PADDY POWER GOLD CUP 2010 - OFFICIAL THREAD

Master Minded posted a rating of 186 as a 5yo didn't he ? Even if that has turned out to be prententious it is not at all impossible for Long Run to do something similar imo.

I've backed Catch Me at 16's and the more I look at his form, the more I think he's an outstanding chance. Long Run is clearly the most progressive horse in the field but Catch Me has maybe the best form in the book!

Cant Buy Time

Had a speculative nibble. Stable on fire, course form - just hope McCoy will ride.

The Catch Me 1.4 backer appears pretty confident [smiley:crazy]

in simple terms.
comparing the front two in long run and great endeavor, i would have the latter about 12 lb
better in than the former, and jumps better, and has a better jockey and has won on the track at this trip.  long run probably should be ridden from the front and i doubt they will but will appreciate a decent pace which is likely and what he did not get in the sun alliance, imo.
so long run classy but plenty of weight for what its done.
great endeavor well in (6lb) but in a better race today poosibly than at cheltenham which is the negative.
all in all 5/1 on here for G.E. is a bet for me
at the moment.

Hang on, WHAT? Catch Me has the best form in the book? Please explain that one.

the catch me backers point to the run behind panda and weapons as being the best form on offer.....it isn't....it points to his potential...but the run itself isn't the best form on offer

He has the best hurdle form on offer

Catch Me beaten less than 4 lengths by Weapons Amnesty. Long beaten more than 7 lengths by Weapons Amnesty in R.S.A.-both off level weights. Catch Me receives 10lbs from Long Run(including S.W.C 5lb allowance). As that infuriating little stoat like animal says "simples"

Should be Long RUN

I was there that day Catch Me wasn't even in the race before staying on at the end to nick 3rd from Lenebane. WA needs good ground and Pando wasn't fully fit that day as Meade had said, he missed planned work due to the freeze and didn't impress in his work at Dundalk. He was given time off after the race to freshen him up before the RSA.

Basically living off that form is guess work imo. I may be wrong about Catch Me but an not wrong about the merit of his run that day.

Current odds are awful for him.Wouldn't touch him and his jumping is not the best either. Though he may have progressed since that Leopardstown run, but no evidence of that as yet.

Even I think CM isnt a great price now. He's a 12/1 shot imo.

Also must admit he had no chance of winning that race at Leopardstown, he was 5th and uninvolved before China Rock bottomed out and Lenebane tired on the run in.

Sorry guys but If Catch Me wins this ill retire from the forum.

Nice horse but he doesnt strike me as a horse that will enjoy Saturdays race conditions.

I agree I've seen nothing in Catch Me's chase form to suggest he should win this

Cheltenham looks to have missed the rain as well so that won't help Catch Me.

Will help my two Poquelin and Long Run.

I think Long Run has a good chance, but there's way too many ifs and buts for me, it's not like he has stones in hand. I'm amazed more people don't fancy Mad Max, who has better form in the book and a much better jockey. At the very least I can not see how you can think that Long Run to win is more likely than MM to be in the first 4. But it's all about opinions I guess, and I would concede that if he irons out his jumping issues and develops from 5 to 6, LR could be anything. Good luck to anyone who's backed him.

Who's going to the meeting this year? I can't quite decide, I know I should be working, but ....
I'm guessing it's going to be quieter this year because I can't remember there ever being such a good choice of hotels at this stage!

to the catch me haters can't wait to catch you on this thread after the race :)

abbott. Always respect your opinion, so surprised you are so dogmatic.

Why do you feel so strongly the 'race conditions'; wont suit him?

Two of EOG's most exciting youngsters out tomorrow. A couple of winners would be nice for the confidence

Not a hater, just think everyone is totally misreading his only bit of potential decent form in the knight frank. He may win, but it will be down to unseen improvement since last year if he does. I'll also be astonished.

It wont be down to 'unseen' improvement cvb.

He's the classiest hurdler in the field, and hasnt had the chance to match that over fences yet. And certainly not over his best trip.

Well I saw him at Leopardstown that day, he snatched 3rd. Totally unimpressive, he's had one prep over 2m since then.

The key to Catch Me is the ground. At the moment it looks as if he won't have it soft enough.

When will we get the final decs? Thursday?

He hardly snatched 3rd got bumped about something terrible, whatyouthink squeezed up by whatuthink before nearly being brought down when coolpotts fell, lost alot of ground there.

I will take a chance on Mad Max being fit enough.Think he is best horse in the race and jumping is a lot better than Long Run.Will be difficult,but then its a competitive handicap,and a small bet only i think.

