Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
sintonian
11 May 11 16:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,190 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Impressive.

Wasn't stopping at the finish, fact!

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 150
By:
jamesp
When: 26 May 11 11:51
I really like this filly.  For anyone who hasn't cottoned on to the subject of this thread, Maybe is a two-year-old filly trained by Aidan O'Brien, who won a Naas 6f maiden on 11 May in impressive fashion by 4½ lengths, earning a Racing Post Rating of 90+ ("soon led and made virtually all, went clear from well over 1f out, pushed out and kept on well").  In recent years his runners in that Naas maiden have included:
Rumplestiltskin (2005) won by ½ length (RPR 84)
Heart Shaped (2008) third, beaten 3½ lengths by Cuis Ghaire (RPR 80)
Lillie Langtry (2009) second, beaten 2½ lengths by Kitty Kiernan (RPR 80)
Together (2010) third, beaten 4½ lengths by Radharcnafarraige (RPR 71)

The key trend is that all four of those fillies improved by at least a stone (using RPR's as a guide) next time out: Rumplestiltskin improved by 19lbs, Heart Shaped improved by 14lbs, Lillie Langtry improved by 19lbs and Together improved by 14lbs.  All four turned out to be very smart, achieving ratings of 112, 110, 107 and 111 respectively later in their juvenile season.  Lillie Langtry and Together both trained on well and achieved higher ratings at three.  Three of them won or went close to winning Group 1 races over a mile (the other one, Heart Shaped, was a close second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was fourth in the 1000 Guineas).  Three of them were beaten at the Royal meeting on their third start but went on to make further improvement later on at two, so I imagine that Maybe will bypass Ascot in favour of the Listed race at Naas on 6th June (the race Lillie Langtry won impressively a couple of years ago).  If Maybe makes the expected improvement she will surely be good enough to win that Naas race next time.

Many of Aidan O'Brien's best horses have started off as juveniles in May or June and have achieved RPR's in the upper 80's to mid-90's first time out.  The following colts made their first appearance by June and achieved decent ratings first time out: King Of Kings (RPR 95), Oratorio (88), One Cool Cat (78), Hawk Wing (88), Rock Of Gibraltar (88), Holy Roman Emperor (92), Dylan Thomas (87), George Washington (86), Henrythenavigator (95), Mastercraftsman (83), Cape Blanco (82), Rip Van Winkle (90).  A number of these had improved by 20-30lbs by their third start: eg Mastercraftsman was rated 120 after three starts, Rip Van Winkle was rated 114 at a similar stage, while One Cool Cat, Hawk Wing and Rock Of Gibraltar were all rated 115 after three starts.

Racing Post Ratings are just one person's opinion and they are just a general guide rather than something to put any great faith in, but it's unusual for a filly to achieve such a high rating first time out as early as May of their juvenile season.  Given the tendency of Aidan O'Brien's juveniles to make considerable improvement through their first few races, I would expect Maybe to prove well up to Group race standard this season. 

Looking further ahead, Maybe is by Galileo, a proven sire of Group 1-winning fillies over a mile plus (Lily Of The Valley, Lush Lashes, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Allegretto, Misty For Me) plus a couple of Guineas runners-up (Cuis Ghaire and Together).  Maybe's dam Sumora (by Danehill) was speedy (her two wins came over 5f as a juvenile), but she seemed to stay 6f on turf (7f on the all-weather) and she's a full sister to Fleeting Shadow (won over 7f at two and stayed at least a mile, tried at up to 12f) and closely related to 10f winner Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer) and Captain Dancer (also by Danehill Dancer, stays 10f).  The Galileo/Danehill cross has proved highly successful, his most notable offspring from Danehill mares being Frankel, Teofilo, Roderic O'Connor, Cima De Triomphe, Golden Lilac, Gile Na Greine and Cuis Ghaire.

