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Meat Loaf
13 Oct 10 18:34
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Date Joined: 22 May 09
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Thoguht it would be beneficial to start a thread to collate all of ou views on the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2010.

Betfair now has a market. The only question is - who wins it! [>o]

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By:
Far From Trouble
When: 13 Oct 10 18:48
Long Run sniff
By:
Leonardo
When: 13 Oct 10 18:48
agree^^^
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 13 Oct 10 18:53
Entries close on October 26th. Weights published 3rd November . penalties for winning a chase after Saturday 31st october; 5 lbs.maximum 20 runners. source programme book.
By:
stormey1
When: 13 Oct 10 19:01
I can see Long Run is gonna be the big debate horse in this race.
Plenty will want to back it and plenty will want to lay it.
If Poquelin runs off 164 then i have it that Long Run would have 11st 1lb on his back.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 13 Oct 10 19:04
Sam Waley-Cohen will also take another 5lb of his back. I sense it could be Liam Heard all over again Cry
By:
stormey1
When: 13 Oct 10 19:05
Ive included the 5lb mate
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 13 Oct 10 19:06
Liam Heard did nothing wrong (I take it you are talking about Granit Jack)

Can honestly see Long Run being a 170+ horse. 158 seems generous and his form is pretty solid
By:
booster
When: 13 Oct 10 19:15
Great Endeavour for me if good ground. Has potential to improve off 146 and guaranteed to like the track plus the stable can get them right for this race and he has a good record from his novice hurdling days in the early stages of the season.
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 13 Oct 10 19:28
I agree FFT - Liam Heard took a lot of stick, but in the end if you throw novices into a handicap of that quality to take account of the fact they remain unexposed to the handicapper, then ultimately you are only trading weight for experience - and you accept the risks that come with that. It was the trainer who made that call, not the jockey - and if anyone should have taken criticism then that is where it should have been aimed. Sadly the criticism of Heard was motivated by empty pockets.

At this stage I find it difficult to assess where Long Run will end up in the ratings, but I would agree that his 158 rating is a fair reflection of what he has achieved to date, if not top end. Assumptions of any substantial further improvement can only come from the assessment of the trainer and stable.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 13 Oct 10 19:34
Lets be honest it did end Liam Heard's career.

If I rememebr rightly Granit Jack was only carrying 10st 1lb [:o]
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 13 Oct 10 19:52
10st 1lbs is corrent Meatloaf - I really felt for Liam Heard. The horse was backed off the boards and came to grief at the downhill fence - which is difficult enough for a novice but brutal when going at full speed in a top handicap against seasoned campaigners. Broke his neck when he knuckled on landing, not sure what the critics thought Heard could have done. Before this race he had completed five times around Pau, winning four - hardly a test of jumping. Came into this race straight off the back of finishing second in the Supreme Novices. Trainer would have been hailed as a genius if he had won - but jockey gets slaughtered when it all goes badly wrong. The error was running a 5-y-o with no jumping experience in a Graded handicap at Cheltenham.
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 13 Oct 10 20:20
Assuming Weird Al goes for the Hennessy, I'll be all over Long Run in this off 158 with the claim.

Catch Me would be interesting if coming over and CCM reckons that he might. [:)]
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 13 Oct 10 20:52
Copper Bleu has some room for improvement, has had a wind op and may still be well handicapped as he always needed 2m 4f. Will get 11 lbs from Long Run and with 20s available could be the value bet
By:
stevo1
When: 13 Oct 10 22:25
Quiet Bobby is my fancy backed it at Cheltenham Festival was thrown in on hurdles form?Jumped and travelled very well,then thought he would follow up in Ireland but ran very poorly,maybe why has had wind op? On his hurdles form could be very well in!
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Oct 10 00:11
Booster think Great Endeavours mark is 142 mate, raised 7 for win at Cheltenham off 135?
By:
bigben
When: 14 Oct 10 07:49
Copper Bleu is top of my four horse shortlist.

He had breathing problems before his win in The Jewson, hence the tongue tie.

He has also met with a slight setback according to the trainer, so is not 100% certain to be ready for The PP.
By:
splinterboy82
When: 14 Oct 10 09:22
LR will dot up in this just like Tank did in his first hennessy & then we'll all be set for Kauto vs LR on boxing day.........Can't wait!!!
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Oct 10 12:46
Bigben when did Hobbs state not 100% certain to be ready? Thanks in advance as was ready to back.
By:
bigben
When: 14 Oct 10 14:54
Its on the RPTV Philip Hobbs stable tour.
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Oct 10 15:55
Cheers big ben
By:
stevo1
When: 14 Oct 10 16:00
Big form boost for Copper Bleu today, China Rock 4th to him in Jewson beating Sizing Europe easily!
By:
toon4eva
When: 14 Oct 10 17:07
If Long Run runs off 11st 1lb would have to back it, will be a proper test of his jumping though so won't go in too heavy.
By:
bigben
When: 14 Oct 10 18:17
I"d much rather see him carry 11st 6lbs with a proper jockey on his back personally.
By:
toon4eva
When: 14 Oct 10 18:24
I would too bigben tbh think that factored into his price though if Geraghty was on would be at least a point shorter imo.
By:
dananderson
When: 14 Oct 10 20:16
long run no chance. bad jumper flat track bully im a better jockey than waley cohen . henderson is a moron if he runs this sofd aas in this race
By:
EIRROG
When: 15 Oct 10 04:32
lol
By:
stu b
When: 15 Oct 10 06:27
If Nicholls does put Poquelin in off top weight, what could he have lurking around the bottom?