As for Catch Me - child of mine only said he maybe have the best form,it werent a definite statement,and a few unwarranted responses imo.After all strictly on the form with Weapons Amnesty he is better in then the fav!! So justified in saying MAYBE imo.

To be fair bud how can you say max's jumping is better than long run? The later was very you last season and has grown. Max's arkle run would have me worried a bit. I like the horse and will have a nibble if he continues to drift.

But many of these horses are going on potential and improvement. Poquelin us the only proper consistent open company chaser over the distance in the field.

It'll be a fascinating race.

Is Sunnyhill Boy a definate runner ?

Poquelin
1,2,1,2 around Cheltenham
won the **** carrying 11-8 by seven lengths
ground will be perfect
fit and ready for its run at Aintree
good claiming jockey taking 5lb off
fits almost all the trends for this race
definate runner
available at 15/1 on here each way for four places

just has to jump round now

^^B oylesports

Sorry mate but looking at the horse I cant see that after only 4 Chase starts in Ireland he will be suited by the hustle and bustle of this race. Hes not the only one of the fancied runners I worry that him long run and Mad Max will all struggle with their jumping come saturday.
Its not that I dont think he is a good horse or well in at the weights as I do, I just think like a few he will struggle early on and he may not get a chance to be involved at the business end.

Abbott i take it you are refering to Catch Me ^^^

yes mate

Any plans for your Cheltenham forum next year Abbott

Not as yet mate. Im toying with the idea of moving it as it was a bit cramped last year and there isnt much room if any more people turn up this year.
I would think Brown, Howard and Turner should be there, poss get Scu back again. Id like to get Joe McNally back if available and will be looking at poss geting somebody new just to freshen it  up. Will also try and mix up the phone interviews though David Pipe will hopefully be availble again.

thanks mate, a bigger venue may cause you even more stress than last year

Long Run is the best horse in the race and has a very good racing weight, Little Josh is a very likely improver too. Long Run is value and i think he will go off very short on the day

Probably lol
I just dont want to get to the stage where people cant get in. Will start sorting it out next month.

CV,last season watching both horses i came to the conclusion that Mad Max looked the more natural jumper out the 2.I only saw one mistake,in the arkle.Long run i thought looked rather clumsy at his fences to me.

Poquelin will be fit and that could make the difference,thats why i said i would take the chance on Mad Max fitnes.I happen to think Mad Max will prove to be the better horse this season,so if he is fit i think he has a great chance.

Long Run is a superb price and Poquelin to Place are the best bets of the race by a country mile.

LR is value? LR is a superb price? He's alot of things but neither of those (imo)

Agree Reyes,Long Run no value for me either.

Declarations out tomorrow.

Just written my preview of the race on my blog given below, if you want a read...

http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/

Any thoughts appreciated.

Cheers EC

nice work ex con

Im a big pigeon island fan aswell and theres alot of plus points, plenty of experience around cheltenham. The only thing that worries me about him is that he might not get a chance to get into the race but can see him staying on strongest up the hill about 3rd or 4th.

Good write up Ex Con, and I agree with most of it. Think it all hinges on Long Run's jumping. I know your selection is primarily stats based, but I have a keen interest in Mad Max too, and think he could take this, if anything happened to Long Run. The stats are quite poersuasive in Great Endeavour's favour though, so he's one to be respected.

Enjoyed reading the postings so far.

My shortlist: Catch Me, Long Run, Great Endeavour, Mad Max, and Sunnyhill Boy.

Have bet Catch Me - I know,Iknow for the Stats purists he is told old - but has got a real racing wieht and his jump rating is still below his hurdle rating so there is potential for improvement. Sunnyhill Boy is to my mind the value in the race.

Goodluck to everyone.

Sky bet don't have the following priced up in their odds, so maybe defections at latest stage:

Tatenen
Il Duce
Fisher Bridge
Chaninbar
Pickamus

So that would leave 21 left in.

20 left in, add Just Smudge to above list of absentees.

I thought it was 24 hour decs with national hunt

Nice too he is just squeaked in. Got Paddy on aswell as the blinkers being put on, so all looks set for a good run.

Cracking card at Cheltenham tomorrow. Cue Card's got some good opposition with Dunraven Storm and King of the Night among others in the field. And what a novice chase - Reve De Sivola, Time For Rupert, Mr Thriller, Othermix and Quantitiveasing!

nice to see he just squeaked in*!

Glad that Edgbriar was given the chance by Webber

had a horrible feeling he was going to wait for Aintree with him.

Amazing racing this weekend at Cheltenham! Can King of The Night pip Cue Card?

