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jay..b#
10 Oct 10 19:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Dec 07
| Topic/replies: 834 | Blogger: jay..b#'s blog
This years crop of 2 year olds is one of the strongest I can remember, and to have one horse, Frankel, as low as 2/1 for the 2000 Guineas is beyond ridiculous. Despite what this horse has achieved to date, how can anybody possibly back him at such low odds with a list of other top class 2yr olds as long as my arm.

Dream Ahead, Saamidd, Wootton Bassett, Strong Suit, Zoffany, Pathfork & Dunboyne Express, all of whom are top class 2yr olds in their own right.

St Nicholas Abbey had the same hype as Frankel this time last year, and he was also rated 123(RPR) on his third ever outing (also unbeaten like Frankel) and look what happened to him.

Frankel is the biggest lay of the century at 2/1 and I filled my boots accordingly.
Pause Switch to Standard View Frankel to get stuffed in the Guineas...
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Report Masterminded October 12, 2010 11:14 PM BST
LaughPlainShocked
Report mythical prince October 13, 2010 1:25 AM BST
pedro Laugh
Report Dark Destroyer October 13, 2010 8:33 AM BST
Frankel is currently 3.25 for the Guineas. Laying him at that price does not exactly fit my definition of "Balls of Steel" Laugh
Report mythical prince October 16, 2010 5:28 PM BST
not too late to lay off for a loss Laugh
Report tons of sobs October 16, 2010 7:47 PM BST
Lay Frankel Win & Place In The Dewhurst (Official Layers Thread)   


jay..b# Joined: 25 Dec 07
Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:25   

FRANKEL will be FINNISH after today.

jay..b#
Joined: 25 Dec 07
Replies: 348 16 Oct 10 12:32 

mythical prince
Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1783 16 Oct 10 17:28   
not too late to lay off for a loss 


i think he's lost enough.

and not just money.Laugh
Report mythical prince October 16, 2010 7:50 PM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report mythical prince October 16, 2010 7:52 PM BST
of course. he's nailed on for the guineas. however imv the guineas is always the best trial for the derby and the old saying about if youre nailed on to the the trip then youre probably too slow still holds. [;)]
Report Ramruma October 16, 2010 8:01 PM BST
Trouble is, given that connections also doubt Frankel's stamina, he may be aimed at the French Derby over ten furlongs rather than Epsom's twelve.
Report kincsem October 17, 2010 1:02 AM BST
I'll lay Frankel for a few hundred a month between now and May.

Why?

He is by a middle distance sire.
An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now.
Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field.
Three of his four runs had soft in the description.
Short price.
Report pedrobob October 17, 2010 1:11 AM BST
Kincsem,

He is by a middle distance sire - but clocked a blistering 11.1 sec furlong at AScot in the Royal Lodge in the penultimate furlong, probably the fastest furlong by any 2yo at any distance this season
An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now. - Someone mentioned earlier that John Gosden calls the Guineas the last 2yo race, so need the physical development now
Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field. - not slow away, would suggests been restrained by Queally to get cover as nothing can go fast enough to give a lead. Cecil will have pacemakers in 2011 so can be ridden prominently off a decent pace
Three of his four runs had soft in the description. - 2 of the 4 races (Ascot and Doncaster) were run on Good ground on my going correction
Short price. - agreed. But stopped a lot of people backing a winner today including Graham Cunningham who couldn't let a dual Grp 1 winner go off unbacked at 3/1 - this ignoring the obvious.

Suspect your lay will rest on Frankel not showing up. Doubt he will have to improve much, if any,  to win the Guineas now.
Report Figgis October 17, 2010 1:44 AM BST
Pedrobob, do you remember Xaar?
Report kincsem October 17, 2010 2:11 AM BST
Do you remember St Nicholas Abbey?
Report the lay preacher October 17, 2010 9:13 AM BST
all you are betting on is the ground being decent given good ground nothing will get near him.
Report PFtrader October 17, 2010 9:18 AM BST
Amazing what the price of a horse can do in terms of judging the ability of an animal. Now watched the tape back a few times and I am more impressed with that performance yesterday, despite the other two main protaganists failing to run their race.

Cons
Lost a length or two at the start after being hampered
Spotted the 2nd at least 2 or 3 easy lengths in the process
Proceeded to pull too hard for the first few furlongs
Arguably saw too much daylight on the outside which looked to contribute to him failing to settle
Forfeited ground on the placed horses by finishing about 3 or 4 horse widths wider than when starting his effort after the two pole

And despite this he made up ground effortlessly between 3 and 2 out, watch it again....the horse got to the front himself, Queally had barely asked him for any effort at that stage and didn't shake his reigns up until after 2 out. And he never once resorted to hitting him with the whip. Looks to me like better ground and a faster pace again will also suit the horse.

