Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
cryoftruth
17 Jul 11 20:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 11,180 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Well after last year's effort i thought I ought to inflict another old man's shot at the Ebor declarations. Of course they cannot all win Like Dirar did.

Last year I offered 2 selection Dirar and one of Sir mark P's that proved pretty useless.

Sir Mark has another possible this year but i cannot take to this and for me there are 4 strongish chances. This year's Ebor looks poorer than usual to me with fewer probable improvers than usual.

In no particular order I like the following:

Quest For Peace: possibly the only 3yo witha  chance of getting into the weights and seems to me to be the one Aiden is targeting. Al ready pretty good he is unexposed, and open to huge improvement for the step up in trip.

Mount Athos is a boring but pretty obvious selection based on his running he is desperate for a step up, looks very well handicapped.

Modun is a bit more speculative and the selection of this is on the basis of his breeding that shouts "stayer" pretty loudly. He has the scope to be miles ahead of his handicap mark.

finally Saptapadi looks to be a similar sort to Modun with good form and with the possibility of stepping up considerably on his form to date.

I like all 4 of these and would not be surprised if the forecast for the Ebor is not contained within these selections. They are the only 4 in the race than can win imo.
Show More
Loading...
Report frankie57 July 17, 2011 9:46 PM BST
Hi - 4 horses mentioned are all in the first 6 in the betting - but i suppose a winner is a winner?
i will wait until thursday(pricewise tipping on this race on that day)
think he might go for AOBs Quest For Peace
Report johnn July 18, 2011 7:55 AM BST
On a Saturday, f88k them Cry
Report sintonian July 18, 2011 9:16 AM BST
A nice aftertime once again CRy.Laugh
gl with your selections this time around.
Report tinkler July 18, 2011 10:21 AM BST
Mount Athos is a worthy favourite  . Physically he looks a significantly improved horse this year and has
been blighted by poor Draws and the wrong distance in his last 2 runs.
He's a CD winner and this looks the perfect race for him. 10/1 is a fairly decent price.
Having backed modun heavily in the Magnet cup I think 1 1/4m is his best trip and if Green Destiny hadn't
have run he'd have been an impressive winner. I don't think he'll stay.
The AOB runners are too difficult for me to assess.
Tactian had a soft lead last time and is under priced.
Fox hunt is a real gutsy horse and has some similarities to Johnsons other Ebor winner Quick Ransom.
Report apieceofcake July 18, 2011 6:02 PM BST
Hard to argue against any of that tinkler
Report comingupthehill July 18, 2011 10:55 PM BST
blissful,zuider zee,apache
Report apieceofcake July 19, 2011 5:51 PM BST
I have a feeling that Quest for Peace will be aimed at Group races for the rest of the Season rather than handicaps, imo that makes far more sense from a breeding point of view.

I have had a small bet on Appache as I feel he may be O'Briens only runner, pretty similar credentials to the stables previous winner Mediterraneum and 20/1 seems fair to me.

Also had a dabbble on Ted Spread. He seems revitalised this Season after a gelding op and though he will be high in the weights, he looks like a future Cup horse to me.

Mount Athos and Fox Hunt would be the two I fancy most at the head of the betting.
Report Augustine July 24, 2011 12:01 AM BST
Fine effort today by Saptapadi at the weights.
Report town moor July 24, 2011 12:02 PM BST
What sort of OR will be needed to get in at the bottom?
Report bazzar July 24, 2011 1:15 PM BST
Only 20 allowed to run, so it isn't going to be well down the ratings, RAVE has picked up a double penalty for the Golden Mile on
Friday, but has as much chance of getting in as I have and I am not entered.
The penalty for a win is 4lbs in the Ebor, two wins is 7lbs after
16th July.
Report tinkler July 24, 2011 6:51 PM BST
To guarantee a run at this stage you need a horse with an OR more than 100.
If you go on the racing post website, press on cards ,then press on big race enteries and scroll down to
the ebor, you'll be able to see it all for yourself.
Report comingupthehill July 24, 2011 6:56 PM BST
come tinkler - your re cleverer than that - 94/95 will be the cut off point
Report tinkler July 24, 2011 7:07 PM BST
32 horses rated above 100 , and 20 runner max.
I don't know how many will pull out but I suppose history shows 94/95 will probably be the cut off .
Report bazzar July 24, 2011 7:58 PM BST
I can't see it being 94/95 cut off, only 20 allowed to run for safety reasons and already one horse has picked up a penalty and that was at 27.
Report tinkler July 24, 2011 8:24 PM BST
The race is Quite a long time off ,theres plenty of time for horses to drop out.
It's not easy to predict what trainers intentions are though.
Report bazzar July 24, 2011 8:31 PM BST
Only 4 weeks.
Report bazzar July 24, 2011 8:46 PM BST
Horse number 34 has picked up a penalty today.
Report Giant Strides July 25, 2011 8:15 AM BST
What is the penalty for said horse? ^^^
Report bazzar July 25, 2011 11:10 AM BST
I refer you to my post of 24 July 13.15.
Report bazzar July 25, 2011 12:09 PM BST
The 3yo's will struggle to get in as they have to receive 12lbs from 4yo upwards.
Report cryoftruth July 28, 2011 12:41 PM BST
Hi Tinker

