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Frankel to get stuffed in the Guineas (Official Layers Thread)
Frankel to get stuffed in the Guineas (Official Layers Thread)
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Replies: 122
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As disappointed as you are with Frankel's Dewhurst, I rated his win equal to Sea The Stars 2000 guineas win as a speed figure and 2 lengths better than both Makfi and Henrythenavigators efforts. I personally would take heart from the fact that he performed so well despite pulling hard early for future potential.
I share your enthusiasm about the horse cryoftruth and will spend all winter looking forward to next flat season |
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let's bring this baby to the top. can't let it drop off before next may.
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get back up there. can't ever let this one die.
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Only fair we bring such an insightful thread back to the top
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How embarrassing
 He's better value now with all the will he train on crap out of the way than he was at evens. I would imagine many of those who laid him will be backing him now to at least save some of the cash they blew laying him. Won't get beat, simple as!! |
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umm,i aint sure about him.He is no doubt a bl00dy good horse,but no way would i take odds on for a horse that pulls like he does.He is getting away with it,but can he in the classics?,really not convinced myself.
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Yes, it was another good performance yesterday but what did it really prove? For me, it was of equal merit to his Dewhurst win. To conclusively prove he's trained on he would've needed to progress from that. Just because the trainer has said he wasn't fully fit many people are making it a foregone conclusion that he will improve, but, in my view, that ain't necessarily so.
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Regardless of whether he's trained on or not, you wouldn't want to be laying him at 2/1. Frankel has a vooddoo doll with the thread starters bank card in the dolls hand.
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Obviously as Frankel made it unscathed through the winter to win his trial he's shorter now, so the thread starter made a poor value lay, he still might collect on it though.
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very silly question to most of you, but how the hell does a trainer know when or not a horse is fully fit etc, i was a better athlete when carrying a bit of exra lbs than lean i was much stronger, i was a sprinter
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p s i wasnt all that impressed yesterday by just looking on the race, could see many of the previous guinness winners leaving him for dead
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There are several ways a trainer can tell, condition of coat his weight how much work he's had,how he works with his gallop companions etc etc.
I can see where you are coming from Elis he too a little bit of time to get going but the thing is once he did you could see the class ooze from him. You should note Tom Queally was having more of a job getting him to settle after the race than he was during it. I'd say if Frankel has 4 gears he won that in 2nd gear and win it he did unlike Canford Cliffs who failed because he hadn't come to himself at this point last season. Knowing how good and how experienced Henry Cecil is I'd say it's a safe bet the Frankel that turns up in the Guineas will be a 10lb better horse and nothing but nothing will beat him. Then what will happen is you will come back on and tell us all he's the best horse since Sea Bird II I'm a bit ahead of you as I've been saying that since his 2nd race and nothing to date has changed my mind. This Frankel is very very special make no mistake. Anyone want to lay him whether it be for 2 bananas to a toffee apple and a box of KFC chicken or just hard cash I'd grab any price I could if I were you |
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I was one who misguidedly thought that Strong Suit would give him a race. That horse was out the back from the start, and never got into it, so to all intents and purposes he might as well not have turned up. If he hadn't run, what price would Frankel have been? And what is the hype now focused on? That Frankel won a race where he was basically a 1-15 shot? It's not as if he disdainfully dismissed Excelebration. In fact, Queally had to remind him to go about his business. This was the only moment in his career so far that a 6f horse has been upsides him somewhere near the business end of a race, and am I alone in thinking that Frankel looked momentarily less convincing that at any previous time in his races?
One of the slight doubts - and they are only slight ones - about Frankel over the winter is whether he'd have the toe for the Guineas. Despite winning over 7f yesterday - something that only 2 of Galileo's sons have ever done post 2 - I don't see how he has proved his speed credentials by beating what he beat in the way that he did. If there is a top miler in the race, Frankel is vulnerable, but that's the problem - one by one, the contenders have fallen away, leaving only Pathfork (proven group 1 performer) and Dubai Prince (lots to prove) as obvious rivals. But is he really a 2-5 shot on what he did yesterday? Surely not. |
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thanks for that rondetto,there might be a little problem if there is a largish field the draw, has come into play into many guineas, though personally i think there will be a small field, s
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spot on howellsy the race should be viewed as if strong suit was a non runner in which case frankel would have been at least 10s on.
he beat nothing in the greenham and his price being cut to 2/5 is a disgrace. however i am a big fan of frankel and i think he will hack up in the guineas but i couldnt be backing him at that price . |
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I don't think it's a race to bet on though is it unless you REALLY think he will be beaten?(which would make you misguided). The value went many moons ago and if you missed the boat then you probably want to see him beat.
