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SYT has a nice run from a while out but it's not until he pulls out at 1 1/2 furlongs that he actually hits his stride.
Also, the commentators after the race said winning margins are almost always less at sandown (or at least in the eclipse, I forget). Now I have no knowledge of UK racing, but presumably these guys know as much as anyone on here in terms observing that specific thing. So perhaps that should be taken into account when quoting sri putra. |
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Sri Putra is capable of very decent form and is a good yardstick IMO
So anyone crabbing a formline involving him is off the mark. |
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Given the apparent (lack of) ratings skills of some people more than likely this thread should of been called the "I took the 2/1 on Workforce and bloody lost" thread. [;)]
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I would call it the "if Sri Putra's performance doesn't fit in with my non-objective view of SYT just
Ignore him" thread. ![]() |
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I dont think I even saw the Karma Sutra's horse or whatever strange name its called, I admit I dont realy take much notice of third fourth or fifth placegetters in 5 horse races.
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My view on ratings are that they are handy on a 6 month to yearly basis but not so much on a race to race basis for getting the true picture of a horse, afterall you are trying to apply a black and white formula to the grey area of a horse race.
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Dark Destroyer
I can see your point about Sri Putra, but my pre race views about SYT were that he was unlikely to better his POW run, so it's not just a case of making things fit with preconcieved ideas. It's not that unusual for a 5yo to run a few pounds better than it has before and it was only his third run of the season. |
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*preconceived
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No worries.
At least we're getting some interesting perspectives on here ! |
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You have a choice if you want to raise So You Think to a rating of 132 you have to assume Work Force has ran a career high over a trip probably short of his best and faster ground than ideal. You also have to assume Sri Putra ran to a career high and had improved by 4lb from his Ascot run.
Or you can leave So you think on a mark of 129 with Sri Putra improving from Ascot by a pound matching his careeer high and Work Force running slightly below his best with conditions not ideal. I think the latter is more likely |
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I keep reading a lot about the trip being too short for Workforce and the ground too fast, but there is no real evidence of either.
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I think Workforce being left in front way too early was a bigger factor in his getting beat, he broke the track record in the derby on fast ground ... maybe the combination of fast ground and shorter trip where the first half of the race wasn't fast enough for him all added up to a slightly under par performance.
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To be fair Workforce ran a cracking race and looked more composed that SYT as well IMO, its just not his ideal distance, and given SYT got done in the POW they most likely gambled that Workforce would roll SYT in the Eclipse and enhance Workforces appeal and rep.
If SYT had won the POW I highly doubt Workforce would of started yesterday. I see most people are saying workforce wont go the KG V1, so you have to assume they are doing a slow build up to peak for the Arc. Having said that SYT has run out two miles before, so im still dubious that workforce has it over him at 12f plus, but thats the general concensus. |
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As to the ground, yes he won an Arc on soft ground but was an all out head victory over Nakayama Festa, in receipt of the 8lbs wfa allowance, much superior to all his other pieces of form? Not as far as I'm concerned it wasn't.
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This debate demonstrates why bookmakers love horseracing. There is as much difference of opinion after the event as there is before the race.
The times on Saturday need to be interpreted in the context of a fats run (for the mark) by Cool Macavity over 10f and the incredibly fast time for Highland Knight over 8f. If we are to believe that the Eclipse was run to the level that TS indicates for the Eclipse then HK improved 15lb in conditions which he has experienced before and now on his 13th run supposedly ran 15lb better than his OR. I don't buy it and therefore I don't buy the times for the Eclipse.In which case I certainly do not buy the RR's given. Using the sectionals and allowing for Sandowns stiff finish I would say that the Eclipse was run in near even time suggesting that both horses are as good if not better at 12f. I do believe that WF is possibly bewtter on softer ground and expected improvement from him at Longchamp where he did indeed improve. Having said that, Isee no reason why SYT isn't as good on it either. Imo there isn't much between them.They will both show themselves to be better than on Saturday and imo the 132 rating given is a nonsense for that performance but not necessarily for either horse when at their absolute best. |
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Sandown
I don't understand at all your point about the Cool Macavity race, it was nearly 4 secs slower than the Eclipse resulting in a time rating that wouldn't even win an average claimer, on my scale. Point taken about the Highland Knight race, but personally I gave up on a uniform allowance encapsulating all races on a card a few years ago. There are many many instances of one race being out of kilter with the rest. |
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Also, as the 1m and 1m2f distances have different starting points slightly away from the main track, it's not rare for them to require different allowances occasionally.