Well Saptapdi stays well enough and he is by Indian Ridge -  Timeform say he stays 16.5 furlongs so 14 should be perfect.

Modun is by Kings Best (more of an influence for stamina than Indian Ridge).

Saptapadi is a full brother to Patkai who stayed 2 miles very well indeed; so Modun is a more stoutly bred half brother to Patkai.

Modun already stays 12 furlongs very well (as in his second at Kempton last October).

The thing about the Ebor is that you are looking for a horse that is capable of running a deal better than their handicap mark. This means that you need either as very unexposed sort, with bags of scope for improvement, or a horse stepping up in trip and likely to appreciate the step up.

Modun seems to me to be highly likely not just to get the extra trip (albeit a trip only 2 furlongs further than  he already clearly stays) but very likely indeed to improve a deal on anything he's done at shorter distances. of course

Tinker you may well be right and he ends up not staying, but I think the odds available and the chances of him staying are incorrect and he should be vying for favouritism.
Report tinkler July 28, 2011 3:58 PM BST
Hi Cryoftruth,
i don't understand breeding lines too well. In modun's kempton run he was in the lead and then got caught
late on so i don't think it showed he stayed 1 1/2m conclusively.
The thing about Modun though is that he's loaded with ability, far more than anything else in the field and
it could just be that he's that good he's able to mix it in the top 1 1/4m handicaps despite actually
needing 1 3/4m to realise his full potential.  If it was obvious I suppose you wouldn't get a price so you
have to use interpretation. The other positive with Modun is the weight he's got, Fox hunt ran real well today
but there is little chance of hin winning off 9-10.
after what you've said about thhe breeding as well I'm going to back him again and am beginning to get
the vibe he could win it easily. I cann't back him ante post as I don't know if they intend to run.
Its difficult to get information out of the trainer about his intentions. If anyone finds out information
whether they intend to run , it would be much appreciated.
Report cryoftruth July 28, 2011 6:46 PM BST
Good luck Tinkler

I have had around £25 at 18/1 on here and for an ante post dabble that will certainly do.

I have backed Saptapadi with the bookies at 16/1 and Tominator at 20/1.

I have also backed Mount Athos at 20/1 and  Quest For Peace at 16/1

This is a sign of my confidence.
I always go to watch the Ebor and tend to have most of the field covered before the start of August.

I always try not to go mad and end up - well - going mad.
Report TD_Gunner July 28, 2011 10:52 PM BST
Out of interest, when was Mount Athos 20/1?

I can only remember him opening up as the antepost favourite at around the price he is now about 3 weeks ago.... could be wrong though.
Report turnip turns July 29, 2011 10:12 AM BST
Never been 20/1 on here or with the books.
Report town moor July 29, 2011 6:32 PM BST
Would I be right in thinking Bourne needs to win tomorrow at Donny to get in?
Report turnip turns July 29, 2011 6:41 PM BST
From what i gather ,yes TM.
Report Pinza July 29, 2011 6:57 PM BST
Bourne currently 69 in list of runners currently off 90 OR.

Bazaar says..
"The penalty for a win is 4lbs in the Ebor, two wins is 7lbs after
16th July".
Having checked that it is confirmed in conditions.

He will need two wins to stand a chance of getting in.
I wondered why they were dropping it back in distance tomorrow after a good run over 12f.
Then again even it if wins it has yet to prove it will get 14f.
Report cryoftruth July 30, 2011 9:23 PM BST
TD gunner

apologies, my 20/1 was sadly a fiction, I took 11/1 with 365
Report comingupthehill July 31, 2011 6:28 AM BST
sir to in the post today says modun and satapadi not certain to stay,well ,tomorrow is certain to be monday as the world might end ,which is easily got more chance of happening than these 2 grand national hopefuls of not stayinng

modun and sap are out of olympienne

shem had 3 foals who raced,modun and sap and another 1,
this other one - won queens vase 2miles at ascot,then just to make sure it ran yeats to 2l in ascot gold cup2m4f.

thats just the begining
olmpieene is bred by darshaan12f and salders wells 12f,

olmpienne mun was hellenic

now we move up a level - she had 8 foals

a whos who of staying flat horses thay won 29 raqces between them - most of them group 1 s ranging from 12f to 20f .


