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cape blanco will destroy workforce
cape blanco will destroy workforce
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Replies: 111
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je bent erg grappig
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with a 20 horse field in prospect the draw is going to be crucial if youre 10 or above you will have a mountain to climb.
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Imo Workforce is still an unknown. You can't call him a superstar and you can't write him off. He's a very good derby winner that was probably not nearly ready to take on the likes of Harbinger in the KG. That run was too bad to be true. We shall see. I hope he runs just to see if he is capable of putting in a derby like performance again.
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It's just and outside chance, 14-1(ridiculous price currently) imo but workforce was always fancied to give his best running on ground with a bit of give, given his running style. Not a dark horse at 6-1 but a dark horse all the same.
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Figgis, Cape Blanco failed to produce a speed fig of note when winning in soft ground at 2, including the Group races he won, they were well below par. If the ground is genuine soft at Longchamp, think his chances have disappeared, as mentioned previously think a 7-8lbs better horse at 10f and just won't see the trip out at this level.
If Stoute lets Workforce take his chance after all the deliberation, think that will be a big hint in what could be a substandard Arc. George Rimaud has played down the chances of the French including Behkabad. Forgive Workforce the King George blip, and he would be a very short price fav here coming off the back of record breaking Derby win. No other horse in this field has achieved anything remotely like that and just praying not a one-hit wonder. |
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Pedrobob, Sea the Stars failed to produce a decent speed figure as a 2yo on any ground, although his debut time was promising. You might be right about CB but his 2yo performances on soft ground don't tell us for certain.
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Pedrobob, I also believe that Workforce's Derby time was misleading if taken at face value, it was ok but hardly great, Behkabad and Planteur have run slightly faster imo.
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Anyone believe like me that Cape Blanco is being used as a pacemaker for Fame and Glory? I can see a Melbourne Cup scenario as the two go to the front early with Murtagh committing at the top of the straight (before Planteur comes and chases him home)..
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Figgis, not sure how you can describe Workforce's Derby ok as not great. He broke the track record and even giving allowance for the ground being officially Good To Firm (watering always ensures anything but lightning ground), and even further allowance for the rail presumably being moved to innermost alignment (but would be the same for most Derbies?), time was over 2 seconds faster than any race run over the trip on my records since 2001.
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Pedrobob, I know what you're saying and can easily see how it can be interpreted as such. I still maintain that there is occasionally a race on a card that is out of step with the others by being much quicker. This is hard to prove but I'm positive it's true from my results. It's only my opinion but that is what I believe happened with this year's Derby. Workforce looked impressive due to the winning distance but nothing about the overall way he ran against ordinary opposition was in keeping with an outstanding time performance imo. If At First Sight had gone on to prove himself better than I thought I would've revised my opinion, but he hasn't.
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I mean out of step where conditions are more conducive to a faster time, rather than the abilities of the horses.
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yes, agree At First Sight finishing 2nd having managed to kick away from the field holds the form down.
But I thought the overhead shot showing Workforce taking many lengths out of the rest of the field in just space of 100 yards after Tattenham Corner was visually very impressive, and if someone could do a sectional time of that part of the race, think would show him to be an outstanding horse. |
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Things not looking good for Cape Blanco or Fame and Glory for that matter. Both are in danger of not running if the weather deteriorates.
When you hear things like that it doesn't say much for their chances if they do turn up as the ground is very very soft already. Total confusion at the moment and betting anything has to be risky. |
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Rondetto - I take it you rode the course this morning as how else would you know the ground is already 'very very soft'?
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06Jun10 Chantilly ( 11 Sft ,RPR105 )
We had a nice position turning into the straight. He stayed on but didn't quicken - Johnny Murtagh; This horse loves fast ground and Johnny just said he didn't pick up in the ground - Aiden O'Brien 04Sep10 Leopardstown ( 10 Gd ,RPR127 ) We've always thought that today's trip is probably his ideal distance. Seamie gave him a great ride. He let him get into that big rhythm and the horse showed all his class and determination.-A P O'Brien, trainer Given AOB's comment above,still don't understand why AOB is running the horse over 12f on soft ground when the 10f Champion stakes is his race, or even the BC? |
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Sandown, probably because O'Brien tailors his comments to suit the occasion?
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Figgis
Are you sure your glasses are not just a little rose-tinted? The jockey said he didn't like the ground at Chantilly. His 10f RPR's are best at 10f. The sectionals show that he doesn't quite get home over 12f. I'd be surprised if he even runs. |
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Bekherbad for me, he won't chase the pace and will come home best with Planteur following him in again, think there might be a few short runners in this at the trip, the likes of Lope De Vega and Cape Blanco, F&G should place if the pace is quick enough. They might be sacrifising Cape Blanco to win an Arc and save the year to an extent, if CB goes of at 5's I might lay him.
They need a KG, Irish champion or Arc to justify keeping F&G in training. If he doesn't win this weekend they've just got another heavy ground Irish Derby winner ala SOF, anyone who backs F&G this weekend at least knows that they have a horse running for its life and that there is no other day. |
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His RPR's are best at 10f
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Sandown
I haven't backed him yet and even if I do it's not a bet that I'll be lumping on, so I have no reason to view him anything other than realistically. Do you really believe most trainer and jockey excuses for their horse when it runs deplorably bad? Didn't the Stoute camp say the ground was too fast for Workforce after the KG? I have to say that is absolute boll0cks after the evidence of Epsom and there are countless other examples. I take no notice of RPR's and don't believe you use them seriously. The evidence of your sectionals will only be valid if you have a proper handle on the merits of the overall times. In my view you're wrong to rate the Dante much higher than the Irish Derby. You may be right about him not being able to repeat the Irish Champion performance over 12f. Even I have doubts about whether he'll be ready to do it again so soon, whatever the distance. However, I also feel there are doubts about runners shorter than him in the betting, including the fav, so for me, if he runs, he offers better value. |
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Re the Irish Derby, I think CB would beat any of the horses in that at any trip on any ground, just an intrinsically better horse, I'm going to be embarassed if he wins on Sunday
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workforce has no chance if it comes up fast at longchamp .
the fast ground was his undoing in the king george. stoute has already stated he won the derby in spite of the going. cape blanco has no chance whatever the going had too hard a race last time out. the winner of the arc will come from one of the horses that has been laid out for it all season.i.e. behakabad fame and glory planteur etc. |
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I'm backing etc!! Dont fancy the other two!![;)]
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lol.
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TLP, in the Derby Workforce broke the track record in spite of the going? You must thing he'd be a pretty amazing horse then if he gets ground he likes?
Were Dylan Thomas and Sea The Stars laid out for the race iyo? |
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* think
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Really strange decsion to run Cape Blanco on that ground - surely he'd have been favourite for the Champion Stakes and/or the Breeders Cup Turf.
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is cape blanco still the best 3-y-0 in the world
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teflontom 18 Sep 10 15:48
I have said this many times Workforce WILL NOT WIN ANOTHER RACE!!!! Masterminded 18 Sep 10 21:39 What kind of ignorant statement is that? ^ teflontom 19 Sep 10 10:21 Exactly why is that an ignorant statement? Recent record of Stoute Derby winners has been exceptional hasn't it? Workforce is apparently always burning up the gallops but has put in one performance of note on a track that horses either perform on or not!! His HYPE far out way his achievements.Had he been a Ballydoyle animal you and others on here would be saying pretty much this would you not? In answer this is why it was an ignorant statement. You totally wrote a horse off from winning another race and it goes on to win the Arc. |
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So I was wrong!!! Not the first time and I am sure it wont be the last!!!
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surely "outweigh" [;)]
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