Given what I said on another thread about giving O'Brien-trained fillies the swerve as far as the 1000 Guineas is concerned, it surprises even me that I have backed Maybe at 33/1 for next year's Guineas.  I don't normally get involved in the Guineas antepost market before Royal Ascot at the earliest, but just occasionally a filly makes a big enough impression in May or early June to warrant a speculative punt (Marling, Attraction, Cuis Ghaire and Lillie Langtry spring to mind).  I wouldn't have taken less than 33/1 at this stage and the price reflects to some extent Aidan O'Brien's very patchy record in the 1000 Guineas, but Virginia Waters (and to a lesser extent Together this year) showed that he is capable of making an impact in the race if he has the right filly and is prepared to train it specifically for the race (rather than use the Guineas as a prep for the Irish Guineas or Coronation Stakes).  I think that Maybe will eventually get a mile, she certainly wasn't stopping at the end of 6f on debut, and with scope for considerable improvement to come she is likely to make an impact in top races later this season.  If she turns up at Naas on 6th June she's likely to start odds-on.  After that, it will be interesting to see whether O'Brien keeps her to 6f this season (Railway Stakes, Cherry Hinton, Lowther, Phoenix, Cheveley Park) or ups her in trip (Debutante Stakes, Moyglare etc).  As she's by Galileo I imagine we'll see her over 7f or a mile later this season.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 May 11 12:03
Was very impressive debut. Not sure what she beat but was impressive. I would love her for Aidan to get another run into her before Royal Ascot as she looked very green.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 May 11 14:28
Excellent stuff James. Of all the juveniles Aidan has unleased so far, and admittedly it is very early days, MAYBE and REPLY have been the most impressive imo.

And yes, I am surprised you have backed her for next years Guineas!

re Lillie Langtry, I think they did intend on running her at Newmarket last year, and rated her highly all season. But she had niggling injuries early on and it was that that caused her to miss the race. If Pat Smullen is booked to ride next season at HQ, then consider it a negative/prep.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 26 May 11 14:36
Beautifully bred daughter of Galileo out of Sumora. Looks a potential superstar
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 26 May 11 14:36
oooops wrong account MischiefSilly
By:
sintonian
When: 26 May 11 14:43
Laugh
Soldier of Fortune will be along shortly, fo sho!
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 26 May 11 14:49
somebody has to fill in in the interim Grin
By:
jamesp
When: 29 May 11 14:06
Maybe's form was paid a handsome compliment at Leopardstown this afternoon, where Teolane (beaten nearly 6 lengths by Maybe at Naas) won the 7f maiden in impressive fashion.  Teolane had been slowly away on debut and clearly relished the step up in trip, but even so it was good to see Maybe's form franked in such emphatic fashion.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 May 11 15:48
Yes he did it well and was well backed to do so.

On a slightly different subject, Jim Bolgers Glor Na Mara returned to form with a 3rd place in the Ballychorus stakes behind Zoffany and Bewitched. I guess that was down to the much better ground, something which Bolger has said he always needed, and it makes you wonder why Jim races his horses on unsuitable ground often. Perhaps it's just because they have to take what they get in Ireland but he ran Lush Lashes a lot on Soft ground and it did her no favours.
By:
jamesp
When: 01 Jun 11 15:14
As expected, Maybe has been entered for the Coolmore Stud EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes (Listed) at Naas on 6th June.  Possible opponents include Jim Bolger's unraced Somasach (a daughter of US Grade 1 winner Easy Now, who holds Gr.1 entries later in the season), David Wachman's unraced Aloof (half-sister to Meow, by Galileo out of Airwave), the well regarded Teolane (well held on debut form behind Maybe, susequently impressive maiden winner at Leopardstown over 7f) and Tom Dascombe's Switcher (impressive debut winner at Haydock).
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 11 16:05
Somasach runs tonight at Tipperary James.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 11 16:06
In about 20 minutes ..
By:
jamesp
When: 01 Jun 11 16:46
Yes, I just noticed that Somasach was due to run at Tipperary.  She looked ill-at-ease on the undulations but was nursed home to win cosily, sure to improve once she's stepped up in trip.  Jim Bolger has a great record in the Naas race next week, so I wouldn't put it past him to run this filly again quickly.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 01 Jun 11 18:44
Lads that Listed Race is going to be a very good renewal. I still think Maybe is better than Teolane and Somasach but i wonder has she learned anything from that debut run. The market will reveal all[;)]
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 01 Jun 11 19:04
Also just having a quick look at the Colts Version. Which one is the Number 1...Reply or Choir?? before heading to Ascot.

Heffernan subsequently joked “it’s great to be riding these steering jobs! Choir was a bit green but was a real steering job.”



Aidan O'Brien said: "I'm delighted with him. He had a lovely first run and came on for it.

