Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 278 comments are related to the topic:
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP 2010 - OFFICIAL THREAD
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP 2010 - OFFICIAL THREAD
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 278
|
By:
against that did win a good race at chelt in the soft,that 2 mile 5 handicap after the pp,forget its name
|
|
By:
[;)]catch me if you can ??
is finger on the pulse definetly coming over, |
|
By:
Mad Max wind has been a big problem in the past... 4 ops I think. Nicky sounds like he is still concerned about it in RP stable tour today.
|
|
By:
Poquelin 1212 at Chelts last season. His 2nd to Tranquil Sea came on heavy ground under 11-1 so he can at least have place claims under 11-7 given he won the **** under 11-8 on soft in Dec.
Very consistent horse and 12/1 is serious over pricing. |
|
By:
9 Jockey bookings so far.............
Poquelin (FR) 7.g P.F.Nicholls 11st 12lb Ian Popham (5)Long Run (FR) 5.g N.J.Henderson 11st 6lb Mr S. Waley-Cohen (5)Mad Max (IRE) 8.g N.J.Henderson 11st 5lb Barry GeraghtyChaninbar (FR) 7.g M.F.Harris 11st 3lb Finger Onthe Pulse (IRE) 9.g T.J.Taaffe, Ireland 10st 11lb Tchico Polos (FR) 6.g P.F.Nicholls 10st 10lb Noel FehilyGwanako (FR) 7.g P.F.Nicholls 10st 10lb Little Josh (IRE) 8.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 10st 8lb The Sawyer (BEL) 10.g R.H.Buckler 10st 8lb Nathan Sweeney(7)Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8.g Jonjo O'Neill 10st 7lb Edgbriar (FR) 8.g P.R.Webber 10st 7lb Dominic ElsworthTatenen (FR) 6.g R. Rowe 10st 5lb Catch Me (GER) 8.g E.J.O'Grady, Ireland 10st 5lb A.J.McNamaraDancing Tornado (IRE) 9.g M.Hourigan, Ireland 10st 4lb Great Endeavour (IRE) 6.g D.E.Pipe 10st 4lb Sunnyhillboy (IRE) 7.g Jonjo O'Neill 10st 1lb Richie McLernon(3)Passato (GER) 6.g Miss J.S.Davis 10st 1lb Awesome George 6.g A.King 10st 0lb Fisher Bridge (IRE) 7.g N.Meade, Ireland 10st 0lb Door Boy (IRE) 7.g J.Howard Johnson 9st 13lb Brian Hughes ---------------------------------------------------------------- Pickamus (FR) 7.g H.D.Daly 9st 13lb Gonebeyondrecall (IRE) 7.g N.F.Glynn, Ireland 9st 12lb Pigeon Island 7.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 9st 11lb Il Duce (IRE) 10.g A.King 9st 8lb Rory Boy (USA) 5.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 9st 7lb Just Smudge 8.g Miss Venetia Williams 9st 6lb |
|
By:
Ooops....
Poquelin (FR) 7.g P.F.Nicholls 11st 12lb Ian Popham (5) Long Run (FR) 5.g N.J.Henderson 11st 6lb Mr S. Waley-Cohen (5) Mad Max (IRE) 8.g N.J.Henderson 11st 5lb Barry Geraghty Chaninbar (FR) 7.g M.F.Harris 11st 3lb Finger Onthe Pulse (IRE) 9.g T.J.Taaffe, Ireland 10st 11lb Tchico Polos (FR) 6.g P.F.Nicholls 10st 10lb Noel Fehily Gwanako (FR) 7.g P.F.Nicholls 10st 10lb Little Josh (IRE) 8.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 10st 8lb The Sawyer (BEL) 10.g R.H.Buckler 10st 8lb Nathan Sweeney(7) Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8.g Jonjo O'Neill 10st 7lb Edgbriar (FR) 8.g P.R.Webber 10st 7lb Dominic Elsworth Tatenen (FR) 6.g R. Rowe 10st 5lb Catch Me (GER) 8.g E.J.O'Grady, Ireland 10st 5lb A.J.McNamara Dancing Tornado (IRE) 9.g M.Hourigan, Ireland 10st 4lb Great Endeavour (IRE) 6.g D.E.Pipe 10st 4lb Sunnyhillboy (IRE) 7.g Jonjo O'Neill 10st 1lb Richie McLernon(3) Passato (GER) 6.g Miss J.S.Davis 10st 1lb Awesome George 6.g A.King 10st 0lb Fisher Bridge (IRE) 7.g N.Meade, Ireland 10st 0lb Door Boy (IRE) 7.g J.Howard Johnson 9st 13lb Brian Hughes ---------------------------------------------------------------- Pickamus (FR) 7.g H.D.Daly 9st 13lb Gonebeyondrecall (IRE) 7.g N.F.Glynn, Ireland 9st 12lb Pigeon Island 7.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 9st 11lb Il Duce (IRE) 10.g A.King 9st 8lb Rory Boy (USA) 5.g N.A.Twiston-Davies 9st 7lb Just Smudge 8.g Miss Venetia Williams 9st 6lb |
|
By:
Gwanako and Tatenen likely non runners according to owner.
