Horse Antepost
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The Ebor
The Ebor
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At this stage the race has a decent each way shape with Fred and Son of Fred offering 5 places plus the usual shape-out tomorrow after the 5 day decs.
I agree with much that has been said about Mount Athos and the pin has landed on him at 14/1 on the above terms. |
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shake out
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Do they intend to run modun? Who will ride him?
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What do people think to the chances of Harlestone Times? Won at Goodwood in May and was then favourite for the Northumberland Plate and appeared not to last out the strongly run 2 miles and then last time out was favourite for the Summer Stakes and although not appearing to be hampered he was at the back when the incident that injured Ryan Moore took place and he then appeared to finish strongly.
John Dunlop has a decent record at this meeting and I think he has a good chance. |
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Tominator for me. Had no chance whatsoever l.t.o. at York, held up at the back of the field, and no pace in the race. Did well to get as close as he did.
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I strongly fancy Modun. Apart from his Ascot blip he has made small leaps of improvement with every run. His latest form gives him every chance and I think he can still improve a bit more. I can't see the trip being a problem as he looks every inch a strong stayer. If he wasn't a runner I wouldn't be betting in the race as nothing else appeals.
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Think ground might go against Modun unless it dries up more.
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Yeah I suppose as his only run on soft was that woeful effort at Ascot, I dunno though, I just think he can't have been quite right that day anyway. Hopefully the ground won't be too soft.
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hopefully it will dry up as like him myself. Sure trip will be ok as you say.
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Good luck to Koo and his horse but I think all of the ante post money for Saptopadi has deflected the attention from Ellison's other runner, Moyenne Corniche, who looks to have been aimed at this race since his eyecatching performance in the Pitmans Derby. He looked all over the winner there but the trip just did him and a strongly run Ebor looks ideal - 11lbs better off with Tominator plus a decent 3lb to claim form Dale Swift. 25/1 will do for me and fingers then crossed for a decent draw to cement the value.
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The question about Modun is his lack of experience with fewer runs than any 4yo+ winner since 1982 and maybe further back.
Another concern is that he has never ran beyond 12f and not won further than 10f. Arlequinn who beat him on latest run is a decent horse but no world beater. They say he will stay further, and he might, but yet to prove it. Has similarities with Vicious Circle (1999) who is the only 3yo+ runner since 1982 who never won further than 10f. |
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Having gone back on his form, I've gone right off backing Modun anyway. I found I overrated his York run and I think he probably peaked last time, I'm not sure he'll be in the same form even if he does stay. This race is far too difficult for me, I'll leave it to you lads.
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Rod, agree with you re Moyenne Corniche. Travelled very well at Newcastle before stamina ebbed away.
Just waiting to see if he is declared as if it gets to quick he might not run.. |
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A worrying few hours ahead for Mount Athos backers
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Care to enlighten us Dark Destroyer? Are we talking the ground here - as I know he won't like anything with soft in it? Or has he had an injury scare?
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Didn't mean to be mysterious!
It's just that there has been nothing lined up to back him for the last day or so, also the fact that he was left in the Lonsdale at the 5 day stage. Hope I'm wrong. |
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Tominator N.R.
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DD
Mount Athos is in |
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Tominator, Activate and Zuider Zee have not made the cut for Saturday's Betfred Ebor Handicap at York.
However leading fancies Lost In The Moment, Tacitician, Modun and Saptapadi are all in the 20-strong field. Hillview Boy, Sirvino and Blissful Moment sneak in at the bottom of the handicap, whilst the weights are headed by Mark Johnston's Fox Hunt. Mystery Star and Right Step are the two reserves for the feature race, which will be run on a Saturday for the first time |
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Does that mean money back on Tominator as he was ballotted out?
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Yes ^
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Cheers L M
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1 Invetissement
2 Modun 3 Montaff 4 Harlestone Times 5 Cill Rialaig 6 Nanton 7 Hillview Boy 8 Salute Him 9 Neeham 10 Moyen Corniche 11 Blissful Moment 12 Ted Spread 13 Fox Hunt 14 Right Step Res 15 Sirvino 16 Vulcanite 17 Mystery Star Res 18 Mount Athos 19 Halicarnassus 20 Tactician 21 Lost in the Moment 22 Saptapadi |
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Nice draw for Tactician
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This isn't a particularly competitive Ebor and won't take a massive amount of winning.
Satapadi is a poor favourite who I don't think will stay and is a bit of a placer. His only win was when 2/7. Lost in the moment is rock solid and should run well Tactician had a soft lead last time. This is not a front runners race. Fox Hunt is a great little handicapper but 9-10 is a stopping weight in a race like this. Modun has a great chance . His form is excellent. Would have been a very decisive magnet Cup winner without the highly impressive Green Destiny in the race. Looked in great shape at Goodwood where he finished full of running, the winner Arlequin franked the form yesterday. He has an excellent weight and ideal jockey on. I'm no breeding expert but a few have pointed out he's bred to stay. Could well win comfortably. Mount Athos has C/d form and hasn't had the rub of the green this year and if Modun doesn't stay he has every chance of winning. |
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so saptapadi wont stay but his half brother will becaause of his breeding !!!
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LOL, Tinker must have missed the Henry at Sandown over 2 miles with a stiff uphill finish
The Stable could have the 1-2, im slinging Saptapadi to finish 1st or second with Moyenne/Modun/Blissful in tricasts Mount Athos will have to wait until Oct for a big prize imo |
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Sirvino and Hillview Boy, two old favs for me. Hillview Boy, may not stay this far, but 50-1 ldbrk is big, e.w. Can be layed on here 46.0, Softer the better, Sirvino will like a bit of cut too. s
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Novice hurdle at Cheltenham zilzal ??
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If the ground was decent id fancy him to win the Ces Koo
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Satapadi has had his chances at longer distances than 1 1/4m and apart from the slow paced sandown race has failed. He looks a 1 1/4m horse and has a totally different physic to modun. a fast paced 1 3/4m race is likely
to bust him, carrying 9-5 is another negative. |
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I dont think that the Geoffrey Freer could be judged as a failure
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Still happy with Tactician - and M.Bell is in top class form - which helps !
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Moduns run at Goodwood?,i'll just say two words,follow it and you can spot for yourselves what chance he has,youll have to look at the other handicap races at Goodwood to spot it,and those words are,WIDE,OUTSIDE!!!.
Moyenne Corniche?,six years old and ONE maiden win to date!!!,Hillview Boy,well long in the tooth,tho hes gone up 18 pound since,check out his Donny win,virtually took off!!!! Saptadi?,percentage wise,how many horses win when stepping down from Group or listed class,into handicaps?. |
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I've backed Tactician (excellent course form) and Saptapadi for obvious reasons and those listed on here.
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good luck Koo and Co. Hope he does the bizzo! [:D]
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Rod Tidwell Joined: 27 Aug 01
Replies: 667 16 Aug 11 16:49 Good luck to Koo and his horse but I think all of the ante post money for Saptopadi has deflected the attention from Ellison's other runner, Moyenne Corniche, who looks to have been aimed at this race since his eyecatching performance in the Pitmans Derby. He looked all over the winner there but the trip just did him and a strongly run Ebor looks ideal - 11lbs better off with Tominator plus a decent 3lb to claim form Dale Swift. 25/1 will do for me and fingers then crossed for a decent draw to cement the value. Excellent call! |
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VWD Rod
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Yeh, wd Rod
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cheers chaps....a lot of leaping around in the Tidwell house today :)
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