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Figgis
I prefer to work to a conservative figure i.e one which doen't credit a handicapper with an improvement in time rating over its handicap mark until future performaances verify that he ran above that mark. given that, I can't rate the Eclipse figure for SYT higher than 120, same as TS. As for different allowances over the same course but from different start points, well I don't believe that degree of precision is possible. You end up making the figures fit a preconceived idea. |
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Sandown
Fair enough. I can't have it that the whole card (5f obviously excepted) works off the Highland Knight allowance, though, as all the other races become absurdly slow. There are countless other examples like that during a season but I believe it's possible to work things out with experience. I know some sectional time enthusiasts will put this down purely to variations in pace, however, while I agree that overall times are obviously sensitive to early pace, I don't believe everything else was run at a crawl, or a too fast early pace collapse. Each to their own though. |
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i thought SYT was very impressive in the end on saturday....he's won it cosy for me in the end, the proximity of the 2nd horse owes more to the fact that it took a good deal of time for hefferman to get the horse sorted and running for him....which once he did he picked workforce up easily enough...very impressive.
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beating snow fairy half a length doesn't constitute top-class form.
still no evidence in europe this horse is a superstar. |
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You make a good point IMO, hes simply not as good under O'Brien as he was when in Australia IMHO.
Now watch the $hit storm start! ![]() |
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O'Brien constantly tries to talk this horse up, as he does all of Coolmore's horses. Rewilding beat him fair and square at R.Ascot and even then he had his ready-made excuse lined up about him being under-cooked. He's an average G1 winner at 10f at best. Would not know which way the likes of Sea The Stars and Frankel went if he came up against that calibre of horse over 10f.
He's followed the Oz example of crowing about sporting greatness; and their exact same example of bleating as soon as they are beat. |
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He is a very good genuine Group 1 horse, but no superstar - if the Sea The Stars that won the race 2 years ago had been in that race he'd have won cosily by 2-3 lengths. Physically So You Think is s good a looker as I've seen - very big but well proportioned.
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"Rewilding beat him fair and square at R.Ascot"
I have to respond to that, IMO SYT did nothing wrong in this race, it was the combination of O'Brien, Obrien Jnr and Moore the jockey all completey stuffing up in the most amateur of ways. It realy was the epitamy of a muppet show, lets not forget Frankie also cheated with the whip as well. It was quite frankly a disgrace all round which only proves my previous point. |
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So You Think's form since coming under the care of Aidan O'Brien is 11211. That includes three wins in Group Ones, a second in another one and a 10 length win in a Group 3. The horse's campaigns in Australia lasted two months - ForceMajeure clearly failes to recognise this and thinks So You Think should win every Group One he competes as he did the 2010 Cox Plate or 2010 Mackinnon. Unfortuntely that is not going to be case in normal circumstances, and in particular when you're racing from the 2nd of May to possibly near the end of November, it's going to be near impossible. Add in the fact that the races in Europe are stronger than the others in Australia.
Of course, ForceMajuere will have no answer to the above paragraph just like all the questions that are asked of him on this forum - except to repeat the same old drivel that he has been writing up until now. Unclepuncle - I am a massive fan of So You Think and though I think Sea The Stars is the greatest I've seen, I think you are being harsh on So You Think too: There is only one horse in the whole of Europe that has dominated a distance like So You Think has his in 2011 - Frankel. That kind of shows the rarity of SYT's achievements thus far in 2011. And maybe we have different definitions of 'superstar' but any horse who wins three Group Ones in a season is certainly close to superstar status in my opinion. And I've no doubt there's more to come - possibly in the Arc. A very, very good racehorse and a win at Longchamp will elevate him to greatness. |
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rarity of SYT's achievements??? 53 horses have won 3 Group 1's or more in a season since 2000 and I bet virtually all of them have beaten more than 8 non-stable mate opponents in doing so as well, of those 8 only 3 have ever won a Group 1 themselves, only 1 has ever won a 10f Group 1 and not one has won a Group 1 this season at any distance. The only time he's faced an opponent except a stable-mate who had won/ subsequently won a Group 1 this season was in The POW stakes at Ascot
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53 is bigger than I thought but I wouldn't have included fillies or 2yos in my own mind so that might bring the total down a bit. Plus are these European trained racehorses? Maybe you could post them all? It also means that on average 4.4 racehorses win 3 or more Group Ones every year so at worst So You Think would make a top 4.4 racheorses in Europe on average ever year. Are you saying he is not top 4.4?
It is also not So You Think's fault that most racehorses are afraid to take him on...in relation to your last statement, what Group 1 winners this season would you like to have seen him beat? Frankel, Twice Over, Midday have not taken him on....which is hardly the So You Think's fault. Canford Cliffs and Rewilding are retired and passed away respectively. So your last comment is a bit of a fallacy - when you read into it a bit. Anyway, I do not wish to get into a debate about this. The horse is very good and whatever doubters exist, they will always produce arguments like the one above. I am not sure what it would take to convince you otherwise grendal, but it's doubtful my words will change your understated view of this racehorse. |
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i wouldnt like to lay snow fairy winning a group 1 this season.