Safari Journey looks a different horse with the blinkers on, could hack up.

Backed Hell's bay last month and can't believe he came 5th given how he was traveling the best coming round the home turn. Maybe the hill wasn't to his liking, but surely a less stamina sapping 2m4 tomorrow will see Hell's bay in the mix at the finish?  Reve de Sivola will be the main danger in that race imo. Goes well fresh,on any ground and at Cheltenham. Plus he'll be racing over his best distance. Lets hope he takes to the larger obstacles!

Good luck to everyone going to the open

i think Edgbriar has an excellent chance and it must be backed ew.

happy with my 8s Great Endeavour and 14s Catch Me, saver on Mad Max all done, good luck all!

My tissue

poqualin 8/1
long run 6/1
mad max 18/1
tchico polos 11/1
fingeronthepulse 20/1
gwanko 20/1
little josh 33/1
the sawyer 66/1
cantbuytime 20/1
edgbrier 20/1
catch me 25/1
dancing tornado 80/1
great endeavour 12/1
sunnyhill boy 16/1
passato 18/1
awesome george 20/1
door boy 20/1
gonebeyondrecall 66/1
pigeon island 50/1
rory boy 25/1
103.19% book

i'm sure alot will strongly dissagree, but my tissues normally keep me outta the poor house by backing anything 15% higher than my prices!

Gwankano is overpriced imo @ 33/1 with 5 places paid. It was a good performance to come 5th under 11-8 in the Plate at the festival and effectively fell in his last 2 runs. If he gets a good round in he can easily make a place. Talented horse just too many jumping problems.

He's been added e/w as my 3rd horse instead of Max who's price seems to be coming in too much for my liking.

I recall Gwanako running a blinder in the Ryanair a couple of years ago. He just got outclassed at the finish behind Voy Por and only backed him because of Nicholl's record in the race. Cant remember what his recent form is like so will have a look now, interesting shout CVbyrne.

That was an 8l defeat to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair last year

Last 4 runs, all at Cheltenham.

**** off top weight - "held up towards rear, headway, in touch 12th, blundered badly 4 out, unable to recove"

Plate ff 11-8 - "held up in rear, headway 12th, chased leading pair after 3 out to next, soon ridden and one pace"

Silver Trophy Chase Cheltenham - "led until after 3rd, led next, narrow advantage when hit 3 out, crumpled on landing and headed, not recover"

Cheltenham Oct 16ht top weight - "chased leaders, ridden after 3 out, disputing close 4th when fell 2 out"

Jumping is clearly a problem, but if and of course it's a big if, he has a good round he has the talent to make the frame. 10-10 is a fair weight for a horse used to shouldering 11-12. He will enjoy the goodish ground and with PaddyP offering 5 places and currently best odds guaranteed, there's worse horses to back than him e/w @ 33/1 imo.

**** is Boylesp0rts

I fancy Pigeon Island to do the same as he did at the festival earlier in the year. Creep into contention and bound clear after the last. For a horse with his hurdles ability he has no weight at all. Very under rated in my opinion.

I shall be having a few pennies on Pigeon as well,big price,and could well figure.

pigeon did that over 2miles at the festival.
i doubt it will stay on aswell as then.

He has won a handicap hurdle over 2m 5 so I don't see that being a problem at all. In fact I think the longer distance will suit the horse as he wasn't exactly stopping at Cheltenham.

CVByrne, I'm all over Gwanako. Mentioned him earlier on this thread I think. Was praying he was entered.

Small horse so needs to carry low weights. This is the lowest weight he has carried in this country I think. Every race he lugs 11st 6lb and above and the weight is too much at the death against progressive low weights. Have a look at his win record when he carries under 11st to that above 11st.

I've backed him at 100 ante post and again at 55 now. He should be 20's tops. His fall ratio is my biggest worry, but I don't think the field bar the obvious few is that strong.

My one wish was that Popham had ridden him and taken another 5lb off. 10st 3lb would have seen me delirious!!!

sorry 10st 5lb with Popham on I meant!!

From BJG ATR Blog:

I always think that you know the real jump season is on us with the arrival of the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham and it’s good to know you have a fighting chance of winning that big race and a few more besides.

I know one thing; I wouldn’t be fielding outside of Nicky Henderson’s team to supply the winner of the big one on Saturday.

I have a very live chance on MAD MAX and then there’s Long Run who could really be anything he wants to be, an aeroplane!

What I can tell you is that Mad Max is in flying form. I was over for a big schooling morning on Thursday and shot Mad Max over five fences and, if you’ll pardon me for using the language of the weighing room, you’d have thought his ass was on fire!