|
|
By:
And "Gonebeyondrecall" (Tom O'Brien) runs at 4.05 on Friday.
ANYMORE likely NON-runners ??? |
|
By:
Anyone know if Dancing Tornado is def coming over? If he gets in a good round of jumping he would have to have a chance, confidence booster over hurdles last weekend
|
|
By:
Chaninbar has an alternative engagement at the meeting.
|
|
By:
I'm very sweet on Mad Max for this. He and Long Run basically have the same weight, so it comes down to who is the best on the day. If they were ridden by jockeys of equal merit it would be a close call, but LR has a massive handicap, and this is a really difficult race to get away with a less than top class jockey.
MM would have been a close 2nd in the Arkle if he hadn't might that mistake 2 out, he might even have won. He was hugely impressive at Aintree, and while there's a suspicion the opposition didn't show up, the bare facts are that he beat Sommersby a comfortable 9l, the Nightingale (hacked up in g2 at the weekend) 24l, and Othermix (2nd in Jewhurst) by about an hour and a half. Looked really classy doing it too. He's a major contender for championship races in the spring if he stays in one piece, and I think he's surprisingly well handicapped here. He's also very lightly raced and a huge horse, so open to further improvement this season even though he's already 8. At 12s in a place (Joe Cs) he's an absolute steal imho. In fact you could back ew, lay off the win part and have nearly the same price on him to be in the first 4 as for Long Run to win. Too good to miss. |
|
By:
Not sure I'd say the jockey is a massive handicap. I think Long Run's problem is more down to the horse than the jockey. Waley Cohen rides the National Course at Aintree as well as anyone and has won big fields handicaps at the Festival as well - I just think the horse is a somewhat dodgy jumper (maybe becuase he runs too free) a bit like Kauto in his early days. Clearly got a great engine though.
I'm not saying one of the really top Jockeys (Gerraghty, Walsh, Carberry etc) would not be preferable, but then Waley-Cphen's 5lb allowance does compensate for that. |
|
By:
I agree with all of the above apart from the very last line .
|
|
By:
Personally I think that this is going to be a penalty kick for Long Run. How can you doubt a horse who has had 15 runs, and has the following record:
Won 3x Grade Ones Won 2x Grade Twos Won 2x Grade Threes Has NEVER fallen. He could well make mistakes but it seems that when he does, he flicks through the fences like a typical french horse. He doesn't look like falling and it could be a saving grace that Mr Waley Cohen is riding him. Being an amateur he rides long in his stirrups. I have watched his English races in detail and when he makes mistakes Sam seems to flap his reins about but never looks like coming out of the saddle. He is now a second season chaser and should have improved his jumping from last year, which is to be expected. Sam also claims his 5lb allowance for the first time riding the horse so technically he is 5lbs well in within the handicap. There are obviously better jockeys that are riding in the race but I think that will only tell if it comes to a head to head bobbing finish and that's where the jockey's strength will show. The horse is usually keen in his races and it has never stopped him before so why should it this time? Long Run has only been seen for Mr Henderson over 2m and 3m. I think that 2m 4f will prove to be his optimum, how well was he going in the RSA with 5f to travel, I thought he was there with every chance. Surely this is worth another couple of lbs in his rating? The hustle and bustle of a big handicap could be a worry but he ran up against 12-14 runner fields in France so it shouldn't be too much of a culture shock for him. As long as Sam gives him a clear view of his fences I can't see him making a terminal error. We have to remember that he is only 5 now, he is obviously on the upgrade and has improved and grown over the winter. I think that by the end of the season this horse will be rated in the mid to high 170s so if he is as good as I think he is he should push this opposition to the side with a bit of ease before attempting to keep up with Kauto Star in the King George. The ground is no issue whatsoever and all this rain that is arriving can only benefit him surely, after a lot of Heavy ground wins in France. He has had experience at the course before so it isn't as if it will be a completely new experience to him. The freshness issue shouldn't be too much of a problem as Mr Henderson's horses are coming into form now and we all know that he does well during November. I think it will be an interesting race to watch with my money on because it is likely to contain the odd jumping error but I think he will cross the line infront, more than 5l clear. Initailly I thought that bookmakers would take the favourite on due to the amateur on board and the mistakes he sometimes makes, however I see this morning he is moving closer to 3/1 with them and could see him going off around the 5/2 mark come Saturday afternoon. I am getting on now at 7/2. Be Lucky |