10 of those wins were at york in g1 s


if you were trying to win a ebor ,juddmonte,dante

you wouldnt dream of having this kind of breeding as it would be too far fetched.
Report comingupthehill July 31, 2011 6:28 AM BST
sir tom sorry
Report aft July 31, 2011 6:45 AM BST
Rock A Doodle Doo is crying out for a true run 1m 6f and may just get in.
Report Augustine August 1, 2011 7:16 PM BST
Fallon rides Saptapadi.
Report cammy glasgow August 7, 2011 10:45 PM BST
the way class is class won on sat makes me even more confident KING FALLON will win the ebor on SAPTAPADI took 8s.............Cool
Report Koo.... August 8, 2011 12:47 AM BST
theres only me who hasnt backed it Cry
Report saddo August 8, 2011 10:01 AM BST
You get the pot and the glory, koo. No second thoughts now. Best of luck
Report Pinza August 12, 2011 4:45 PM BST
Saptapadi has only won one race - 12f maiden.

You would have to go beyond 1983 at least to find a horse older than 3yo that won Ebor with just a maiden win to its credit (Clerkenwell 3yo). Glistening just failed by a short head 2006 though.

Also I'm not keen on horses that have a change of trainer to win these high class hcps
Purple Moon and Sarawat are two exceptions.

The former went from Michael Stoute to Nicky Richards for hurdling then came back to Luca Cumani to win Ebor. Sarawat was with Mrs Reveley after bought out a claimer as 3yo at end of season. It remained with Reveley until at least a month before the Ebor but ran under Reg Akehurst. Not sure what the arrangements were.

Either way Reveley had it for best part of two years which seems about acceptable as Les Eyre, Jane Chappel-Hyam and Gordon Elliot all had the Ebor winner in their care for similar time.

Rod Millman had Sergeant Cecil for 4 years previous to his Ebor win.

I've gone back as far as Another Sam and Richard Hannon (1982), and all the other 4yo and 5yo winners since then (apart from above mentioned) were with the same trainer throughout up to their Ebor win.

So this may raise a concern against Saptapadi who has been with Brian Ellison less than a year (and also Mount Athos). On the other hand Michael Stoute could have let another Ebor winner slip away.

Another concern is the fact that the majority of Saptapadi's races have been at Group level (7-11) and this is not the normal. You see the odd Ebor winner with a group race run but not many.

One could argue that Halicarnassus had much Group form when it won Borough Hcp at Haydock, but that was a 7yo on a downward curve that had rarely ran, and never won a handicap (in UK). It had, though, run well in better class handicaps on its run up to Haydock race.

So Koo might not have backed Saptapadi for obvious reasoning.
The good point is that Brian Ellison is a great trainer and probably about the best for training older horses so given time I'm sure the purchase wil pay dividends.
Report El Apache August 14, 2011 12:45 PM BST
Ballydoyle

Looks like Regent Street is the only one that will get in.
Report Facts August 14, 2011 2:14 PM BST
I was impressed with Tactician's win last time out. If allowed a soft lead could go in again.
Report Dark Destroyer August 15, 2011 11:10 AM BST
At this stage the race has a decent each way shape with Fred and Son of Fred offering 5 places plus the usual shape-out tomorrow after the 5 day decs.

I agree with much that has been said about Mount Athos and the pin has landed on him at 14/1 on the above terms.
Report Dark Destroyer August 15, 2011 11:10 AM BST
shake out Laugh
Report tinkler August 16, 2011 11:16 AM BST
Do they intend to run modun? Who will ride him?
Report Michrich August 16, 2011 1:13 PM BST
What do people think to the chances of Harlestone Times? Won at Goodwood in May and was then favourite for the Northumberland Plate and appeared not to last out the strongly run 2 miles and then last time out was favourite for the Summer Stakes and although not appearing to be hampered he was at the back when the incident that injured Ryan Moore took place and he then appeared to finish strongly.

