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Technically (in terms of jumping proficiency) CCB has looked very good thus far, and it's probably fair to state that the actual fall was down to a stumble more than a glaring error. However, there is no getting away from the fact that it was a very nasty fall, perhaps more to look at, not certain really, but it could easily leave a mental scar.
Having backed the horse at 25/1, I would be more than happy if he were able to get the job done come March, but I'm concerned that his prep, not his ability, will be the damning factor. |
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He didnt touch the fence he jumped it to well, came down steep and crumpled on landng. Hardly think that will linger in his mind.
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He went over on his neck FFS!
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I think I said on the Arkle thread before it was announced I'd send him straight there, I think it's better to have him at the top of his game physically and work on his jumping at home and hope he's not the sort to have been put off by that fall.
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I would be very tempted to have another run myself. Perhaps, as I've said previously, find a race over the water on better ground for him, althouhg there might not be many options.
I've watched the fall many times now, as no doubt you have, and it's not a nice tumble at all; therefore I'd be a little worried what lasting damage it may have done, if at all. The bottom line for me is this. If he turns up at HQ in fine form and unaffected by the tumble, he'll win. I firmly believe him to be that good. You'd have to be relatively brave to be taking shortish prices about him at the moment though! |
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''If he turns up at HQ in fine form and unaffected by the tumble, he'll win. I firmly believe him to be that good. You'd have to be relatively brave to be taking shortish prices about him at the moment though!''
If you are of that opinion, you'd have to be pretty timid not to be taking 8/1 about him at the moment imo |
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I'm gutted i didnt bet this a couple of months back antepost, was looking at it but bottled it...
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if he's not a horse that needs to be going there fresh....he would have to be back on a race course somewhere for a confidence booster.
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ronsk 30 Dec 11:33
Technically (in terms of jumping proficiency) CCB has looked very good thus far, and it's probably fair to state that the actual fall was down to a stumble more than a glaring error. However, there is no getting away from the fact that it was a very nasty fall, perhaps more to look at, not certain really, but it could easily leave a mental scar. Having backed the horse at 25/1, I would be more than happy if he were able to get the job done come March, but I'm concerned that his prep, not his ability, will be the damning factor. duncan idaho 30 Dec 12:20 ''If he turns up at HQ in fine form and unaffected by the tumble, he'll win. I firmly believe him to be that good. You'd have to be relatively brave to be taking shortish prices about him at the moment though!'' If you are of that opinion, you'd have to be pretty timid not to be taking 8/1 about him at the moment imo ------------------------------------------- Which part of "Having backed the horse at 25/1" is it that you're failing to grasp please???? |
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Totally agree Duffy... However, surely there's a race for him before the end of January... That'll give him a minimum of 6 weeks before the big day... The best of both worlds perhaps?
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Didn't he win the Supreme off the back of a long layoff?
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Yep, ideal prep is to be fresh.
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The fact that he goes well fresh is not a debating point, he does. It's whether he should get more racecourse experience after the fall that's the issue, surely?
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Of course it's relavant, if that takes the edge off him he won't win because it's a tough race and you need to be 100%.
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My point is whether the trade off is a worthy one... I obviously didn't explain myself very clearly.
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irrelevant whether you have 265s or 100s, mate. If you are of that opinion, to suggest it would be brave to take 8s now is nonsense
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25s not 265s obv
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send him there fresh as paint then...but **tting himself......be interesting seeing him coming down that hill....with somersby taking lengths out of the lot of em....cue...mccoy launching him at it.....hide behind the settee time.
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I'm more inclined to agree with Ronsk here. We all know that the horse goes well fresh, that is clearly not an issue. However its also clear to me that he doesnt have to be fresh as the run the other day shows which was only a few weeks after his first start over fences. His hurdle form also shows that he is well capable of showing his form when he isnt fresh. For me a run towards the end of January would be ideal all round as he could get a clear round of jumping in, probably have a confidence restoring win to go with it and still be easily fresh enough to show his form come March.