What is not to like about this horse ?
Report pedrobob October 17, 2010 11:17 AM BST
Figgis/kincsem, agree there is a possibility that Frankel may be fully grown (like Xaar and St Nicholas Abbey) and this as good as he is. Didn't think SNA grew at all over the winter judged on the one time we saw him in the Guineas. Trying to remember an image of Xaar, wasn't he a smallish type who also didn't physically develop after 2 or I am thinking of the wrong horse?

His trainer has also had 2yo champions who never went on at 3, someone listed them somewhere including Diesis, Dunbeath, Keen, High Estate etc. So of course it could happen to Frankel.

Let's hope not. As PFTrader pointed out, a lot went wrong for the horse yesterday, and as well as class, he's shown a lot of determination. Too many times we see the former come without the latter.

Many are saying he won't stay the Derby trip because he shows so much speed and pulls too hard. Trainer and jockey both said they had done a lot of work to rectify that and were unfortunately undone in the melee at the start caused by Waiters Dream/Fallon going right causing Dream Ahead to edge out and avoid him.

But he settled very well off a slower pace at Ascot, and with the help of pacemakers in 2011 and more time to teach him to relax, every chance that he will stay the Derby trip. Normally we would have no such doubts about a horse who won over a mile/soft ground on debut in August of his 2yo year?

According to Craig Thake in yesterdays RP, the last Dewhurst winner to have raced over further than 7f was Generous 20 years ago.

Have rated Roderic O'Connor as a massive improver, Glor Na MAra/Waiters Dream up around 3lbs each and Frankel 4lbs up on his Doncaster figure. Nothing spectacular,  but as above, a lot went wrong for him yesterday and Queally has done nothing but push him out. Think we all want to see a champion, hopefully he has plenty to come.
Report Figgis October 17, 2010 11:41 AM BST
Pedrobob

On my figures, without any wfa improvement factored in, Frankel would've dead heated with this year's Guineas winner, Makfi. Now Makfi wasn't up there with the best Guineas winners but he was decent. I'd say that it was pretty spectacular for a 2yo to be that good already.

I obviously don't doubt Frankel's current ability but I think anybody who sees this horse as a future betting prospect (who isn't on at fancy prices already) needs their head testing. I have usually found that 2yos as precocious as him don't improve much the following season, whatever their size. It's true that he might not need to improve to land the Guineas. If he just stays where he's at then one of the others is going to have to improve a fair bit (hardly impossible though as I don't think Makfi was rated very highly as a 2yo).

The problem though with a horse that's not going forwards is he might not just stay where he is, he could easily go backwards. Horses like Xaar, Armiger (another of Cecil's) SNA, Alhaarth, etc, that put up excellent performances as 2yos didn't just fail to improve, they regressed. I'd say Frankel's best chance of landing another Group 1 will be at the early part of his 3yo season. The chances of him carrying all before him throughout the year, like STS (a horse that made good improvement from 2 to 3) are very slim.
Report reluctant October 17, 2010 12:08 PM BST
once jouralists get a horse

to HYPE...HYPE...HYPE...

DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL...DOWNFALL...
Report reluctant October 17, 2010 12:27 PM BST
:journalists:
Report Kevbetting superstar October 17, 2010 12:27 PM BST
Was happy to lay SNA for 2000 last year as hedidnt have the milers pedigree.  Wont be laying Frankel as he has shown astonishing turn of foot for a Galileo colt.

Expect it to win ****as but it wont be a STS.  Nothing ever will.
Report pedrobob October 17, 2010 1:32 PM BST
interesting Figgis that you have rated as good as Makfi's Guineas already, hadn't got Frankel quite that good yet.
Yes he could regress, seen plenty of 2yo champions do that. Was very disappointed we never saw anything of St Nicholas Abbey, especially being by Montjeu, so Frankel being by Galileo no guarantee that will train on either.  But the Dewhurst still the premier 2yo chmpshp race in UK and history littered with those who did train on at 3 to at least the Guineas. In the last 40 years

New Approach, Sir Percy, Shamardal, Rock of Gibraltar, Pennekamp,Zafonic, Dr Devious, Ajdal,
El Gran Señor, The Minstrel, Wollow , Grundy , Mill Reef, Nijinsky II


