That is beyond revolting. Should result in a ban.

Mange Joined: 25 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 30,307 | Blogger: mange's blog
Just been looking up "THE FELLOW".................some horse by the way wiv BIG MACKS Fav jock up

   owes me nothing



Another belter

I can't even spell biostatistics

Haha after timing careers.

What's next, saying you were at Cheltenham in 2011 to see Hurricane Fly. It's aftertiming being at events.

It's OK Desmond. I understand you were completely out of your depth in the discussion so you need to find a way to try bring the intelligent folk down.

Being at a loss what to do you turned to here. Aww diddums

Sure, degrees are easy to come by. These days you just find a suitable "university", pay your fees and they
give you a degree at the end. Where CVB comes from, it might be a bit different. I expect he's old enough that
he actually had to do some work and/or exams. He can spell, for starters, so he must be over 50.

Truly the King of the Aftertimers

Calm down, dear, it's all meant in fun.

Besides I have an open mind and you were on the verge of persuading me that you knew what you were talking about. However, I have a deep suspicion that anyone who unzips their flies and starts waving their 'credentials' around, secretly feels they are losing the argument - so, unfortunately, remain unconvinced.

sageform
25 Feb 14 20:17
Joined:
15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 4,917 | Blogger: sageform's blog
For 30 years I hardly missed a day at the Festival. I had a few big winning years and enjoyed the excitement of being on the lawn on the big occasions but as age has crept up on me, I prefer to watch from home and find it easier to make decisions here than when getting pushed and shoved around on course. The one thing I miss is getting on to the steps near the winners enclosure after a horse I have backed wins or an owner/trainer I know have a winner. The best moments were Salmon Spray, Collier Bay, Kibreet, Best Mate's third GC and Cinders and Ashes, my last decent win on course. I am fortunate to have enough money not to worry about my bets as I only stake small amounts and make or lose more on the stock market in a day than I would lose on racing in a year.




always nice to reminisce especially when the original question was - "what does the festival mean to you"? but a good time to tell us about his famous wins

utter filth as always

Oh Boy. I had no idea you would be so precious about a bit of fun. You seem like one of the good guys and so I thought that if you saw this, you might have a chuckle at your hubris. I suppose if I had a Masters in Statistics, I might take myself a little seriously too, so I'm sorry, I should've taken that into account.

FWIW, the stat wasn't mine, I didn't come with it. And I did give an opinion, which I understand is at odds with yours and, therefore, worthless. My view is that 2/57 is not irrelevant - it's not the be-all-and-end-all, but it's something I would consider when looking at a short priced favourite in a champion hurdle. I would want everything going for me if backing on those terms.

I didn't expand much on that argument, true, but then thread was already becoming a bit cumbersome - I also acknowledge that it is your thread (and an excellent one too), so didn't really want get into a prolonged argument with you. A likely outcome given our opposing views of how to interpret the data.

If you had just dismissed tintims evidence based upon the calendar year being an entirely arbitrary measure of time, then that would've been fair enough. I think looking at recency of last run is significant as it does give an indication of either match-fitness or perhaps an interrupted prep - and you have to start somewhere, 1st Jan feels OK, but then so would 14th Dec or 14th Jan. I would be as interested in that data. But as I say, that was the data put up and you do have to start somewhere. You could also argue the sample size, 57 is a shade small but then CHurdles only come round once a year.

But you didn't leave it there, you chucked in a number of "Yeah but's", Binocular, Go Native, TNO, which doesn't help the analysis, as the "Yeah but's" help make up the sample.

You also dismissed the 33/1 shots in the sample as no-hopers, as they only represent 3% of the book. This is more worrying. I know that it is accepted practice to chuck out the outliers in a sample and 3% would be a reasonable cut off. But it is 3% of the sample, top and bottom, not any horse 33/1 or above - that's a much bigger number than the four that we would dismiss using the correct practice. Maybe you're a bit rusty. Also, two no hopers at 33/1 or bigger actually won the race in that period, I can forgive you Beech Rd as I know you're relatively new to the sport, but Hardy? C'mon....

Besides which, I don't really agree with using the horses SP as the basis for it's implied chance of winning, which much of your discussion with timtin focuses on. Whilst it is true that markets in general are efficient, I think that the championship races give much better opportunity for finding value. Counter intuitive I know, given the size of the markets, but I think that there is a lot more sentiment backing and, of course, a lot more (I hate this phrase) 'mug money'. The CHurdle, is probably the best example of this of any race; say for example Douvan and UDS both win by 5l prior to the Churdle I see Faugheens price plummeting. He currently accounts for approx 45% of the book, but could easily, in that case account for 60%, as money pours in and the books try and slash liability on multis. Other than proving that the Mullins string is in rude health, has the result of those other races improved the horses chance by 33%? I don't think so and in a champion hurdle I would be very wary of using the horses historical SP as a true representation of their chance of winning the race.