|
By:
Hugh's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP, CHELTENHAM, SATURDAY 2pts each-way THE SAWYER (40-1 VC Bet, 33-1 general) The horse I’m interested in is THE SAWYER, who might lack the top-class pretensions of some of the field (though he did chase home the high-class pair Monet’s Garden and Alberta’s Run in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase in February), but has plenty of positive attributes for the race. He has an excellent record at Cheltenham, especially when the ground is on the soft side |
|
By:
Already posted on here a number of times how much i rate this horse & how far i believe he can go. Agree with your analysis in everyway (maybe tinted glasses....i don't believe it is) & just seeing signs of the guard changing this year (ruby unlucky injury & hen talk about kauto etc etc).....Offered 25/1 by b365 to £50 for paddy power/king george double......took it
|
|
By:
Wouldn't go that far. I think he will win the King George next year but not with Kauto in the race. I can't see Kauto ever getting beat around there, and the day he does I think it's time to put him in Clive Smith's back garden!
I kind of hope your not right but I think if any horse can beat Kauto I think Long Run is it. Decent price for the double there though! |
|
By:
To win the king george he'll have to run around a 180 as a 5yo which would be astonishing and world make him an instant superstar. Nacarat will be setting a fast pace and he'll need to be foot prefect in the jumping to live with Kauto at 4 out. Kauto no longer has the speed but he has buckets of stamina and class. He won't be stopping until the line. Long Run will be something else to finish with in 10l of Kauto.
|
|
By:
Hugh Taylor (ATR) gives the 'Kiss of Death' today to 'The Sawyer'
There’s nothing that I strongly fancy at today’s three meetings, so instead I’m going to suggest one for the big race on Saturday. The Paddy Power Gold Cup looks to have several classy, progressive types amongst the entries at the five-day stage and clearly the likes of Long Run, Great Endeavour , Catch Me and Mad Max fit the profile of the horse who could take this and go on to better things. However, at much bigger odds, there’s another far less “sexy” horse who, though much more exposed, might have plenty in his favour if the forecast rain comes and the race turns into more of a slog than a test of class. The horse I’m interested in is THE SAWYER, who might lack the top-class pretensions of some of the field (though he did chase home the high-class pair Monet’s Garden and Alberta’s Run in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase in February), but has plenty of positive attributes for the race. He has an excellent record at Cheltenham, especially when the ground is on the soft side — it was too quick for him when he finished a creditable ninth of 24 in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival in March, but prior to that had finished second to the well-handicapped Razor Royale on Saturday’s course before winning the Grade Three Betfair Trophy Handicap Chase (on the New course) for the second season running. He didn’t have the ground in his favour on his final two starts last season, and his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup was encouraging given he was always likely to struggle for pace over 2m2f against the likes of Tchico Polos, Twist Magic and Somersby. He helped set a fierce pace for the first half mile, and after being outpaced some way out, he stayed on well again in the straight, far from disgraced to be beaten less than 15l from 7lb out of the handicap, especially as he’s described as a stuffy, burly horse by his trainer and that was his seasonal reappearance. The Sawyer will be up against it if the ground dries out - indeed his trainer has stated he may not run, so ante-post punters need to bear this in mind - but at the moment that seems unlikely, with 11mm rain on Sunday night resulting in the going being described as good to soft, with more rain forecast on Wednesday night and Friday night, and if we have testing conditions on Saturday he’ll probably start a fair bit shorter than his odds this morning; he has won seven of his 20 career starts on soft or heavy going, whereas his only win in 22 starts on good to soft or faster came on his bumper debut. If the weather forecasts are correct, he could have his perfect conditions, whereas one or two of the classier types (Great Endeavour, Mad Max and Sonnhillboy are all in the first five in the betting but a case can be made for each that they are best on decent ground). At ¼ 1234 it looks worth chancing that The Sawyer will get his ideal conditions, and his regular rider Nathan Sweeney, who is excellent value for his 7lb claim, is already jocked up on him. |
|
By:
Master Minded posted a rating of 186 as a 5yo didn't he ? Even if that has turned out to be prententious it is not at all impossible for Long Run to do something similar imo.