Stats wise, Frankel even money to make it. Guess that doesn't make him value if betting for the Guineas now.
Report A_T October 17, 2010 1:34 PM BST
I'm convinced Frankel is just like Zafonic - a 2 year old whose development is well ahead of his peers - and who will maintain that superiority through to next May but no further.
Report Figgis October 17, 2010 2:01 PM BST
Pedrobob, the thing about many of those horses you mention is they were all up to scratch as top 2yos but they hadn't run overly fast. I can't say about the likes of Nijinsky and Mill Reef because they're a bit too long ago for me to compare but even Zafonic's Dewhurst wasn't exceptionally fast, if you compare it to the Rockfel on the same card.
Report .Marksman. October 17, 2010 3:10 PM BST
Despite the title of this thread, it is very hard to find any real hope for layers.
Report .Marksman. October 17, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Do Godolphin still want to win the Kentucky Derby?
Has K. Abdullah ever sold a horse to Godolphin?
Report mythical prince October 17, 2010 3:27 PM BST
this isn't just the frankel to get stuffed in the guineas thread.

this is the OFFICIAL thread Grin
Report kincsem October 17, 2010 3:30 PM BST
Yesterday Frankel beat a maiden winner by 2 1/4 lengths.  The third home is still a maiden.

Frankel's four races.

Dwelt
Tracked leader (3 horse race)
Took keen hold, held up in last
Hampered soon after start, took keen hold, held up in last pair


In the 2000 Guineas he will need to avoid getting slowly away, being hampered, taking a keen hold, and being held up in last (might result in traffic problems).

He needs to be educated to get away well and hold a position.  The opposition will not be as weak next time.
Report A_T October 17, 2010 4:34 PM BST
Guineas'fields can often be weak. Frequently some very ordinary horses finish within 3 or 4 lengths of the winner.
Report caward October 17, 2010 7:36 PM BST
So now the Dewhurst was a weak field, PRICELESS.
Report wondersobright October 17, 2010 8:47 PM BST
lol, can't get away from market principles underperforming, hence 1-2-3-4 of 4/6, 25/1, 33/1, 50/1 - alarm bells of caution should be ringing on that - but equally can't get away from the horse's manner of victory, crowded start, pulling, loose ground, speed figures, etc.
Report .Marksman. October 17, 2010 9:49 PM BST
We must face up to the truth.  Beforehand that looked the best Dewhurst for generations and it was run in a very fast time, relative to other races on the day.  I can't find any solace in the fact that the 2 main dangers "underperformed", because these were going to be Frankel's main rivals in the Guineas.
I was confident that St Nick wouldn't stay a true run mile, and I was proved right.  I knew that Dunguib was overrated, and he got beat at Cheltenham.  But this is different, I can't see any flaws in Frankel. I had already laid him for the Guineas before yesterday's race, and now there is nothing I can do about it.  The best thing to do is to concentrate on the jumps for the next 6 months and see what happens.
Report wondersobright October 17, 2010 11:18 PM BST
Dream Ahead and Saamidd definately did not run to their form.

The 'wrong' horses filled the minor places behind Frankel, so the form can't be rated through the roof, though I am not denying the performance and potential superstar status.
Report Rowley Mile October 18, 2010 12:54 AM BST
.Marksman. Joined: 13 Jul 10
Replies: 198 17 Oct 10 21:49   

I was confident that St Nick wouldn't stay a true run mile, and I was proved right. 



Are you on crack-cocaine by any chance ? I'm pissed and even i spotted what you're after saying.
Report ben10 October 18, 2010 1:01 AM BST
Laugh
Report irish_guy_13 October 18, 2010 2:14 AM BST
f u ckin g hell................marksman. just the st u pidest statment ever.......... i'm going to bed happy now, he makes me feel real good about myself,  je s u s.
Report irish_guy_13 October 18, 2010 2:15 AM BST
really.............. f u c k i n      ba d
Report grendel October 18, 2010 9:26 AM BST
wondersobright Joined: 13 Jun 06
Replies: 451 17 Oct 10 23:18   


Dream Ahead and Saamidd definately did not run to their form.

The 'wrong' horses filled the minor places behind Frankel, so the form can't be rated through the roof, though I am not denying the performance and potential superstar status.


It depends what you deem to be their form, Saamidd's reputation was more hype than substance and his best speed figure from me was only 3 lengths per mile ahead of his Dewhurst run, similarly Dream Ahead was only 3 lengths behind his Middle Park figure (ran in a time slower than Hooray ½ an hore earlier). 

