Horse Antepost
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MAYBE
MAYBE
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Predictably,imo, JB will send Teolane to Ascot for the Albany. He also plans on sending Somasach over for the Queen Mary.
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Bolger was toying with the idea of waiting for a 7f race in a few weeks' time for Teolane. I suspect he's made the wrong decision to go for the Albany. She looks a staying type to me and I'm not convinced that she will have the speed to cope with the likes of Maybe, Shumoos (if she takes her chance in the Albany instead of the Queen Mary), Falls Of Lora and Wesley Ward's selected. Of course, plans may all change if the ground turns soft...
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Very worried about the ground for Maybe this afternoon. She's weak in the market (out from 6/4 to 2/1) and we simply don't know how she'll handle the soft conditions. But I guess she'd have been pulled out if they thought she wouldn't handle it. The last thing she wants, though, is a hard race over 7f on very soft ground.
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that was well impressive.
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Back
Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Maybe 3.85 £2,394.46 £6,829.35 nice drift  |
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Wow, market had it very wrong. Super performance, was never in doubt at any stage.
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10/1 with the magic swine now for the 1000 Guineas.
Interesting sort, beating the colts. The going was soft and she loved it. Its nor soft at HQ on Guineas day very often. |
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Moore let slip he was more confident on Maybe. Should have had more on. Magnier probably just won another fortune.
3.50 £32,016 3.55 £117,114 3.60 £92,426 3.65 £56,736 3.70 £77,552 3.75 £52,514 3.80 £127,364 3.85 £64,104 3.90 £53,770 3.95 £55,015 4.00 £72,252 4.10 £27,664 |
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Was class on her maiden on Good To Firm, looks like she'll take to anything.
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GF on debut win, goes on any ground by the looks of it.
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beat me to it!
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interesting breeding.
out of a Danehill mare who you would have thought would impart little stamina, so you would have thought a mile would be fine and though she might stay 10 you would not think that she would get the Oaks trip. However the dam (Sumora) is out of Rain Flower, the dam of this years Oaks winner so maybe (pun intended) she will stay further than it first seems. After all she has just won in the June of her 2yo career over a stiff 7 furlongs on soft going. On balance, although there is a real doubt I think she is just about going to get 12 furlongs and if you could get a decent price for the Oaks I would be interested in a small wager. |
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Given the way they price up any decent, well bred maiden winner from a top stable at about 16/1 I'm surprised 10/1 is still on offer after that impressive win.
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I am surprised why, when 10/1 is available with The magic Swine, an idiot wants to back it at 9/1 on here less 5% commission.
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10/1 for the Guineas is not exactly generous, but she was 16/1 beforehand and is now as short as 9/2 (VC and Stan J), 7/1 (Hills, Coral), 8/1 (Power, Sky), so perhaps 10/1 is about right. She looks sure to continue to progress, she goes on any ground, she has a good cruising speed, she's from the magical Galileo/Danehill cross and she's head and shoulders above the other fillies we've seen so far (with the possible exceptions of Best Terms, Shumoos and Samitar). I'd already backed her at 33s for the Guineas and have just topped up at 10/1.
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Pleasing.
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Truly superb!
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Hope they don't over race her this year. Personally I'd just get the Gp1 Moyglare in the bag and then put her away. The Fillies Mile seems like a graveyard for 1,000 Guineas aspirations these days.
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She did it well today. Would not get too carried away yet however. As someone said a break to the Moyglare and then rap it up for the season. 3 runs is more than enough imo for a 2yr old campaign.
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how likely is that though? look at misty for me, 5 runs at 2 and she hadnt even run before royal ascot last year.
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Unless another star filly is lurking in the wings at Ballydoyle, I imagine that Maybe will run in one of the end of season Group 1 races over a mile (the Fillies' Mile or Prix Marcel Boussac). She has been given a provisional Racing Post Rating of 99 (just 6lbs higher than her previous mark) for the Chesham performance, which will probably have to be revised upwards in due course.
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The Moyglare looks the obvious next step for her james and she'll go there with a massive chance. She improved significantly from her debut there in Naas the last day and what impressed me more than anything else was her maturity today. She made things easy for her rider and he clearly thinks a lot of her. For sure he has other commitments Ryan Moore but they'd be well advised to keep the partnership intact.
She's a beautiful looking athletic type of filly who already looks at ease with herself. No doubt whatsoever that she'll find further improvement there in August and one can only hope that they plot a very careful path to Newmarket for her from there. |
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Visually impressive, travelled extremely well through the race, quickened nicely when the r/up came to challenge then idled a little, the first two pulling clear of the third.
