Horse Antepost
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cape blanco will destroy workforce
cape blanco will destroy workforce
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why the recent strong support for CB in the Arc then if your 10f statement is correct !
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What support for CB ?
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Don't know about the support but O'Brien has already said they're looking to run both in the Arc.
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I think he's a fascinating contender, and have backed him accordingly. I don't like reading races backwards, but my nagging doubt
is how ordinary he was made to look by Harbinger in the King George. Big difference I know between Ascot in July and Paris in October, but there has never been much suggestion that Cape Blanco ran markedly below form as well as Workforce. That said, he was coming off a poor run at Chantilly, so it isn't beyond the bounds of possibility that he was still "on his way back" as it were. Fingers crossed, because I am in the minority in believing he's much better suited by 12 furlongs over 10. |
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I think he'll run in the Champion Stakes, O'Brien acknowledges he's better at 10f and they have F&G for the Arc. Rip runs on Saturday, why race these horses against each other when one could keep them apart, I'd be very surprised if CB shows up in Longchamp. I'm not completely up to date on quotes but I'd guess O'Brien said something to the effect it was under consideration like he does about everything. I'd imagine the money has come due his impressive performance at leopardstown rather than anything else
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Here's what i think they will do
Cape Blanco - Champs stakes & BC Classic RVW - QEII & BC Mile F&G - Arc & BC Turf |
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It's no surprise that O'Brien said the horse is better over 10f, it gives him a nice excuse for the defeat in the KG and the less impressive win in the Irish Derby, also it helps to reinforce his stud value. Yes they've got F&G for the Arc but his performances this year have been no better than last season, he's been better prepared for the race this time but I doubt they see him as nailed on, giving wfa to some decent French 3yos. On the other hand they have a 3yo who would be going into the race on the back of the best performance of its career, form a bit stronger than anything shown by the French 3yos. The horse is already proven at the trip (even if some feel he's better at shorter). If CB shows his usual sparkle leading up to the race it's a no brainer.
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personally, I think the level of form he has shown at 10f is much higher, he's out of a sprinter and I would actually agree with AOB when he says he gets 12f on guts. He is a very quick horse. He even has an entry in the QE2 on Saturday, I don't think they have any intention of ever running him over 12f again. It isn't as commercially rewarding as the alternative options and I'd be astounded if he wasn't outstayed by something.
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Racing handily over 9 of ten furlongs is the way to go with him
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The level of form of his last race is higher than any of his other form, including his York win at 10f, so it's very possible that he's just an improved horse, regardless of the trip.
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Possible, but there are few enough horses that show his speed and stay 1m4f well, not sure if the way that French races are run will neccessarily suit him either. I think he's a ten furlong specialist
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I wouldn't hold to much in his QE2 entry,have we all forgotten about Galileo's entry in the July Cup?It's all Ballydoyle's bull-muck they are always pretending they have "so much natural speed",hype for their next job,they must think breeders are as thick as muck!
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This colt stays 12f well - and showed it in both the Irish Derby and the KG.
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Did he stay in the KG?
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YES!
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Did he stay in the KG?
Of the horses who raced behind him in the KG only Harbinger improved his position relative to Cap Blanco so yes he stayed very well. Agree with PD the QEII entry is a bluff - part of Ballydoyle's "Listen Ritchie this horse has so much speed" marketing strategy. |
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I don't think he ran on past much in the Irish Derby, tbh, Jan Vermeer possibly didn't stay, I don't rate Monterosso and I believe that he is just intrinsically a better horse than Midas Touch and that he would beat that horse at any distance below 1m4f. AOB is right he gets it on guts, he just plugged on at the Curragh as he did in the King George except this time he wasn't racing against garbage. I don't think he'd win the Arc even if he showed up. One could reasonably say he stays it but he is better at 1m2F. This horse has a high cruising speed and is a 1m2f grinder, thats where he's best left. Remember New Approach in the Champion Stakes this lad could do the same if allowed line up.
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CB is another Vision d'Etat. Good enough to win at 12f but all his best performances at 10f. Would CB supporters argue that VD'E could put up a PB running in the Arc? Don't think so.
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Sandown, only his latest 10f performance was his best, unless you believe Workforce was anywhere near top form at York?
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Even on a line through the time compared to Sariska at York, he comes off slightly worse than her. I think it can be safely said his latest run was better than anything Sariska ever did. Maybe he will prove to be better at 10f but a lot is being assumed here on the basis of flimsy evidence.
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Cape Blanco got 2 big negatives for the Arc: patently obvious he is better at 10f than 12f and secondly not been trained for the race. Been on the go since April/May, had no break and he is no See The Stars.
Doesn't look good for Fame And Glory if Coolmore running Cape Blanco as well, the scattergun approach only comes out when they don't fancy any 1 particular runner, unless they think they need a pacemaker. And clearly neither of these 2 are pacemakers. |
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Pedrobob, why is it patently obvious?
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O'Brien ran 4 the year Dylan Thomas won, admittedly 2 were pacemakers.