The only standout performance ahead or behind his previous best was Aiden O'Briens Roderic O'Connor who could yet turn out to be a high class performer so to say the form is unreliable because the wrong horses filled the places is very short-sighted
Report .Marksman. October 18, 2010 10:04 AM BST
I must be explain myself to people who, last night, were I either p1ssed or up past their bedtime.  Each of St Nic's wins as a 2yo came in very slow run mile races.  In each of these he showed a tremendous turn of foot to out sprint his rivals in the 2nd half of these races.  All his speed figures in these races were poor.  Aidan talked him up as a potential Guineas and Derby winner, but I believe this was just talk as I don't think he was really regarded as a Derby horse.  It was important that his reputation was inflated by connections, to enhance his stud value.  If you watch the replay  of the 2000 Guineas with an open mind:  Just pretend that you know nothing about the horse.  In this race, he appears to be well placed, and travelling well, then doesn't find much near the finish.  A horse who needed further would have been out paced, and been nearest at the finish.
I was unable to make these points at the time, because I was banned from the forum.  And it was only when I (wrongly) thought that a opening a new account would benefit me, that I could get back on the forum.
Report Figgis October 18, 2010 10:35 AM BST
St Nic's speed figure in the RPT was excellent, if you factor in that the straight was getting slower, which it obviously was.
Report Ballydoyle October 18, 2010 11:15 AM BST
If you take 5/4 Frankel right now you are simply stupid.
Report pedrobob October 18, 2010 11:25 AM BST
.Marksman.     18 Oct 10 10:04 
I must be explain myself to people who, last night, were I either p1ssed or up past their bedtime.  Each of St Nic's wins as a 2yo came in very slow run mile races.  In each of these he showed a tremendous turn of foot to out sprint his rivals in the 2nd half of these races.  All his speed figures in these races were poor......


Speed fig I had for St Nic's Curragh 2yo debut at the Curragh suggested he was already up to Group 1 class with normal improvement.
And his Racing Post speed fig was on a par with any 2yo in Europe maybe bar Canford Cliffs in the Coventry
Report mythical prince October 19, 2010 2:33 AM BST
.
Report metro john October 19, 2010 12:11 PM BST
What did it beat last run? LAY LAY LAY
Report grendel October 19, 2010 12:22 PM BST
metro john Joined: 02 Jan 07
Replies: 1612 19 Oct 10 12:11   


What did it beat last run? LAY LAY LAY
 

ermmmm? ... on the clock? ... every other horse that ran at Newmarket in 5 group races and a heritage handicap on Champions Day ... that's all!
Report geoff m October 19, 2010 2:48 PM BST
anyone recall how many other Dewhursts where run quicker than the challenge.
I think Shamardal from memory.
Report jifftiptop October 20, 2010 4:56 AM BST
I JOINED THIS FORUM YESTERDAY TO HOPEFULLY CHAT TO A FEW PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND RACING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A HANDFULL OF PEOPLE  PFTRADER INC IT APPEARS TO ME THAT TO MANY ON HERE LIKE TO LAY HORSES AND SIMPLY SLAG OFF OTHERS KNOWLEDGE HOW ON EARTH PEOPLE COULD CRITICISE FRANKEL PRIOR TOO OR AFTER DEWHURST IS BEYOND ME.WEVE READ STATS NOW ABOUT FRANKEL WHOM I THINK IS V SPECIAL AND WILL WIN GUINEAS AND CAN UNDERSTAND SOME FOLKS RESERVATIONS OF BACKING ANTEPOST DUE TO 6 MONTH LAYOFF BUT YOU CANNOT LAY A HORSE LIKE THIS ON PERFORMANCE THE FACTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES,,AND THE PROBLEM WITH DREAM AHEAD PRIOR TO DEWHURST WAS THAT HE BT STRONGSUIT WHO DIDNT TURN UP FOR A RACE  AND TINHAT !!!!
Report pedrobob October 20, 2010 11:48 AM BST
geoff m     Joined: 23 Feb 03
Replies: 1410 19 Oct 10 14:48 
anyone recall how many other Dewhursts where run quicker than the challenge.


This century, this has happened in 2009 (Beethoven), 2007 (New Approach), 2006 (Teofilo) and 2004 (Shamardal)
Report mythical prince October 23, 2010 2:16 PM BST
looks like the frankel form wasn't so bad after all Laugh
Report gart October 23, 2010 6:03 PM BST
my major concern would be that he's simply a very good 2yo,
and the advantage will diminish over winter.
bred to be a stayer but not in my eye.
Report ReaseHeath October 23, 2010 6:27 PM BST
yep, one of the 'trees' he beat by 10l at Ascot now a G3 winner.
Report neill d October 23, 2010 6:40 PM BST
:lammer had won a Gr 2 in France b4 today according to C4
Report ben10 October 23, 2010 6:49 PM BST
The winner of that was disqualified though for interfering with the 3rd so it was by default really.
Report mythical prince October 23, 2010 7:46 PM BST
jay..b# Joined: 25 Dec 07
Replies: 364 12 Oct 10 19:05   


I notice mythical prince has not posted his bet
Shocking that anyone can get off over Frankel winning a mickey mouse race last time out beating a 103 rated, exposed rag.

was that the same rag that won the horris hill today Confused
Report grendel October 24, 2010 7:20 AM BST
At Doncaster Frankel beat Rainbow springs by 13l, that horse subsequently was 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, at Ascot Frankel beat Klammer by 10l who subsequently won the Group 3 Horris Hill.