All in all a decent performance, but it was after all only a listed race, competitive by weight of numbers rather than quality? with very little of the top trainers represented. So lets not get carried away just yet, but on breeding alone she should be a superstar. |
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Whereas I agreed a quote of 33/1 for MAYBE for the Guineas next yr was more than fair following her debut win, 10/1 (and lots shorter in places) for a race still over 10 months away following a listed win on ground vastly different to what can be expected in the Guineas is lunacy. Does a comfortable win over several horses that didn't go on the ground and with a maiden in 2nd place really warrant cutting the horse 23pts to 10/1?! While very well bred, and I do think she can progress to be a strong Guineas contender, 10/1 is absolutely no value at all with plenty of other fillies yet to even make their debuts.
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This horse is for trading, not backing outright. Aidans record in the 1000 Guineas tells us as much and there is no guarantee he would have this horse ready for Newmarket. I couldn't back her out right for the race and she is only a trade for me.
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Sof, why do you have to tell people things they already know re Aidans runners? I dont think you realise how phucking annoying it is, with respect.
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With respect sint, Up Yours!
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[:D]
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Boys, boys, boys less of the quibbling. I'm on Maybe at 10/1. Looked extremely smart to me. Woosh.
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James what grade is the Debutante stakes ?
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group 2
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jamesp and sint .. what does this animal look like. Suppose what I'm looking for is that it isn't built like a she man tank but has scope to train on and I'll then invest a couple of quid more. Do the family train on does anybody know? What's the clock say? Looked very special to me.
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I haven't see her in the flesh, but she certainly looks to have plenty of scope to train on. Her dam Sumora was a precocious two-year-old sprinter (she won her first two races, including a Listed event, both over 5f) but she also trained on reasonably well - her two best career starts (according to Racing Post Ratings) were as a three-year-old when she ran well in valuable sprint handicaps at York (RPR 103) and Doncaster (RPR 107). Sumora is closely related to this year's Oaks winner Dancing Rain (who obviously trained on extremely well from two to three) and Captain Dancer (winner at two and four) and she's a full sister to Fleeting Shadow (a very useful two-year-old who didn't really progress from two to three). She's also half-sister to Mikhail Fokine (by Sadler's Wells), a moderate juvenile who won over 12f at three. I'd be very surprised if Maybe turned out to be just a precocious juvenile. Her winning times have been solid if unspectacular.
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Jamesp, I agree about her times, which imv gives her an even better chance of training on, unlike some of the speedier fillies.
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As usual thank - you boys. You two are brainy.
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I've not seen her in the flesh either but thought she looked quite strong and stocky for a 2yo filly.
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Maybe faces five fillies in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown tomorrow evening: Gooseberry Fool (M.Prescott), La Collina (K.Prendergast), Maid To Master (J.Harrington), Miss Dylan (J.Bolger) and Somasach (J.Bolger). Somasach (the chosen mount of Kevin Manning) was runner-up to David Wachman's filly Experience in a Gr.3 race over 6f last time on softish ground: that form was let down by the winner and the third Naseem Sea, who were both well beaten in a Listed race at Tipperary the other day, but Somasach should appreciate faster ground and the step up to 7f (her dam was a Grade 1 winner over a mile) and she rates the main danger to Maybe. Jessie Harrington is not averse to running her best horses in pattern company before they have registered a maiden win and Maid To Master is a very interesting newcomer, being a full sister to the top class Mastercraftsman. La Collina won a median auction maiden at Limerick and has a lot more on her plate here, but she won quite impressively and could be a nice filly. Gooseberry Fool won a maiden on the all-weather at Kempton and takes a big step up in class, but she's beautifully bred, being by Danehill Dancer out of the top-class mare Last Second, so she's closely related to the French Guineas winner Aussie Rules. Miss Dylan, by first season sire Dylan Thomas, is from a rather untalented family on the dam's side and may be in as pacemaker for Somasach (they're in the same ownership).
This looks a competitive race, with the fillies that have already run having shown plenty of promise and one of the newcomers being bred for the job and from a stable that knows the time of day with its better horses. Maybe is likely to start a very short price but will need to win this convincingly to maintain her position as antepost favourite for the 1000 Guineas. The last two runnings of this race have been won by Ballydoyle fillies (Cabaret and Together) and it will be a bit of a surprise if Maybe isn't up to the task. |
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Spotlight in the Racing Post is very bullish about Maybe: "Has created an exceptional impression thus far, showing speed in abundance when easily winning a well above-average 6f maiden at Naas before showing stamina and class on unsuitably soft ground when winning the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in great style; a genuine tip-top prospect that looks to be a Group 1 winner waiting to happen." I hope he's right!
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This should be a easy easy easy assignment. Will go off around 1/3 or 1/4 depending on how much Joey puts overweight i think it be at least 1lb. Harrington's would have to be a superstar to beat this very impressive filly. I would assume next destination after this will be the Debutante stakes at the Curragh and the Moyglare.
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I agree about the likely outcome, but not about the odds. I have laid her at 1.31, which is simply too short. I'd expect her to be available at around 4/9 on track.
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