"He is a horse that is not short of speed and he can go over five or six furlongs. He is a Royal Ascot type and he'll have an entry in the Norfolk and the Coventry Stakes.

"He travelled strongly from start to finish there.


HMMConfused
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 01 Jun 11 19:05
The above quote by Aidan is in realtion to Reply
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Jun 11 10:30
James, I wouldn't be surprised to see Somasach turn up next week either. Jim Bolger ran Chabal in a Group 1 just 6 days after making his winning debut!!
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 02 Jun 11 10:33
We have seen several promising juvenile fillies (more so than the colts to date) who appear to be bred for a mile. In previous years I would already have started my AP book for next year but after the recent debacles, for me at least with Helleborine and Frankel, I just don't have the appetite for it.
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 02 Jun 11 10:33
We have seen several promising juvenile fillies (more so than the colts to date) who appear to be bred for a mile. In previous years I would already have started my AP book for next year but after the recent debacles, for me at least with Helleborine and Frankel, I just don't have the appetite for it.
By:
jamesp
When: 05 Jun 11 22:05
Maybe has not been declared to run in the Coolmore Stud EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes (Listed) at Naas tomorrow.  I imagine that she will now be kept for the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race in which Aidan O'Brien has run some smart fillies in recent years (even though they all got beaten in the race): Rumplestiltskin (2005), You'resothrilling (2007) and Lillie Langtry (2009).  Aidan ran a couple of moderate fillies in last year's Albany but they had shown nothing like the same level of form as Maybe.
By:
jair1970
When: 05 Jun 11 22:29
Betfair have put their Guineas markets up.

Apart from the obvious, nothing they've included appeals, but it's nice to know we've somewhere to start!
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Jun 11 06:30
I guess it looks a penalty kick for Teolane which will boost the form of Maybe further. I wonder if she has a slight knock ? The prixe money tonight is excellent although that is not of much interest to Coolmore.

Princess Sinead is an interesting runner. She made her debut over c&d and I always find it fascinating when a trainer sticks a once raced maiden into Listed or Group company. It is usually a sign of the regard they hold the horse in, and Jessica Harrington did something similar this season when she put Sirens Song into a Listed race as a maiden.
By:
jamesp
When: 06 Jun 11 07:47
I'm not sure that the drop back to 6f will necessarily suit Teolane, who is bred to do better over 7f+.  Princess Sinead is the one that interests me too, sint.  Jessica Harrington is certainly not averse to running her best fillies in Listed or Group 3 company before they have even won a maiden: in addition to Siren's Song, who won a Listed race following a debut second, there was Laughing Lashes (2010), who was second on debut and finished an excellent second in a Gr.3 next time out; Long Lashes (2009), who won a Listed event on racecourse debut; and Sahara Princess (2005), who won a Listed race second time out following a debut 7th. 

Like Teolane, Princess Sinead missed the break on her debut in Maybe's race and is likely to improve considerably on that form, so I have had a speculative small punt on her at around 6/1.  Her sire Jeremy is having his first two-year-olds this year and notched his first winner the other day up at Ripon.  The dam is unraced but beautifully bred (by Gone West out of the smart mare Kooyonga).  Apart from Teolane, the other one to note is Homecoming Queen: there is surely much better to come from this half-sister to Dylan Thomas and Queen's Logic, but probably over a longer trip.  Naseem Sea ran well last time under a penalty over course and distance (behind one of Aidan O'Brien's Royal Ascot-bound colts) and can't be lightly dismissed.  Basantee won a poor race last time with any amount in hand and her trainer appears to have a decent bunch of juvenile fillies.  Teolane is the likeliest winner, obviously, but is worth taking on at the prices.
By:
jamesp
When: 06 Jun 11 08:14
Having re-watched the Naas race several times now, I see no reason why Teolane should reverse the form with Princess Sinead.  The latter was given a pretty gentle introduction and showed far more tactical speed than Teolane, who was rousted along from some way out.  Teolane was undoubtedly green and improved over a longer trip next time at Leopardstown, but Princess Sinead is entitled to have improved for that promising debut and looks way too big at current prices.
By:
AJM
When: 06 Jun 11 09:21
I think Feathers and Bows represents terrific value in this race. Beaten only a neck by Teolane on debut she is now 33-1 whilst Teolane is closer to evens. I appreciate horses improve significantly at this stage in their careers but the discrepancy in price seems far too much.

