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No :^0 found it ;\
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Howellsy the first 2 home last year were fav and 2fav and the year before the first 3 were fav, 2fav and 3fav. On that basis I would be wary about backing anything you come up with. At least until they have picked a horse that you can back with a view to long term winnings.
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im going to stat this years renewal to death and back anything that i come up with :0
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LOL
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What's this Desert Myth of Stoutey's?
Looks quite interesting to me ;\ |
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Does anyone think that Tommy Stack will supplement Noll Wallop for the Derby?
I see he is entered for the Dante. After he won easily on his reappearance Stack mentioned that he would go down the Irish Guineas/Irish Derby route. However, with no outstanding Derby candidate having appeared yet does anyone think he might change his mind ? He's by High Chapperal so you would expect middle distances to suit. |
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Charlton, this thread is about what will win the Derby, not what's the value. Otherwise fair comment tho.
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Fair point H.
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coordinated cut for me was really impressed with his first run this season and looks like the extra 2f will suit unlike a lot of other horses in the market.
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Bit to early to be Trending the Derby, you may get a Commander in Chief unraced at 2, or a Kris Kin, supplymented.
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Send SNA to France, and JV for the Derby.
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Who wins the Derby?
Just to be contrary and save us all a packet, although i'll find it nigh on impossible to follow my own suggestion... how about NOT Aidan O'Brien? All the other stables willl have one maybe two contenders, they will be targeted, tuned to the minute, unswayed by breeding considerations and right up for it. It's 8 [EIGHT] years since O'Brien won one, and of course they eventually will again, but it would cut the analysis down by about 3/4 and shrick the market if you just stopped, said NO and looked elsewhere. Just an idea, like ;) |
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Jair,you make a valid point tbh,i tend to get sucked in to all this.....probably will again though :^0
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I see a brown horse running past other brown horses. ;)
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And me TT, and me
Working out Aidan's chosen one really is part of the fun and he's got a raft of good ones to choose from again. St Nicholas Abbey will go there with all the stats against him and a dodgy prep, Jan Vermeer could be on a completely different journey for all we know, Mikhail Glinka looks like one for the traditionalists (Ballysax etc), Cape Blanco unbeaten, Joshua Tree, Midas Touch and others will probably mop up trials, Fencing Master. What larks! |
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Got Joshua Tree and Fencing Master on my mind at the mo. ;\
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Dibir and Ibn Sina cannot win then
Many thanks Kincsem for shortening the longlist :) |
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How far dubai fantom ? ;ç
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With regards Al Zir....if a medaglia D'oro wins a g1 over 12f at epsom I'll most likely pack it in imo.
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Any news on Burj Nahar?
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jair1970
Stats are against St Nick? What stats? The record of recent racing post trophy winners like High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized going on to win the Derby? Trying to figure out his first string? Have you just taken up horse racing? |
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Ballydoyle, name me the last Derby winner to be unplaced on turf as a 3yo before the race??
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This is assuming he doesnt have another run
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Provided Jan Vermeer is a non-runner, Midas Touch looks the most likely winner to me at this stage.
The Dante may alter that view, but even if we get an impressive winner of that race, 14/1 Midas is still a decent bet imo. |
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Zilzal, with all due respect, that stat sounds like a pile of b0ll0x.
Formwise, in finishing 6th in the Guineas he has achieved far more than most of the trial 'winners', nevermind the 'placed' horses. |
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It's pretty damning tbf, points to Derby horses being brought through the Grades and then culminating in a big race, in this case the Derby (we know they don't usually go on much afterwards either). I think Dr Devious was the last, had to look that up quickly though.
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I can see the angle Ben but I stand by what I said, form wise he has achieved more than the trial 'winners' and 'placers'.
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Yep, but it wasnt on turf and he raced in the Kentucky Derby prior too Epsom, last was the year Before when Generous was 4th to Mystiko.
I go back a few years and i cant ever remember the last one to be out of the top four |
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Most will say formwise he achieved more in the RP Trophy than most of the trial runners but he's ran to a similar level twice in a row now, and that is perhaps what concerns me.
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Thanks Zil, missed the turf bit :)
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Very fair point Ben, but if he runs to exactly the same level of form for a third time in a row will that be good enough to win this seasons Derby in your opinion?
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That is the 64k Question, 3yos can suddenly leap forward and bridge a gap. Another question being do you trust SNA's form at his price, we still have the Dante and the Irish 2000 to go yet, and as much as i was taken by him in the RP, i have this nagging feeling that hes going to be one of those two year olds that cost people money at three.
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I think he will need to step up on his known form, the trip and ground could bring that but it may still not be enough and won't be in my opinion.
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Not sure about his price tbh, I think it represents value but I can see why people think it isnt. The reason I think it could be value is because he has the best form in the race (imo) and is bred to improve greatly for the stiffer stamina test that the Derby will provide.
if he had been given a more traditional prep like Ballysax and/or Derrinstown then I have no doubt he would have won both of those races in a hack canter and he'd be odds on now. |
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ben10 Joined: 06 Sep 07
Replies: 1382 10 May 10 16:21 Most will say formwise he achieved more in the RP Trophy than most of the trial runners but he's ran to a similar level twice in a row now, and that is perhaps what concerns me. Remember the wind though Ben. He drafted for 1/2 the race. Used NO energy. That RP is meaningless form imo. |
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amaru Joined: 14 Dec 04
Replies: 290 10 May 10 16:30 Very fair point Ben, but if he runs to exactly the same level of form for a third time in a row will that be good enough to win this seasons Derby in your opinion? Imo, no AM. He'll need to be better than 6th in the 2000 to win the Derby and he most likely won't be. 7/2 a very obvious lay imo. |
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midas thouch is a gud thing.
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Imo, no AM. He'll need to be better than 6th in the 2000 to win the Derby and he most likely won't be. 7/2 a very obvious lay imo.
Fair enough that you think he'll need to be better than his 6th in the Guineas but why do you think that he most likely wont be C2? As a mile winner at 2 you would expect him to need further than that at 3 which the Guineas run seemed to suggest and his breeding points to him being a proper 12f horse. In my view he has already shown form well up to winning what looks a below par Derby and with the step up in trip sure to bring about improvement I just cant see past him. I get the real strong impression that Ballydoyle think he could be something out of the ordinary too and think they might muller this one on the day into a very short price. |
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Coordinated Cut for me - even if he gets beaten in the Dante.
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Maidstone Mixture spaff
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