|
|
By:
I've backed Catch Me at 16's and the more I look at his form, the more I think he's an outstanding chance. Long Run is clearly the most progressive horse in the field but Catch Me has maybe the best form in the book!
|
|
By:
Cant Buy Time
Had a speculative nibble. Stable on fire, course form - just hope McCoy will ride. |
|
By:
The Catch Me 1.4 backer appears pretty confident [smiley:crazy]
|
|
By:
in simple terms.
comparing the front two in long run and great endeavor, i would have the latter about 12 lb better in than the former, and jumps better, and has a better jockey and has won on the track at this trip. long run probably should be ridden from the front and i doubt they will but will appreciate a decent pace which is likely and what he did not get in the sun alliance, imo. so long run classy but plenty of weight for what its done. great endeavor well in (6lb) but in a better race today poosibly than at cheltenham which is the negative. all in all 5/1 on here for G.E. is a bet for me at the moment. |
|
By:
Hang on, WHAT? Catch Me has the best form in the book? Please explain that one.
|
|
By:
the catch me backers point to the run behind panda and weapons as being the best form on offer.....it isn't....it points to his potential...but the run itself isn't the best form on offer
|
|
By:
He has the best hurdle form on offer
 |
|
By:
Catch Me beaten less than 4 lengths by Weapons Amnesty. Long beaten more than 7 lengths by Weapons Amnesty in R.S.A.-both off level weights. Catch Me receives 10lbs from Long Run(including S.W.C 5lb allowance). As that infuriating little stoat like animal says "simples"
|
|
By:
Should be Long RUN
|
|
By:
I was there that day Catch Me wasn't even in the race before staying on at the end to nick 3rd from Lenebane. WA needs good ground and Pando wasn't fully fit that day as Meade had said, he missed planned work due to the freeze and didn't impress in his work at Dundalk. He was given time off after the race to freshen him up before the RSA.
Basically living off that form is guess work imo. I may be wrong about Catch Me but an not wrong about the merit of his run that day. Current odds are awful for him.Wouldn't touch him and his jumping is not the best either. Though he may have progressed since that Leopardstown run, but no evidence of that as yet. |
|
By:
Even I think CM isnt a great price now. He's a 12/1 shot imo.
|
|
By:
Also must admit he had no chance of winning that race at Leopardstown, he was 5th and uninvolved before China Rock bottomed out and Lenebane tired on the run in.
|
|
By:
Sorry guys but If Catch Me wins this ill retire from the forum.
Nice horse but he doesnt strike me as a horse that will enjoy Saturdays race conditions. |
|
By:
I agree I've seen nothing in Catch Me's chase form to suggest he should win this
|
|
By:
Cheltenham looks to have missed the rain as well so that won't help Catch Me.
|
|
By:
Will help my two Poquelin and Long Run.
|
|
By:
I think Long Run has a good chance, but there's way too many ifs and buts for me, it's not like he has stones in hand. I'm amazed more people don't fancy Mad Max, who has better form in the book and a much better jockey. At the very least I can not see how you can think that Long Run to win is more likely than MM to be in the first 4. But it's all about opinions I guess, and I would concede that if he irons out his jumping issues and develops from 5 to 6, LR could be anything. Good luck to anyone who's backed him.
Who's going to the meeting this year? I can't quite decide, I know I should be working, but .... I'm guessing it's going to be quieter this year because I can't remember there ever being such a good choice of hotels at this stage! |
|
By:
to the catch me haters can't wait to catch you on this thread after the race :)
|
|
By:
abbott. Always respect your opinion, so surprised you are so dogmatic.
Why do you feel so strongly the 'race conditions'; wont suit him? |
|
By:
Two of EOG's most exciting youngsters out tomorrow. A couple of winners would be nice for the confidence
|