I feel that Teolane was happy dominating slower horses last time out and it may not be so easy tonight against classier and speedier rivals. Interestingly the third home in the Maiden won by Teolane is trained by Watchman who also trains Feathers and Bows. Significantly that filly does not hold a group one entry over six furlongs like Feathers and Bows, so it is logical to assume it is not viewed to be as precocious as the filly running tonight.

Last time out at the Curragh I was highly impressed by the way Feathers and Bows travelled, however, she did not recieve a clear run and is a lot better than her finishing position suggests. I feel her price is largely due to her being written off on the basis of having a 9 by her name but this would be a mistake as her form behind Maybe ties her in closely with the market leaders.
By:
fitzee
When: 06 Jun 11 12:33
Couldn't agree more AJM. 33's is far too big.
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 06 Jun 11 15:00
Maybe is a truly stunning looking filly. I've got a picture of her in full flow there in Naas the last day and she looks fantastic.

By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, she is absolutely beautifully bred and with improvement to come from her debut win she could be something very special.

25/1 for the Guineas in Newmarket next May and I've taken it.
By:
geoff m
When: 06 Jun 11 15:44
Form took a massive boost @ NAAS.
By:
jamesp
When: 06 Jun 11 15:49
Yes, the first two home at Naas this afternoon had been easily brushed aside by Maybe.  Teolane is doubtless favourite for the Guineas in some lists but she wasn't hugely impressive today, she looks like an out-and-out galloper.  No excuses for Princess Sinead, but it was an obvious trade for me (backed at around 7.0 and laid off at around 4.8 for a bet to nothing) and she's clearly very useful.
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Jun 11 16:10
Yes I couldn't have Teolane either. No doubt she will have an agressive campaign under Jim Bolger also, with three runs already and we've not even got to Royal Ascot yet.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 06 Jun 11 16:33
Good performance...they were strung out all over the Naas Countryside. The Muck got put in its place. Obviously Maybe takes a massive boost of form but this filly will hold her own in the 2yr old division.

Great tonic for Jim to see Teofilo lighting up his yard.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 06 Jun 11 16:35
On another note do you think Maybe will head straight to Royal Ascot or miss Royal Ascot. No doubt Aidan would have rang Jim to see what he was running and made a decision last week not to run if Jim was going to run Teolane. Obviously not the main decision why she didn't run but plays a part
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Jun 11 14:07
I would think Aidan would have no qualms about meeting Teolane again tbh. As to why whe missed the race yesterday it could be any number of reasons ..
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Jun 11 14:08
* she
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Jun 11 14:09
Teolane recorded her second successive victory with a determined display in the Coolmore Stud European Breeders Fund Fillies Sprint Stakes.

Jim Bolger's filly, a daughter of the yard's former champion juvenile Teofilo, was sent off the 11-10 market-leader to supplement her recent Leopardstown win.

Kevin Manning bustled her up into an early lead as she dropped back from seven to six furlongs and while she was off the bridle a fair way from home, she kept responding to pressure.

The well-supported Princess Sinead gave chase, but was two and a half lengths away at the finish.

Bolger said: "She's not certain to go to the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot as it might just be a little bit too close. We'll see how she comes out of today's race.

"If she doesn't go to Ascot, then it could be Moyglare time before she runs again.

"She'll get any trip and could stay a mile and a half. She could be anything, the further she goes the better."


Is Jim priming one for GodolphinConfusedLaugh
By:
Kingdom Of Naples
When: 08 Jun 11 22:37
They will not take on Teolane again with Maybe
By:
Kingdom Of Naples
When: 08 Jun 11 22:37
They will not take on Teolane again with Maybe
By:
jamesp
When: 09 Jun 11 10:05
What makes you think that Teolane is a better filly than Maybe, Kingdom of Naples?  Do you not think that Maybe, who finished well ahead of Teolane at Naas, will come on a bundle for that debut win and is likely to maintain her superiority over Teolane in future?
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 09 Jun 11 13:00
Maybe was a 340,000 purchase. Their is plenty of improvement. She was green as grass and was a massive drifter which i believe ballydoyle felt she could not win from what she was doing at home. She could be a real filly. Loved the way she can do it from the front and a big field at Royal Ascot tucked in behind she could be immense
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com