Those are the only 2 subsequent performances of Frankels last 3 races beaten horses, anyone who doubts his form needs their head seen to.
Report pedrobob October 24, 2010 11:04 AM BST
Klammer put up a career best speed fig by some way yesterday, big compliment to Frankel
Report grendel October 24, 2010 5:10 PM BST
I rated Klammer 84 on my scale for that win which is consistant with Dux Scholars ratings this year as I have his best 3 runs at 81,83 and 84. Klammer hit the line 2.3 seconds faster than the impressive Zoowra later over c/d (though figgis would probably say it pi$$ed down in between)

Frankel ran an 89 from me in the Dewhurst but the Ascot race was slowly run and having circled the field and had the race won very early I wonder how much actual effort the other jockeys put in as on this subsequent run's form, Klammer should've finished a bit closer
Report grendel October 24, 2010 5:19 PM BST
...then again after the slow early pace, his finishing time would've been dictated by sprinting speed and speed stamina which only demonstrates Frankel's superiority in that respect.
Report cryoftruth October 24, 2010 5:26 PM BST
Klammer may have run his best race yet in the horris Hill, but the fact is that he paid a huge complement to Frankel.

I am more an more of the view that Frankel is amazing. He was quite disappointing in the Dewhurst. had he not been barged into at the start and become far too free and "buzzzed up", I strongly suspect he would have done another 10 length demolition.
Report grendel October 24, 2010 6:06 PM BST
As disappointed as you are with Frankel's Dewhurst, I rated his win equal to Sea The Stars 2000 guineas win as a speed figure and 2 lengths better than both Makfi and Henrythenavigators efforts.  I personally would take heart from the fact that he performed so well despite pulling hard early for future potential.

I share your enthusiasm about the horse cryoftruth and will spend all winter looking forward to next flat season
Report mythical prince November 9, 2010 6:27 PM GMT
let's bring this baby to the top. can't let it drop off before next may.
Report mythical prince November 20, 2010 8:25 PM GMT
get back up there. can't ever let this one die.
Report PFtrader April 16, 2011 10:51 PM BST
Only fair we bring such an insightful thread back to the top
Report Rondetto April 17, 2011 9:04 AM BST
How embarrassingLaugh

He's better value now with all the will he train on crap out of the way than he was at evens.

I would imagine many of those who laid him will be backing him now to at least save some of the cash they blew laying him.

Won't get beat, simple as!!
Report buddeliea April 17, 2011 9:16 AM BST
umm,i aint sure about him.He is no doubt a bl00dy good horse,but no way would i take odds on for a horse that pulls like he does.He is getting away with it,but can he in the classics?,really not convinced myself.
Report Figgis April 17, 2011 10:34 AM BST
Yes, it was another good performance yesterday but what did it really prove? For me, it was of equal merit to his Dewhurst win. To conclusively prove he's trained on he would've needed to progress from that. Just because the trainer has said he wasn't fully fit many people are making it a foregone conclusion that he will improve, but, in my view, that ain't necessarily so.
Report Graeme83 April 17, 2011 10:41 AM BST
Regardless of whether he's trained on or not, you wouldn't want to be laying him at 2/1. Frankel has a vooddoo doll with the thread starters bank card in the dolls hand.
Report Figgis April 17, 2011 10:45 AM BST
Obviously as Frankel made it unscathed through the winter to win his trial he's shorter now, so the thread starter made a poor value lay, he still might collect on it though.
Report elisjohn April 17, 2011 10:53 AM BST
very silly question to most of you, but how the hell does a trainer know when or not a horse is fully fit etc, i was a better athlete when carrying a bit of exra lbs than lean  i was much stronger, i was a sprinter
Report elisjohn April 17, 2011 10:55 AM BST
p s i wasnt all that impressed yesterday by just looking on the race, could see many of the previous guinness winners leaving him for dead
Report Rondetto April 17, 2011 11:21 AM BST
There are several ways a trainer can tell, condition of coat his weight how much work he's had,how he works with his gallop companions etc etc.