He was very, very quick, really winged them, and that’s how he likes to be. He races like that, too, full on.

He is on good terms with himself and looks an absolute picture and he has a realistic chance in a very tough handicap — harder than the one Poquelin was second in last year. And although he did really well to be second for me at Aintree last time and the good ground will help, I think he has plenty on with top weight.

Mad Max is good fresh — he’s won first time out the last three seasons and would have been closer then fourth in the Arkle had he not hit the second last.

This is a much more suitable trip for him as he showed when he won at Aintree, the decent ground is perfect and his wind is sounding good. I do expect a very good performance.

But I am under no illusion about the capabilities of Long Run — I’ve seen plenty of him.

Realistically he could be thrown in but in a competitive race like this things will have to go his way because he was a bit novicey — which was to be expected — when he was third in the RSA Chase at the Festival. It will be very important that Sam Waley Cohen, who knows him well enough, gets him into a nice rhythm.

But I’d have to say that if things do go right for him on Saturday, then he’ll be near impossible to beat.

Chucked a couple quid at
door boy

hey ho!!!

Can see Door Boy in the frame.

edgbriar - live outsider at 40s+
- loves cheltenham
- gave midnight chase weight and a beating here behind hey big spender last year
- good current form with lto course win
6/1 for first four looks fair

That was some performance.

Yeah, bubble burst with Long Run.

for me it just keeps catching fences. Either takes on Big Bucks or they get a decent jock

Yeah time to get a real jock on board. Still he's ony 5 he has plenty of improvement.

To think some people on here were saying he was going to beat Kauto Star in the King George.

Not sure why the jockey is attracting criticism tbh. It's the horse who needs to sortout his jumping.

agree sint, horse loses at least a length almost every fence in pretty much every race its run yet its the jockeys fault...

He is an easy target Lieutenant, unfair really,imo. Truth is there is no blame to lie with anyone, the horse just cant jump you'd hope.he needs more practice,experience and time to develop.imo

i think the idea is that someone like geraghty would be able to do something from the saddle that gets the horse to pick his feet up

I'm not blaming the jock for the horses jumping. But it's stupid to have such an inexperienced jockey on board such a tricky ride. Geraghty should be aboard.

good performance by little josh made it a true test of stamina from the get go. Still a slow boat though.

Makes a relatively unfit Weird Al's performance look pretty good now, giving 6lbs to Little Josh.

Wasn't that race the one Exotic Dancer got stuffed in before winning the Paddy Power?

weird al backed for hen

yes Joci, also the same race L'antartique won pre-Paddy Power glory

Strange that, as it's normally a relatively small field, uncompetitive chase.

brooksielad,be a man &say you were wrong

That Little Josh must be a tough cookie, as it apperared he had a very hard race when dead-heating with Weird Al a short while ago.

Tha Nicholls winner of the Triumph trial could be anything. He looked a future Gold Cup horse to me!

Ok, so a 3yo who won his debut in england over hurdles is a gold cup winner in the making?? Seriously that is such a stupid statement. Utter nonsense.

Sorry but it is.

CVB. You've got an attitude problem imo. Convinced you know better than everyone else.

The horse is in every way a chaser in the making. I saw him close up. Oh and hapened to speak to the owners after the race. I'll tell them what you said and that they have their horse all wrong.

Attitude problem? Grow up mate I am just giving my opinion. I admit when I'm wrong. If I'm proved wrong. Which has happened many times before.

But I simply don't like him over fences, was a supported of his over hurdles. Stop being so defensive.

Sorry wrong thread, thought this was about catch me.

I mean how can a horse who's had one hurdle race as a 3yo look like a gold cup winner. Honestly? It's such a silly statement, it'll be 4 years before he would run in a Gold Cup.

I was giving an opinion and you called me 'silly' and 'utter nonsense'. I think you are the one that needs to grow up.

I didnt say he'd win it next season did I? He looks like a chaser already. He's only a 3 yr old.

And why have you said you thought this was a thread about Catch Me?

I posted a reply in two threads a minute or two apart. Thought you were responding to my post in the other thread.

Look, he's had 1 hurdle race as a 3yo in England. Nobody can see from that a potential Gold Cup horse. It's impossible, chaser yes, but Gold Cup level of talent? We have no idea how much talent he has. I'm sorry but your opinion deserved ridicule.

Just watched the race back a few times.the same kind of ride Imperial Commander was given in this 2 years ago right up there making it a race from the start. It was quite impressive actually. His jumping was excellent.

Anbody that feels they need to ridicule somebody for having an opinion needs to sort themself out imo.