Horse Antepost
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This years crop of 2 year olds is one of the strongest I can remember, and to have one horse, Frankel, as low as 2/1 for the 2000 Guineas is beyond ridiculous. Despite what this horse has achieved to date, how can anybody possibly back him at such low odds with a list of other top class 2yr olds as long as my arm.
Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express, all of whom are top class 2yr olds in their own right.
St Nicholas Abbey had the same hype as Frankel this time last year, and he was also rated 123(RPR) on his third ever outing (also unbeaten like Frankel) and look what happened to him.
Frankel is the biggest lay of the century at 2/1 and I filled my boots accordingly.
Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express, all of whom are top class 2yr olds in their own right.
St Nicholas Abbey had the same hype as Frankel this time last year, and he was also rated 123(RPR) on his third ever outing (also unbeaten like Frankel) and look what happened to him.
Frankel is the biggest lay of the century at 2/1 and I filled my boots accordingly.
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Replies: 122
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You might be slightly hasty in laying him just now at 2's.
If I was going to lay him, and I won't be personally, I would wait until he bolts up next week after which he will be even shorter.... |
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Yes, I intend to top up should he win the Dewhurst. I have already read the article in the Racing Post saying he will probably go on odds on should he win in style.
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Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express....
At least 4 of that group of 7 will never win a Group 1 race at 3, so that reduces the credible opposition already |
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please post your lay ta
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 I mean I'm not a layer but I can see the appeal. From now until the Guineas is a long time. Surely When you take that into account and if he improves at all over the winter there are a lot of risks involved backing him already. I've never been a fan of antepost on the flat as decisions and opinions of horses can change soooo much. He might go odds on if he wins but I doubt it will last long. I would want evens for a horse to turn up that far away. I will be waiting until the day. |
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That RP article about him going odds on is hilarious . What a bookies advert; subtext, back him now cos he'll be shorter next week.
WALOFS. I think you need yer head read if you wanna back him this weekend at current odds let alone for the Guineas. Even if he did win this weekend and go odds on, it would still look like a terrible bet. This is a classic case of value vs blind idiocy. |
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yep totally agree^
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They say he already looks like a 3yo which could be a bad sign
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signed in...
beat trees including a the gosden horse by a neck or something first time out,thats beeb beaten since,beat a screw of o briens last time,dream ahead beat some very smart animals on the bridle,beat a coventry winner by 10 lenghts LAY OF THE CENTURY |
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neill d Joined: 19 Aug 09
Replies: 746 11 Oct 10 00:01 They say he already looks like a 3yo which could be a bad sign They also said that about Zafonic..........remember? |
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nope, before my time but if recent history is anything to go by (Rainbow View and St Nick both weren't big individuals)also St Nick and Rainbow were clearly the best 2yo around when these short prices for next years Classics were bandied about, we don't even know if he is the best yet. 2/1 aint much of a price for the Guineas although I've heard Gosden refer to it as the last 2yo race and I won't be laying it
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legend100 Joined: 02 Jun 10
Replies: 1095 11 Oct 10 03:04 signed in... beat trees including a the gosden horse by a neck or something first time out,thats beeb beaten since,beat a screw of o briens last time,dream ahead beat some very smart animals on the bridle,beat a coventry winner by 10 lenghts LAY OF THE CENTURY post yer lay please ta |
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you're very nosey mythical
why should people show you their bets |
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I notice mythical prince has not posted his bet
 Shocking that anyone can get off over Frankel winning a mickey mouse race last time out beating a 103 rated, exposed rag. |
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well i notice you haven't posted yours either
call it a mexican stand-off |
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saturday we'll see something very special indeed from frankel. in years to come we'll all be talking in hushed tones the day we saw THAT performance.
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I take it you have already backed Frankel in the Guineas? Thanks in advance for your money
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well yeah i'm sure you would be if you'd actually laid it.. but i rather suspect you haven't
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LoL believe what you like, I know what I have laid. And I don't have to prove myself by posting my bet, just so I can satisfy the likes of yourself
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surely if you have laid him for the guineas you've done the same for the dewhurst?
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jay..b# 12 Oct 10 19:05
I notice mythical prince has not posted his bet Shocking that anyone can get off over Frankel winning a mickey mouse race last time out beating a 103 rated, exposed rag. jb, if you describing the Group 2 Royal Lodge a mickey mouse race...... and a 10 length beating of a 103 horse .... as "shocking", maybe suggest reversing your lay bet as quietly as you can? |
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pedro
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Frankel is currently 3.25 for the Guineas. Laying him at that price does not exactly fit my definition of "Balls of Steel"
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not too late to lay off for a loss
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Lay Frankel Win & Place In The Dewhurst (Official Layers Thread)
jay..b# Joined: 25 Dec 07 Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:25 FRANKEL will be FINNISH after today. jay..b# Joined: 25 Dec 07 Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:32 mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06 Replies: 1783 16 Oct 10 17:28 not too late to lay off for a loss i think he's lost enough. and not just money. |
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of course. he's nailed on for the guineas. however imv the guineas is always the best trial for the derby and the old saying about if youre nailed on to the the trip then youre probably too slow still holds. [;)]
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Trouble is, given that connections also doubt Frankel's stamina, he may be aimed at the French Derby over ten furlongs rather than Epsom's twelve.