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Figgis, apart from own figs suggesting his best 2 performances have been in the Dante and the Irish Champion:
1.his tank looked to have run dry in the Irish Derby where his class got him through against the likes of Midas Touch who he surely has a greater superiority than 1/2 length, and Monterosso just 3 lengths. I rated this win below his Dante and Irish Champion wins, and he was all out (and probably decelerating) at the Curragh, whereas still running on strongly at the end of the 10f events. 2. in the King George, he finished only 12 lengths in front of the complete non-stayer Confront, who has been well beaten twice since. Confirming to my eyes that those behind HArbinger were all, to some degree, below par. Cape Blanco still clocked a fair figure, 2-3lbs above his Irish Derby win, but still below his 10f wins. 3. this must be the first time I can remember that the Dante winner (and one apparently staying on strongly) ducked Epsom for the French Derby. This seems to suggest that O'Brien always had doubts about this horse lasting a fast run 12f. When we look back with hindsight at what O'Brien sent to Epsom (At First Sight, hastily prepared Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch), it's amazing that O'Brien never sent the best of the four, Cape Blanco, to Epsom, for the prize that the Coolmore breeding operation treasure the most. All that said with hindsight of course, and maybe they never considered Cape Blanco the best of the group at the time. |
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Pedrobob, I agree he was below par in the KG but he went there after a hard race at the Curragh. His Dante win was a good few pounds below his latest effort, with not a great deal of difference between that and his Irish Derby win. Don't you think he might just have improved since? It's many years ago now, but I remember Suave Dancer putting up a similarly improved performance in the Irish Champion.
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Having watched the Irish Derby video a few times, it was hardly a case of CB cantering all over them at the 10f pole and then just scraping home over the last 2f, he was already being asked for an effort at that stage.
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I think the Aga Khans horse will win the Arc he does'nt invest in rubbish.
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definitely agree Cape Blanco improved last time, by around 6lbs. Guess the question then is will this be maintained over 12f?
As you pointed out, he had a hard race at the Curragh, and yes, can also agree that may have required longer time to recover than was allowed before the King George. But can't get out of my mind the way he struggled home at the Curragh (where I thought he would win) against clearly inferior rivals, who he would surely beat further over 10f. The likes of Midas Touch and Monterosso have won at 10f themselves this season, but they wouldn't be in the same league as Rip, Twice OVer etc who were beaten 6-7 lengths last time, though admittedly they themselves looked below par and the jocks may have been asleep letting Heffernan loose up front. |
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I have his latest win 11lbs better than anything he did before, so while I'm not ruling out it was a return to 10f that helped the improvement, I'm more inclined to believe he's just improved anyway, regardless of the distance. I also think that instead of excuses being made for those behind him last time, the way he was ridden would have been to their advantage and he might even be capable of running a pound or two quicker if ridden with more restraint(which surely he will be if running in the Arc). I'm not too worried about him not aving a break, as his latest improvement is so big. My only concern would be that he's not recovered in time, which sometimes isn't apparent on the home gallops, but if they're happy enough with him then I'll certainly be backing him.
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My only concern would be that he's not recovered in time, which sometimes isn't apparent on the home gallops, but if they're happy enough with him then I'll certainly be backing him.
V.Strange statement imo |
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What's strange about it?
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Figgis
The problem with CB's case for winning the Arc is that he put up best performance (+11 lbs on your figs) using tacics over 2f shorter that if used in the Arc would see him not even being placed let alone winning. So your best bet is that it is a slowly-run Arc with him using his speed at the end. The problem is that this year a number of the probables are proven stamina horses (F&G, Behkabad, Workforce) and with their connections its likely that a strong pace will be on. If left for a very late run he will find a few others (Sarafina, youmzain) also being ridden that way and luck in running will be needed.I suspect that Planteur will aslo be ridden to come late as there is a suspicion that he doen't quite get the trip when up with the pace.On balance, his odds should be double figs and his price maybe 15.0 ish. |
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Figgis, just rechecked, I had 9lbs improvement on previous best, so nearer your fig. Gl if you supporting him, still hoping that Workforce will show his true colours on the day.
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Sandown
Do you really believe it was the tactics employed that enabled him to run to that mark? |
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And surely the luck in running will apply to any of the held up horses (even more so imo as they're not as good as CB) so should they also be double figures?
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Figgis
He may have improved - in fact I'm sure he did. But that just makes it more likely that 10f ridden that way were factors in that improvement, and it wasn't just about physical improvement. |
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Soft ground would be against CB because he has a clear-cut straight legged top of the ground action and would be a further considerable doubt added to distance concerns. Why is AOB running him if he is fully satisfied with F&G and given that the Champion Stakes in 2 weeks is a better option?
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Sandown, French descriptions of soft ground very rarely match up with our descriptions. CB handled yielding ground perfectly well last year, although obviously over a shorter trip. O'Brien ran SOF and Dylan Thomas in '07, with SOF being the more fancied and the mount of Murtagh. I'd say he's running them both simply because it's an opportunity too good to miss. In fact if he swerved the race with CB I'd be more inclined to oppose him in the Champion Stakes as I reckon it could only be because the horse wasn't showing the right signs.
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Figgis
I certainly agree with your view about French ground descriptions and there is the fact that the 10 metres of saved ground against the far rail does help the ground to ride faster on the day but there is no denying that at present they have had a lot of rain, they consider it to be soft at present and there is plenty of rain forecast for the weekend. CB may have gone on softer ground in the past but if he is not better on fast ground then I'm a Dutchman!  |
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I always wondered what happened to Van der Wheil!
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