Looking at the pattern for recent years it seems the 2000 Guineas is working out to be the best Derby trial. Sir Percy, New Approach and Sea The Stars 3 of the last 4 winners, and the second in Authorized's Derby Eagle Mountain ran well in the Guineas

Looking at St Nicholas Abbey, its obvious how highly Ballydoyle rate him. They wouldn't have ran him at Newmarket had they thought he couldn't win it, but as it turns out he was outpaced and still ran creditably despite that. The Derby always looked to have been the long term plan, and there was no doubt his ability as a two year old.

APOB's weren't running that well around Guineas time if I recall correctly  so it was a massive effort imo

I've not seen any horses in the other Derby trials yet that made me think they were up to Derby class, and Workforce, as good as he looked on his debut still hasn't achieved much and looks a bit of a hype job imo.

However the Dante looks to be the strongest trial by some way, so as yet, i'm holding fire on SNA, although it looks ever increasingly that he will be getting my cash

gl

Hey Am

In an average year, he'll need to be a timeform 130+ horse. At the moment we have his best form in the RP which I do not believe.I am quite sure he drafted off the others, so the form is menaingless. The 2000 6th was OK but at 5/4 THEY thought he would do better. This on its own is a very strong pointer to future failure at all levels, i.e.beaten when heavily backed. His other notable run was when beating the very Layali something.I watched that race and he made heavy weather given he was 5/2 on. He has shown me nothing which suggests he will be 130+ in the next few weeks and though he could be the probabilities say he won't be (how many horses are?). In all a lay at 7/2 and a back at 7/1. GL

Thanks Zilzal for pointing out that St nick has a whopping great unwieldy '6' next to his name.
Not the mark of a Derby winner.

Sure he could win and sure he could be special BUT we went through this last year with Rip Van Winkle.

He couldn't even beat his stable let alone win off the back of a Guineas flop.  What makes St Nick different?
It's 8 YEARS since Aidan won this and he couldn't even win it with an Arc winner, that 'they' let go off 25/1?

So yes, 'Ballydoyle' i've just started following horse racing and know nothing.  Lump into St Nick have a great day.  FFS

Brian Boru

well thats the closest thing to a derby winner...that i've seen so far this season...

Cape Blanco, 5/1 to win today and 6/1 to win the Derby. Makes no sense at all. Duly laid at 6/1.

Although I re-iterate my above statement regarding SNA

The 6/1 assumes

(1) That if you run today's race 1000 times, the winner would never lose.
(2) The quality of today's race is superior to all other races in which any of the runners have run (not only the trials).

They may both be true but the odds in not in favour. 6/1 is as idiotic as the 7/1 Workforce laid yesterday.

(1) That if you run today's race 1000 times, the winner would never lose.

Of course not, but you can only run that race once, and he did it very nicely, and deserves his place in the market

(2) The quality of today's race is superior to all other races in which any of the runners have run (not only the trials).

Apart from possibly the 2000 Guineas, i'd say it was some way the best 3 y/o  middle distance race for colts we have seen so far this season



And 6/1 about CB is not as idiotic as 7/1 Workforce. CB is 6/1 AFTER winning a recognised Derby trial comfortably and Workforce was 7/1 AFTER winning only a maiden race



I'm not trying to be pedantic, just think that the price about him at the moment is very fair imo, if not borderline value

CHABAL ONLY WINS FIRST TIME OUT /WORKFORCE MAIDEN WINNER/COORDINATED CUT HAD AN ERECTION IN THE PADDOCK NEARLY TOOK MY EYE OUT/OTHER RUNNER SHOULDNT HAVE ...CAPE BLANCO CROCKED ...........SNA DERBY STROLL

And 6/1 about CB is not as idiotic as 7/1 Workforce. CB is 6/1 AFTER winning a recognised Derby trial comfortably and Workforce was 7/1 AFTER winning only a maiden race

Good point FFT, but that still doesn't change my mind!



LOL at Henry

speaking of times CB was only .5sec slower than Sariska today which IMO lends much weight to his performance

Everone still happy that St Nick is the number 1 hope for the Derby?

As if that makes the slightest difference to which Ballydoyle horse will run best...

Is coordinated cut gay? an erection in a paddock full of colts FFS

Looks like Chabal will get his chance at Epsom. Agree with the trainer about the ground being too fast for him at York. IF he shows his earlier form he still has a chance and was never going at York.



BIN SUROOR UPBEAT ON CHABAL

By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport

Saeed bin Suroor is confident Chabal can still show his true colours at Epsom next month following his disappointing display in Thursday's Dante Stakes at York.

The former Jim Bolger inmate was sent off favourite for the recognised Derby trial following success on his Godolphin debut at Sandown, but he trailed home a well beaten fourth of the five runners.

Bin Suroor feels the quick ground that prevailed on the Knavesmire was the main cause of his downfall and a tilt at Classic glory in the Investec Derby remains on his radar.

"In his last piece of work before York, Ted Durcan rode him in a gallop at Newmarket and it was really good," said bin Suroor.

"I was shocked to see the horse run so bad but his best form is in softer ground and it was too fast for him.

"The next morning the horse was healthy, sound and he ate his feed.

"I'm still happy the horse has the class, he's still in the Derby and it's more than likely he's going to run."

Bin Suroor could well be represented at Epsom with 2000 Guineas ninth Al Zir ready to step up in trip.

"Al Zir is by Medaglia D'Oro and needs a mile and a quarter plus," the trainer told Racing UK.

"The English Derby could be perfect for him as the horse is getting better all the time."

If you look at Azmeel's price there is no way Chabal who beat him comfortably last time can be considered as having less chance than him now after running on ground he just didnt act on at York.

Always perplexing how horses are written off by connections (normally wealthy ones) for a Classic after one under par run. It is as though they actually believe that was as good as they are quite often and didnt meet the grade even though they have shown much earlier they could with a good run.

To be fair it is generally a ridiculous notion that they think they know she/he wont win a Classic so wont run her/him basedon opinion.

Great to see Bin Suroor shattering this notion and showing common sense, it may pay off if the horse who smashed Azmeel at Sandown shows up for the Derby.

History generally follows the one strike and out rule mentioned below. That is the point I am making otherwise more outsiders may have won, generally there has been a 'you are not good enough because of this run' attitude amongst the more wealthy connections which means trial winners are often not re-opposed on the day by a large number of trial victims.

Have always been perplexed by this as there is no doubt there would have been reversals from time to time because horses are horses, have off days like us. We just accept this as being the way it is imo.

Chabal looked a good horse before the Dante,trained like a good horse,form franked by Azmeel,well backed on the day,if you accept it didnt go on the firm ground,there were lots of NR at York,then it must still have a chance in an open Derby,when the favorite still has something to prove.

Think he was being backed because Stoutey was making it loud and clear Workforce wouldnt like the ground and the winner might need the run. Madness to have a bet in that race anyway at the prices with all the unknowns.