John Dunlop has a decent record at this meeting and I think he has a good chance.
Report johnnyrant August 16, 2011 3:02 PM BST
Tominator for me. Had no chance whatsoever l.t.o. at York, held up at the back of the field, and no pace in the race. Did well to get as close as he did.
Report Figgis August 16, 2011 3:26 PM BST
I strongly fancy Modun. Apart from his Ascot blip he has made small leaps of improvement with every run. His latest form gives him every chance and I think he can still improve a bit more. I can't see the trip being a problem as he looks every inch a strong stayer. If he wasn't a runner I wouldn't be betting in the race as nothing else appeals.
Report la mallatiere August 16, 2011 3:28 PM BST
Think ground might go against Modun unless it dries up more.
Report Figgis August 16, 2011 3:36 PM BST
Yeah I suppose as his only run on soft was that woeful effort at Ascot, I dunno though, I just think he can't have been quite right that day anyway. Hopefully the ground won't be too soft.
Report la mallatiere August 16, 2011 3:39 PM BST
hopefully it will dry up as like him myself. Sure trip will be ok as you say.
Report Rod Tidwell August 16, 2011 4:49 PM BST
Good luck to Koo and his horse but I think all of the ante post money for Saptopadi has deflected the attention from Ellison's other runner, Moyenne Corniche, who looks to have been aimed at this race since his eyecatching performance in the Pitmans Derby. He looked all over the winner there but the trip just did him and a strongly run Ebor looks ideal - 11lbs better off with Tominator plus a decent 3lb to claim form Dale Swift. 25/1 will do for me and fingers then crossed for a decent draw to cement the value.
Report Pinza August 16, 2011 11:44 PM BST
The question about Modun is his lack of experience with fewer runs than any 4yo+ winner since 1982 and maybe further back.

Another concern is that he has never ran beyond 12f and not won further than 10f.
Arlequinn who beat him on latest run is a decent horse but no world beater.

They say he will stay further, and he might, but yet to prove it.

Has similarities with Vicious Circle (1999) who is the only 3yo+ runner since 1982 who never won further than 10f.
Report Figgis August 17, 2011 9:39 AM BST
Having gone back on his form, I've gone right off backing Modun anyway. I found I overrated his York run and I think he probably peaked last time, I'm not sure he'll be in the same form even if he does stay. This race is far too difficult for me, I'll leave it to you lads.
Report sintonian August 17, 2011 4:03 PM BST
Rod, agree with you re Moyenne Corniche. Travelled very well at Newcastle before stamina ebbed away.

Just waiting to see if he is declared as if it gets to quick he might not run..
Report Dark Destroyer August 18, 2011 7:16 AM BST
A worrying few hours ahead for Mount Athos backers Plain
Report bristoldoug August 18, 2011 8:32 AM BST
Care to enlighten us Dark Destroyer? Are we talking the ground here - as I know he won't like anything with soft in it? Or has he had an injury scare?
Report Dark Destroyer August 18, 2011 9:08 AM BST
Didn't mean to be mysterious!

It's just that there has been nothing lined up to back him for the last day or so, also the fact that he was left in the Lonsdale at the 5 day stage. Hope I'm wrong.
Report johnnyrant August 18, 2011 11:00 AM BST
Tominator N.R. Cry
Report la mallatiere August 18, 2011 11:16 AM BST
DD
Mount Athos is in
Report turnip turns August 18, 2011 11:27 AM BST
Tominator, Activate and Zuider Zee have not made the cut for Saturday's Betfred Ebor Handicap at York.

However leading fancies Lost In The Moment, Tacitician, Modun and Saptapadi are all in the 20-strong field.

Hillview Boy, Sirvino and Blissful Moment sneak in at the bottom of the handicap, whilst the weights are headed by Mark Johnston's Fox Hunt.

Mystery Star and Right Step are the two reserves for the feature race, which will be run on a Saturday for the first time
Report johnnyrant August 18, 2011 11:29 AM BST
Does that mean money back on Tominator as he was ballotted out?
Report la mallatiere August 18, 2011 11:37 AM BST
Yes ^
Report Dark Destroyer August 18, 2011 12:37 PM BST
Cheers L M Cool
Report turnip turns August 18, 2011 1:09 PM BST
1 Invetissement
2 Modun
3 Montaff
4 Harlestone Times
5 Cill Rialaig
6 Nanton
7 Hillview Boy
8 Salute Him
9 Neeham
10 Moyen Corniche
11 Blissful Moment
12 Ted Spread
13 Fox Hunt
14 Right Step  Res
15 Sirvino
16 Vulcanite
17 Mystery Star  Res
18 Mount Athos
19 Halicarnassus
20 Tactician
21 Lost in the Moment
22 Saptapadi
Report Facts August 18, 2011 1:25 PM BST
Nice draw for Tactician
Report tinkler August 18, 2011 1:56 PM BST
This isn't a particularly competitive Ebor and won't take a massive amount of winning.
Satapadi is a poor favourite who I don't think will stay and is a bit of a placer. His only win was when 2/7.
Lost in the moment is rock solid and should run well
Tactician had a soft lead last time. This is not a front runners race.
Fox Hunt is a great little handicapper but 9-10 is a stopping weight in a race like this.
Modun has a great chance . His form is excellent. Would have been a very decisive magnet Cup winner without
the highly impressive Green Destiny in the race. Looked in great shape at Goodwood where he finished full
of running, the winner Arlequin franked the form yesterday. He has an excellent weight and ideal jockey
on. I'm no breeding expert but a few have pointed out he's bred to stay. Could well win comfortably.
Mount Athos has C/d form and hasn't had the rub of the green this year and if Modun doesn't stay he has
every chance of winning.
Report Koo.... August 19, 2011 9:56 AM BST
so saptapadi wont stay but his half brother will becaause of his breeding !!!
Report zilzal1 August 19, 2011 10:18 AM BST
LOL, Tinker must have missed the Henry at Sandown over 2 miles with a stiff uphill finish