So all in all, my opinion, which I know you wanted, is that I am yet to be convinced by your argument that that statistic is irrelevant. Truth be told I'm having trouble with the race, as I really can't get a handle on Faugheen, so any help, statistical or otherwise is of some use. Besides which, I gather he is likely to run in the Red Mills anyway, making this entire exercise pointless

I'm not reading that Essay

mange    07 Feb 15 12:16 
I had a £1 e.w. treb came to £1.000.24

thanks for asking

Surprise surprise, the utter scumbag Mange is at it again.

The cretin is rapidly becoming the worst offender on any forum.

Of course you didn't.
A predictable and pleasing outcome

Hmmm, although that last paragraph is largely unintelligible drivel, CV, I can surmise that you seem to think you've in someway 'won'. Which is odd, as I thought you we were simply exchanging views - well I was, you seem to have achieved your self-proclaimed victory without addressing a single point that I made.
Perhaps when you were studying for your imaginary Masters they taught you that stamping your feet and insisting you're right is the best proof possible?
Anyhoo, since you no longer seem interested in discussing the relevant issue, ahm oot.

C'mon lads, leave the fighting to the eejits on the football forums. This is the civilised part of the site.

Mick Sturbs    11 Feb 15 16:35 
Read your write up Koi and decided to have a bit e/w on Drom  thanks

The OP didn't even tip Drom - Didn't stop the filthy vermin showing up

Oh Desmond you silly boy, can't stop digging can you. timtin conceded that the Stats actually proved Christmas Hurdle to Champion Hurdle horses outperformed their price. Oh poo, you feeling we wee bit silly now. It's ok I fully understand, lots of people like yourself resent others for strong intelligent opinions. It's really annoying isn't it. Don't worry about it though, you're common enough on betfair. Safety in numbers as they say. I probably should let it go now, but I really enjoy putting your kind in their place.

You could just let people discuss racing you know.

Not one to aftertime but...

snap crackle and pop
snap crackle and pop 12 Feb 15 20:58 Joined: 09 Dec 09 |

Got a super yankee up today for the first time ever!

7/1, 11/8, 9/4, 3/1 and 5/2

Rathgorman82
13 Feb 15 14:14
Joined:
18 Dec 14
| Topic/replies: 91 | Blogger: Rathgorman82's blog
Have gradually increased by Ante-Post book year on year until this year. Last year I went there with the thick end of three grand down in advance. Thanks to Vautour (12s down), Holywell (14s), Quevega and Present View (16s), barring doing something stupid during the rest of the week, I was in profit after Present View Crossed the line. Wednesday was good again thanks to Faugheen and SDG, Thurs an even day but leading into Friday I had all-sorts of tasty doubles etc running onto the likes of Bobsworth, Briar Hill and Next Sensation. The day was one big let down and despite me finishing the week well over two grand in profit it was a bit of an anti-climax.
The previous year again I had a good chunk down, Hurricane Fly at 6/1 downwards and Bobsworth 5/1 downwards central to everything. Good first two days, poor Thursday and Friday was an absolute bonanza, think I was on 6 out of 7 winners including Alderwood at 12/1 down.

All the above are the good bits, however, there's the sickeners when you get a non-runner. Simonsig for the supreme sticks in the memory at 16s Whoops or you've mistakenly backed in the wrong race by not paying attention and kick yourself stupid (Grand Crus for the JLT!).

My on the day strategy is hopefully to have all bases covered for the main selections, then armed with a wallet full of tenners, loiter around the tote window before some of the handicaps find some 20/1-33/1 shots that are a good 10pts over the odds. I landed a nice bonus with Medinas the other year and I've landed on a good few long priced winners such as Your Special in the Kim Muir.

This year I've scaled back having spent a good deal of the punting bank, will be going there with about £1200-£1500 max laid out and about £300 to play on the Tote. I don't think I've been down into the ring for at least two years, simply no value in betting with the boards, if you have to there's more value with the firms due to BOG, by whichever method possible.




this came out of the cheltenham bankroll thread, a small piece at the bottom in regards the thread but the rest littered with filth

ye you could pete, its like a whole entourage of filth