Take The Breeze if the ground was soft, last run at Aintree was very good to be that close to Burton Port on good ground.
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 15 Oct 10 08:52
According to the tttf book poquelin will run at aintree then be put away before cheltenham. but then again nicholls says denman will be going for the betfair chase in there so who knows
By:
harchibald
When: 19 Oct 10 19:40
LONG RUN - I backed him in the RSA. I just watched the race back again, he LOST that race at the second last with a jumping error which typified his whole performance that day. Sam don't look good enough in the saddle to be blatantly honest on an inexperienced horse. I just think that at pace and at speed he will have his biggest test yet in the PP. Watch the race back, he gets all lit up in the field. I just can't say that 9/2 is value. I didn't want to put a grand on this guy after this study, I did before.

I've backed Great Endeavour. 33/1 he gave me my biggest ever win at the festival this year. The reason for me is very simple and three-fold. He has been targeted at this. He will not want for fitness but, quite differently from Long Run he is a natural jumper of fences - he makes a lovely shape. Last time I saw a novice jump the Cheltenham fences like that it was Imperial Commander.

7/1 GREAT ENDEAVOUR my call.

Jewson winner Copper Bleu interests me. Razor Royale could be a danger.
By:
harchibald
When: 19 Oct 10 19:53
Watch him over 2 miles at Stratford, first fence down the back a howler, penultimate down the back another bad jump, got himself into trouble with King Edmund, pulled out a good one at the second last and then engine gets him out of trouble nicely.

Iffy jumping though, talk about iffy .... this could spell curtains in the PP.
By:
harchibald
When: 19 Oct 10 19:54
Whoops WARWICK not Stratford sorry.
By:
stevo1
When: 20 Oct 10 17:14
Agree harchibald in Great Endeavour and Copper Bleu,allegedly Copper had slight setback see above but if making line up is big price!
By:
harchibald
When: 20 Oct 10 20:40
Poquelin has the power to beat Long Run, says Stewart
Simon Milham
20.10.10

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Poquelin's owner Andy Stewart says he isn't scared of taking on exciting chasing prospect Long Run in next month's Paddy Power Gold Cup, even if his horse has to give weight away.

The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding begins his campaign in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree on Saturday, with his next target being a clash with Nicky Henderson's rising star at Cheltenham.

The seven-year-old was beaten into second by Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last season and will have to concede 6lb to the current 4-1 favourite Long Run in the first major race of the jump season.

Stewart said: "I think that Long Run will go off a worthy favourite but in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham he clobbered the second last and I just feel that he is a horse that is a lot better over three miles on a flat track.

"In the bustle of a handicap around Cheltenham, I don't think that Long Run will win a Paddy Power. But given the right conditions, going right-handed and with good amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen aboard, he could win a King George."

With Ruby Walsh banned and 5lb claimer Ryan Mahon sidelined for up to two months with a broken collarbone, Stewart is on the lookout for a jockey on Saturday.

"Obviously if connections of top weight Albertas Run decide not to run at Aintree, we might see if we can get Tony McCoy," said Stewart. "I wouldn't dismiss anything."
By:
harchibald
When: 20 Oct 10 20:41
Story lends credence to my views on Long Run ... this said he'll probably bloody dot up !
By:
IC superstar
When: 21 Oct 10 21:26
Anyone know if mad max will run? Could have a good chance based on how well he performed at cheltenham (was going really well before falling), and aintree when upped in trip.any thoughts?
By:
Burghley
When: 22 Oct 10 08:28
Remind me when he fell at Cheltenham? He was travelling in the Arkle and clattered a fence at the top of the hill but stayed on to finish 3rd. I think he will run in the PP and is an absolute steal at the prices....
By:
alexmillwall
When: 22 Oct 10 09:29
poquelin is an under-estimated horse... travels supremely with a decent kick
By:
IC superstar
When: 22 Oct 10 11:14
mad max didn't fall,my bad, just blundered at the second last "death fence". Ground won't be an issue imo and with his price being 18.5 at the moment, he is great value. However, would like some assurance he'll run before tucking in!
By:
bigben
When: 25 Oct 10 15:56
Great Endeavour has shortened up with all the firms & on here today.

Does anybody know why? Or are people just getting on before the entries are released tommorrow?

Im glad i took some of the 7-1 Happy
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