - Timeform say he stays 16.5 furlongs so 14 should be perfect. Modun is by Kings Best (more of an influence for stamina than Indian Ridge). Saptapadi is a full brother to Patkai who stayed 2 miles very well indeed; so Modun is a more stoutly bred half brother to Patkai. Modun already stays 12 furlongs very well (as in his second at Kempton last October). The thing about the Ebor is that you are looking for a horse that is capable of running a deal better than their handicap mark. This means that you need either as very unexposed sort, with bags of scope for improvement, or a horse stepping up in trip and likely to appreciate the step up. Modun seems to me to be highly likely not just to get the extra trip (albeit a trip only 2 furlongs further than he already clearly stays) but very likely indeed to improve a deal on anything he's done at shorter distances. of course Tinker you may well be right and he ends up not staying, but I think the odds available and the chances of him staying are incorrect and he should be vying for favouritism. |
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Hi Cryoftruth,
i don't understand breeding lines too well. In modun's kempton run he was in the lead and then got caught late on so i don't think it showed he stayed 1 1/2m conclusively. The thing about Modun though is that he's loaded with ability, far more than anything else in the field and it could just be that he's that good he's able to mix it in the top 1 1/4m handicaps despite actually needing 1 3/4m to realise his full potential. If it was obvious I suppose you wouldn't get a price so you have to use interpretation. The other positive with Modun is the weight he's got, Fox hunt ran real well today but there is little chance of hin winning off 9-10. after what you've said about thhe breeding as well I'm going to back him again and am beginning to get the vibe he could win it easily. I cann't back him ante post as I don't know if they intend to run. Its difficult to get information out of the trainer about his intentions. If anyone finds out information whether they intend to run , it would be much appreciated. |
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Good luck Tinkler
I have had around £25 at 18/1 on here and for an ante post dabble that will certainly do. I have backed Saptapadi with the bookies at 16/1 and Tominator at 20/1. I have also backed Mount Athos at 20/1 and Quest For Peace at 16/1 This is a sign of my confidence. I always go to watch the Ebor and tend to have most of the field covered before the start of August. I always try not to go mad and end up - well - going mad. |
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Out of interest, when was Mount Athos 20/1?
I can only remember him opening up as the antepost favourite at around the price he is now about 3 weeks ago.... could be wrong though. |
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Never been 20/1 on here or with the books.
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Would I be right in thinking Bourne needs to win tomorrow at Donny to get in?
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From what i gather ,yes TM.
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Bourne currently 69 in list of runners currently off 90 OR.
Bazaar says.. "The penalty for a win is 4lbs in the Ebor, two wins is 7lbs after 16th July". Having checked that it is confirmed in conditions. He will need two wins to stand a chance of getting in. I wondered why they were dropping it back in distance tomorrow after a good run over 12f. Then again even it if wins it has yet to prove it will get 14f. |
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TD gunner
apologies, my 20/1 was sadly a fiction, I took 11/1 with 365 |
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sir to in the post today says modun and satapadi not certain to stay,well ,tomorrow is certain to be monday as the world might end ,which is easily got more chance of happening than these 2 grand national hopefuls of not stayinng
modun and sap are out of olympienne shem had 3 foals who raced,modun and sap and another 1, this other one - won queens vase 2miles at ascot,then just to make sure it ran yeats to 2l in ascot gold cup2m4f. thats just the begining olmpieene is bred by darshaan12f and salders wells 12f, olmpienne mun was hellenic now we move up a level - she had 8 foals a whos who of staying flat horses thay won 29 raqces between them - most of them group 1 s ranging from 12f to 20f . 10 of those wins were at york in g1 s if you were trying to win a ebor ,juddmonte,dante you wouldnt dream of having this kind of breeding as it would be too far fetched. |
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sir tom sorry
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Rock A Doodle Doo is crying out for a true run 1m 6f and may just get in.
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Fallon rides Saptapadi.
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the way class is class won on sat makes me even more confident KING FALLON will win the ebor on SAPTAPADI took 8s.............
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theres only me who hasnt backed it
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You get the pot and the glory, koo. No second thoughts now. Best of luck
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Saptapadi has only won one race - 12f maiden.
You would have to go beyond 1983 at least to find a horse older than 3yo that won Ebor with just a maiden win to its credit (Clerkenwell 3yo). Glistening just failed by a short head 2006 though. Also I'm not keen on horses that have a change of trainer to win these high class hcps Purple Moon and Sarawat are two exceptions. The former went from Michael Stoute to Nicky Richards for hurdling then came back to Luca Cumani to win Ebor. Sarawat was with Mrs Reveley after bought out a claimer as 3yo at end of season. It remained with Reveley until at least a month before the Ebor but ran under Reg Akehurst. Not sure what the arrangements were. Either way Reveley had it for best part of two years which seems about acceptable as Les Eyre, Jane Chappel-Hyam and Gordon Elliot all had the Ebor winner in their care for similar time. Rod Millman had Sergeant Cecil for 4 years previous to his Ebor win. I've gone back as far as Another Sam and Richard Hannon (1982), and all the other 4yo and 5yo winners since then (apart from above mentioned) were with the same trainer throughout up to their Ebor win. So this may raise a concern against Saptapadi who has been with Brian Ellison less than a year (and also Mount Athos). On the other hand Michael Stoute could have let another Ebor winner slip away. Another concern is the fact that the majority of Saptapadi's races have been at Group level (7-11) and this is not the normal. You see the odd Ebor winner with a group race run but not many. One could argue that Halicarnassus had much Group form when it won Borough Hcp at Haydock, but that was a 7yo on a downward curve that had rarely ran, and never won a handicap (in UK). It had, though, run well in better class handicaps on its run up to Haydock race. So Koo might not have backed Saptapadi for obvious reasoning. The good point is that Brian Ellison is a great trainer and probably about the best for training older horses so given time I'm sure the purchase wil pay dividends. |
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Ballydoyle
Looks like Regent Street is the only one that will get in. |
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I was impressed with Tactician's win last time out. If allowed a soft lead could go in again.
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