I can see where you are coming from Elis he too a little bit of time to get going but the thing is once he did you could see the class ooze from him. You should note Tom Queally was having more of a job getting him to settle after the race than he was during it.

I'd say if Frankel has 4 gears he won that in 2nd gear and win it he did unlike Canford Cliffs who failed because he hadn't come to himself at this point last season.

Knowing how good and how experienced Henry Cecil is I'd say it's a safe bet the Frankel that turns up in the Guineas will be a 10lb better horse and nothing but nothing will beat him.

Then what will happen is you will come back on and tell us all he's the best horse since Sea Bird IILaugh


I'm a bit ahead of you as I've been saying that since his 2nd race and nothing to date has changed my mind.

This Frankel is very very special make no mistake.

Anyone want to lay him whether it be for 2 bananas to a toffee apple and a box of KFC chicken or just hard cash I'd grab any price I could if I were you
Report Howellsy April 17, 2011 11:21 AM BST
I was one who misguidedly thought that Strong Suit would give him a race. That horse was out the back from the start, and never got into it, so to all intents and purposes he might as well not have turned up. If he hadn't run, what price would Frankel have been? And what is the hype now focused on? That Frankel won a race where he was basically a 1-15 shot? It's not as if he disdainfully dismissed Excelebration. In fact, Queally had to remind him to go about his business. This was the only moment in his career so far that a 6f horse has been upsides him somewhere near the business end of a race, and am I alone in thinking that Frankel looked momentarily less convincing that at any previous time in his races?
One of the slight doubts - and they are only slight ones - about Frankel over the winter is whether he'd have the toe for the Guineas. Despite winning over 7f yesterday - something that only 2 of Galileo's sons have ever done post 2 - I don't see how he has proved his speed credentials by beating what he beat in the way that he did.
If there is a top miler in the race, Frankel is vulnerable, but that's the problem - one by one, the contenders have fallen away, leaving only Pathfork (proven group 1 performer) and Dubai Prince (lots to prove) as obvious rivals.
But is he really a 2-5 shot on what he did yesterday? Surely not.
Report elisjohn April 17, 2011 11:29 AM BST
thanks for that rondetto,there might be a little problem if there is a largish field the draw, has come into play into many guineas, though personally i think there will be a small field, s
Report the lay preacher April 18, 2011 12:08 AM BST
spot on howellsy the race should be viewed as if strong suit was a non runner in which case frankel would have been at least 10s on.
he beat nothing in the greenham and his price being cut to 2/5 is a disgrace.
however i am a big fan of frankel and i think he will hack up in the guineas but i couldnt be backing him at that price .
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 8:04 AM BST
I don't think it's a race to bet on though is it unless you REALLY think he will be beaten?(which would make you misguided). The value went many moons ago and if you missed the boat then you probably want to see him beat.

I see lots of straw clutchers on here. A Dewhurst and Greenham winner who doesnt have the speed to win a Guineas. A sprinter who might not have the stamina to last out in a truly run one mile race. He has beaten nothing as Dream Ahead and Saamid didnt run there races. He has beaten nothing because Strong Suit didnt run his race. How does the trainer know he's not fit? (that one made me choke on my cornflakes - it's HENRY CECIL!) Even Francombe was at it with the sweat between his legs. (who amongst us can honestly say that our arses don't sweat when it's hot!)

The only thing is Frankel keeps winning. Watch the race again. The last three furlongs and just look at how the horse stretches out his neck, puts down his head and runs as if his life depended on it. Watch him stride out in that last 100 yards. Watch TQ try in vain to pull him up.

Don't back him at 1-2 or 4-9 or whatever price he is now. Lay him if you like. Then just watch this marvellous horse do all the talking as he always does. Never any excuses needed with this one.
Report elisjohn April 18, 2011 8:39 AM BST
joniblake, not meaning frankel, just wanted to know how trainers know when a horse is fully fit, didnt really know myself if i was in peak condition and then youd overtrained etc, so id imagine itd be very difficult with horses,but maybe henrys horses talk to himGrin
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 9:45 AM BST
The look of the horse (ie how big he is and how much he weighs). How he runs on the gallops. How much he "blows" after a race. Jockey comments and probably a hundred other things that I wouldnt have a clue about but that a man who has been doing it for 42 years might.
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 9:46 AM BST
It has nothing to do with wanting to see the horse beat. I actually had a few quid on him for the Derby after his Doncaster win, I said after the race he was one of the most promising 2yo Derby prospects I'd seen for a while. Therefore, even though I haven't backed him for the Guineas it would obviously boost his Derby chances if he wins. However, the more I saw of him after Doncaster the more I thought he was highly unlikely to train on, the Greenham hasn't changed my mind.
Report buddeliea April 18, 2011 12:13 PM BST
Their is no doubt he pulls too much in his races,whether he gets away with it in the top races is imo doubt enough at current odds.
Report Kevbetting superstar April 18, 2011 5:08 PM BST
I'm with buddeliea, Figgis and Howellsy - all respected posters who have been on here for more than 5 minutes.  Frankel definitely lay material.  As Howellsy says, if there is a top class miler in the field (and its narrowing fast!) then it will beat Frankel who will be burnt out as they pass the bushes and have nothing left up the hill.  Remember SNA was going to walk it this time last year........
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 6:19 PM BST
So Kev thinks he is a sprinter. Howellsy thinks he is a middle distance horse. Figgis doesnt think he has trained on and Elisjohn is wondering how a trainer knows if a horse is fit or not. Blimey boys - such wisdom!!! Quaking here.