I see lots of straw clutchers on here. A Dewhurst and Greenham winner who doesnt have the speed to win a Guineas. A sprinter who might not have the stamina to last out in a truly run one mile race. He has beaten nothing as Dream Ahead and Saamid didnt run there races. He has beaten nothing because Strong Suit didnt run his race. How does the trainer know he's not fit? (that one made me choke on my cornflakes - it's HENRY CECIL!) Even Francombe was at it with the sweat between his legs. (who amongst us can honestly say that our arses don't sweat when it's hot!) The only thing is Frankel keeps winning. Watch the race again. The last three furlongs and just look at how the horse stretches out his neck, puts down his head and runs as if his life depended on it. Watch him stride out in that last 100 yards. Watch TQ try in vain to pull him up. Don't back him at 1-2 or 4-9 or whatever price he is now. Lay him if you like. Then just watch this marvellous horse do all the talking as he always does. Never any excuses needed with this one. |
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joniblake, not meaning frankel, just wanted to know how trainers know when a horse is fully fit, didnt really know myself if i was in peak condition and then youd overtrained etc, so id imagine itd be very difficult with horses,but maybe henrys horses talk to him
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The look of the horse (ie how big he is and how much he weighs). How he runs on the gallops. How much he "blows" after a race. Jockey comments and probably a hundred other things that I wouldnt have a clue about but that a man who has been doing it for 42 years might.
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It has nothing to do with wanting to see the horse beat. I actually had a few quid on him for the Derby after his Doncaster win, I said after the race he was one of the most promising 2yo Derby prospects I'd seen for a while. Therefore, even though I haven't backed him for the Guineas it would obviously boost his Derby chances if he wins. However, the more I saw of him after Doncaster the more I thought he was highly unlikely to train on, the Greenham hasn't changed my mind.
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Their is no doubt he pulls too much in his races,whether he gets away with it in the top races is imo doubt enough at current odds.
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I'm with buddeliea, Figgis and Howellsy - all respected posters who have been on here for more than 5 minutes. Frankel definitely lay material. As Howellsy says, if there is a top class miler in the field (and its narrowing fast!) then it will beat Frankel who will be burnt out as they pass the bushes and have nothing left up the hill. Remember SNA was going to walk it this time last year........
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So Kev thinks he is a sprinter. Howellsy thinks he is a middle distance horse. Figgis doesnt think he has trained on and Elisjohn is wondering how a trainer knows if a horse is fit or not. Blimey boys - such wisdom!!! Quaking here.
Howellsy - there is a top class miler in the field. They call him Frankel. [;)] |
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Kevbetting superstar Joined: 02 Sep 01
Replies: 1274 17 Oct 10 12:27 Was happy to lay SNA for 2000 last year as hedidnt have the milers pedigree. Wont be laying Frankel as he has shown astonishing turn of foot for a Galileo colt. Expect it to win ****as but it wont be a STS. Nothing ever will. Surprising about turn considering the horse has just proven his wellbeing if you ask me. |
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jonibake Joined: 18 Nov 10
Replies: 79 18 Apr 11 18:19 So Kev thinks he is a sprinter. Howellsy thinks he is a middle distance horse. Figgis doesnt think he has trained on and Elisjohn is wondering how a trainer knows if a horse is fit or not. Blimey boys - such wisdom!!! Quaking here Likewise, I doubt that opposing him at his current price will have many layers "quaking". |
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Incredible to see that Timeform believe Frankel would've taken any of the last 5 Guineas on the form he has shown already, this is the problem of automatically factoring wfa into ratings.
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The posts on here pre / post - Dewhurst, and post - Greenham are a good read. Can't say I've been anything other than hugely impressed every time I've watched Frankel.
However, even though I am not normally a big player, let alone a layer, I do like to keep an eye out for anything which can be backed to lose at evens or shorter. In this respect, the posts of Figgis and others on this thread make for comforting reading. The rationale against the horse is probably not too sound, slow to jump and has raced choke out in his last two runs - minor worries at best and they are something you'd expect him to overcome, just like he did in the Dewhurst and Greenham. Other good points here about not training on although that's a bold statement to make after his Greenham run. Another point to add is that Francome made an issue of the horse sweating on his hind legs before the Greenham - something else worth considering perhaps? All in all, I think if the horse continues to shorten (is it a possibility he could go 1.5 or lower?), then a lay in the hope that one of Pathfork, Roderic O'Connor, Zoffany, Dream Ahead or Native Khan are too good wouldn't look a bad bet to me. That would be my rather simple tactic for now - although I will concede that it would be no surprise to see him in by 5L esily, and I couldn't argue with people predicting so. But I will tentatively stick with my hunch and hope for the best. I should add that I've backed or layed anything in the Guineas but if Frankel gets shorter then I think I'll take him on with the field. |
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Viva Pataca, by not training on I don't just mean remaining the horse he was last year (which was obviously a very good 2yo), I mean making decent improvement. As far as I'm concerned the Greenham didn't prove he had. Of course, it's also true that it didn't prove he hasn't. It could be argued that he just didn't get the chance to show it, slow early pace, horse wasn't full fit, only a trial etc. All of which are entirely possible, however, we are dealing here with a horse at a very short price, at prices this short I prefer more evidence.
