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I am indeed legend, shrewdie that I am.
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if the rain comes i could see it runnin a big race,it would take a bobbyjoe style punt to force it down to 16s imo.Then again i wud havto respect your opinion on this horse!!!
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My opinion should always be respected. I do not tip on here often but when i do my strikerate is immense.
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its all about strikerate at the end of the day! well good luck with black apalachi, havnt got involved yet but i see its a mover in the market.dont think theres any standout horse in the race this year.
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I concur. ba is no world beater but if it comes up soft he has a fine chance and I am happy with my bet.
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me too will win 1200 if it comes in
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what about tumbling dice tgm? ;)
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He has not won a race since December 2005 but a greater concern is will he stay? It looks more like he is running out of steam at around 2m6f-ish. You could argue that he stays on but it looks more like plodding on without ever threatening to get up.
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He is 100% certain to stay. Running out of steam at 2m6? Don't make me laugh.
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Badly handicapped and WILL NOT stay.
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Just not good enough,and yes badly HCPD.Why will he reverse the form with Point Barrow on worse terms.This horse will not win,and has not proved he stays either.Well beaten over 29F twice!!!!!!!!!mmmmmmmmm just cannot see it.Will not be placed either.
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paddy power winners have won one race between them subsequently in the past 12 years
the horse is cursed :0 |
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BLACK APALACHI, a revitalised stayer with some very useful handicap form to his name, looks the perfect each-way in the John Smith's Grand National.
Available at a massive 66-1 at the time of writing, the Dessie Hughes-trained 9yo appears nailed on to make the cut as he sits 49th in the weights on 10st 8lb and therefore needs only nine above him to drop out. Black Apalachi, whose odds are likely to shorten in the run-up to the race because he looks to have a fair bit going for him despite not having won for more than two years. A close inspection of the gelding's form reveals that he lost his way under the tutelage of Philip Rothwell - for whom he won the 2005 Paddy Power Chase over Christmas on only his fourth start over fences - but there have been definite signs of a revival since he joined Hughes' yard for the start of this season, highlighted by three performances around the turn of the year. A close-up fourth in the latest renewal of the Paddy Power at Leopardstown showed he was getting his act together again and, following a similar placing in the Pierse Chase at the same venue, he put up his best display for some time when runner-up in the Thyestes at Gowran Park. The first-time blinkers that worked to such good effect that day were left off for his only subsequent run at Leopardstown on March 2, but the 2m5f trip was too short anyway, especially on goodish ground. In the circumstances, he did not run at all badly to finish 26 lengths behind the winner Well Tutored and within striking distance of fellow Aintree contenders Chelsea Harbour and Slim Pickings (3rd in last year's National). Hughes was obviously using that race as a sharpener and the key to Black Apalachi's chance will be the step up to a marathon trip because he looked a strong stayer when keeping on after trouble in running to finish sixth to You're Special in the Kim Muir two years ago. His next two outings were over 3m5f, including in the Irish National, but he failed to run within two stone of his best form on either occasion so it's highly unlikely lack of stamina was to blame. There were glimpses of his old form in his last season with Rothwell, but nothing as concrete as the three good handicap runs he's put in for Hughes this term. This is not some old plodder we're talking about either - Black Apalachi was a Grade 2-winning novice over hurdles just three years ago and finished a 20-length eighth to No Refuge in the Royal and Sun Alliance that season. The horse's prominent racing style is a plus as it will increase his chances of avoiding trouble and it's not hard to see him popping away near the front because he's never fallen or unseated, over hurdles as well as in his 17 races over fences. He's also adaptable ground wise, having shown a decent level of form on a variety of surfaces, and he certainly won't be inconvenienced if the heavens open. |
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it's hammered down at Aintree for most of the day
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DABO,where was that from?..come on the BA...
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DABO, have you a link to that article.
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the artice is on the at the races website - ante post
http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=264965&title=Ante-Post+Focus&lid=&ref=Tips+and+Analysis&nav=&sub=&day=Sat come on Apalachi |
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Never heard of this guy but that article all makes sense.
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CANT HAVE THIS HORSE AT ALL NO CHANCE
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I will be having a small punt due to the decent write ups here. BA will be punted for fun I suspect on lead up to the day.
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Compelling as your case is maiaze, I must disagree with you. However, you raise some excellent points.
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:^0
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read its form there is no way in a million years that this is a national winner
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Read Silver Birches form and you would never have thought that was a nataional winner!
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Tell me who will win it so. Your line of reasoning is a revelation. Do you write for any racing publications? If not, you should.
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backed silver birch for 5 grand
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Galwayman - your opinions are most grateful - you ain't saying it is gonna win BUT you are saying it has valid claims and 66-1 is massive which you have justified mate.
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dont know who will win but ba it wont be easy to rule out
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kelami a loads better bet at a price
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Well whats the winner this year mai?
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simon
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Why exactly? Your brand of logic excites me. This 'gonzo' racing journalism is the future imo.
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dont have to a writer to know how to pick a national winner
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Can't have Kelami at all. French bred, fell on penultimate start, has only won a 6 runner hurdle race in last 3 years.
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follow one simple rule in the national no horse in the last 50 years plus has finished worse than 7th on his prep run and won the national
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Ah, pin sticking, perhaps this is the way forward maiaze. Your contributions are immense. You are truly a behemoth in the world on National punting.
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No French bred has won in 140 years.
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won 4 grand of rough quest 6 grand minnehoma 4 grand mr frisk 5 grand red marrauder 7 and half party politics 4 silver birch 5 grand bobbyjo 9 grand pappion i know my nationals so listen or not
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Mai - you are obviously JP McManus in disguise!
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just saying at a price kelami a better horse than ba but for me simon the winner allthough i have backed comply or die at 50s and chelsea harbour to
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