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As requested SYT:-
Albanova,Alexandrova,Attraction,Bago,Black Caviar,Blue Bunting,Canford Cliffs,Crimplene,Dalakhani,Dancing Rain,Darjina,Divine Proportions,Duke Of Marmalade,Dylan Thomas,Falbrav,Fantastic Light,Frankel,Galileo,Giant's Causeway,Goldikova,Grandera,Halfway To Heaven,Henrythenavigator,Johannesburg,Kutub,Lush Lashes,Mandesha,Manduro,Marchand D'Or,Marienbard,Midday,Montjeu,New Approach,Peeping Fawn,Petrushka,Pride,Ramonti,Rewilding,Rock Of Gibraltar,Rocket Man,Russian Rhythm,Sacred Kingdom,Schiaparelli,Sea The Stars,Shamardal,Sinndar,Snow Fairy,So You Think,Soviet Song,Stacelita,Star Witness,Vision D'Etat,Zarkava. |
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People get irritated at the Coolmore hype over this horse. O'Brien after the Rogers Gold Cup:
"He's incredible - a different creature to what we've ever seen before and we're just very lucky to have him racing on this side of the world this year." "He'd have no problem running in a Group 1 over a mile." Well technically Aiden's right and he is different - but then so is every horse. And he would indeed have no problem running in a mile G1 - but winning it might be a different matter. |
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He beat famous name by 6 1/2 lengths, famous name is rated 117. What would that make SYT (if you ignored the snow fairy run)?
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The betting market probably has overrated him since he came over here. 4/11 for the POW was a staggering
price considering he was facing multiple GRP 1 winners Twice over, Planteur and Rewilding. His price for the Eclipse and Irish Champion also looked on the short side. I really like this horse though , he's a very difficult horse to beat, has a strong constitution that could withstand a lot of racing, is courageous, has some pace, travels well and is a very willing competiter. He's got everything you need to win a fast ground Arc. The problem is that if they do wait to see what the ground looks like being and its fast then again he's likely to be underpriced. If the ground is g/s or softer then it all becomes murkier. This horse has the constitution to run in the ARc ,champions stakes and Breeders cup: not many could do that. |
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The original statement was 'so you think overrated'. And goes on to say'clearly workforce is better at 1m4f, so it follows that he wasn't at his best yesterday'. The danger with that is IF SYT stays 1m4f then he could well have the measure of workforce again. I can't find the quote but read somewhere that the previous trainer of SYT was asked to comment on Saturdays performance & mumbled the word 'fat'. My worry for you all is that SYT is not yet fully fit & IF he turns up for the Arc there will be a fair few sheepish people about. I'm happy for myself as I'm well 'topped up' & am still chipping away at the 6-1 on here. Of course he may well not run given the investment & danger. But if he does I suspect he'll have the measure of them all. I'm prepared for the backlash & this is simply my opinion of which we are all entitled to. I just think this horse oozes Class & whilst he might not be everything they claim he more than often does enough.
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Grendel is their a site your getting them from? Some great memories going through your list there.
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Thank you for the list Grendel but it might need refining. E.g. Star Witness and Black Caviar are included but other Australians such as Apache Cat and Weekend Hussler aren't? I think if you take out the former two, you have all European trained racehorses who won three or more Group Ones in one season? But then there's the likes of Ouija Board won 3 Group Ones in 2004 and 2006, and Snow Fairy last year but I presume it's because their third win came in USA and Japan respectively that they have not been included?
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Mr Mischief, I just used Raceform Interactive and Excel to come up with the list
SoYouThink ... I searched 'GROUP 1' whereas USA and Japan is listed in R.I. as 'GRADE 1' tommyjoe, I wouldn't interpret the form that strictly as the pace of the race was fast early and they slowed down to a slow overall time for the class of race and this didn't suit Famous Name, a more even paced contest would have seen him a lot closer |
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so at worst So You Think would make a top 4.4 racheorses in Europe on average ever year. Are you saying he is not top 4.4?
I would certainly say he is . Frankel,Canford Cliffs and Goldikova being superior. At Middle Distance i would have him Number 1 this year. But still that means he seems to have been overated .Becuase the way Coolmore and their followers and some Aussies have talked him up he was supposed to be in the top 0.7 of horses you would see in Europe in an average year! We were told he was one of the best we would see in our lifetimes, not one of the 3 or 4 best of an average year. Of course if had a spectacular victory in The Arc or Breeder's Cup Classic or beat Frankel then we would be obliged to revise our opinions dramatically .I would be happy yo do so, never mind admitting i'm wrong. But until that happens i'd prefer to rate him on what i've seen him do rather than on what people say he might be able to do. |
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Pour Moi would have laughed at him in the Arc.
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Thank you for that contribution Platini.
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