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Fair comment Figg. But we possibly have more idea about Frankel having trained on than any of his main rivals.
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Jonibake, if you backed him for the Guineas at a big price then good luck to you. The question now is do you think his price is s still too big, just right or too short?
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To be honest I don't care. I love racing and I want him to win because I have always followed Cecil. WOuld I back him now? No. But thankfully I don't need to. As I said above I don't think it's a betting race now but I respect your opinion.
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Actually, I've not laid Frankel myself but I will be opposing him. I had a few quid on Fury as I thought he was a value outsider, but the signs don't look promising now. For me, there is only one other horse left in the race with the potential of beating an on form Frankel and that is Pathfork. I've always thought he was the most likely winner anyway, but as I'd missed the best prices I had no intentions of getting involved. I have since changed my mind after seeing how things have developed. Dubai Prince, another horse with potential, has dropped out and the Craven wasn't up to much. Normally I wouldn't be interested in taking single figures about a horse for the Guineas that I haven't seen in a trial but in the current circumstances Pathfork looks a fair price. He looks a most uncomplicated colt and has the potential to be a real champion.
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Very highly regarded by a very shrewd trainer and an unblemished record against quality opposition. Fair call.
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Just like to clarify that I have nothing against Frankel! Henry Cecil is my default option as favourite trainer, and I missed his glory days, as my interest in racing started in 2000. I thought Light Shift's Oaks would prove to be a poignant last hurrah, and it's great that it wasn't. My instinct is always to try to oppose hot favourites, and, let's face it, if none if us did, there'd be no discussion and no betting. Over the winter I backed Zoffany, Dubai Prince and Strong Suit at massive prices to relatively small stakes. After Strong Suit's no show I decided the only other option was Pathfork, after reminding myself of his pedigree and seeing Spinning World in there. With Dubai Prince definitely out and Zoffany apparently off to France, he's the only rival I can now see. Roderic O Connor to me is not a group 1 miler, and Native Khan simply not good enough. Frankel has the best speed figure by some way, whereas I don't have one for either of Pathfork's last 2 runs (Figgis, any ideas?). Frankel has a similar profile to New Approach, who was more stoutly bred on the dam side. If NA could come within a head of beating a top class miler in the Guineas, I see no reason why Frankel won't be good enough to win it, much as I have tried to pick holes. The truth is that there are much bigger holes in every other candidate, with Pathfork the only potential threat. For me, Fury had to take in a trial.
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I mean ROC isn't a group 1 miler when it matters - as a 3yo.
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Howellsy, I have Pathfork's National Stakes win 12lbs behind Frankel's Dewhurst, with his Futurity win just 1lb below that. That obviously is a significant gap but it could easily be bridged and surpassed (unless Frankel also improves a fair bit, then the others have no chance). His debut time was good also. For me, he was at just the right level as a 2yo, not too precocious. It was noticeable how he was rushed up at the start of his races but then was easily restrained, looks to have a great temperament and could be put anywhere in a race.
I'm not bothered about Fury skipping a trial, but Haggas is handling the punters with usual Mushroom Management. There were rumours he was going to miss the race and the betting on here doesn't give much hope. |
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Tend agree with most, but not all peoples, views on Frankel. He is crying out for an extra furlong imo and the way he tanks through his races is reminiscent of New Approach not so long ago.
I had an eachway poke on Rod O'con several weeks ago so hoping he makes the frame, and glady has the assistance of Ryan Moore, but Frankel has the Guineas sewn up and i'd be looking at what odds are available for him to win by 2 lengths +. |
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I wont be laying,i never lay horses,im just an old fashioned backer.And no way would i back a horse in a classic who pulls like he does at such a short price.
Like i say if he gets away with it then fair enough,he certainly is a good un alright,and it could be that he is so much better that it wont matter how much he pulls,but i cant back him at those odds,no way. I shall probably just watch or maybe play ew on the day if something attracts me. |
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I dont think Frankels overall timefigure on Saturday was anything sparkling(havent looked @ it in depth)due to the early dawdle
but the only sectional I could get reasonable accuracy on was where the rails on the straight course end @ the junction with the round course about 5furlongs form home where Frankel was the only horse to break 59(58:31) seconds Rimth(59.56) was the only other up the stright course on Saturday to break a minute. Frankels sectional was approx 1.5 seconds quicker. |
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We can sign this thread off by confirming that he wasn't the lay of the century after all.
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indeed, he was probably the back of the century.
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