The Stable could have the 1-2, im slinging Saptapadi to finish 1st or second with Moyenne/Modun/Blissful in tricasts

Mount Athos will have to wait until Oct for a big prize imoCool
Report SOULDANCER August 19, 2011 10:56 AM BST
Sirvino and Hillview Boy, two old favs for me. Hillview Boy, may not stay this far, but 50-1 ldbrk is big, e.w. Can be layed on here 46.0, Softer the better, Sirvino will like a bit of cut too.  s
Report Koo.... August 19, 2011 11:01 AM BST
Novice hurdle at Cheltenham zilzal ??
Report zilzal1 August 19, 2011 11:37 AM BST
If the ground was decent id fancy him to win the Ces Koo
Report tinkler August 19, 2011 12:53 PM BST
Satapadi has had his chances at longer distances than 1 1/4m and apart from the slow paced sandown race has failed. He looks a 1 1/4m horse and has a totally different physic to modun. a fast paced 1 3/4m race is likely
to bust him, carrying  9-5 is another negative.
Report zilzal1 August 19, 2011 12:59 PM BST
I dont think that the Geoffrey Freer could be judged as a failure
Report Facts August 19, 2011 5:29 PM BST
Still happy with Tactician - and M.Bell is in top class form - which helps !
Report pipedreamer August 20, 2011 1:08 AM BST
Moduns run at Goodwood?,i'll just say two words,follow it and you can spot for yourselves what chance he has,youll have to look at the other handicap races at Goodwood to spot it,and those words are,WIDE,OUTSIDE!!!.
Moyenne Corniche?,six years old and ONE maiden win to date!!!,Hillview Boy,well long in the tooth,tho hes gone up 18 pound since,check out his Donny win,virtually took off!!!!
Saptadi?,percentage wise,how many horses win when stepping down from Group or listed class,into  handicaps?.
Report sintonian August 20, 2011 9:28 AM BST
I've backed Tactician (excellent course form) and Saptapadi for obvious reasons and those listed on here.
Report sintonian August 20, 2011 9:29 AM BST
good luck Koo and Co. Hope he does the bizzo! [:D]
Report Figgis August 20, 2011 3:58 PM BST
Rod Tidwell Joined: 27 Aug 01
Replies: 667 16 Aug 11 16:49   

Good luck to Koo and his horse but I think all of the ante post money for Saptopadi has deflected the attention from Ellison's other runner, Moyenne Corniche, who looks to have been aimed at this race since his eyecatching performance in the Pitmans Derby. He looked all over the winner there but the trip just did him and a strongly run Ebor looks ideal - 11lbs better off with Tominator plus a decent 3lb to claim form Dale Swift. 25/1 will do for me and fingers then crossed for a decent draw to cement the value.


Excellent call!
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby August 20, 2011 4:11 PM BST
VWD Rod
Report Facts August 20, 2011 4:16 PM BST
Yeh, wd Rod Sad
Report Rod Tidwell August 20, 2011 4:39 PM BST
cheers chaps....a lot of leaping around in the Tidwell house today :)
Report Facts August 20, 2011 5:49 PM BST
Tacticians saddle slipped 5f out( according to RPost). Probably cost him the race imo.
Report manyana August 20, 2011 6:11 PM BST
rod read your post and had a small ew...many thanks wd.
Report Pinza August 21, 2011 4:50 PM BST
Well done Rod.
Also picked by Mr Moloko.

Note the Ellison tactic with a drop to 10f after the Plate (16f) which managed a further pound drop in weight from a race he could never win.

He's pretty good with the older handicappers though.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com