Howellsy - there is a top class miler in the field. They call him Frankel. [;)]
Report PFtrader April 18, 2011 6:30 PM BST
Kevbetting superstar Joined: 02 Sep 01
Replies: 1274 17 Oct 10 12:27   

Was happy to lay SNA for 2000 last year as hedidnt have the milers pedigree.  Wont be laying Frankel as he has shown astonishing turn of foot for a Galileo colt.
Expect it to win ****as but it wont be a STS.  Nothing ever will.

Surprising about turn considering the horse has just proven his wellbeing if you ask me.
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 6:39 PM BST
jonibake Joined: 18 Nov 10
Replies: 79 18 Apr 11 18:19   


So Kev thinks he is a sprinter. Howellsy thinks he is a middle distance horse. Figgis doesnt think he has trained on and Elisjohn is wondering how a trainer knows if a horse is fit or not. Blimey boys - such wisdom!!! Quaking here

Likewise, I doubt that opposing him at his current price will have many layers "quaking".
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 6:45 PM BST
Incredible to see that Timeform believe Frankel would've taken any of the last 5 Guineas on the form he has shown already, this is the problem of automatically factoring wfa into ratings.
Report Viva Pataca April 18, 2011 7:09 PM BST
The posts on here pre / post - Dewhurst, and post - Greenham are a good read. Can't say I've been anything other than hugely impressed every time I've watched Frankel.

However, even though I am not normally a big player, let alone a layer, I do like to keep an eye out for anything which can be backed to lose at evens or shorter. In this respect, the posts of Figgis and others on this thread make for comforting reading.

The rationale against the horse is probably not too sound, slow to jump and has raced choke out in his last two runs - minor worries at best and they are something you'd expect him to overcome, just like he did in the Dewhurst and Greenham. Other good points here about not training on although that's a bold statement to make after his Greenham run. Another point to add is that Francome made an issue of the horse sweating on his hind legs before the Greenham - something else worth considering perhaps?

All in all, I think if the horse continues to shorten (is it a possibility he could go 1.5 or lower?), then a lay in the hope that one of Pathfork, Roderic O'Connor, Zoffany, Dream Ahead or Native Khan are too good wouldn't look a bad bet to me. That would be my rather simple tactic for now - although I will concede that it would be no surprise to see him in by 5L esily, and I couldn't argue with people predicting so. But I will tentatively stick with my hunch and hope for the best.