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I'll lay Frankel for a few hundred a month between now and May.
Why? He is by a middle distance sire. An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now. Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field. Three of his four runs had soft in the description. Short price. |
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Kincsem,
He is by a middle distance sire - but clocked a blistering 11.1 sec furlong at AScot in the Royal Lodge in the penultimate furlong, probably the fastest furlong by any 2yo at any distance this season An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now. - Someone mentioned earlier that John Gosden calls the Guineas the last 2yo race, so need the physical development now Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field. - not slow away, would suggests been restrained by Queally to get cover as nothing can go fast enough to give a lead. Cecil will have pacemakers in 2011 so can be ridden prominently off a decent pace Three of his four runs had soft in the description. - 2 of the 4 races (Ascot and Doncaster) were run on Good ground on my going correction Short price. - agreed. But stopped a lot of people backing a winner today including Graham Cunningham who couldn't let a dual Grp 1 winner go off unbacked at 3/1 - this ignoring the obvious. Suspect your lay will rest on Frankel not showing up. Doubt he will have to improve much, if any, to win the Guineas now. |
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Pedrobob, do you remember Xaar?
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Do you remember St Nicholas Abbey?
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all you are betting on is the ground being decent given good ground nothing will get near him.
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Amazing what the price of a horse can do in terms of judging the ability of an animal. Now watched the tape back a few times and I am more impressed with that performance yesterday, despite the other two main protaganists failing to run their race.
Cons Lost a length or two at the start after being hampered Spotted the 2nd at least 2 or 3 easy lengths in the process Proceeded to pull too hard for the first few furlongs Arguably saw too much daylight on the outside which looked to contribute to him failing to settle Forfeited ground on the placed horses by finishing about 3 or 4 horse widths wider than when starting his effort after the two pole And despite this he made up ground effortlessly between 3 and 2 out, watch it again....the horse got to the front himself, Queally had barely asked him for any effort at that stage and didn't shake his reigns up until after 2 out. And he never once resorted to hitting him with the whip. Looks to me like better ground and a faster pace again will also suit the horse. What is not to like about this horse ? |
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Figgis/kincsem, agree there is a possibility that Frankel may be fully grown (like Xaar and St Nicholas Abbey) and this as good as he is. Didn't think SNA grew at all over the winter judged on the one time we saw him in the Guineas. Trying to remember an image of Xaar, wasn't he a smallish type who also didn't physically develop after 2 or I am thinking of the wrong horse?
His trainer has also had 2yo champions who never went on at 3, someone listed them somewhere including Diesis, Dunbeath, Keen, High Estate etc. So of course it could happen to Frankel. Let's hope not. As PFTrader pointed out, a lot went wrong for the horse yesterday, and as well as class, he's shown a lot of determination. Too many times we see the former come without the latter. Many are saying he won't stay the Derby trip because he shows so much speed and pulls too hard. Trainer and jockey both said they had done a lot of work to rectify that and were unfortunately undone in the melee at the start caused by Waiters Dream/Fallon going right causing Dream Ahead to edge out and avoid him. But he settled very well off a slower pace at Ascot, and with the help of pacemakers in 2011 and more time to teach him to relax, every chance that he will stay the Derby trip. Normally we would have no such doubts about a horse who won over a mile/soft ground on debut in August of his 2yo year? According to Craig Thake in yesterdays RP, the last Dewhurst winner to have raced over further than 7f was Generous 20 years ago. Have rated Roderic O'Connor as a massive improver, Glor Na MAra/Waiters Dream up around 3lbs each and Frankel 4lbs up on his Doncaster figure. Nothing spectacular, but as above, a lot went wrong for him yesterday and Queally has done nothing but push him out. Think we all want to see a champion, hopefully he has plenty to come. |
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Pedrobob
On my figures, without any wfa improvement factored in, Frankel would've dead heated with this year's Guineas winner, Makfi. Now Makfi wasn't up there with the best Guineas winners but he was decent. I'd say that it was pretty spectacular for a 2yo to be that good already. I obviously don't doubt Frankel's current ability but I think anybody who sees this horse as a future betting prospect (who isn't on at fancy prices already) needs their head testing. I have usually found that 2yos as precocious as him don't improve much the following season, whatever their size. It's true that he might not need to improve to land the Guineas. If he just stays where he's at then one of the others is going to have to improve a fair bit (hardly impossible though as I don't think Makfi was rated very highly as a 2yo). The problem though with a horse that's not going forwards is he might not just stay where he is, he could easily go backwards. Horses like Xaar, Armiger (another of Cecil's) SNA, Alhaarth, etc, that put up excellent performances as 2yos didn't just fail to improve, they regressed. I'd say Frankel's best chance of landing another Group 1 will be at the early part of his 3yo season. The chances of him carrying all before him throughout the year, like STS (a horse that made good improvement from 2 to 3) are very slim. |
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once jouralists get a horse
to HYPE...HYPE...HYPE... DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL... |