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Geoff, mind if I ask how you are playing the 2000?
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downallstar 22 Mar 12:21
Cape Blanco for me. SNA is a lay. Will give reasons later. Stand by this. |
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Down :)
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Charlton not a problem for me. I'm not with SNA. His price is too short still 5 weeks from the race with only gallops to go on. Plus the last English 2-y-o Group 1 winner to win the Guineas was Rock of Gibraltar in 2002, and the last Racing Post winner to win the Guineas, I can remember, was High Top in 1972.
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GL WDW, looks like we're both against him
:) |
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Hi Charlton after seeing SNA in his 1st 2 runs id marked him down as a Derby horse as hed been given 2 nice easy runs over a mile without being woken up by Murtagh & when he turned up prior to the R.Post trophy I was still convinced he was a derby horse in the making & probably wouldnt have the sharpness /experience for the GNS.
What we saw in the R.P trophy changed all that. It was the manner in which a) Murtagh rode him like he was on a machine b) When he pressed the button how quickly he went from lengths down to in front pulling away. It was the short space of time & the ease it was accomplished that impressed & gave the impression he could have delivered that performance over 7 furlongs Whilst the others may well be stayers & not milers they had all won on their previous outing & only a top class horse can leave others for dead that quickly. As there has been a fair bit of ease in the ground on all his runs his only achilles heel imo is reproducing that performance on quick ground in the gns. As mainly a layer I still have him well onside but for financial reasons theres 1/2 a dozen more id like to see beat him but I cant see it happening. Actually outsiders I like @ big prices are his stable companions Beethoven & Alfred Nobel not quite got the class but battle hardened & on their day can run a far better race than their price suggests altho you never know if they are both going to run or French 2000 may be an option |
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jamesp
your analysis is identical to mine. He has more than enough speed and a decent cruising speed too. He will be hard to beat. I also agree with your assessment of his pedigree too. Although he may well get 12 furlongs he isn't actually certain to do so. He does seem to be blessed though with an ability to switch off during his race and then produce his amazing turn of foot, so Im expect he'll be okay at middle distances. On thing about the 2000 Guineas though. The race can be a bit of a lottery when 20 odd turn up and they split into a number of groups. Being drawn the wrong side can knacKer any horse's chances - remember Hawkwing? |
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cryoftruth, I agree - the draw is the biggest danger to SNA in the Guineas.
geoff m, spot on with the analysis. By the way, Alfred Nobel seems unlikely to make the Guineas - Aidan announced today that he expects his Guineas runners to come from the group SNA, Viscount Nelson, Fencing Master and Beethoven. |
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dynasty- anyone know anything bout this horse targets etc
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Thanks a lot Geoff. I will certainly take these into account when finalising my position. Something I should have done after your advice on Zarkava. ;)
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they've mentioned races like the Guineas, Derby etc.
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ok ducan has any amount of scope for improvement can see this being a horse to follow will be value in either/both classics
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you're the man, king jams
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Heres a piece from Johnny Wards Value betting column in last Sundays Sindo, aka Sunday Independent
There seems to be little reason not run St Nicholas Abbey in the English 200 Guineas on May 1 and he is the standout pick. With a view to his career in the paddocks, getting a Classic win over a mile will boost the son of Montjeus profile considerably, particularly as he is bred for middle distances. He is actually shorter in price for the Derby than the Guineas (6/1 for the double) |
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You had a reply covering every base ()if St Nick wins geoff m was right, if he doesnt geoff m wins) .. fook me the blind leading the blind ... Punjabi.
Charlton2005 01 Apr 19:07 Thanks a lot Geoff. I will certainly take these into account when finalising my position. Something I should have done after your advice on Zarkava. |
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Kirk, you make so much money at this game, why do you bother coming on here abusing the small fry like us?
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1 month from today the English Guineas and just one question in my mind - by how many lengths does St Nicholas Abbey win this race - 4, 5, 6, more??
Gents this could turn into a re-run of Hawk Wing's Lockinge ;) |
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4
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if Nashwan and Sea The Stars could manage only 1length and 1.5 lengths, i cant really see SNA winning by 3, 4, 5..
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Guineas winning distances for the dreamers.
kirk st. moritz 28 Jan 20:44 Up to 1 length - 7 winners Up to 2 lengths - 6 winners Up to 3 lengths - 1 winner Up to 3.5 lengths - 1 winner You are extremely likely to see the winner win by up to 2 lengths. In other words there is not much between the top milers each year. |
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soldieroffortune 01 Apr 22:35
1 month from today the English Guineas and just one question in my mind - by how many lengths does St Nicholas Abbey win this race - 4, 5, 6, more?? Gents this could turn into a re-run of Hawk Wing's Lockinge or Hawk Wing's guineas ;) |
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Whats going to beat him them A-T?
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I was just having a bit of fun. I'm sure you recall the somewhat unlucky circumstances of Hawk Wing's defeat.
I for one can't see what can beat SNA at Newmarket. The only doubt I have is if he really needs further than a mile, the race lacks pace an d he gets done in a last furlong rush. |
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Surely Coolmore will ensure that scenario doesnt occur.
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Does anyone have any info about Fighting Brave's plans?
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Anyone at all concerned that the only two horses to be backed to beat SNA are now both 40/1 for the race that he is 2/1 for? You can hear the excuses already as he runs unplaced in the 2000 and drifts to 12/1 for Epsom. "The RP wasn't that strong". Anyone ever seen a scenario like this before? Or I am I just a deluded fool?
:) |
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Torres.
I would assume Fighting Brave will go wher the ground is rattling fast although he ran a cracker in soft last weekend. Its impossible to tell as they have so many horses....some wont run due to the fact they have other horse for races |
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JM
I was impressed with his run last wk-end too,I would've thought Newmarket would be more likely to have better ground than the Curragh or France?? |
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Regarding SNA horses that can win both a Guineas and a Derby are pretty exceptional seems unlikely we'll get another one so soon. More probable that SNA is either a derby horse or perhaps a miler/10f type. Could put up a Generous-like showing in the Guineas maybe?
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horses that can win both a Guineas and a Derby are pretty exceptional seems unlikely we'll get another one so soon
Are you saying that just because we had a good horse last year? Just because we had a good one last year, does Not mean another cant be very good so soon after,but equally it does not mean SNA is going to great at all. |