Anyway, thats enough freshness for today imo. |
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I took the 25's BEFORE he FELL... I would happily have taken 25's AFTER the FALL, but not 8's or indeed the 7's that he is currently trading... If he turned up on the day with connections happy, then I'd snap up anything above 4's with great relish!
Get it? |
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I get it, mate....not sure you do if you think he's roughly evens to turn up....more like 1/3
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And still 8/1 with at least 4 firms btw
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1/3 to turn up having had an excellent, uninterupted (hence happy connections statement) Prep??Best of luck with that!!
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Two things put me off CCB..
1. Age - When was the last 9yo to win the Arkle? Since 1990 only one 8yo has won, Moscow Flyer. 2. The fall - Again only Moscow Flyer had fallen over fences and gone on to win in the past 11years(could be longer?). Its a tough call, because he did knock the age trend by winning the Supreme at seven, and he could be compared to Moscow - being a late comer to chasing, but a very classy one. |
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I'm a big trends fan, but not a massive 'Age Trends' fan if that makes any sense? As you rightly state, he's already bucked the SNH age trend, and I can certainly see him doing the same here. The fall is THE worry imv....
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Lightly raced for his age isnt he.
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'1. Age - When was the last 9yo to win the Arkle? Since 1990 only one 8yo has won, Moscow Flyer.'
How many have tried, downallstar? |
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If he were an 8yo, I wouldn't be bothered, but 9 hmmm.... making me question him, I know he has very low miles....
I remember NOT backing him for the Supreme because of the Age & the Lay off - bucked that trend too iirc. Love this race, and trying to figure it out in the build up :) |
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Dunc - about 8-9, can't recall if any were any good or fancied.
The RSA usually has a good few, and none have even placed in that in the past ten yrs! ;) |
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Slight tangent - but in the context of preparing CCB and others for the race, I'm surprised that the Cheltenham pre-festival fixture list only includes one 2m novice chase. I'm even more surprised that only four runners turned up for it (maybe that's why there are so few?)
CCB likely to turn up on the back of a fall with no experience of Cheltenham fences - ultimately neither factor might harm his chances but they can't help! Appreciate most of his rivals won't have experience of the fences either - a bit perplexed that there are a number of novice chases over 2m 5f (maybe an unheralded Arkle candidate will yet come out of one of them). Maybe they're just trying to protect the status of the Arkle itself by not running trial races over course and distance. Back to CCB, not an ante-post backer but which I was - put it this way, you'd rather have a voucher for him with the worry about the fall than one for Osana who alomst certainly proved that he won't be good enough in the same race. |
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It's not some last ditch effort at the twilight of his career though is it? There is no way he could have run in the race before. Also we know he can take on the younger horses and most of them are more exposed due to them having been hurdling for a while. 9 year olds do fine in horse racing in general.
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Not in novice ranks in March Ben! This has been proven time and again, plenty of rising-nine horses do well pre xmas, but tend to struggle at the business end of the season.
I am struggling to write CCb off though. |
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Yeah because they've already been through the novice ranks, it's a once in a lifetime race.
Also worth remembering for very long range stats that years ago horses with his profile wouldn't have had a chance of coming back from his setbacks. |
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Between 76-90 there were seven 8yo winners of the race, but the trends(ie. type of horse going for the race) has changed.
He is def not as exposed as most 9yo's, agreed. |
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Cheers downallstar
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What happens if he falls again??,big price for the CH Hurdle on here!!!
Bit tongue in cheek,but stranger things have happened yer know!! |
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I think you can allow a novice a fall, can be part of the learning experience. entana anyon fell at Christmas yet won the Arkle. Martha's son fell then won QM.
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Surely they need to be given the chance to get the fall out of their system on a racecourse though?
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Of course you can,and it may do some good.Think he will be ok in his next chase,even if that happens to be the Arkle!.
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Sorry for typo meant Ventana Canyon.
Still with Somersby though riding arrangements will be interesting. |