I should add that I've backed or layed anything in the Guineas but if Frankel gets shorter then I think I'll take him on with the field.
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 7:34 PM BST
Viva Pataca, by not training on I don't just mean remaining the horse he was last year (which was obviously a very good 2yo), I mean making decent improvement. As far as I'm concerned the Greenham didn't prove he had. Of course, it's also true that it didn't prove he hasn't. It could be argued that he just didn't get the chance to show it, slow early pace, horse wasn't full fit, only a trial etc. All of which are entirely possible, however, we are dealing here with a horse at a very short price, at prices this short I prefer more evidence.
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 7:38 PM BST
Fair comment Figg. But we possibly have more idea about Frankel having trained on than any of his main rivals.
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 7:43 PM BST
Jonibake, if you backed him for the Guineas at a big price then good luck to you. The question now is do you think his price is s still too big, just right or too short?
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 8:40 PM BST
To be honest I don't care. I love racing and I want him to win because I have always followed Cecil. WOuld I back him now? No. But thankfully I don't need to. As I said above I don't think it's a betting race now but I respect your opinion.
Report Figgis April 18, 2011 9:04 PM BST
Actually, I've not laid Frankel myself but I will be opposing him. I had a few quid on Fury as I thought he was a value outsider, but the signs don't look promising now. For me, there is only one other horse left in the race with the potential of beating an on form Frankel and that is Pathfork. I've always thought he was the most likely winner anyway, but as I'd missed the best prices I had no intentions of getting involved. I have since changed my mind after seeing how things have developed. Dubai Prince, another horse with potential, has dropped out and the Craven wasn't up to much. Normally I wouldn't be interested in taking single figures about a horse for the Guineas that I haven't seen in a trial but in the current circumstances Pathfork looks a fair price. He looks a most uncomplicated colt and has the potential to be a real champion.
Report jonibake April 18, 2011 10:53 PM BST
Very highly regarded by a very shrewd trainer and an unblemished record against quality opposition. Fair call.
Report Howellsy April 18, 2011 11:31 PM BST
Just like to clarify that I have nothing against Frankel! Henry Cecil is my default option as favourite trainer, and I missed his glory days, as my interest in racing started in 2000. I thought Light Shift's Oaks would prove to be a poignant last hurrah, and it's great that it wasn't. My instinct is always to try to oppose hot favourites, and, let's face it, if none if us did, there'd be no discussion and no betting. Over the winter I backed Zoffany, Dubai Prince and Strong Suit at massive prices to relatively small stakes. After Strong Suit's no show I decided the only other option was Pathfork, after reminding myself of his pedigree and seeing Spinning World in there. With Dubai Prince definitely out and Zoffany apparently off to France, he's the only rival I can now see. Roderic O Connor to me is not a group 1 miler, and Native Khan simply not good enough. Frankel has the best speed figure by some way, whereas I don't have one for either of Pathfork's last 2 runs (Figgis, any ideas?). Frankel has a similar profile to New Approach, who was more stoutly bred on the dam side. If NA could come within a head of beating a top class miler in the Guineas, I see no reason why Frankel won't be good enough to win it, much as I have tried to pick holes. The truth is that there are much bigger holes in every other candidate, with Pathfork the only potential threat. For me, Fury had to take in a trial.
Report Howellsy April 18, 2011 11:32 PM BST
I mean ROC isn't a group 1 miler when it matters - as a 3yo.
Report Figgis April 19, 2011 12:05 AM BST
Howellsy, I have Pathfork's National Stakes win 12lbs behind Frankel's Dewhurst, with his Futurity win just 1lb below that. That obviously is a significant gap but it could easily be bridged and surpassed (unless Frankel also improves a fair bit, then the others have no chance). His debut time was good also. For me, he was at just the right level as a 2yo, not too precocious. It was noticeable how he was rushed up at the start of his races but then was easily restrained, looks to have a great temperament and could be put anywhere in a race.

I'm not bothered about Fury skipping a trial, but Haggas is handling the punters with usual Mushroom Management. There were rumours he was going to miss the race and the betting on here doesn't give much hope.
Report sintonian April 19, 2011 12:23 AM BST
Tend agree with most, but not all peoples, views on Frankel. He is crying out for an extra furlong imo and the way he tanks through his races is reminiscent of New Approach not so long ago.

I had an eachway poke on Rod O'con several weeks ago so hoping he makes the frame, and glady has the assistance of Ryan Moore, but Frankel has the Guineas sewn up and i'd be looking at what odds are available for him to win by 2 lengths +.
Report buddeliea April 19, 2011 7:44 AM BST
I wont be laying,i never lay horses,im just an old fashioned backer.And no way would i back a horse in a classic who pulls like he does at such a short price.
Like i say if he gets away with it then fair enough,he certainly is a good un alright,and it could be that he is so much better that it wont matter how much he pulls,but i cant back him at those odds,no way.
I shall probably just watch or maybe play ew on the day if something attracts me.
Report geoff m April 19, 2011 9:17 AM BST
I dont think Frankels overall timefigure on Saturday was anything sparkling(havent looked @ it in depth)due to the early dawdle
but the only sectional I could get  reasonable accuracy on was where the rails on the straight course end @ the junction with the round course about 5furlongs form home where Frankel was the only horse to break 59(58:31) seconds Rimth(59.56) was the only other up the stright course on Saturday to break a minute.
Frankels sectional was approx 1.5 seconds quicker.
Report PFtrader May 1, 2011 12:03 AM BST
We can sign this thread off by confirming that he wasn't the lay of the century after all.
Report morpteh mackem May 2, 2011 10:03 AM BST
indeed, he was probably the back of the century.
Report geoff m May 2, 2011 11:25 AM BST
just hope OP has very small feet.
Report mythical prince May 2, 2011 9:48 PM BST
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Report Mayweather May 3, 2011 10:52 AM BST
LEGEND100 - YOU ARE A MUPPET! THANKS FOR THE MONEY LOL
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